Duration dependence versus unobserved heterogeneity in treatment effects: Swedish labor market training and the transition rate to employment

The vocational employment training program is the most expensive training program in Sweden and a cornerstone of labor market policy. We analyze its causal effects on the individual transition rate from unemployment to employment by exploiting variation in the timing of treatment and outcome, dealing with selectivity on unobservables. We demonstrate the appropriateness of this approach in our context by studying the enrollment process. We develop a model allowing for duration dependence and unobserved heterogeneity (leading to spurious duration dependence) in the treatment effect itself, and we prove non-parametric identification. The data cover the population and include multiple unemployment spells for many individuals. The results indicate a large significantly positive effect on exit to work shortly after exiting the program. The effect at the inidividual level diminishes after some weeks. When taking account of the time spent in the program, the effect on the mean unemployment duration is small.Vocational training; progam evaluation; duration analysis; selectivity bias; dynamic treatments; active labor policy; identification

A Review of Lenalidomide in Combination with Dexamethasone for the Treatment of Multiple Myeloma

Lenalidomide (also known as Revlimid®, CC-5013) is an immunomodulatory derivative of thalidomide and has more potent anti-tumor and anti-inflammatory effects than thalidomide. The molecular mechanisms of anti-tumor activity of lenalidomide have been extensively studied in multiple myeloma (MM) both preclinical models and in clinical trials. Lenalidomide: directly triggers growth arrest and/or apoptosis of drug resistant MM cells; inhibits binding of MM cells to bone marrow (BM) extracellular matrix proteins and stromal cells; modulates cytokine secretion and inhibits angiogenesis in the BM milieu; and augments host anti-tumor immunity. Lenalidomide achieved responses in patients with relapsed refractory MM. Moreover, lenalidomide with dexamethasone (Dex) demonstrates more potent anti-MM activities than Dex both in vitro and in randomized phase III clinical trials. Specifically, the combination improved overall and extent of response, as well as prolonged time to progression and overall survival, resulting in FDA approval of lenalidomide with Dex for therapy MM relapsing after prior therapy

Cigarette pack design and adolescent smoking susceptibility: A cross-sectional survey

Objectives: To compare adolescents' responses to three different styles of cigarette packaging: novelty (branded packs designed with a distinctive shape, opening style or bright colour), regular (branded pack with no special design features) and plain (brown pack with a standard shape and opening and all branding removed, aside from brand name). Design: Cross-sectional in-home survey. Setting: UK. Participants: Random location quota sample of 1025 never smokers aged 11-16 years. Main outcome measures: Susceptibility to smoking and composite measures of pack appraisal and pack receptivity derived from 11 survey items. Results: Mean responses to the three pack types were negative for all survey items. However, ‘novelty' packs were rated significantly less negatively than the ‘regular' pack on most items, and the novelty and regular packs were rated less negatively than the ‘plain' pack. For the novelty packs, logistic regressions, controlling for factors known to influence youth smoking, showed that susceptibility was associated with positive appraisal and also receptivity. For example, those receptive to the innovative Silk Cut Superslims pack were more than four times as likely to be susceptible to smoking than those not receptive to this pack (AOR=4.42, 95% CI 2.50 to 7.81, p<0.001). For the regular pack, an association was found between positive appraisal and susceptibility but not with receptivity and susceptibility. There was no association with pack appraisal or receptivity for the plain pack. Conclusions: Pack structure (shape and opening style) and colour are independently associated, not just with appreciation of and receptivity to the pack, but also with susceptibility to smoke. In other words, those who think most highly of novelty cigarette packaging are also the ones who indicate that they are most likely to go on to smoke. Plain packaging, in contrast, was found to directly reduce the appeal of smoking to adolescents

Stellar Diameters and Temperatures. I. Main-Sequence A, F, and G Stars

We have executed a survey of nearby, main-sequence A-, F-, and G-type stars with the CHARA Array, successfully measuring the angular diameters of forty-four stars with an average precision of ~1.5%. We present new measures of the bolometric flux, which in turn leads to an empirical determination of the effective temperature for the stars observed. In addition, these CHARA-determined temperatures, radii, and luminosities are fit to Yonsei-Yale model isochrones to constrain the masses and ages of the stars. These results are compared to indirect estimates of these quantities obtained by collecting photometry of the stars and applying them to model atmospheres and evolutionary isochrones. We find that for most cases, the models overestimate the effective temperature by ~1.5%-4% when compared to our directly measured values. The overestimated temperatures and underestimated radii in these works appear to cause an additional offset in the star's surface gravity measurements, which consequently yield higher masses and younger ages, in particular for stars with masses greater than ~1.3 M_☉. Additionally, we compare our measurements to a large sample of eclipsing binary stars, and excellent agreement is seen within both data sets. Finally, we present temperature relations with respect to (B – V) and (V – K) colors as well as spectral type, showing that calibration of effective temperatures with errors ~1% is now possible from interferometric angular diameters of stars

On the computation of moist-air specific thermal enthalpy

The specific thermal enthalpy of a moist-air parcel is defined analytically following a method in which specific moist entropy is derived from the Third Law of thermodynamics. Specific thermal enthalpy is computed by integrating specific heat content with respect to absolute temperature and including the impacts of various latent heats (i.e., solid condensation, sublimation, melting, and evaporation). It is assumed that thermal enthalpies can be set to zero at $0$ K for the solid form of the main chemically inactive components of the atmosphere (solid-$\alpha$ oxygen and nitrogen, hexagonal ice). The moist thermal enthalpy is compared to already existing formulations of moist static energy (MSE). It is shown that the differences between thermal enthalpy and the thermal part of MSE may be quite large. This prevents the use of MSE to evaluate the enthalpy budget of a moist atmosphere accurately, a situation that is particularly true when dry-air and cloud parcels mix because of entrainment/detrainment processes along the edges of cloud. Other differences are observed when MSE or moist-air thermal enthalpy is plotted on a psychrometric diagram or when vertical profiles of surface deficit are plotted.Comment: Paper accepted for publication (January 2014) in the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (39 pages, 12 Figures, 7 Tables

