Food systems and diets: Facing the challenges of the 21st century

The world is facing a nutrition crisis: approximately three billion people from every one of the world’s 193 countries have low-quality diets. Over the next 20 years, multiple forms of malnutrition will pose increasingly serious threats to global health. Population growth combined with climate change will place increasing stress on food systems, particularly in Africa and Asia where there will be an additional two billion people by 2050. At the same time, rapidly increasing urbanization, particularly in these two regions, will affect hunger and nutrition in complex ways – both positively and negatively. Unless policy makers apply the brakes on overweight, obesity and diet-related disease and accelerate efforts to reduce undernutrition, everyone will pay a heavy price: death, disease, economic losses and degradation of the environment. A response, equivalent to that marshalled to tackle HIV/AIDS, malaria and smoking is needed to meet these challenges. Around the world, coordinated action needs to be accompanied by fundamental shifts in our understanding and in our policy actions. Much more emphasis must be given to positioning agricultural growth as a way to improve diet quality, rather than merely delivering sufficient calories. Food systems need to be repositioned from just supplying food to providing high-quality diets for all. This will require policy initiatives far beyond agriculture to encompass trade, the environment and health, which harness the power of the private sector and empower consumers to demand better diets. This report is a call to action for world leaders and their governments. Leadership and commitment will be essential in driving forward the decisions set out in this report and in delivering the necessary priority actions to reshape the global food system

Large Possible retardation effects of quark confinement on the meson spectrum II

We present the results of a study of heavy-light-quark bound states in the context of the reduced Bethe-Salpeter equation with relativistic vector and scalar interactions. We find that satisfactory fits may also be obtained when the retarded effect of the quark-antiquark interaction is concerned.Comment: 11 pages, RevTex, to appear in PR

Coupling models of cattle and farms with models of badgers for predicting the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis (TB)

Bovine TB is a major problem for the agricultural industry in several countries. TB can be contracted and spread by species other than cattle and this can cause a problem for disease control. In the UK and Ireland, badgers are a recognised reservoir of infection and there has been substantial discussion about potential control strategies. We present a coupling of individual based models of bovine TB in badgers and cattle, which aims to capture the key details of the natural history of the disease and of both species at approximately county scale. The model is spatially explicit it follows a very large number of cattle and badgers on a different grid size for each species and includes also winter housing. We show that the model can replicate the reported dynamics of both cattle and badger populations as well as the increasing prevalence of the disease in cattle. Parameter space used as input in simulations was swept out using Latin hypercube sampling and sensitivity analysis to model outputs was conducted using mixed effect models. By exploring a large and computationally intensive parameter space we show that of the available control strategies it is the frequency of TB testing and whether or not winter housing is practised that have the most significant effects on the number of infected cattle, with the effect of winter housing becoming stronger as farm size increases. Whether badgers were culled or not explained about 5%, while the accuracy of the test employed to detect infected cattle explained less than 3% of the variance in the number of infected cattle

Lessons from agriculture for the sustainable management of malaria vectors.

Willem Takken and colleagues argue for the expansion of insecticide monotherapy in malaria control by taking lessons from agriculture and including more sustainable integrated vector management strategies

A restatement of the natural science evidence base concerning grassland management, grazing livestock and soil carbon storage

Approximately a third of all annual greenhouse gas emissions globally are directly or indirectly associated with the food system, and over a half of these are linked to livestock production. In temperate oceanic regions, such as the UK, most meat and dairy is produced in extensive systems based on pasture. There is much interest in the extent to which such grassland may be able to sequester and store more carbon to partially or completely mitigate other greenhouse gas emissions in the system. However, answering this question is difficult due to context-specificity and a complex and sometimes inconsistent evidence base. This paper describes a project that set out to summarize the natural science evidence base relevant to grassland management, grazing livestock and soil carbon storage potential in as policy-neutral terms as possible. It is based on expert appraisal of a systematically assembled evidence base, followed by a wide stakeholders engagement. A series of evidence statements (in the appendix of this paper) are listed and categorized according to the nature of the underlying information, and an annotated bibliography is provided in the electronic supplementary material

Phylogeography of an endangered disjunct herb: long-distance dispersal, refugia and colonization routes

Quaternary glacial cycles appear to have had a consistent role in shaping the genetic diversity and structure of plant species. Despite the unusual combination of the characteristics of the western Mediterranean– Macaronesian area, there are no studies that have specifically examined the effects of palaeoclimatic and palaeogeographic factors on the genetic composition and structure of annual herbs. Astragalus edulis is a disjunct endemic found in the easternmost Canary Islands and the semi-arid areas of north-eastern Africa and south-eastern Iberian Peninsula. This endangered species shows no evident adaptations to long-distance dispersal. Amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) data and plastid DNA sequences were analysed from a total of 360 individuals distributed throughout the range of this species. The modelled potential distribution of A. edulis under current conditions was projected over the climatic conditions of the Last Interglacial (130 ka BP) and Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka BP) to analyse changes in habitat suitability and to look for associations between the modelling and genetic results. Amplified fragment length polymorphism analysis showed clear phylogeographic structure with four distinct genetic clusters. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) models based on plastid DNA sequences indicated a Middle Pleistocene long-distance dispersal event as the origin of the populations of the Canary Islands. The models also suggested south-western Morocco as the ancestral area for the species, as well as subsequent colonization of north-eastern Morocco and the Iberian Peninsula. The data compiled indicated the possibility of the presence of refuge areas at favourable locations around the High Atlas and Anti-Atlas mountain ranges. Moreover, palaeodistribution models strongly support the events inferred by ABC modelling and show the potential distribution of the species in the past, suggesting a putative colonization route.This work has been financed by the Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación through the projects CGL2012- 32574 and REN2003-09427, as well as by the Andalusian Consejería de Innovación, Ciencia y Tecnología through the project RNM1067. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript

