104 research outputs found

    Scope for Credit Risk Diversification

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    This paper considers a simple model of credit risk and derives the limit distribution of losses under different assumptions regarding the structure of systematic risk and the nature of exposure or firm heterogeneity. We derive fat-tailed correlated loss distributions arising from Gaussian risk factors and explore the potential for risk diversification. Where possible the results are generalised to non-Gaussian distributions. The theoretical results indicate that if the firm parameters are heterogeneous but come from a common distribution, for sufficiently large portfolios there is no scope for further risk reduction through active portfolio management. However, if the firm parameters come from different distributions, then further risk reduction is possible by changing the portfolio weights. In either case, neglecting parameter heterogeneity can lead to underestimation of expected losses. But, once expected losses are controlled for, neglecting parameter heterogeneity can lead to overestimation of risk, whether measured by unexpected loss or value-at-risk

    Shaping a screening file for maximal lead discovery efficiency and effectiveness: elimination of molecular redundancy

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    High Throughput Screening (HTS) is a successful strategy for finding hits and leads that have the opportunity to be converted into drugs. In this paper we highlight novel computational methods used to select compounds to build a new screening file at Pfizer and the analytical methods we used to assess their quality. We also introduce the novel concept of molecular redundancy to help decide on the density of compounds required in any region of chemical space in order to be confident of running successful HTS campaigns

    RELICS: Reionization Lensing Cluster Survey

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    Large surveys of galaxy clusters with the Hubble and Spitzer Space Telescopes, including CLASH and the Frontier Fields, have demonstrated the power of strong gravitational lensing to efficiently deliver large samples of high-redshift galaxies. We extend this strategy through a wider, shallower survey named RELICS, the Reionization Lensing Cluster Survey. This survey, described here, was designed primarily to deliver the best and brightest high-redshift candidates from the first billion years after the Big Bang. RELICS observed 41 massive galaxy clusters with Hubble and Spitzer at 0.4-1.7um and 3.0-5.0um, respectively. We selected 21 clusters based on Planck PSZ2 mass estimates and the other 20 based on observed or inferred lensing strength. Our 188-orbit Hubble Treasury Program obtained the first high-resolution near-infrared images of these clusters to efficiently search for lensed high-redshift galaxies. We observed 46 WFC3/IR pointings (~200 arcmin^2) with two orbits divided among four filters (F105W, F125W, F140W, and F160W) and ACS imaging as needed to achieve single-orbit depth in each of three filters (F435W, F606W, and F814W). As previously reported by Salmon et al., we discovered 322 z ~ 6 - 10 candidates, including the brightest known at z ~ 6, and the most distant spatially-resolved lensed arc known at z ~ 10. Spitzer IRAC imaging (945 hours awarded, plus 100 archival) has crucially enabled us to distinguish z ~ 10 candidates from z ~ 2 interlopers. For each cluster, two HST observing epochs were staggered by about a month, enabling us to discover 11 supernovae, including 3 lensed supernovae, which we followed up with 20 orbits from our program. We delivered reduced HST images and catalogs of all clusters to the public via MAST and reduced Spitzer images via IRSA. We have also begun delivering lens models of all clusters, to be completed before the JWST GO call for proposals.Comment: 29 pages, 6 figures, submitted to ApJ. For reduced images, catalogs, lens models, and more, see relics.stsci.ed

    Deciphering Normal Blood Gene Expression Variation—The NOWAC Postgenome Study

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    There is growing evidence that gene expression profiling of peripheral blood cells is a valuable tool for assessing gene signatures related to exposure, drug-response, or disease. However, the true promise of this approach can not be estimated until the scientific community has robust baseline data describing variation in gene expression patterns in normal individuals. Using a large representative sample set of postmenopausal women (N = 286) in the Norwegian Women and Cancer (NOWAC) postgenome study, we investigated variability of whole blood gene expression in the general population. In particular, we examined changes in blood gene expression caused by technical variability, normal inter-individual differences, and exposure variables at proportions and levels relevant to real-life situations. We observe that the overall changes in gene expression are subtle, implying the need for careful analytic approaches of the data. In particular, technical variability may not be ignored and subsequent adjustments must be considered in any analysis. Many new candidate genes were identified that are differentially expressed according to inter-individual (i.e. fasting, BMI) and exposure (i.e. smoking) factors, thus establishing that these effects are mirrored in blood. By focusing on the biological implications instead of directly comparing gene lists from several related studies in the literature, our analytic approach was able to identify significant similarities and effects consistent across these reports. This establishes the feasibility of blood gene expression profiling, if they are predicated upon careful experimental design and analysis in order to minimize confounding signals, artifacts of sample preparation and processing, and inter-individual differences

    Inflation and Dark Energy from spectroscopy at z > 2

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    Genomic Relationships, Novel Loci, and Pleiotropic Mechanisms across Eight Psychiatric Disorders

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    Genetic influences on psychiatric disorders transcend diagnostic boundaries, suggesting substantial pleiotropy of contributing loci. However, the nature and mechanisms of these pleiotropic effects remain unclear. We performed analyses of 232,964 cases and 494,162 controls from genome-wide studies of anorexia nervosa, attention-deficit/hyper-activity disorder, autism spectrum disorder, bipolar disorder, major depression, obsessive-compulsive disorder, schizophrenia, and Tourette syndrome. Genetic correlation analyses revealed a meaningful structure within the eight disorders, identifying three groups of inter-related disorders. Meta-analysis across these eight disorders detected 109 loci associated with at least two psychiatric disorders, including 23 loci with pleiotropic effects on four or more disorders and 11 loci with antagonistic effects on multiple disorders. The pleiotropic loci are located within genes that show heightened expression in the brain throughout the lifespan, beginning prenatally in the second trimester, and play prominent roles in neurodevelopmental processes. These findings have important implications for psychiatric nosology, drug development, and risk prediction.Peer reviewe

    Dissecting the Shared Genetic Architecture of Suicide Attempt, Psychiatric Disorders, and Known Risk Factors

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    Background Suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide, and nonfatal suicide attempts, which occur far more frequently, are a major source of disability and social and economic burden. Both have substantial genetic etiology, which is partially shared and partially distinct from that of related psychiatric disorders. Methods We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 29,782 suicide attempt (SA) cases and 519,961 controls in the International Suicide Genetics Consortium (ISGC). The GWAS of SA was conditioned on psychiatric disorders using GWAS summary statistics via multitrait-based conditional and joint analysis, to remove genetic effects on SA mediated by psychiatric disorders. We investigated the shared and divergent genetic architectures of SA, psychiatric disorders, and other known risk factors. Results Two loci reached genome-wide significance for SA: the major histocompatibility complex and an intergenic locus on chromosome 7, the latter of which remained associated with SA after conditioning on psychiatric disorders and replicated in an independent cohort from the Million Veteran Program. This locus has been implicated in risk-taking behavior, smoking, and insomnia. SA showed strong genetic correlation with psychiatric disorders, particularly major depression, and also with smoking, pain, risk-taking behavior, sleep disturbances, lower educational attainment, reproductive traits, lower socioeconomic status, and poorer general health. After conditioning on psychiatric disorders, the genetic correlations between SA and psychiatric disorders decreased, whereas those with nonpsychiatric traits remained largely unchanged. Conclusions Our results identify a risk locus that contributes more strongly to SA than other phenotypes and suggest a shared underlying biology between SA and known risk factors that is not mediated by psychiatric disorders.Peer reviewe
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