A Survey of Cost Estimating Methodologies for Distributed Spacecraft Missions

Satellite constellations and Distributed Spacecraft Mission (DSM) architectures offer unique benefits to Earth observation scientists and unique challenges to cost estimators. The Cost and Risk (CR) module of the Tradespace Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C) being developed by NASA Goddard seeks to address some of these challenges by providing a new approach to cost modeling, which aggregates existing Cost Estimating Relationships (CER) from respected sources, cost estimating best practices, and data from existing and proposed satellite designs. Cost estimation through this tool is approached from two perspectives: parametric cost estimating relationships and analogous cost estimation techniques. The dual approach utilized within the TAT-C CR module is intended to address prevailing concerns regarding early design stage cost estimates, and offer increased transparency and fidelity by offering two preliminary perspectives on mission cost. This work outlines the existing cost model, details assumptions built into the model, and explains what measures have been taken to address the particular challenges of constellation cost estimating. The risk estimation portion of the TAT-C CR module is still in development and will be presented in future work. The cost estimate produced by the CR module is not intended to be an exact mission valuation, but rather a comparative tool to assist in the exploration of the constellation design tradespace. Previous work has noted that estimating the cost of satellite constellations is difficult given that no comprehensive model for constellation cost estimation has yet been developed, and as such, quantitative assessment of multiple spacecraft missions has many remaining areas of uncertainty. By incorporating well-established CERs with preliminary approaches to approaching these uncertainties, the CR module offers more complete approach to constellation costing than has previously been available to mission architects or Earth scientists seeking to leverage the capabilities of multiple spacecraft working in support of a common goal

Clinical, radiologic, pathologic, and molecular characteristics of long-term survivors of diffuse intrinsic pontine glioma (DIPG): a collaborative report from the International and European Society for Pediatric Oncology DIPG registries

Purpose Diffuse intrinsic pontine glioma (DIPG) is a brainstem malignancy with a median survival of < 1 year. The International and European Society for Pediatric Oncology DIPG Registries collaborated to compare clinical, radiologic, and histomolecular characteristics between short-term survivors (STSs) and long-term survivors (LTSs). Materials and Methods Data abstracted from registry databases included patients from North America, Australia, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Italy, France, the United Kingdom, and Croatia. Results Among 1,130 pediatric and young adults with radiographically confirmed DIPG, 122 (11%) were excluded. Of the 1,008 remaining patients, 101 (10%) were LTSs (survival ≥ 2 years). Median survival time was 11 months (interquartile range, 7.5 to 16 months), and 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-year survival rates were 42.3% (95% CI, 38.1% to 44.1%), 9.6% (95% CI, 7.8% to 11.3%), 4.3% (95% CI, 3.2% to 5.8%), 3.2% (95% CI, 2.4% to 4.6%), and 2.2% (95% CI, 1.4% to 3.4%), respectively. LTSs, compared with STSs, more commonly presented at age < 3 or > 10 years (11% v 3% and 33% v 23%, respectively; P < .001) and with longer symptom duration ( P < .001). STSs, compared with LTSs, more commonly presented with cranial nerve palsy (83% v 73%, respectively; P = .008), ring enhancement (38% v 23%, respectively; P = .007), necrosis (42% v 26%, respectively; P = .009), and extrapontine extension (92% v 86%, respectively; P = .04). LTSs more commonly received systemic therapy at diagnosis (88% v 75% for STSs; P = .005). Biopsies and autopsies were performed in 299 patients (30%) and 77 patients (10%), respectively; 181 tumors (48%) were molecularly characterized. LTSs were more likely to harbor a HIST1H3B mutation (odds ratio, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.1 to 1.5; P = .002). Conclusion We report clinical, radiologic, and molecular factors that correlate with survival in children and young adults with DIPG, which are important for risk stratification in future clinical trials

Using Verbal Autopsy to Measure Causes of Death: the Comparative Performance of Existing Methods.

