Development and validation of risk models to predict outcomes following in-hospital cardiac arrest attended by a hospital-based resuscitation team

Aim The National Cardiac Arrest Audit (NCAA) is the UK national clinical audit for in-hospital cardiac arrest. To make fair comparisons among health care providers, clinical indicators require case mix adjustment using a validated risk model. The aim of this study was to develop and validate risk models to predict outcomes following in-hospital cardiac arrest attended by a hospital-based resuscitation team in UK hospitals. Methods Risk models for two outcomes—return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) for greater than 20 min and survival to hospital discharge—were developed and validated using data for in-hospital cardiac arrests between April 2011 and March 2013. For each outcome, a full model was fitted and then simplified by testing for non-linearity, combining categories and stepwise reduction. Finally, interactions between predictors were considered. Models were assessed for discrimination, calibration and accuracy. Results 22,479 in-hospital cardiac arrests in 143 hospitals were included (14,688 development, 7791 validation). The final risk model for ROSC > 20 min included: age (non-linear), sex, prior length of stay in hospital, reason for attendance, location of arrest, presenting rhythm, and interactions between presenting rhythm and location of arrest. The model for hospital survival included the same predictors, excluding sex. Both models had acceptable performance across the range of measures, although discrimination for hospital mortality exceeded that for ROSC > 20 min (c index 0.81 versus 0.72). Conclusions Validated risk models for ROSC > 20 min and hospital survival following in-hospital cardiac arrest have been developed. These models will strengthen comparative reporting in NCAA and support local quality improvement

Incidence and outcome of in-hospital cardiac arrest in the United Kingdom National Cardiac Arrest Audit

Objective To report the incidence, characteristics and outcome of adult in-hospital cardiac arrest in the United Kingdom (UK) National Cardiac Arrest Audit database. Methods A prospectively defined analysis of the UK National Cardiac Arrest Audit (NCAA) database. 144 acute hospitals contributed data relating to 22,628 patients aged 16 years or over receiving chest compressions and/or defibrillation and attended by a hospital-based resuscitation team in response to a 2222 call. The main outcome measures were incidence of adult in-hospital cardiac arrest and survival to hospital discharge. Results The overall incidence of adult in-hospital cardiac arrest was 1.6 per 1000 hospital admissions with a median across hospitals of 1.5 (interquartile range 1.2–2.2). Incidence varied seasonally, peaking in winter. Overall unadjusted survival to hospital discharge was 18.4%. The presenting rhythm was shockable (ventricular fibrillation or pulseless ventricular tachycardia) in 16.9% and non-shockable (asystole or pulseless electrical activity) in 72.3%; rates of survival to hospital discharge associated with these rhythms were 49.0% and 10.5%, respectively, but varied substantially across hospitals. Conclusions These first results from the NCAA database describing the current incidence and outcome of adult in-hospital cardiac arrest in UK hospitals will serve as a benchmark from which to assess the future impact of changes in service delivery, organisation and treatment for in-hospital cardiac arrest

Adult advanced life support: Section 3 of the European Resuscitation Council Guidelines for Resuscitation 2015

Erweiterte lebensrettende Maßnahmen für Erwachsene („advanced life support“, ALS) kommen zum Einsatz, nachdem Basismaßnahmen zur Wiederbelebung („basic life support“, BLS) begonnen und, wenn sinnvoll, ein automatisierter externer Defibrillator (AED) verwendet wurde. Die Basismaßnahmen zur Wiederbelebung eines Erwachsenen und der Einsatz von AEDs wird in Kap. 2 ausgeführt. Basis- und erweiterte Maßnahmen sollen nahtlos ineinander übergehen, da erstere fortgeführt werden und sich mit den erweiterten überschneiden. Dieses Kapitel über die erweiterten Maßnahmen beinhaltet die Vermeidung des Kreislaufstillstands, spezielle Aspekte des außerklinischen ALS, den Start der innerklinischen Reanimation, den ALS-Algorithmus, die manuelle Defibrillation, das Atemwegsmanagement während der Reanimaton, Medikamente und ihre Anwendung während der Reanimation sowie die Behandlung von Periarrest-Arrhythmien. Es gibt zwei Änderungen in der äußeren Form dieser Leitlinien des Europäischen Rats für Wiederbelebung seit den Leitlinien von 2010: [1] Das Kapitel „Elektrotherapie“ [2] ist nicht mehr eigenständig, sondern Teil dieses Kapitels; und die Leitlinien zur Behandlung nach Reanimation sind in ein neues Kapitel ausgegliedert, welches die Bedeutung dieses letzten Glieds der Überlebenskette unterstreicht [3]. Diese Leitlinien basieren auf den International Liaison Committee on Resuscitation (ILCOR) Consensus on Science and Treatment Recommendations (CoSTR) für ALS von 2015 [4]. Die Überprüfung der ILCOR-Empfehlungen von 2015 konzentrierte sich auf 42 Themen, entsprechend der zeitlichen Abfolge der erweiterten Maßnahmen: Defibrillation, Atemwege, Oxygenierung und Ventilation, Kreislaufunterstützung und Überwachung und Einsatz von Medikamenten während der Reanimation. Für diese Leitlinien wurden die ILCOR-Empfehlungen durch ein gezieltes Literatur-Review ergänzt, welches von der ERC-ALS-Leitlinien Autorengruppe zu den Themen die nicht in den ILCOR-CoSTR-Empfehlungen von 2015 überarbeitet wurden erstellt wurde. Die Leitlinien wurden ausgearbeitet, von den ALS-Verfassern geprüft und abschließend von der ERC-Vollversammlung und dem ERC-Vorstand abgesegnet