Adolescents’ responses to the promotion and flavouring of e-cigarettes

Objectives The purpose of the study is to examine adolescents’ awareness of e-cigarette marketing and investigate the impact of e-cigarette flavour descriptors on perceptions of product harm and user image. Methods Data come from the 2014 Youth Tobacco Policy Survey, a cross-sectional in-home survey conducted with 11–16 year olds across the UK (n = 1205). Adolescents’ awareness of e-cigarette promotion, brands, and flavours was assessed. Perceptions of product harm, and likely user of four examples of e-cigarette flavours was also examined. Results Some participants had tried e-cigarettes (12 %) but regular use was low (2 %) and confined to adolescents who had also smoked tobacco. Most were aware of at least one promotional channel (82 %) and that e-cigarettes came in different flavours (69 %). Brand awareness was low. E-cigarettes were perceived as harmful (M = 3.54, SD = 1.19) but this was moderated by product flavours. Fruit and sweet flavours were perceived as more likely to be tried by young never smokers than adult smokers trying to quit (p < 0.001). Conclusions There is a need to monitor the impact of future market and regulatory change on youth uptake and perceptions of e-cigarettes

The Australian public's preferences for emergency care alternatives and the influence of the presenting context: a discrete choice experiment

Objectives The current study seeks to quantify the Australian public's preferences for emergency care alternatives and determine if preferences differ depending on presenting circumstances. Setting Increasing presentations to emergency departments have led to overcrowding, long waiting times and suboptimal health system performance. Accordingly, new service models involving the provision of care in alternative settings and delivered by other practitioners continue to be developed. Participants A stratified sample of Australian adults (n=1838), 1382 from Queensland and 456 from South Australia, completed the survey. This included 951 females and 887 males from the 2045 people who met the screening criteria out of the 4354 people who accepted the survey invitation. Interventions A discrete choice experiment was used to elicit preferences in the context of one of four hypothetical scenarios: a possible concussion, a rash/asthma-related problem involving oneself or one's child and an anxiety-related presentation. Mixed logit regression was used to analyse the dependent variable choice and identify the relative importance of care attributes and the propensity to access care in each context. Results Results indicated a preference for treatment by an emergency physician in hospital for possible concussion and treatment by a doctor in ambulatory settings for rash/asthma-related and anxiety-related problems. Participants were consistently willing to wait longer before making trade-offs in the context of the rash/asthma-related scenario compared with when the same problem affected their child. Results suggest a clear preference for lower costs, shorter wait times and strong emphasis on quality care; however, significant preference heterogeneity was observed. Conclusions This study has increased awareness that the public's emergency care choices will differ depending on the presenting context. It has further demonstrated the importance of service quality as a determinant of healthcare choices. The findings have also provided insights into the Australian public's reactions to emergency care reforms

Lenalidomide for the Treatment of Relapsed and Refractory Multiple Myeloma

Lenalidomide is an amino-substituted derivative of thalidomide with direct antiproliferative and cytotoxic effects on the myeloma tumor cell, as well as antiangiogenic activity and immunomodulatory effects. Together with the introduction of bortezomib and thalidomide, lenalidomide has significantly improved the survival of patients with relapsed and refractory myeloma. The most common adverse events associated with lenalidomide include fatigue, skin rash, thrombocytopenia, and neutropenia. In addition, when lenalidomide is combined with dexamethasone or other conventional cytotoxic agents, there is an increase in the incidence of venous thromboembolic events. There is now evidence that continued treatment with lenalidomide has a significant impact on survival by improving the depth and duration of response. This highlights the value of adverse event management and appropriate dose adjustments to prevent toxicity, and of allowing continued treatment until disease progression. In this review, we will discuss the different lenalidomide-based treatment regimens for patients with relapsed/refractory myeloma. This is accompanied by recommendations of how to manage and prevent adverse events associated with lenalidomide-based therapy

First-year Results of Broadband Spectroscopy of the Brightest Fermi-GBM Gamma-Ray Bursts

We present here our results of the temporal and spectral analysis of a sample of 52 bright and hard gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) observed with the Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM) during its first year of operation (July 2008-July 2009). Our sample was selected from a total of 253 GBM GRBs based on each event peak count rate measured between 0.2 and 40MeV. The final sample comprised 34 long and 18 short GRBs. These numbers show that the GBM sample contains a much larger fraction of short GRBs, than the CGRO/BATSE data set, which we explain as the result of our (different) selection criteria and the improved GBM trigger algorithms, which favor collection of short, bright GRBs over BATSE. A first by-product of our selection methodology is the determination of a detection threshold from the GBM data alone, above which GRBs most likely will be detected in the MeV/GeV range with the Large Area Telescope (LAT) onboard Fermi. This predictor will be very useful for future multiwavelength GRB follow ups with ground and space based observatories. Further we have estimated the burst durations up to 10MeV and for the first time expanded the duration-energy relationship in the GRB light curves to high energies. We confirm that GRB durations decline with energy as a power law with index approximately -0.4, as was found earlier with the BATSE data and we also notice evidence of a possible cutoff or break at higher energies. Finally, we performed time-integrated spectral analysis of all 52 bursts and compared their spectral parameters with those obtained with the larger data sample of the BATSE data. We find that the two parameter data sets are similar and confirm that short GRBs are in general harder than longer ones.Comment: 40 pages, 11 figures, 3 tables, Submitted to Ap