Developing a Logistics Risk Assessment Tool

Economies around the world have thrived in the wake of the development and keen understanding of effective supply chain management practices. As a result, organizations have become more dependent on other organizations to move their products and services to completion due to complex sourcing and shipping arrangements that have precipitated from the formation of sophisticated supply chains. A supply chain is in general a flow of products or services. When this flow is disrupted or halted, disastrous consequences can ensue. In the worst cases, such as with a disaster relief organization like the American Red Cross, disruptions in supply chains could mean the loss of human life. Although more supply chain managers recognize that disruptions along supply chains can cause millions of dollars in lost revenue and large losses of goodwill, very few know exactly what risks their organizations are exposed to. The aim of this research is to better understand what risks are present along each point in the supply chain – both internally and externally – and to develop a way to assess those risks. Furthermore, this research aims to understand how to mitigate these risks for organizations. Ultimately, the goal is to employ these findings in the form of a web tool that surveys users about their supply chain, assesses their current levels of risk, and suggests ways to mitigate this risk

Validation of a deep neural network-based algorithm supporting clinical management of adnexal mass

BackgroundConservative management of adnexal mass is warranted when there is imaging-based and clinical evidence of benign characteristics. Malignancy risk is, however, a concern due to the mortality rate of ovarian cancer. Malignancy occurs in 10–15% of adnexal masses that go to surgery, whereas the rate of malignancy is much lower in masses clinically characterized as benign or indeterminate. Additional diagnostic tests could assist conservative management of these patients. Here we report the clinical validation of OvaWatch, a multivariate index assay, with real-world evidence of performance that supports conservative management of adnexal masses.MethodsOvaWatch utilizes a previously characterized neural network-based algorithm combining serum biomarkers and clinical covariates and was used to examine malignancy risk in prospective and retrospective samples of patients with an adnexal mass. Retrospective data sets were assembled from previous studies using patients who had adnexal mass and were scheduled for surgery. The prospective study was a multi-center trial of women with adnexal mass as identified on clinical examination and indeterminate or asymptomatic by imaging. The performance to detect ovarian malignancy was evaluated at a previously validated score threshold.ResultsIn retrospective, low prevalence (N = 1,453, 1.5% malignancy rate) data from patients that received an independent physician assessment of benign, OvaWatch has a sensitivity of 81.8% [95% confidence interval (CI) 65.1–92.7] for identifying a histologically confirmed malignancy, and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 99.7%. OvaWatch identified 18/22 malignancies missed by physician assessment. A prospective data set had 501 patients where 106 patients with adnexal mass went for surgery. The prevalence was 2% (10 malignancies). The sensitivity of OvaWatch for malignancy was 40% (95% CI: 16.8–68.7%), and the specificity was 87% (95% CI: 83.7–89.7) when patients were included in the analysis who did not go to surgery and were evaluated as benign. The NPV remained 98.6% (95% CI: 97.0–99.4%). An independent analysis set with a high prevalence (45.8%) the NPV value was 87.8% (95% CI: 95% CI: 75.8–94.3%).ConclusionOvaWatch demonstrated high NPV across diverse data sets and promises utility as an effective diagnostic test supporting management of suspected benign or indeterminate mass to safely decrease or delay unnecessary surgeries

Association studies of up to 1.2 million individuals yield new insights into the genetic etiology of tobacco and alcohol use.

Tobacco and alcohol use are leading causes of mortality that influence risk for many complex diseases and disorders1. They are heritable2,3 and etiologically related4,5 behaviors that have been resistant to gene discovery efforts6-11. In sample sizes up to 1.2 million individuals, we discovered 566 genetic variants in 406 loci associated with multiple stages of tobacco use (initiation, cessation, and heaviness) as well as alcohol use, with 150 loci evidencing pleiotropic association. Smoking phenotypes were positively genetically correlated with many health conditions, whereas alcohol use was negatively correlated with these conditions, such that increased genetic risk for alcohol use is associated with lower disease risk. We report evidence for the involvement of many systems in tobacco and alcohol use, including genes involved in nicotinic, dopaminergic, and glutamatergic neurotransmission. The results provide a solid starting point to evaluate the effects of these loci in model organisms and more precise substance use measures

A large genome-wide association study of age-related macular degeneration highlights contributions of rare and common variants.