Multiomics modeling of the immunome, transcriptome, microbiome, proteome and metabolome adaptations during human pregnancy.

MotivationMultiple biological clocks govern a healthy pregnancy. These biological mechanisms produce immunologic, metabolomic, proteomic, genomic and microbiomic adaptations during the course of pregnancy. Modeling the chronology of these adaptations during full-term pregnancy provides the frameworks for future studies examining deviations implicated in pregnancy-related pathologies including preterm birth and preeclampsia.ResultsWe performed a multiomics analysis of 51 samples from 17 pregnant women, delivering at term. The datasets included measurements from the immunome, transcriptome, microbiome, proteome and metabolome of samples obtained simultaneously from the same patients. Multivariate predictive modeling using the Elastic Net (EN) algorithm was used to measure the ability of each dataset to predict gestational age. Using stacked generalization, these datasets were combined into a single model. This model not only significantly increased predictive power by combining all datasets, but also revealed novel interactions between different biological modalities. Future work includes expansion of the cohort to preterm-enriched populations and in vivo analysis of immune-modulating interventions based on the mechanisms identified.Availability and implementationDatasets and scripts for reproduction of results are available through: https://nalab.stanford.edu/multiomics-pregnancy/.Supplementary informationSupplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online

'To live and die [for] Dixie': Irish civilians and the Confederate States of America

Around 20,000 Irishmen served in the Confederate army in the Civil War. As a result, they left behind, in various Southern towns and cities, large numbers of friends, family, and community leaders. As with native-born Confederates, Irish civilian support was crucial to Irish participation in the Confederate military effort. Also, Irish civilians served in various supporting roles: in factories and hospitals, on railroads and diplomatic missions, and as boosters for the cause. They also, however, suffered in bombardments, sieges, and the blockade. Usually poorer than their native neighbours, they could not afford to become 'refugees' and move away from the centres of conflict. This essay, based on research from manuscript collections, contemporary newspapers, British Consular records, and Federal military records, will examine the role of Irish civilians in the Confederacy, and assess the role this activity had on their integration into Southern communities. It will also look at Irish civilians in the defeat of the Confederacy, particularly when they came under Union occupation. Initial research shows that Irish civilians were not as upset as other whites in the South about Union victory. They welcomed a return to normalcy, and often 'collaborated' with Union authorities. Also, Irish desertion rates in the Confederate army were particularly high, and I will attempt to gauge whether Irish civilians played a role in this. All of the research in this paper will thus be put in the context of the Drew Gilpin Faust/Gary Gallagher debate on the influence of the Confederate homefront on military performance. By studying the Irish civilian experience one can assess how strong the Confederate national experiment was. Was it a nation without a nationalism

An immune clock of human pregnancy

The maintenance of pregnancy relies on finely tuned immune adaptations. We demonstrate that these adaptations are precisely timed, reflecting an immune clock of pregnancy in women delivering at term. Using mass cytometry, the abundance and functional responses of all major immune cell subsets were quantified in serial blood samples collected throughout pregnancy. Cell signaling-based Elastic Net, a regularized regression method adapted from the elastic net algorithm, was developed to infer and prospectively validate a predictive model of interrelated immune events that accurately captures the chronology of pregnancy. Model components highlighted existing knowledge and revealed previously unreported biology, including a critical role for the interleukin-2-dependent STAT5ab signaling pathway in modulating T cell function during pregnancy. These findings unravel the precise timing of immunological events occurring during a term pregnancy and provide the analytical framework to identify immunological deviations implicated in pregnancy-related pathologies

Haidinger’s brushes elicited at varying degrees of polarization rapidly and easily assesses total macular pigmentation

Macular pigments (MPs), by absorbing potentially toxic short-wavelength (400–500 nm) visible light, provide protection against photo-chemical damage thought to be relevant in the pathogenesis of age-related macular degeneration (AMD). A method of screening for low levels of MPs could be part of a prevention strategy for helping people to delay the onset of AMD. We introduce a new method for assessing MP density that takes advantage of the polarization-dependent absorption of blue light by MPs, which results in the entoptic phenomenon called Haidinger’s brushes (HB). Subjects were asked to identify the direction of rotation of HB when presented with a circular stimulus illuminated with an even intensity of polarized white light in which the electric field vector was rotating either clockwise or anti-clockwise. By reducing the degree of polarization of the stimulus light, a threshold for perceiving HB (degree of polarization threshold) was determined and correlated (r2=0.66) to macular pigment optical density assessed using dual-wavelength fundus autofluoresence. The speed and ease of measurement of degree of polarization threshold makes it well suited for large-scale screening of macular pigmentation

