How the Assumed Size Distribution of Dust Minerals Affects the Predicted Ice Forming Nuclei

The formation of ice in clouds depends on the availability of ice forming nuclei (IFN). Dust aerosol particles are considered the most important source of IFN at a global scale. Recent laboratory studies have demonstrated that the mineral feldspar provides the most efficient dust IFN for immersion freezing and together with kaolinite for deposition ice nucleation, and that the phyllosilicates illite and montmorillonite (a member of the smectite group) are of secondary importance.A few studies have applied global models that simulate mineral specific dust to predict the number and geographical distribution of IFN. These studies have been based on the simple assumption that the mineral composition of soil as provided in data sets from the literature translates directly into the mineral composition of the dust aerosols. However, these tables are based on measurements of wet-sieved soil where dust aggregates are destroyed to a large degree. In consequence, the size distribution of dust is shifted to smaller sizes, and phyllosilicates like illite, kaolinite, and smectite are only found in the size range 2 m. In contrast, in measurements of the mineral composition of dust aerosols, the largest mass fraction of these phyllosilicates is found in the size range 2 m as part of dust aggregates. Conversely, the mass fraction of feldspar is smaller in this size range, varying with the geographical location. This may have a significant effect on the predicted IFN number and its geographical distribution.An improved mineral specific dust aerosol module has been recently implemented in the NASA GISS Earth System ModelE2. The dust module takes into consideration the disaggregated state of wet-sieved soil, on which the tables of soil mineral fractions are based. To simulate the atmospheric cycle of the minerals, the mass size distribution of each mineral in aggregates that are emitted from undispersed parent soil is reconstructed. In the current study, we test the null-hypothesis that simulating the presence of a large mass fraction of phyllosilicates in dust aerosols in the size range 2 m, in comparison to a simple model assumption where this is neglected, does not yield a significant effect on the magnitude and geographical distribution of the predicted IFN number. Results from sensitivity experiments are presented as well

Operational Dust Prediction

Over the last few years, numerical prediction of dust aerosol concentration has become prominent at several research and operational weather centres due to growing interest from diverse stakeholders, such as solar energy plant managers, health professionals, aviation and military authorities and policymakers. Dust prediction in numerical weather prediction-type models faces a number of challenges owing to the complexity of the system. At the centre of the problem is the vast range of scales required to fully account for all of the physical processes related to dust. Another limiting factor is the paucity of suitable dust observations available for model, evaluation and assimilation. This chapter discusses in detail numerical prediction of dust with examples from systems that are currently providing dust forecasts in near real-time or are part of international efforts to establish daily provision of dust forecasts based on multi-model ensembles. The various models are introduced and described along with an overview on the importance of dust prediction activities and a historical perspective. Assimilation and evaluation aspects in dust prediction are also discussed

Serum Metabolic Alterations upon Zika Infection

Zika virus (ZIKV) infection has recently emerged as a major concern worldwide due to its strong association with nervous system malformation (microcephaly) of fetuses in pregnant women infected by the virus. Signs and symptoms of ZIKV infection are often mistaken with other common viral infections. Since transmission may occur through biological fluids exchange and coitus, in addition to mosquito bite, this condition is an important infectious disease. Thus, understanding the mechanism of viral infection has become an important research focus, as well as providing potential targets for assertive clinical diagnosis and quality screening for hemoderivatives. Within this context, the present work analyzed blood plasma from 79 subjects, divided as a control group and a ZIKV-infected group. Samples underwent direct-infusion mass spectrometry and statistical analysis, where eight markers related to the pathophysiological process of ZIKV infection were elected and characterized. Among these, Angiotensin (1-7) and Angiotensin I were upregulated under infection, showing an attempt to induce autophagy of the infected cells. However, this finding is concerning about hypertensive individuals under treatment with inhibitors of the Renin-Angiotensin System (RAS), which could reduce this response against the virus and exacerbate the symptoms of the infection. Moreover, one of the most abundant glycosphingolipids in the nervous tissue, Ganglioside GM2, was also elected in the present study as an infection biomarker. Considered an important pathogen receptor at membrane's outer layer, this finding represents the importance of gangliosides for ZIKV infection and its association with brain tropism. Furthermore, a series of phosphatidylinositols were also identified as biomarkers, implying a significant role of the PI3K-AKT-mTOR Pathway in this mechanism. Finally, these pathways may also be understood as potential targets to be considered in pharmacological intervention studies on ZIKV infection management

