Importance of long-term cycles for predicting water level dynamics in natural lakes

Lakes are disproportionately important ecosystems for humanity, containing 77% of the liquid surface freshwater on Earth and comprising key contributors to global biodiversity. With an ever-growing human demand for water and increasing climate uncertainty, there is pressing need for improved understanding of the underlying patterns of natural variability of water resources and consideration of their implications for water resource management and conservation. Here we use Bayesian harmonic regression models to characterise water level dynamics and study the influence of cyclic components in confounding estimation of long-term directional trends in water levels in natural Irish lakes. We found that the lakes were characterised by a common and well-defined annual seasonality and several inter-annual and inter-decadal cycles with strong transient behaviour over time. Importantly, failing to account for the longer-term cyclic components produced a significant overall underestimation of the trend effect. Our findings demonstrate the importance of contextualising lake water resource management to the specific physical setting of lakes

Spatially Structured Environmental Variation Plays a Prominent Role on the Biodiversity of Freshwater Macrophytes Across China

Different non-mutually exclusive mechanisms interactively shape large-scale diversity patterns. However, our understanding of multi-faceted diversity and their determinants in aquatic ecosystems is far from complete compared to terrestrial ones. Here, we use variation partitioning based on redundancy analysis to analyze the relative contribution of environmental and spatial variables to the patterns of phylogenetic, taxonomic, and functional diversity in macrophyte assemblages across 214 Chinese watersheds. We found extremely high spatial congruence among most aspects of biodiversity, with some important exceptions. We then used variation partitioning to estimate the proportions of variation in macrophyte biodiversity explained by environmental and spatial variables. All diversity facets were optimally explained by spatially structured environmental variables, not the pure environment effect, implying that macrophyte are taxonomically, phylogenetically, and functionally clustered in space, which might be the result of the interaction of environmental and/or evolutionary drives. We demonstrate that macrophytes might face extensive dispersal limitations across watersheds such as topography and habitat fragmentation and availability

Stronger adaptive response among small-scale fishers experiencing greater climate change hazard exposure

Progressive climate-driven environmental changes are threatening the global livelihoods of small-scale fishers, yet how their adaptation responses vary in relation to hazard exposure is poorly understood. We use a systematic review approach to identify a global data set of 301 reported adaptation responses (remaining, adaptive, and transformative) of small-scale fishers to climate change and analyse their spatial agreement with estimated geographical location of global coastal hotspot areas for specific climate change hazards associated to those responses (long-term trends in sea surface temperature, cumulative intensity of marine heatwaves, frequency of tropical storms, and intensity of associated storm surges). Only 37% of responses were found in climate change hotspots. Despite this, our results evidence that fishers are responding more passively in areas with lower exposure levels to abrupt climatic events. The relative proportion of adaptive and transformative responses increase with climate change hazard exposure

Eutrophication causes invertebrate biodiversity loss and decreases cross-taxon congruence across anthropogenically-disturbed lakes

Highlights • The invertebrate biodiversity across 261 lakes in the Lake Taihu basin was studied. • The α diversity was consistent with the intermediate disturbance hypothesis. • Significant cross-taxon congruence was found between zooplankton and zoobenthos. • Zoobenthos were more sensitive to nutrient increases compared with zooplankton. • Eutrophication causes biodiversity loss and decreases cross-taxon congruence.Eutrophication is a major problem currently impacting many surface water ecosystems. Impacts of increased nutrient concentrations on biodiversity may differ between different scales, different organism groups, and different trophic states. Surveys at different spatial scales have suggested that biodiversity of different taxa may exhibit significant cross-taxon congruence. In our study, we examined the diversity of zooplankton and zoobenthos across 261 lakes in the Lake Taihu watershed, an area that is undergoing a severe eutrophication process. We tested the cross-taxon congruence in species richness and Shannon-Wiener diversity between zooplankton and zoobenthos along a nutrient gradient across the lakes. Our findings were consistent with the intermediate disturbance hypothesis, considering nutrient input as the disturbance. Also, we found significant cross-taxon congruence between zooplankton and zoobenthos diversities. Our results confirmed that excess nutrient levels resulted in diversity loss and community simplification. Zoobenthos were more sensitive to nutrient increases compared with zooplankton, which decreased cross-taxon congruence because these organism groups did not respond similarly to the anthropogenic disturbance

Anti-MPER antibodies with heterogeneous neutralization capacity are detectable in most untreated HIV-1 infected individuals