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Nature Publishing Group via http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ng.3448Advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of blindness in the elderly, with limited therapeutic options. Here we report on a study of >12 million variants, including 163,714 directly genotyped, mostly rare, protein-altering variants. Analyzing 16,144 patients and 17,832 controls, we identify 52 independently associated common and rare variants (P < 5 × 10(-8)) distributed across 34 loci. Although wet and dry AMD subtypes exhibit predominantly shared genetics, we identify the first genetic association signal specific to wet AMD, near MMP9 (difference P value = 4.1 × 10(-10)). Very rare coding variants (frequency <0.1%) in CFH, CFI and TIMP3 suggest causal roles for these genes, as does a splice variant in SLC16A8. Our results support the hypothesis that rare coding variants can pinpoint causal genes within known genetic loci and illustrate that applying the approach systematically to detect new loci requires extremely large sample sizes.We thank all participants of all the studies included for enabling this research by their participation in these studies. Computer resources for this project have been provided by the high-performance computing centers of the University of Michigan and the University of Regensburg. Group-specific acknowledgments can be found in the Supplementary Note. The Center for Inherited Diseases Research (CIDR) Program contract number is HHSN268201200008I. This and the main consortium work were predominantly funded by 1X01HG006934-01 to G.R.A. and R01 EY022310 to J.L.H

Physical activity attenuates the influence of FTO variants on obesity risk: A meta-analysis of 218,166 adults and 19,268 children

Background: The FTO gene harbors the strongest known susceptibility locus for obesity. While many individual studies have suggested that physical activity (PA) may attenuate the effect of FTO on obesity risk, other studies have not been able to confirm this interaction. To confirm or refute unambiguously whether PA attenuates the association of FTO with obesity risk, we meta-analyzed data from 45 studies of adults (n = 218,166) and nine studies of children and adolescents (n = 19,268). Methods and Findings: All studies identified to have data on the FTO rs9939609 variant (or any proxy [r2>0.8]) and PA were invited to participate, regardless of ethnicity or age of the participants. PA was standardized by categorizing it into a dichotomous variable (physically inactive versus active) in each study. Overall, 25% of adults and 13% of children were categorized as inactive. Interaction analyses were performed within each study by including the FTO×PA interaction term in an additive model, adjusting for age and sex. Subsequently, random effects meta-analysis was used to pool the interaction terms. In adults, the minor (A-) allele of rs9939609 increased the odds of obesity by 1.23-fold/allele (95% CI 1.20-1.26), but PA attenuated this effect (pinteraction= 0.001). More specifically, the minor allele of rs9939609 increased the odds of obesity less in the physically active group (odds ratio = 1.22/allele, 95% CI 1.19-1.25) than in the inactive group (odds ratio = 1.30/allele, 95% CI 1.24-1.36). No such interaction was found in children and adolescents. Concl

Association studies of up to 1.2 million individuals yield new insights into the genetic etiology of tobacco and alcohol use

Tobacco and alcohol use are leading causes of mortality that influence risk for many complex diseases and disorders 1 . They are heritable 2,3 and etiologically related 4,5 behaviors that have been resistant to gene discovery efforts 6–11 . In sample sizes up to 1.2 million individuals, we discovered 566 genetic variants in 406 loci associated with multiple stages of tobacco use (initiation, cessation, and heaviness) as well as alcohol use, with 150 loci evidencing pleiotropic association. Smoking phenotypes were positively genetically correlated with many health conditions, whereas alcohol use was negatively correlated with these conditions, such that increased genetic risk for alcohol use is associated with lower disease risk. We report evidence for the involvement of many systems in tobacco and alcohol use, including genes involved in nicotinic, dopaminergic, and glutamatergic neurotransmission. The results provide a solid starting point to evaluate the effects of these loci in model organisms and more precise substance use measures

Novel Common Genetic Susceptibility Loci for Colorectal Cancer

BACKGROUND: Previous genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 42 loci (P < 5 × 10-8) associated with risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). Expanded consortium efforts facilitating the discovery of additional susceptibility loci may capture unexplained familial risk. METHODS: We conducted a GWAS in European descent CRC cases and control subjects using a discovery-replication design, followed by examination of novel findings in a multiethnic sample (cumulative n = 163 315). In the discovery stage (36 948 case subjects/30 864 control subjects), we identified genetic variants with a minor allele frequency of 1% or greater associated with risk of CRC using logistic regression followed by a fixed-effects inverse variance weighted meta-analysis. All novel independent variants reaching genome-wide statistical significance (two-sided P < 5 × 10-8) were tested for replication in separate European ancestry samples (12 952 case subjects/48 383 control subjects). Next, we examined the generalizability of discovered variants in East Asians, African Americans, and Hispanics (12 085 case subjects/22 083 control subjects). Finally, we examined the contributions of novel risk variants to familial relative risk and examined the prediction capabilities of a polygenic risk score. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS: The discovery GWAS identified 11 variants associated with CRC at P < 5 × 10-8, of which nine (at 4q22.2/5p15.33/5p13.1/6p21.31/6p12.1/10q11.23/12q24.21/16q24.1/20q13.13) independently replicated at a P value of less than .05. Multiethnic follow-up supported the generalizability of discovery findings. These results demonstrated a 14.7% increase in familial relative risk explained by common risk alleles from 10.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 7.9% to 13.7%; known variants) to 11.9% (95% CI = 9.2% to 15.5%; known and novel variants). A polygenic risk score identified 4.3% of the population at an odds ratio for developing CRC of at least 2.0. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides insight into the architecture of common genetic variation contributing to CRC etiology and improves risk prediction for individualized screenin

