Bovine TB is a major problem for the agricultural industry in several
countries. TB can be contracted and spread by species other than cattle and
this can cause a problem for disease control. In the UK and Ireland, badgers
are a recognised reservoir of infection and there has been substantial
discussion about potential control strategies. We present a coupling of
individual based models of bovine TB in badgers and cattle, which aims to
capture the key details of the natural history of the disease and of both
species at approximately county scale. The model is spatially explicit it
follows a very large number of cattle and badgers on a different grid size for
each species and includes also winter housing. We show that the model can
replicate the reported dynamics of both cattle and badger populations as well
as the increasing prevalence of the disease in cattle. Parameter space used as
input in simulations was swept out using Latin hypercube sampling and
sensitivity analysis to model outputs was conducted using mixed effect models.
By exploring a large and computationally intensive parameter space we show that
of the available control strategies it is the frequency of TB testing and
whether or not winter housing is practised that have the most significant
effects on the number of infected cattle, with the effect of winter housing
becoming stronger as farm size increases. Whether badgers were culled or not
explained about 5%, while the accuracy of the test employed to detect infected
cattle explained less than 3% of the variance in the number of infected cattle
