Convective storm development in contrasting thermodynamic and kinematic environments

The characteristics of deep moist convection in the troposphere strongly depend on the thermodynamic and kinematic environment in which it occurs. The relative strength of the vertical wind shear in comparison to buoyancy has a strong influence on the dynamics of a convective storm, which has implications for its longevity and severity. By means of two case studies, the dynamical differences between storms developing in extremes of the buoyancy/shear parameter space are explored

Ensemble forecasting with a stochastic convective parametrization based on equilibrium statistics

The stochastic Plant-Craig scheme for deep convection was implemented in the COSMO mesoscale model and used for ensemble forecasting. Ensembles consisting of 100 48-h forecasts at 7 km horizontal resolution were generated for a 2000×2000 km domain covering central Europe. Forecasts were made for seven case studies characterized by different large-scale meteorological environments. Each 100 member ensemble consisted of 10 groups of 10 members, with each group driven by boundary and initial conditions from a selected member from the global ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. The precipitation variability within and among these groups of members was computed, and it was found that the relative contribution to the ensemble variance introduced by the stochastic convection scheme was substantial, amounting to as much as 76% of the total variance in the ensemble in one of the studied cases. The impact of the scheme was not confined to the grid scale, and typically contributed 25–50% of the total variance even after the precipitation fields had been smoothed to a resolution of 35 km. The variability of precipitation introduced by the scheme was approximately proportional to the total amount of convection that occurred, while the variability due to large-scale conditions changed from case to case, being highest in cases exhibiting strong mid-tropospheric flow and pronounced meso- to synoptic scale vorticity extrema. The stochastic scheme was thus found to be an important source of variability in precipitation cases of weak large-scale flow lacking strong vorticity extrema, but high convective activity

Anthropogenic Warming Had a Crucial Role in Triggering the Historic and Destructive Mediterranean Derecho in Summer 2022

A record-breaking marine heatwave and anthropogenic climate change have substantially contributed to the development of an extremely anomalous and vigorous convective windstorm in August 2022 over the Mediterranean Sea

Verstening en functieverandering in het landelijk gebied; een onderzoek naar de aard en omvang van verstening in het landelijk gebied ten behoeve van het monitoring- en evaluatieprogramma van Nota Ruimte

Dit onderzoek spitst zich toe op aard, omvang en tempo van woningbouw in het landelijk gebied, zowel qua nieuwbouw als hergebruik. Dit op verzoek van VROM, ten behoeve van het monitoring- en evaluatiebeleid van de Nota Ruimte. De resultaten worden per provincie weergegeven; de uitspraken ziojn gebaseerd op de gegevens over bebouwing en wegverharding uit de database TOP10vecto

Large-scale length and time scales for use with stochastic convective parameterization

Many numerical models for weather prediction and climate studies are run at resolutions that are too coarse to resolve convection explicitly, but too fine to justify the local equilibrium assumed by conventional convective parameterizations. The Plant-Craig (PC) stochastic convective parameterization scheme, developed in this paper, solves this problem by removing the assumption that a given grid-scale situation must always produce the same sub-grid-scale convective response. Instead, for each timestep and gridpoint, one of the many possible convective responses consistent with the large-scale situation is randomly selected. The scheme requires as input the large-scale state as opposed to the instantaneous grid-scale state, but must nonetheless be able to account for genuine variations in the largescale situation. Here we investigate the behaviour of the PC scheme in three-dimensional simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium, demonstrating in particular that the necessary space-time averaging required to produce a good representation of the input large-scale state is not in conflict with the requirement to capture large-scale variations. The resulting equilibrium profiles agree well with those obtained from established deterministic schemes, and with corresponding cloud-resolving model simulations. Unlike the conventional schemes the statistics for mass flux and rainfall variability from the PC scheme also agree well with relevant theory and vary appropriately with spatial scale. The scheme is further shown to adapt automatically to changes in grid length and in forcing strength

Coherent evolution of potential vorticity anomalies associated with deep moist convection