Background The MPER region of the HIV-1 envelope glycoprotein gp41 is targeted by broadly neutralizing antibodies. However, the localization of this epitope in a hydrophobic environment seems to hamper the elicitation of these antibodies in HIV infected individuals. We have quantified and characterized anti-MPER antibodies by ELISA and by flow cytometry using a collection of mini gp41-derived proteins expressed on the surface of 293T cells. Longitudinal plasma samples from 35 HIV-1 infected individuals were assayed for MPER recognition and MPER-dependent neutralizing capacity using HIV-2 viruses engrafted with HIV-1 MPER sequences. Results Miniproteins devoid of the cysteine loop of gp41 exposed the MPER on 293T cell membrane. Anti-MPER antibodies were identified in most individuals and were stable when analyzed in longitudinal samples. The magnitude of the responses was strongly correlated with the global response to the HIV-1 envelope glycoprotein, suggesting no specific limitation for anti-MPER antibodies. Peptide mapping showed poor recognition of the C-terminal MPER moiety and a wide presence of antibodies against the 2F5 epitope. However, antibody titers failed to correlate with 2F5-blocking activity and, more importantly, with the specific neutralization of HIV-2 chimeric viruses bearing the HIV-1 MPER sequence; suggesting a strong functional heterogeneity in anti-MPER humoral responses. Conclusions Anti-MPER antibodies can be detected in the vast majority of HIV-1 infected individuals and are generated in the context of the global anti-Env response. However, the neutralizing capacity is heterogeneous suggesting that eliciting neutralizing anti-MPER antibodies by immunization might require refinement of immunogens to skip nonneutralizing responses

Gp120/CD4 blocking antibodies are frequently elicited in ART-naïve chronically HIV-1 infected individuals

Antibodies with the ability to block the interaction of HIV-1 envelope glycoprotein (Env) gp120 with CD4, including those overlapping the CD4 binding site (CD4bs antibodies), can protect from infection by HIV-1, and their elicitation may be an interesting goal for any vaccination strategy. To identify gp120/CD4 blocking antibodies in plasma samples from HIV-1 infected individuals we have developed a competitive flow cytometry-based functional assay. In a cohort of treatment-naïve chronically infected patients, we showed that gp120/CD4 blocking antibodies were frequently elicited (detected in 97% plasma samples) and correlated with binding to trimeric HIV-1 envelope glycoproteins. However, no correlation was observed between functional CD4 binding blockade data and titer of CD4bs antibodies determined by ELISA using resurfaced gp120 proteins. Consistently, plasma samples lacking CD4bs antibodies were able to block the interaction between gp120 and its receptor, indicating that antibodies recognizing other epitopes, such as PGT126 and PG16, can also play the same role. Antibodies blocking CD4 binding increased over time and correlated positively with the capacity of plasma samples to neutralize the laboratory-adapted NL4.3 and BaL virus isolates, suggesting their potential contribution to the neutralizing workforce of plasma in vivo. Determining whether this response can be boosted to achieve broadly neutralizing antibodies may provide valuable information for the design of new strategies aimed to improve the anti-HIV-1 humoral response and to develop a successful HIV-1 vaccine

Responses of Marine Organisms to Climate Change across Oceans

Climate change is driving changes in the physical and chemical properties of the ocean that have consequences for marine ecosystems. Here, we review evidence for the responses of marine life to recent climate change across ocean regions, from tropical seas to polar oceans. We consider observed changes in calcification rates, demography, abundance, distribution, and phenology of marine species. We draw on a database of observed climate change impacts on marine species, supplemented with evidence in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We discuss factors that limit or facilitate species’ responses, such as fishing pressure, the availability of prey, habitat, light and other resources, and dispersal by ocean currents. We find that general trends in species’ responses are consistent with expectations from climate change, including shifts in distribution to higher latitudes and to deeper locations, advances in spring phenology, declines in calcification, and increases in the abundance of warm-water species. The volume and type of evidence associated with species responses to climate change is variable across ocean regions and taxonomic groups, with predominance of evidence derived from the heavily-studied north Atlantic Ocean. Most investigations of the impact of climate change being associated with the impacts of changing temperature, with few observations of effects of changing oxygen, wave climate, precipitation (coastal waters), or ocean acidification. Observations of species responses that have been linked to anthropogenic climate change are widespread, but are still lacking for some taxonomic groups (e.g., phytoplankton, benthic invertebrates, marine mammals)

Ethnicity and Clinical Outcomes in Patients Hospitalized for COVID-19 in Spain: Results from the Multicenter SEMI-COVID-19 Registry