Air Trapping on Chest CT Is Associated with Worse Ventilation Distribution in Infants with Cystic Fibrosis Diagnosed following Newborn Screening

BACKGROUND: In school-aged children with cystic fibrosis (CF) structural lung damage assessed using chest CT is associated with abnormal ventilation distribution. The primary objective of this analysis was to determine the relationships between ventilation distribution outcomes and the presence and extent of structural damage as assessed by chest CT in infants and young children with CF. METHODS: Data of infants and young children with CF diagnosed following newborn screening consecutively reviewed between August 2005 and December 2009 were analysed. Ventilation distribution (lung clearance index and the first and second moment ratios [LCI, M(1)/M(0) and M(2)/M(0), respectively]), chest CT and airway pathology from bronchoalveolar lavage were determined at diagnosis and then annually. The chest CT scans were evaluated for the presence or absence of bronchiectasis and air trapping. RESULTS: Matched lung function, chest CT and pathology outcomes were available in 49 infants (31 male) with bronchiectasis and air trapping present in 13 (27%) and 24 (49%) infants, respectively. The presence of bronchiectasis or air trapping was associated with increased M(2)/M(0) but not LCI or M(1)/M(0). There was a weak, but statistically significant association between the extent of air trapping and all ventilation distribution outcomes. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that in early CF lung disease there are weak associations between ventilation distribution and lung damage from chest CT. These finding are in contrast to those reported in older children. These findings suggest that assessments of LCI could not be used to replace a chest CT scan for the assessment of structural lung disease in the first two years of life. Further research in which both MBW and chest CT outcomes are obtained is required to assess the role of ventilation distribution in tracking the progression of lung damage in infants with CF

A population of gamma-ray emitting globular clusters seen with the Fermi Large Area Telescope

Globular clusters with their large populations of millisecond pulsars (MSPs) are believed to be potential emitters of high-energy gamma-ray emission. Our goal is to constrain the millisecond pulsar populations in globular clusters from analysis of gamma-ray observations. We use 546 days of continuous sky-survey observations obtained with the Large Area Telescope aboard the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope to study the gamma-ray emission towards 13 globular clusters. Steady point-like high-energy gamma-ray emission has been significantly detected towards 8 globular clusters. Five of them (47 Tucanae, Omega Cen, NGC 6388, Terzan 5, and M 28) show hard spectral power indices $(0.7 < \Gamma <1.4)$ and clear evidence for an exponential cut-off in the range 1.0-2.6 GeV, which is the characteristic signature of magnetospheric emission from MSPs. Three of them (M 62, NGC 6440 and NGC 6652) also show hard spectral indices $(1.0 < \Gamma < 1.7)$, however the presence of an exponential cut-off can not be unambiguously established. Three of them (Omega Cen, NGC 6388, NGC 6652) have no known radio or X-ray MSPs yet still exhibit MSP spectral properties. From the observed gamma-ray luminosities, we estimate the total number of MSPs that is expected to be present in these globular clusters. We show that our estimates of the MSP population correlate with the stellar encounter rate and we estimate 2600-4700 MSPs in Galactic globular clusters, commensurate with previous estimates. The observation of high-energy gamma-ray emission from a globular cluster thus provides a reliable independent method to assess their millisecond pulsar populations that can be used to make constraints on the original neutron star X-ray binary population, essential for understanding the importance of binary systems in slowing the inevitable core collapse of globular clusters.Comment: Accepted for publication in A&A. Corresponding authors: J. Kn\"odlseder, N. Webb, B. Pancraz

Fermi Large Area Telescope Constraints on the Gamma-ray Opacity of the Universe

The Extragalactic Background Light (EBL) includes photons with wavelengths from ultraviolet to infrared, which are effective at attenuating gamma rays with energy above ~10 GeV during propagation from sources at cosmological distances. This results in a redshift- and energy-dependent attenuation of the gamma-ray flux of extragalactic sources such as blazars and Gamma-Ray Bursts (GRBs). The Large Area Telescope onboard Fermi detects a sample of gamma-ray blazars with redshift up to z~3, and GRBs with redshift up to z~4.3. Using photons above 10 GeV collected by Fermi over more than one year of observations for these sources, we investigate the effect of gamma-ray flux attenuation by the EBL. We place upper limits on the gamma-ray opacity of the Universe at various energies and redshifts, and compare this with predictions from well-known EBL models. We find that an EBL intensity in the optical-ultraviolet wavelengths as great as predicted by the "baseline" model of Stecker et al. (2006) can be ruled out with high confidence.Comment: 42 pages, 12 figures, accepted version (24 Aug.2010) for publication in ApJ; Contact authors: A. Bouvier, A. Chen, S. Raino, S. Razzaque, A. Reimer, L.C. Reye