Potential Vorticity (PV) elegantly describes synoptic- and planetary-scale dynamics, but it has received less attention on smaller scales. On the convective scale PV is characterised by dipoles associated with convective cells. We show that the PV dipoles are consistent and associated with statistically significant flow anomalies. Our hypothesis is that there is a coherent evolution of the PV dipoles. This hypothesis is tested by tracking convective cells in the nonhydrostatic COSMO-DE Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model during nine severe weather events. The 3135 convective cells used in this study are representative of deep moist convection over western Europe in the COSMO-DE model. Composites of the evolution of convective cells are made, and differences between “normal” and intense cells are discussed. Even when averaging over 3135 cells during nine cases, a clear horizontal PV dipole pattern can be seen with associated flow anomalies. Compared to normal cells, intense cells (identified using PV, precipitation rate or vertical velocity) have a more monopole morphology, which resembles supercells. The consistency of the PV dipoles implies that PV is also a useful diagnostic on the convective-weather scale

Sex differences in cardiovascular complications and mortality in hospital patients with covid-19: registry based observational study

Objective To assess whether the risk of cardiovascular complications of covid-19 differ between the sexes and to determine whether any sex differences in risk are reduced in individuals with pre-existing cardiovascular disease. Design Registry based observational study. Setting 74 hospitals across 13 countries (eight European) participating in CAPACITY-COVID (Cardiac complicAtions in Patients With SARS Corona vIrus 2 regisTrY), from March 2020 to May 2021 Participants All adults (aged ≥18 years), predominantly European, admitted to hospital with highly suspected covid-19 disease or covid-19 disease confirmed by positive laboratory test results (n=11 167 patients). Main outcome measures Any cardiovascular complication during admission to hospital. Secondary outcomes were in-hospital mortality and individual cardiovascular complications with ≥20 events for each sex. Logistic regression was used to examine sex differences in the risk of cardiovascular outcomes, overall and grouped by pre-existing cardiovascular disease. Results Of 11 167 adults (median age 68 years, 40% female participants) included, 3423 (36% of whom were female participants) had pre-existing cardiovascular disease. In both sexes, the most common cardiovascular complications were supraventricular tachycardias (4% of female participants, 6% of male participants), pulmonary embolism (3% and 5%), and heart failure (decompensated or de novo) (2% in both sexes). After adjusting for age, ethnic group, pre-existing cardiovascular disease, and risk factors for cardiovascular disease, female individuals were less likely than male individuals to have a cardiovascular complication (odds ratio 0.72, 95% confidence interval 0.64 to 0.80) or die (0.65, 0.59 to 0.72). Differences between the sexes were not modified by pre-existing cardiovascular disease; for the primary outcome, the female-to-male ratio of the odds ratio in those without, compared with those with, pre-existing cardiovascular disease was 0.84 (0.67 to 1.07). Conclusions In patients admitted to hospital for covid-19, female participants were less likely than male participants to have a cardiovascular complication. The differences between the sexes could not be attributed to the lower prevalence of pre-existing cardiovascular disease in female individuals. The reasons for this advantage in female individuals requires further research

Copernicus Ocean State Report, issue 6

The 6th issue of the Copernicus OSR incorporates a large range of topics for the blue, white and green ocean for all European regional seas, and the global ocean over 1993–2020 with a special focus on 2020

On the link between cold fronts and hail in Switzerland

Hail is the costliest atmospheric hazard in Switzerland, causing substantial damage to agriculture, cars and buildings every year. In this study, a 12-year statistic of objectively identified cold fronts and a radar-based hail statistic are combined to investigate the co-occurrence of cold fronts and hail in Switzerland. In a first step, an automated front identification scheme, which has previously been designed for and applied to global reanalysis data, is modified for a high-resolution regional analysis data set. This front detection method is then adapted, tested and applied to the Consortium for Small Scale Modelling (COSMO) analysis data for the extended hail season (May to September) in the years 2002–2013. The resulting cold front statistic is presented and discussed. In a second step, the frequency of cold fronts is linked to a high-resolution radar-based hail statistic to determine the relative fraction of hail initiation events in pre-frontal environments. Up to 45% of all detected hail events in north-eastern and southern Switzerland form in pre-frontal zones. Similar fractions are identified upstream of the Jura and the Black Forest mountains. The percentage of front-related hail formation is highest in regions where hail is statistically less frequent, with the exception of southern Switzerland. Furthermore, it is shown that fronts create wind-sheared environments, which are favourable for hail cells