Monitoring progress with disease and injury reduction in many populations will require widespread use of verbal autopsy (VA). Multiple methods have been developed for assigning cause of death from a VA but their application is restricted by uncertainty about their reliability. We investigated the validity of five automated VA methods for assigning cause of death: InterVA-4, Random Forest (RF), Simplified Symptom Pattern (SSP), Tariff method (Tariff), and King-Lu (KL), in addition to physician review of VA forms (PCVA), based on 12,535 cases from diverse populations for which the true cause of death had been reliably established. For adults, children, neonates and stillbirths, performance was assessed separately for individuals using sensitivity, specificity, Kappa, and chance-corrected concordance (CCC) and for populations using cause specific mortality fraction (CSMF) accuracy, with and without additional diagnostic information from prior contact with health services. A total of 500 train-test splits were used to ensure that results are robust to variation in the underlying cause of death distribution. Three automated diagnostic methods, Tariff, SSP, and RF, but not InterVA-4, performed better than physician review in all age groups, study sites, and for the majority of causes of death studied. For adults, CSMF accuracy ranged from 0.764 to 0.770, compared with 0.680 for PCVA and 0.625 for InterVA; CCC varied from 49.2% to 54.1%, compared with 42.2% for PCVA, and 23.8% for InterVA. For children, CSMF accuracy was 0.783 for Tariff, 0.678 for PCVA, and 0.520 for InterVA; CCC was 52.5% for Tariff, 44.5% for PCVA, and 30.3% for InterVA. For neonates, CSMF accuracy was 0.817 for Tariff, 0.719 for PCVA, and 0.629 for InterVA; CCC varied from 47.3% to 50.3% for the three automated methods, 29.3% for PCVA, and 19.4% for InterVA. The method with the highest sensitivity for a specific cause varied by cause. Physician review of verbal autopsy questionnaires is less accurate than automated methods in determining both individual and population causes of death. Overall, Tariff performs as well or better than other methods and should be widely applied in routine mortality surveillance systems with poor cause of death certification practices

Emergence of second-generation low earth orbit satellite constellations : a prospective technical, economic, and policy analysis

Thesis: S.M., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2018.Thesis: S.M. in Technology and Policy, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Engineering, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Technology and Policy Program, 2018.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (pages 133-145).Modern proposals for Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite constellations underscore the tremendous potential and versatility of distributed spacecraft missions (DSMs), but they have also begun to stress the limits of the existing development paradigm. A new generation of LEO constellations is emerging, and understanding the related technical, economic, and policy landscapes will be critical to fostering their success. The most significant value of this research effort comes from its breadth. LEO constellations are becoming essential tools for a wide range of applications, and this work seeks to examine the diverse set of topics facing modern constellation stakeholders. Through a multidisciplinary, systems engineering evaluation, this thesis synthesizes current knowledge gaps and questions related to second-generation LEO constellations. The investigation begins with a discussion of the historical development of DSMs, and three distinct eras of constellation use are identified. The initial time period, 1959 to 1996, captures the early DSMs that framed the development of modern systems. The first generation spans from 1997 to 2009. It begins with the installation of the first commercial, telecommunications constellations and demonstrates logistic growth for commercial DSM member spacecraft. Growth rates surge again as the second generation begins in 2010, and the data reflect current trends toward commercial, remote-sensing applications of DSM systems. The second generation of LEO constellations coincides with an approximately 189% increase in the annual NGSO satellite launch rate and a 92% increase in the number of constellation systems initialized each year over the first generation. This work continues by underscoring technologies that have enabled this growth through a survey of relevant literature and patent filings. Contemporary issues in constellation technology policy are also examined. Through a series of cost and risk focused case studies, limitations within the existing development and maintenance paradigms are illustrated. The new generation of constellations is challenging the assumptions that have traditionally guided such analyses, and opportunities for further framework development are discussed. This thesis represents a contribution to the advancement of constellation systems by assessing the viability of the existing paradigm and identifying critical areas of future research.Supported by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Grant No. 1122374by Veronica L. Foreman.S.M.S.M. in Technology and Polic

Future and potential spending on health 2015-40: development assistance for health, and government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending in 184 countries

Background The amount of resources, particularly prepaid resources, available for health can affect access to health care and health outcomes. Although health spending tends to increase with economic development, tremendous variation exists among health financing systems. Estimates of future spending can be beneficial for policy makers and planners, and can identify financing gaps. In this study, we estimate future gross domestic product (GDP), all-sector government spending, and health spending disaggregated by source, and we compare expected future spending to potential future spending. Methods We extracted GDP, government spending in 184 countries from 1980–2015, and health spend data from 1995–2014. We used a series of ensemble models to estimate future GDP, all-sector government spending, development assistance for health, and government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending through 2040. We used frontier analyses to identify patterns exhibited by the countries that dedicate the most funding to health, and used these frontiers to estimate potential health spending for each low-income or middle-income country. All estimates are inflation and purchasing power adjusted. Findings We estimated that global spending on health will increase from US$9·21 trillion in 2014 to$24·24 trillion (uncertainty interval [UI] 20·47–29·72) in 2040. We expect per capita health spending to increase fastest in upper-middle-income countries, at 5·3% (UI 4·1–6·8) per year. This growth is driven by continued growth in GDP, government spending, and government health spending. Lower-middle income countries are expected to grow at 4·2% (3·8–4·9). High-income countries are expected to grow at 2·1% (UI 1·8–2·4) and low-income countries are expected to grow at 1·8% (1·0–2·8). Despite this growth, health spending per capita in low-income countries is expected to remain low, at $154 (UI 133–181) per capita in 2030 and$195 (157–258) per capita in 2040. Increases in national health spending to reach the level of the countries who spend the most on health, relative to their level of economic development, would mean $321 (157–258) per capita was available for health in 2040 in low-income countries. Interpretation Health spending is associated with economic development but past trends and relationships suggest that spending will remain variable, and low in some low-resource settings. Policy change could lead to increased health spending, although for the poorest countries external support might remain essential.</p

