From SIR to SEAIRD: a novel data-driven modeling approach based on the Grey-box System Theory to predict the dynamics of COVID-19

Common compartmental modeling for COVID-19 is based on a priori knowledge and numerous assumptions. Additionally, they do not systematically incorporate asymptomatic cases. Our study aimed at providing a framework for data-driven approaches, by leveraging the strengths of the grey-box system theory or grey-box identification, known for its robustness in problem solving under partial, incomplete, or uncertain data. Empirical data on confirmed cases and deaths, extracted from an open source repository were used to develop the SEAIRD compartment model. Adjustments were made to fit current knowledge on the COVID-19 behavior. The model was implemented and solved using an Ordinary Differential Equation solver and an optimization tool. A cross-validation technique was applied, and the coefficient of determination $R^2$ was computed in order to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the model. %to the data. Key epidemiological parameters were finally estimated and we provided the rationale for the construction of SEAIRD model. When applied to Brazil's cases, SEAIRD produced an excellent agreement to the data, with an %coefficient of determination $R^2$ $\geq 90\%$. The probability of COVID-19 transmission was generally high ($\geq 95\%$). On the basis of a 20-day modeling data, the incidence rate of COVID-19 was as low as 3 infected cases per 100,000 exposed persons in Brazil and France. Within the same time frame, the fatality rate of COVID-19 was the highest in France (16.4\%) followed by Brazil (6.9\%), and the lowest in Russia ($\leq 1\%$). SEAIRD represents an asset for modeling infectious diseases in their dynamical stable phase, especially for new viruses when pathophysiology knowledge is very limited

Sixteen-Year Monitoring of Particulate Matter Exposure in the Parisian Subway: Data Inventory and Compilation in a Database

The regularly reported associations between particulate matter (PM) exposure, and morbidity and mortality due to respiratory, cardiovascular, cancer, and metabolic diseases have led to the reduction in recommended outdoor PM10 and PM2.5 exposure limits. However, indoor PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations in subway systems in many cities are often higher than outdoor concentrations. The effects of these exposures on subway workers and passengers are not well known, mainly because of the challenges in exposure assessment and the lack of longitudinal studies combining comprehensive exposure and health surveillance. To fulfill this gap, we made an inventory of the PM measurement campaigns conducted in the Parisian subway since 2004. We identified 5856 PM2.5 and 18,148 PM10 results from both personal and stationary air sample measurements that we centralized in a database along with contextual information of each measurement. This database has extensive coverage of the subway network and will enable descriptive and analytical studies of indoor PM exposure in the Parisian subway and its potential effects on human health

Physical activity, screen time and the COVID-19 school closures in Europe – an observational study in 10 countries

To date, few data on how the COVID-19 pandemic and restrictions affected children’s physical activity in Europe have been published. This study examined the prevalence and correlates of physical activity and screen time from a large sample of European children during the COVID-19 pandemic to inform strategies and provide adequate mitigation measures. An online survey was conducted using convenience sampling from 15 May to 22 June, 2020. Parents were eligible if they resided in one of the survey countries and their children aged 6–18 years. 8395 children were included (median age [IQR], 13 [10–15] years; 47% boys; 57.6% urban residents; 15.5% in self-isolation). Approximately two-thirds followed structured routines (66.4% [95%CI, 65.4–67.4]), and more than half were active during online P.E. (56.6% [95%CI, 55.5–57.6]). 19.0% (95%CI, 18.2–19.9) met the WHO Global physical activity recommendation. Total screen time in excess of 2 h/day was highly prevalent (weekdays: 69.5% [95%CI, 68.5–70.5]; weekend: 63.8% [95%CI, 62.7–64.8]). Playing outdoors more than 2 h/day, following a daily routine and being active in online P.E. increased the odds of healthy levels of physical activity and screen time, particularly in mildly affected countries. In severely affected countries, online P.E. contributed most to meet screen time recommendation, whereas outdoor play was most important for adequate physical activity. Promoting safe and responsible outdoor activities, safeguarding P.E. lessons during distance learning and setting pre-planned, consistent daily routines are important in helping children maintain healthy active lifestyle in pandemic situation. These factors should be prioritised by policymakers, schools and parents. Highlights • To our knowledge, our data provide the first multi-national estimates on physical activity and total screen time in European children roughly two months after COVID-19 was declared a global pandemic. • Only 1 in 5 children met the WHO Global physical activity recommendations. • Under pandemic conditions, parents should set pre-planned, consistent daily routines and integrate at least 2-hours outdoor activities into the daily schedule, preferable on each day. Schools should make P.E. lessons a priority. Decision makers should mandate online P.E. be delivered by schools during distance learning. Closing outdoor facilities for PA should be considered only as the last resort during lockdowns