Unpredictable environments lead to the evolution of parental neglect in birds

A nest of begging chicks invites an intuitive explanation: needy chicks want to be fed and parents want to feed them. Surprisingly, however, in a quarter of species studied, parents ignore begging chicks. Furthermore, parents in some species even neglect smaller chicks that beg more, and preferentially feed the biggest chicks that beg less. This extreme variation across species, which contradicts predictions from theory, represents a major outstanding problem for the study of animal signalling. We analyse parent–offspring communication across 143 bird species, and show that this variation correlates with ecological differences. In predictable and good environments, chicks in worse condition beg more, and parents preferentially feed those chicks. In unpredictable and poor environments, parents pay less attention to begging, and instead rely on size cues or structural signals of quality. Overall, these results show how ecological variation can lead to different signalling systems being evolutionarily stable in different species

Lack of phenotypic and evolutionary cross-resistance against parasitoids and pathogens in Drosophila melanogaster

BackgroundWhen organisms are attacked by multiple natural enemies, the evolution of a resistance mechanism to one natural enemy will be influenced by the degree of cross-resistance to another natural enemy. Cross-resistance can be positive, when a resistance mechanism against one natural enemy also offers resistance to another; or negative, in the form of a trade-off, when an increase in resistance against one natural enemy results in a decrease in resistance against another. Using Drosophila melanogaster, an important model system for the evolution of invertebrate immunity, we test for the existence of cross-resistance against parasites and pathogens, at both a phenotypic and evolutionary level.MethodsWe used a field strain of D. melanogaster to test whether surviving parasitism by the parasitoid Asobara tabida has an effect on the resistance against Beauveria bassiana, an entomopathogenic fungus; and whether infection with the microsporidian Tubulinosema kingi has an effect on the resistance against A. tabida. We used lines selected for increased resistance to A. tabida to test whether increased parasitoid resistance has an effect on resistance against B. bassiana and T. kingi. We used lines selected for increased tolerance against B. bassiana to test whether increased fungal resistance has an effect on resistance against A. tabida.Results/ConclusionsWe found no positive cross-resistance or trade-offs in the resistance to parasites and pathogens. This is an important finding, given the use of D. melanogaster as a model system for the evolution of invertebrate immunity. The lack of any cross-resistance to parasites and pathogens, at both the phenotypic and the evolutionary level, suggests that evolution of resistance against one class of natural enemies is largely independent of evolution of resistance against the other

Identifying the science and technology dimensions of emerging public policy issues through horizon scanning

Public policy requires public support, which in turn implies a need to enable the public not just to understand policy but also to be engaged in its development. Where complex science and technology issues are involved in policy making, this takes time, so it is important to identify emerging issues of this type and prepare engagement plans. In our horizon scanning exercise, we used a modified Delphi technique [1]. A wide group of people with interests in the science and policy interface (drawn from policy makers, policy adviser, practitioners, the private sector and academics) elicited a long list of emergent policy issues in which science and technology would feature strongly and which would also necessitate public engagement as policies are developed. This was then refined to a short list of top priorities for policy makers. Thirty issues were identified within broad areas of business and technology; energy and environment; government, politics and education; health, healthcare, population and aging; information, communication, infrastructure and transport; and public safety and national security.Public policy requires public support, which in turn implies a need to enable the public not just to understand policy but also to be engaged in its development. Where complex science and technology issues are involved in policy making, this takes time, so it is important to identify emerging issues of this type and prepare engagement plans. In our horizon scanning exercise, we used a modified Delphi technique [1]. A wide group of people with interests in the science and policy interface (drawn from policy makers, policy adviser, practitioners, the private sector and academics) elicited a long list of emergent policy issues in which science and technology would feature strongly and which would also necessitate public engagement as policies are developed. This was then refined to a short list of top priorities for policy makers. Thirty issues were identified within broad areas of business and technology; energy and environment; government, politics and education; health, healthcare, population and aging; information, communication, infrastructure and transport; and public safety and national security

What is a sustainable healthy diet? A discussion paper

The food system today is destroying the environment upon which future food production depends. While the food system generates enough food energy for our population of over 7 billion it does not deliver adequate and affordable nutrition for all. About half the global population is inadequately or inappropriately nourished. Without action, these problems are set to become acute. As our global population grows, urbanises and becomes wealthier, it is demanding more resource intensive, energy rich foods. What, and how much we eat directly affects what, and how much is produced. We therefore need to consume more „sustainable diets‟ – diets that have lower environmental impacts, and are healthier. But what does such a diet look like? Can health, environmental sustainability, and all the other goals we have for our food system really be reconciled, or will there be trade offs