Estimating mortality and disability in Peru before the COVID-19 pandemic : a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of the Disease Study 2019

Background: Estimating and analyzing trends and patterns of health loss are essential to promote efficient resource allocation and improve Peru’s healthcare system performance. Methods: Using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (2019), we assessed mortality and disability in Peru from 1990 to 2019. We report demographic and epidemiologic trends in terms of population, life expectancy at birth (LE), mortality, incidence, prevalence, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) caused by the major diseases and risk factors in Peru. Finally, we compared Peru with 16 countries in the Latin American (LA) region. Results: The Peruvian population reached 33.9 million inhabitants (49.9% women) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, LE at birth increased from 69.2 (95% uncertainty interval 67.8-70.3) to 80.3 (77.2-83.2) years. This increase was driven by the decline in under-5 mortality (-80.7%) and mortality from infectious diseases in older age groups (+60 years old). The number of DALYs in 1990 was 9.2 million (8.5–10.1) and reached 7.5 million (6.1–9.0) in 2019. The proportion of DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) increased from 38.2% in 1990 to 67.9% in 2019. The all-ages and age-standardized DALYs rates and YLLs rates decreased, but YLDs rates remained constant. In 2019, the leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections (LRIs), ischemic heart disease, road injuries, and low back pain. The leading risk factors associated with DALYs in 2019 were undernutrition, high body mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and air pollution. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, Peru experienced one of the highest LRIs-DALYs rates in the LA region. Conclusions: In the last three decades, Peru experienced significant improvements in LE and child survival and an increase in the burden of NCDs and associated disability. The Peruvian healthcare system must be redesigned to respond to this epidemiological transition. The new design should aim to reduce premature deaths and maintain healthy longevity, focusing on effective coverage and treatment of NCDs and reducing and managing the related disability

Safety of primary anastomosis following emergency left sided colorectal resection: an international, multi-centre prospective audit.

This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: group, T. E. S. o. C. c. (2018). "Safety of primary anastomosis following emergency left sided colorectal resection: an international, multi-centre prospective audit." Colorectal Disease 20(S6): 47-57., which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1111/codi.1437. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived VersionsINTRODUCTION: Some evidence suggests that primary anastomosis following left sided colorectal resection in the emergency setting may be safe in selected patients, and confer favourable outcomes to permanent enterostomy. The aim of this study was to compare the major postoperative complication rate in patients undergoing end stoma vs primary anastomosis following emergency left sided colorectal resection. METHODS: A pre-planned analysis of the European Society of Coloproctology 2017 audit. Adult patients (> 16 years) who underwent emergency (unplanned, within 24 h of hospital admission) left sided colonic or rectal resection were included. The primary endpoint was the 30-day major complication rate (Clavien-Dindo grade 3 to 5). RESULTS: From 591 patients, 455 (77%) received an end stoma, 103 a primary anastomosis (17%) and 33 primary anastomosis with defunctioning stoma (6%). In multivariable models, anastomosis was associated with a similar major complication rate to end stoma (adjusted odds ratio for end stoma 1.52, 95%CI 0.83-2.79, P = 0.173). Although a defunctioning stoma was not associated with reduced anastomotic leak (12% defunctioned [4/33] vs 13% not defunctioned [13/97], adjusted odds ratio 2.19, 95%CI 0.43-11.02, P = 0.343), it was associated with less severe complications (75% [3/4] with defunctioning stoma, 86.7% anastomosis only [13/15]), a lower mortality rate (0% [0/4] vs 20% [3/15]), and fewer reoperations (50% [2/4] vs 73% [11/15]) when a leak did occur. CONCLUSIONS: Primary anastomosis in selected patients appears safe after left sided emergency colorectal resection. A defunctioning stoma might mitigate against risk of subsequent complications

The impact of conversion on the risk of major complication following laparoscopic colonic surgery: an international, multicentre prospective audit.