Systematic review to identify and appraise outcome measures used to evaluate childhood obesity treatment interventions: evidence of purpose, application, validity, reliability and sensitivity

Background: Lack of uniformity in outcome measures used in evaluations of childhood obesity treatment interventions can impede the ability to assess effectiveness and limits comparisons across trials. Objective: To identify and appraise outcome measures to produce a framework of recommended measures for use in evaluations of childhood obesity treatment interventions. Data sources: Eleven electronic databases were searched between August and December 2011, including MEDLINE; MEDLINE In-Process and Other Non-Indexed Citations; EMBASE; PsycINFO; Health Management Information Consortium (HMIC); Allied and Complementary Medicine Database (AMED); Global Health, Maternity and Infant Care (all Ovid); Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) (EBSCOhost); Science Citation Index (SCI) [Web of Science (WoS)]; and The Cochrane Library (Wiley) - from the date of inception, with no language restrictions. This was supported by review of relevant grey literature and trial databases. Review methods: Two searches were conducted to identify (1) outcome measures and corresponding citations used in published childhood obesity treatment evaluations and (2) manuscripts describing the development and/or evaluation of the outcome measures used in the childhood intervention obesity evaluations. Search 1 search strategy (review of trials) was modelled on elements of a review by Luttikhuis et al. (Oude Luttikhuis H, Baur L, Jansen H, Shrewsbury VA, O'Malley C, Stolk RP, et al. Interventions for treating obesity in children. Cochrane Database Syst Rev 2009;1:CD001872). Search 2 strategy (methodology papers) was built on Terwee et al.'s search filter (Terwee CB, Jansma EP, Riphagen II, de Vet HCW. Development of a methodological PubMed search filter for finding studies on measurement properties of measurement instruments. Qual Life Res 2009;18:1115-23). Eligible papers were appraised for quality initially by the internal project team. This was followed by an external appraisal by expert collaborators in order to agree which outcome measures should be recommended for the Childhood obesity Outcomes Review (CoOR) outcome measures framework. Results: Three hundred and seventy-nine manuscripts describing 180 outcome measures met eligibility criteria. Appraisal of these resulted in the recommendation of 36 measures for the CoOR outcome measures framework. Recommended primary outcome measures were body mass index (BMI) and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Experts did not advocate any self-reported measures where objective measurement was possible (e.g. physical activity). Physiological outcomes hold potential to be primary outcomes, as they are indicators of cardiovascular health, but without evidence of what constitutes a minimally importance difference they have remained as secondary outcomes (although the corresponding lack of evidence for BMI and DXA is acknowledged). No preference-based quality-of-life measures were identified that would enable economic evaluation via calculation of quality-adjusted life-years. Few measures reported evaluating responsiveness. Limitations Proposed recommended measures are fit for use as outcome measures within studies that evaluate childhood obesity treatment evaluations specifically. These may or may not be suitable for other study designs, and some excluded measures may be more suitable in other study designs. Conclusions: The CoOR outcome measures framework provides clear guidance of recommended primary and secondary outcome measures. This will enhance comparability between treatment evaluations and ensure that appropriate measures are being used. Where possible, future work should focus on modification and evaluation of existing measures rather than development of tools de nova. In addition, it is recommended that a similar outcome measures framework is produced to support evaluation of adult obesity programmes. Funding: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme

Rôle de l’activité physique dans la lutte contre le syndrome métabolique infantile

Le syndrome métabolique est défini comme la présence conjointe, chez un même individu, de plusieurs facteurs de risque (au moins 3 dans la majorité des définitions) parmi les facteurs suivants : hypertriglycéridémie, hypertension artérielle, obésité abdominale, faible concentration de HDL-cholestérol (HDL-C), glycémie à jeun élevée. Il est décrit avec une fréquence accrue chez l’enfant, essentiellement en présence d’un surpoids/obésité. Parmi les mesures de prévention et de traitement utilisables chez l’enfant, l’activité physique apparaît comme une option de choix. Cette synthèse discute l’intérêt des programmes d’exercices aérobies, de résistance ou une combinaison des deux formes d’activité structurée, de même que les activités de la vie courante effectuées avec une intensité au moins équivalente à celle d’une marche rapide