Observation of Ξb0→Ξc+Ds−\Xi_b^0 \rightarrow \Xi_c^+ D_s^- and Ξb−→Ξc0Ds−\Xi_b^- \rightarrow \Xi_c^0 D_s^- decays

International audienceThe $\Xi_b^0 \rightarrow \Xi_c^+ D_s^-$ and $\Xi_b^- \rightarrow \Xi_c^0 D_s^-$ decays are observed for the first time using proton-proton collision data collected by the LHCb experiment at a centre-of-mass energy of $\sqrt{s}=13\mathrm{TeV}$, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of $5.1\mathrm{fb}^{-1}$. The relative branching fractions times the beauty-baryon production cross-sections are measured to be \begin{align*} \mathcal{R}\left(\frac{\Xi_b^0}{\Lambda_b^0}\right) \equiv \frac{\sigma\left(\Xi_b^0\right)}{\sigma\left(\Lambda_b^0\right)} \times \frac{\mathcal{B}\left(\Xi_b^0 \rightarrow \Xi_c^+ D_s^-\right)}{\mathcal{B}\left(\Lambda_b^0 \rightarrow \Lambda_c^0 D_s^-\right)} =(15.8\pm1.1\pm0.6\pm7.7)\%, \mathcal{R}\left(\frac{\Xi_b^-}{\Lambda_b^0}\right) \equiv \frac{\sigma\left(\Xi_b^-\right)}{\sigma\left(\Lambda_b^0\right)} \times \frac{\mathcal{B}\left(\Xi_b^- \rightarrow \Xi_c^0 D_s^-\right)}{\mathcal{B}\left(\Lambda_b^0 \rightarrow \Lambda_c^0 D_s^-\right)} =(16.9\pm1.3\pm0.9\pm4.3)\%, \end{align*} where the first uncertainties are statistical, the second systematic, and the third due to the uncertainties on the branching fractions of relevant charm-baryon decays. The masses of $\Xi_b^0$ and $\Xi_b^-$ baryons are measured to be $m_{\Xi_b^0}=5791.12\pm0.60\pm0.45\pm0.24\mathrm{MeV}/c^2$ and $m_{\Xi_b^-}=5797.02\pm0.63\pm0.49\pm0.29\mathrm{MeV}/c^2$, where the uncertainties are statistical, systematic, and those due to charm-hadron masses, respectively

A measurement of ΔΓs\Delta \Gamma_{s}

Using a dataset corresponding to 9 fb$^{−1}$ of integrated luminosity collected with the LHCb detector between 2011 and 2018 in proton-proton collisions, the decay-time distributions of the decay modes ${B}_s^0\to J/{\psi \eta}^{\prime }$ and ${B}_s^0\to J/\psi {\pi}^{+}{\pi}^{-}$ are studied. The decay-width difference between the light and heavy mass eigenstates of the ${B}_s^0$ meson is measured to be ∆Γ$_{s}$ = 0.087 ± 0.012 ± 0.009 ps$^{−1}$, where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second systematic.[graphic not available: see fulltext]Using a dataset corresponding to $9~\mathrm{fb}^{-1}$ of integrated luminosity collected with the LHCb detector between 2011 and 2018 in proton-proton collisions, the decay-time distributions of the decay modes $B_s^0 \rightarrow J/\psi \eta'$ and $B_s^0 \rightarrow J/\psi \pi^{+} \pi^{-}$ are studied. The decay-width difference between the light and heavy mass eigenstates of the $B_s^0$ meson is measured to be $\Delta \Gamma_s = 0.087 \pm 0.012 \pm 0.009 \, \mathrm{ps}^{-1}$, where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second systematic