This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: The and E. S. o. C. c. groups (2018). "The impact of conversion on the risk of major complication following laparoscopic colonic surgery: an international, multicentre prospective audit." Colorectal Disease 20(S6): 69-89., which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1111/codi.14371. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions.BACKGROUND: Laparoscopy has now been implemented as a standard of care for elective colonic resection around the world. During the adoption period, studies showed that conversion may be detrimental to patients, with poorer outcomes than both laparoscopic completed or planned open surgery. The primary aim of this study was to determine whether laparoscopic conversion was associated with a higher major complication rate than planned open surgery in contemporary, international practice. METHODS: Combined analysis of the European Society of Coloproctology 2017 and 2015 audits. Patients were included if they underwent elective resection of a colonic segment from the caecum to the rectosigmoid junction with primary anastomosis. The primary outcome measure was the 30-day major complication rate, defined as Clavien-Dindo grade III-V. RESULTS: Of 3980 patients, 64% (2561/3980) underwent laparoscopic surgery and a laparoscopic conversion rate of 14% (359/2561). The major complication rate was highest after open surgery (laparoscopic 7.4%, converted 9.7%, open 11.6%, P < 0.001). After case mix adjustment in a multilevel model, only planned open (and not laparoscopic converted) surgery was associated with increased major complications in comparison to laparoscopic surgery (OR 1.64, 1.27-2.11, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Appropriate laparoscopic conversion should not be considered a treatment failure in modern practice. Conversion does not appear to place patients at increased risk of complications vs planned open surgery, supporting broadening of selection criteria for attempted laparoscopy in elective colonic resection

An international multicentre prospective audit of elective rectal cancer surgery; operative approach versus outcome, including transanal total mesorectal excision (TaTME)

IntroductionTransanal total mesorectal excision (TaTME) has rapidly emerged as a novel approach for rectal cancer surgery. Safety profiles are still emerging and more comparative data is urgently needed. This study aimed to compare indications and short-term outcomes of TaTME, open, laparoscopic, and robotic TME internationally.MethodsA pre-planned analysis of the European Society of Coloproctology (ESCP) 2017 audit was performed. Patients undergoing elective total mesorectal excision (TME) for malignancy between 1 January 2017 and 15 March 2017 by any operative approach were included. The primary outcome measure was anastomotic leak.ResultsOf 2579 included patients, 76.2% (1966/2579) underwent TME with restorative anastomosis of which 19.9% (312/1966) had a minimally invasive approach (laparoscopic or robotic) which included a transanal component (TaTME). Overall, 9.0% (175/1951, 15 missing outcome data) of patients suffered an anastomotic leak. On univariate analysis both laparoscopic TaTME (OR 1.61, 1.02-2.48, P=0.04) and robotic TaTME (OR 3.05, 1.10-7.34, P=0.02) were associated with a higher risk of anastomotic leak than non-transanal laparoscopic TME. However this association was lost in the mixed-effects model controlling for patient and disease factors (OR 1.23, 0.77-1.97, P=0.39 and OR 2.11, 0.79-5.62, P=0.14 respectively), whilst low rectal anastomosis (OR 2.72, 1.55-4.77, P<0.001) and male gender (OR 2.29, 1.52-3.44, P<0.001) remained strongly associated. The overall positive circumferential margin resection rate was 4.0%, which varied between operative approaches: laparoscopic 3.2%, transanal 3.8%, open 4.7%, robotic 1%.ConclusionThis contemporaneous international snapshot shows that uptake of the TaTME approach is widespread and is associated with surgically and pathologically acceptable results

Evaluating the incidence of pathological complete response in current international rectal cancer practice: the barriers to widespread safe deferral of surgery