Le conseil en activité physique dans le cadre des soins primaires

Les bienfaits d’une activité physique régulière sont désormais unanimement reconnus par les communautés médicale et scientifique. Paradoxalement, les données épidémiologiques suggèrent qu’une proportion importante (> 60 %) de la population mondiale ne réalise pas suffisamment d’activité physique pour sa santé. En Europe par exemple, la prévalence de l’activité physique est seulement de 29 %. La France apparaît dans ce contexte comme le pays le plus sédentarisé. La participation des médecins et surtout du médecin traitant à l’effort de santé publique visant à généraliser les modes de vie actifs dans la population générale est capitale. Pour une contribution efficace du médecin à la promotion de l’activité physique, cet article s’est destiné à actualiser une démarche systématique du conseil en activité physique simple et applicable en routine, après une formation spécifique : la méthode des « 5A » à savoir : « Apprécier » ; « Aviser » ; « Agréer » ; « Assister » ; « Arranger »

Surpoids et obésité de l'enfant (des méthodes d'évaluation à l'analyse d'interactions complexes avec les facteurs comportementaux et socio-économiques)

Les causes de la surcharge pondérale infantile sont multifactorielles. Mais l'augmentation rapide de sa prévalence semble indiquer que les facteurs comportementaux et environementaus en sont les déterminants principaux. Ces facteurs ont souvent été étudiés comme des entités unitaires. L''bjectif de cette thèse était donc de proposer au travers d'un déroulé méthodologique, une approche globale pour l'analyse des relations et interactions entre différents facteurs comportementaux et environnementaux déterminant la surcharge pondérale infantile. Trois études ont permis de clarifier les problèmes de mesure et d'évaluation concernant la définition de la surcharge pondérale et ceux inhérents aux paramètres des comportements de mouvement des enfants. La quatrième étude a permis de mettre en évidence les mécanismes d'actions associant les différents paramètres comportementaux et environnementaux impliqués dans la surcharge pondérale de l'enfant. Ainsi, le cadre de vie des enfants et leurs comportements individuels vis-à-vis de l'activité physique et de l'alimentation semblent déterminer leur niveau de risque en regard du surpoids/obésité. Sur la base de ces résultats nous avons pu proposer des actions préventives et/ou correctives basées sur l'école ou la famille lors d'une cinquième étude.The causes of excess weight gain in children are multifactor. But, the rapid recent increase in the overall prevalence of obesity in children suggests that behavioral and environmental factors are central to the causation. These factors were often studied as unit entities. Thus, the aim of this thesis was to suggest a methodological framework for a global approach of hypothesized determinants of the phenomenon. Three studies help for the clarification of measurements' problems about the definition of excess weight in children as well as those concerning their movement behaviors assessment. The fourth study highlights the interplay between behavioral and environmental factors in determining weight status of children. Thus, familial environments and individual behaviors with respect to physical activity and eating seem to determine different overweight/obesity risk levels among children. On this basis, we have provided examples of school- or family-based preventive and/or corrective actions.LILLE2-BU Santé-Recherche (593502101) / SudocPARIS-BIUP (751062107) / SudocSudocFranceF

Physical Education in a Thermal Spa Resort to Maintain an Active Lifestyle at Home: A One-Year Self-Controlled Follow-Up Pilot Study

International audienceThe self-controlled follow-up pilot study was set up to examine the maintenance of engagement in physical activity by a group of older adults in a thermal spa resort, as a consequence of the inclusion of additional physical education sessions within their usual care offers. A cohort of 42 participants (70.4 ± 4.5 years) underwent three weeks of thermal treatment with additional physical education (PE) sessions. Measurements were established during the intervention in 2 periods (baseline and final thermal treatment evaluation) and 4 periods of measurements in the follow-up (+15 days, +2 months, +6 months, and +1 year). Physical measures (anthropometrics, flexibility, and 6-minute walk test) and intrapersonal and psychosocial factors as well as health-related quality of life (HQOL) and physical activity (PA) were self-reported by participants. Only HQOL and PA were assessed during the follow-up. One year after a 3-week PE session combined with the usual thermal care, 64% of the participants exhibited a higher volume of PA than at baseline. The components of the HQOL changed during the follow-up. This strategy to maintain PA engagement appears to be feasible in a population of thermal care older adults. This work demonstrates the feasibility of a study conducted to maintain physical activity engagement after a thermal treatment