Background: This work aims to analyze clinical outcomes according to ethnic groups in patients hospitalized for COVID-19 in Spain. (2) Methods: This nationwide, retrospective, multicenter, observational study analyzed hospitalized patients with confirmed COVID-19 in 150 Spanish hospitals (SEMI-COVID-19 Registry) from 1 March 2020 to 31 December 2021. Clinical outcomes were assessed according to ethnicity (Latin Americans, Sub-Saharan Africans, Asians, North Africans, Europeans). The outcomes were in-hospital mortality (IHM), intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and the use of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). Associations between ethnic groups and clinical outcomes adjusted for patient characteristics and baseline Charlson Comorbidity Index values and wave were evaluated using logistic regression. (3) Results: Of 23,953 patients (median age 69.5 years, 42.9% women), 7.0% were Latin American, 1.2% were North African, 0.5% were Asian, 0.5% were Sub-Saharan African, and 89.7% were European. Ethnic minority patients were significantly younger than European patients (median (IQR) age 49.1 (40.5-58.9) to 57.1 (44.1-67.1) vs. 71.5 (59.5-81.4) years, p < 0.001). The unadjusted IHM was higher in European (21.6%) versus North African (11.4%), Asian (10.9%), Latin American (7.1%), and Sub-Saharan African (3.2%) patients. After further adjustment, the IHM was lower in Sub-Saharan African (OR 0.28 (0.10-0.79), p = 0.017) versus European patients, while ICU admission rates were higher in Latin American and North African versus European patients (OR (95%CI) 1.37 (1.17-1.60), p < 0.001) and (OR (95%CI) 1.74 (1.26-2.41), p < 0.001). Moreover, Latin American patients were 39% more likely than European patients to use IMV (OR (95%CI) 1.43 (1.21-1.71), p < 0.001). (4) Conclusion: The adjusted IHM was similar in all groups except for Sub-Saharan Africans, who had lower IHM. Latin American patients were admitted to the ICU and required IMV more often

Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity

The reorganization of patterns of species diversity driven by anthropogenic climate change, and the consequences for humans, are not yet fully understood or appreciated. Nevertheless, changes in climate conditions are useful for predicting shifts in species distributions at global and local scales. Here we use the velocity of climate change to derive spatial trajectories for climatic niches from 1960 to 2009 (ref. 7) and from 2006 to 2100, and use the properties of these trajectories to infer changes in species distributions. Coastlines act as barriers and locally cooler areas act as attractors for trajectories, creating source and sink areas for local climatic conditions. Climate source areas indicate where locally novel conditions are not connected to areas where similar climates previously occurred, and are thereby inaccessible to climate migrants tracking isotherms: 16% of global surface area for 1960 to 2009, and 34% of ocean for the \u27business as usual\u27 climate scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5)8 representing continued use of fossil fuels without mitigation. Climate sink areas are where climate conditions locally disappear, potentially blocking the movement of climate migrants. Sink areas comprise 1.0% of ocean area and 3.6% of land and are prevalent on coasts and high ground. Using this approach to infer shifts in species distributions gives global and regional maps of the expected direction and rate of shifts of climate migrants, and suggests areas of potential loss of species richness

Development and validation of a clinical score to estimate progression to severe or critical state in Covid-19 pneumonia hospitalized patients

The prognosis of a patient with Covid-19 pneumonia is uncertain. Our objective was to establish a predictive model of disease progression to facilitate early decision-making. A retrospective study was performed of patients admitted with Covid-19 pneumonia, classified as severe (admission to the intensive care unit, mechanic invasive ventilation, or death) or non-severe. A predictive model based on clinical, analytical, and radiological parameters was built. The probability of progression to severe disease was estimated by logistic regression analysis. Calibration and discrimination (receiver operating characteristics curves and AUC) were assessed to determine model performance. During the study period 1,152 patients presented with Covid-19 infection, of whom 229 (19.9%) were admitted for pneumonia. During hospitalization, 51 (22.3%) progressed to severe disease, of whom 26 required ICU care (11.4); 17 (7.4%) underwent invasive mechanical ventilation, and 32 (14%) died of any cause. Five predictors determined within 24 hours of admission were identified: Diabetes, Age, Lymphocyte count, SaO2, and pH (DALSH score). The prediction model showed a good clinical performance, including discrimination (AUC 0.87 CI 0.81, 0.92) and calibration (Brier score = 0.11). In total, 0%, 12%, and 50% of patients with severity risk scores ≤5%, 6-25%, and >25% exhibited disease progression, respectively. A simple risk score based on five factors predicts disease progression and facilitates early decision-making according to prognosis.Carlos III Health Institute, Spain, Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (SPAIN) and the European Regional Development Fund (FEDER)Instituto de Salud Carlos II