This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: , which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1111/codi.14361. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions."Colorectal Disease © 2018 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland Introduction: The mainstay of management for locally advanced rectal cancer is chemoradiotherapy followed by surgical resection. Following chemoradiotherapy, a complete response may be detected clinically and radiologically (cCR) prior to surgery or pathologically after surgery (pCR). We aim to report the overall complete pathological response (pCR) rate and the reliability of detecting a cCR by conventional pre-operative imaging. Methods: A pre-planned analysis of the European Society of Coloproctology (ESCP) 2017 audit was performed. Patients treated by elective rectal resection were included. A pCR was defined as a ypT0 N0 EMVI negative primary tumour; a partial response represented any regression from baseline staging following chemoradiotherapy. The primary endpoint was the pCR rate. The secondary endpoint was agreement between post-treatment MRI restaging (yMRI) and final pathological staging. Results: Of 2572 patients undergoing rectal cancer surgery in 277 participating centres across 44 countries, 673 (26.2%) underwent chemoradiotherapy and surgery. The pCR rate was 10.3% (67/649), with a partial response in 35.9% (233/649) patients. Comparison of AJCC stage determined by post-treatment yMRI with final pathology showed understaging in 13% (55/429) and overstaging in 34% (148/429). Agreement between yMRI and final pathology for T-stage, N-stage, or AJCC status were each graded as ‘fair’ only (n = 429, Kappa 0.25, 0.26 and 0.35 respectively). Conclusion: The reported pCR rate of 10% highlights the potential for non-operative management in selected cases. The limited strength of agreement between basic conventional post-chemoradiotherapy imaging assessment techniques and pathology suggest alternative markers of response should be considered, in the context of controlled clinical trials

International prevalence and risk factors evaluation for drug-resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae pneumonia

Objective: Streptococcus pneumoniae is the most frequent bacterial pathogen isolated in subjects with Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) worldwide. Limited data are available regarding the current global burden and risk factors associated with drug-resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae (DRSP) in CAP subjects. We assessed the multinational prevalence and risk factors for DRSP-CAP in a multinational point-prevalence study. Design: The prevalence of DRSP-CAP was assessed by identification of DRSP in blood or respiratory samples among adults hospitalized with CAP in 54 countries. Prevalence and risk factors were compared among subjects that had microbiological testing and antibiotic susceptibility data. Multivariate logistic regressions were used to identify risk factors independently associated with DRSP-CAP. Results: 3,193 subjects were included in the study. The global prevalence of DRSP-CAP was 1.3% and continental prevalence rates were 7.0% in Africa, 1.2% in Asia, and 1.0% in South America, Europe, and North America, respectively. Macrolide resistance was most frequently identified in subjects with DRSP-CAP (0.6%) followed by penicillin resistance (0.5%). Subjects in Africa were more likely to have DRSP-CAP (OR: 7.6; 95% CI: 3.34-15.35, p < 0.001) when compared to centres representing other continents. Conclusions: This multinational point-prevalence study found a low global prevalence of DRSP-CAP that may impact guideline development and antimicrobial policies. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of The British Infection Association

Timing of nasogastric tube insertion and the risk of postoperative pneumonia: an international, prospective cohort study

Aim: Aspiration is a common cause of pneumonia in patients with postoperative ileus. Insertion of a nasogastric tube (NGT) is often performed, but this can be distressing. The aim of this study was to determine whether the timing of NGT insertion after surgery (before versus after vomiting) was associated with reduced rates of pneumonia in patients undergoing elective colorectal surgery. Method: This was a preplanned secondary analysis of a multicentre, prospective cohort study. Patients undergoing elective colorectal surgery between January 2018 and April 2018 were eligible. Those receiving a NGT were divided into three groups, based on the timing of the insertion: routine NGT (inserted at the time of surgery), prophylactic NGT (inserted after surgery but before vomiting) and reactive NGT (inserted after surgery and after vomiting). The primary outcome was the development of pneumonia within 30&nbsp;days of surgery, which was compared between the prophylactic and reactive NGT groups using multivariable regression analysis. Results: A total of 4715 patients were included in the analysis and 1536 (32.6%) received a NGT. These were classified as routine in 926 (60.3%), reactive in 461 (30.0%) and prophylactic in 149 (9.7%). Two hundred patients (4.2%) developed pneumonia (no NGT 2.7%; routine NGT 5.2%; reactive NGT 10.6%; prophylactic NGT 11.4%). After adjustment for confounding factors, no significant difference in pneumonia rates was detected between the prophylactic and reactive NGT groups (odds ratio 1.03, 95% CI 0.56\u20131.87, P&nbsp;=&nbsp;0.932). Conclusion: In patients who required the insertion of a NGT after surgery, prophylactic insertion was not associated with fewer cases of pneumonia within 30&nbsp;days of surgery compared with reactive insertion