Genome-wide analysis yields new loci associating with aortic valve stenosis

Aortic valve stenosis (AS) is the most common valvular heart disease, and valve replacement is the only definitive treatment. Here we report a large genome-wide association (GWA) study of 2,457 Icelandic AS cases and 349,342 controls with a follow-up in up to 4,850 cases and 451,731 controls of European ancestry. We identify two new AS loci, on chromosome 1p21 near PALMD (rs7543130; odds ratio (OR) = 1.20, P = 1.2 × 10−22) and on chromosome 2q22 in TEX41 (rs1830321; OR = 1.15, P = 1.8 × 10−13). Rs7543130 also associates with bicuspid aortic valve (BAV) (OR = 1.28, P = 6.6 × 10−10) and aortic root diameter (P = 1.30 × 10−8), and rs1830321 associates with BAV (OR = 1.12, P = 5.3 × 10−3) and coronary artery disease (OR = 1.05, P = 9.3 × 10−5). The results implicate both cardiac developmental abnormalities and atherosclerosis-like processes in the pathogenesis of AS. We show that several pathways are shared by CAD and AS. Causal analysis suggests that the shared risk factors of Lp(a) and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol contribute substantially to the frequent co-occurence of these diseases

Physical activity attenuates the influence of FTO variants on obesity risk : a meta-analysis of 218,166 adults and 19,268 children

BACKGROUND: The FTO gene harbors the strongest known susceptibility locus for obesity. While many individual studies have suggested that physical activity (PA) may attenuate the effect of FTO on obesity risk, other studies have not been able to confirm this interaction. To confirm or refute unambiguously whether PA attenuates the association of FTO with obesity risk, we meta-analyzed data from 45 studies of adults (n = 218,166) and nine studies of children and adolescents (n = 19,268). METHODS AND FINDINGS: All studies identified to have data on the FTO rs9939609 variant (or any proxy [r(2)>0.8]) and PA were invited to participate, regardless of ethnicity or age of the participants. PA was standardized by categorizing it into a dichotomous variable (physically inactive versus active) in each study. Overall, 25% of adults and 13% of children were categorized as inactive. Interaction analyses were performed within each study by including the FTO×PA interaction term in an additive model, adjusting for age and sex. Subsequently, random effects meta-analysis was used to pool the interaction terms. In adults, the minor (A-) allele of rs9939609 increased the odds of obesity by 1.23-fold/allele (95% CI 1.20-1.26), but PA attenuated this effect (p(interaction)  = 0.001). More specifically, the minor allele of rs9939609 increased the odds of obesity less in the physically active group (odds ratio  = 1.22/allele, 95% CI 1.19-1.25) than in the inactive group (odds ratio  = 1.30/allele, 95% CI 1.24-1.36). No such interaction was found in children and adolescents. CONCLUSIONS: The association of the FTO risk allele with the odds of obesity is attenuated by 27% in physically active adults, highlighting the importance of PA in particular in those genetically predisposed to obesity.Peer reviewe

Stroke genetics informs drug discovery and risk prediction across ancestries

Previous genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of stroke - the second leading cause of death worldwide - were conducted predominantly in populations of European ancestry(1,2). Here, in cross-ancestry GWAS meta-analyses of 110,182 patients who have had a stroke (five ancestries, 33% non-European) and 1,503,898 control individuals, we identify association signals for stroke and its subtypes at 89 (61 new) independent loci: 60 in primary inverse-variance-weighted analyses and 29 in secondary meta-regression and multitrait analyses. On the basis of internal cross-ancestry validation and an independent follow-up in 89,084 additional cases of stroke (30% non-European) and 1,013,843 control individuals, 87% of the primary stroke risk loci and 60% of the secondary stroke risk loci were replicated (P < 0.05). Effect sizes were highly correlated across ancestries. Cross-ancestry fine-mapping, in silico mutagenesis analysis(3), and transcriptome-wide and proteome-wide association analyses revealed putative causal genes (such as SH3PXD2A and FURIN) and variants (such as at GRK5 and NOS3). Using a three-pronged approach(4), we provide genetic evidence for putative drug effects, highlighting F11, KLKB1, PROC, GP1BA, LAMC2 and VCAM1 as possible targets, with drugs already under investigation for stroke for F11 and PROC. A polygenic score integrating cross-ancestry and ancestry-specific stroke GWASs with vascular-risk factor GWASs (integrative polygenic scores) strongly predicted ischaemic stroke in populations of European, East Asian and African ancestry(5). Stroke genetic risk scores were predictive of ischaemic stroke independent of clinical risk factors in 52,600 clinical-trial participants with cardiometabolic disease. Our results provide insights to inform biology, reveal potential drug targets and derive genetic risk prediction tools across ancestries.</p