Measurement of the Branching Fraction of B0→J/ψπ0B^{0} \rightarrow J/\psi \pi^{0} Decays

International audienceThe ratio of branching fractions between $B^{0} \rightarrow J/\psi \pi^{0}$ and $B^{+} \rightarrow J/\psi K^{*+}$ decays is measured with proton-proton collision data collected by the LHCb experiment, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 9 fb$^{-1}$. The measured value is $\frac{\mathcal{B}_{B^{0} \rightarrow J/\psi \pi^{0}}}{\mathcal{B}_{B^{+} \rightarrow J/\psi K^{*+}}} = (1.153 \pm 0.053 \pm 0.048 ) \times 10^{-2}$, where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second is systematic. The branching fraction for $B^{0} \rightarrow J/\psi \pi^{0}$ decays is determined using the branching fraction of the normalisation channel, resulting in $\mathcal{B}_{B^{0} \rightarrow J/\psi \pi^{0}} = (1.670 \pm 0.077 \pm 0.069 \pm 0.095) \times 10^{-5}$, where the last uncertainty corresponds to that of the external input. This result is consistent with the current world average value and competitive with the most precise single measurement to date

Observation of the Bc+→J/ψπ+π0B_c^+ \to J/\psi \pi^+ \pi^0 decay

The first observation of the $B_c^+ \to J/\psi \pi^+ \pi^0$ decay is reported with high significance using proton-proton collision data, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 9 fb$^{-1}$, collected with the LHCb detector at centre-of-mass energies of 7, 8, and 13 TeV. The ratio of its branching fraction relative to the $B_c^+ \to J/\psi \pi^+$ channel is measured to be $$\frac{ {\cal{B}}_{( B_c^+ \to J/\psi \pi^+\pi^0 ) }} { {\cal{B}}_{( B_c^+ \to J/\psi \pi^+ ) }} = 2.80 \pm 0.15 \pm 0.11 \pm 0.16 \,,$$ where the first uncertainty is statistical, the second systematic and the third related to imprecise knowledge of the branching fractions for $B^+ \to J/\psi K^{*+}$ and $B^+ \to J/\psi K^+$ decays, which are used to determine the $\pi^0$ detection efficiency. The $\pi^+\pi^0$ mass spectrum is found to be consistent with the dominance of an intermediate $\rho^+$ contribution in accordance with a model based on QCD factorisation.The first observation of the ${B}_c^{+}\to J/\psi {\pi}^{+}{\pi}^0$ decay is reported with high significance using proton-proton collision data, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 9 fb$^{−1}$, collected with the LHCb detector at centre-of-mass energies of 7, 8, and 13 TeV. The ratio of its branching fraction relative to the ${B}_c^{+}\to J/\psi {\pi}^{+}$ channel is measured to be$\frac{{\mathcal{B}}_{B_c^{+}\to J/\psi {\pi}^{+}{\pi}^0}}{{\mathcal{B}}_{B_c^{+}\to J/\psi {\pi}^{+}}}=2.80\pm 0.15\pm 0.11\pm 0.16,$where the first uncertainty is statistical, the second systematic and the third related to imprecise knowledge of the branching fractions for B$^{+}$ → J/ψK$^{*+}$ and ${B}_c^{+}\to J/\psi {\pi}^{+}$ decays, which are used to determine the π$^{0}$ detection efficiency. The π$^{+}$π$^{0}$ mass spectrum is found to be consistent with the dominance of an intermediate ρ$^{+}$ contribution in accordance with a model based on QCD factorisation.[graphic not available: see fulltext]The first observation of the $B_c^+ \to J/\psi \pi^+ \pi^0$ decay is reported with high significance using proton-proton collision data, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 9fb$^{-1}$, collected with the LHCb detector at centre-of-mass energies of 7, 8, and 13 TeV. The ratio of its branching fraction relative to the $B_c^+ \to J/\psi \pi^+$ channel is measured to be $$\frac{ {\cal{B}}( B_c^+ \to J/\psi \pi^+\pi^0 ) } { {\cal{B}}( B_c^+ \to J/\psi \pi^+ ) } = 2.80 \pm 0.15 \pm 0.11 \pm 0.16 \,,$$ where the first uncertainty is statistical, the second systematic and the third related to imprecise knowledge of the branching fractions for $B^+ \to J/\psi K^{*+}$ and $B^+ \to J/\psi K^+$ decays, which are used to determine the $\pi^0$ detection efficiency. The $\pi^+\pi^0$ mass spectrum is found to be consistent with the dominance of an intermediate $\rho^+$ contribution in accordance with a model based on QCD factorisation