Fluid-driven seismicity in a stable tectonic context: The Remiremont fault zone, Vosges, France

Some relocated seismic events, which have small magnitudes (ML < 4.8), are found to align along a 40 km-long fault zone flanking the southern Vosges Massif to the west. It joins to the south with the epicentral area of the historical 1682 earthquake (Io = VIII MSK). The Remiremont cluster was preceded by a period of seismic coalescence and triggered outward of bilateral seismic migration. The 1984 seismic crisis developed along a well defined 3 km-long vertical plane. In both cases, migration rates of the order of 5–10 km/yr over 30 km-long distances are determined. This pattern requires some mechanism of stress interaction which must act over distances of the order of 1 to 20 km within years. Given the low tectonic activity and the magnitudes of the events the stress transfer cannot result from co-seismic elastic loading or from transient strain at depth. We suggest that the seismic activity reflect rupture of asperities driven by fluid-flow in a zone of relatively high permeability

Investigating tropospheric effects and seasonal position variations in GPS and DORIS time-series from the Nepal Himalaya

Geodetic time-series from continuous GPS (cGPS) and 1 DORIS stations across the Himalaya of central Nepal show strong seasonal fluctuations observed on the horizontal and vertical components. Because the fluctuations determined at the different stations have similar phase but different amplitudes, these observations would imply that the secular shortening across the range is modulated by a seasonal strain. Given the geographic and climatic setting, there is however a possibility that the GPS positions be biased by tropospheric effects. We process these data using two different software packages and two different analysis strategies. Our analysis shows evidence for 1-strong seasonal fluctuation of zenithal delays consistent with in situ meteorological data and two strong horizontal tropospheric gradients in particular in the EW direction, that is, parallel to the mountain front at Gumba, also detected in DORIS results. We show that the tropospheric effects cannot however be the source of the observed seasonality of horizontal strain. This study supports the view that the seasonal strain in the Himalaya is real and probably driven by seasonal surface load variations. Our study adds support to the view that seasonal variations of seismicity in the Himalaya reflects seasonal variations of geodetic strain

Convergence rate across the Nepal Himalaya and interseismic coupling on the Main Himalayan Thrust: Implications for seismic hazard

We document geodetic strain across the Nepal Himalaya using GPS times series from 30 stations in Nepal and southern Tibet, in addition to previously published campaign GPS points and leveling data and determine the pattern of interseismic coupling on the Main Himalayan Thrust fault (MHT). The noise on the daily GPS positions is modeled as a combination of white and colored noise, in order to infer secular velocities at the stations with consistent uncertainties. We then locate the pole of rotation of the Indian plate in the ITRF 2005 reference frame at longitude = − 1.34° ± 3.31°, latitude = 51.4° ± 0.3° with an angular velocity of Ω = 0.5029 ± 0.0072°/Myr. The pattern of coupling on the MHT is computed on a fault dipping 10° to the north and whose strike roughly follows the arcuate shape of the Himalaya. The model indicates that the MHT is locked from the surface to a distance of approximately 100 km down dip, corresponding to a depth of 15 to 20 km. In map view, the transition zone between the locked portion of the MHT and the portion which is creeping at the long term slip rate seems to be at the most a few tens of kilometers wide and coincides with the belt of midcrustal microseismicity underneath the Himalaya. According to a previous study based on thermokinematic modeling of thermochronological and thermobarometric data, this transition seems to happen in a zone where the temperature reaches 350°C. The convergence between India and South Tibet proceeds at a rate of 17.8 ± 0.5 mm/yr in central and eastern Nepal and 20.5 ± 1 mm/yr in western Nepal. The moment deficit due to locking of the MHT in the interseismic period accrues at a rate of 6.6 ± 0.4 × 10^(19) Nm/yr on the MHT underneath Nepal. For comparison, the moment released by the seismicity over the past 500 years, including 14 M_W ≥ 7 earthquakes with moment magnitudes up to 8.5, amounts to only 0.9 × 10^(19) Nm/yr, indicating a large deficit of seismic slip over that period or very infrequent large slow slip events. No large slow slip event has been observed however over the 20 years covered by geodetic measurements in the Nepal Himalaya. We discuss the magnitude and return period of M > 8 earthquakes required to balance the long term slip budget on the MHT

Mesures de déformation par GPS : une méthode d’investigation des mouvements tectoniques à grande échelle

Le système GPS de positionnement par satellites s’est imposé en une décennie pour suivre avec une précision millimétrique les mouvements et les déformations des plaques tectoniques à grande échelle. Le CEA participe à l’acquisition de nouvelles données dans le cadre d’une collaboration internationale

Le cycle sismique en Himalaya

We discuss the seismic cycle in the Himalayas and its relation to mountain building on the basis of geodetic, seismological and geological data collected in the Himalaya of Nepal. On average over several seismic cycles, localized slip on a major thrust fault, the Main Himalayan Thrust fault, MHT, accommodates the ∼21 mm·yr^(−1) convergence rate between southern Tibet and India. The geodetic data show that the MHT is presently locked from the sub-Himalayas to beneath the front of the high range where it roots into a sub-horizontal ductile shear zone under southern Tibet. Aseismic slip during the interseismic period induces stress accumulation at the southern edge of this shear zone triggering intense microseismic activity and elastic straining of the upper crust at the front of the high range. This deformation is released, on the long term, by major earthquakes on the MHT. Such an event is the M_w 8.4-1934-earthquake that ruptured a 250–300-km long segment. The major seismic events along the Himalayas since the 19th century have released more than 70% of the crustal strain accumulated over that period, suggesting that, if any, aseismic slip on the MHT cannot account for more than 30% of the total slip

Seasonal variations of seismicity and geodetic strain in the Himalaya induced by surface hydrology

One way to probe earthquake nucleation processes and the relation between stress buildup and seismicity is to analyze the sensitivity of seismicity to stress perturbations. Here, we report evidence for seasonal strain and stress (~ 2–4 kPa) variations in the Nepal Himalaya, induced by water storage variations which correlate with seasonal variations of seismicity. The seismicity rate is twice as high in the winter as in the summer, and correlates with stress rate variations. We infer ~ 10–20 kPa/yr interseismic stress buildup within the seismicity cluster along the high Himalaya front. Given that Earth tides exert little influence on Himalayan seismicity, the correlated seasonal variation of stress and seismicity indicates that the duration of earthquake nucleation in the Himalaya is of the order of days to month, placing constraints on faults friction laws. The unusual sensitivity of seismicity to small stress changes in the Himalaya might be due to high pore pressure at seismogenic depth

Plate Motion of India and Interseismic Strain in the Nepal Himalaya from GPS and DORIS Measurements

We analyse geodetically estimated deformation across the Nepal Himalaya in order to determine the geodetic rate of shortening between Southern Tibet and India, previously proposed to range from 12 to 21 mm yr^(−1). The dataset includes spirit-levelling data along a road going from the Indian to the Tibetan border across Central Nepal, data from the DORIS station on Everest, which has been analysed since 1993, GPS campaign measurements from surveys carried on between 1995 and 2001, as well as data from continuous GPS stations along a transect at the logitude of Kathmandu operated continuously since 1997. The GPS data were processed in International Terrestrial Reference Frame 2000 (ITRF2000), together with the data from 20 International GNSS Service (IGS) stations and then combined using quasi observation combination analysis (QOCA). Finally, spatially complementary velocities at stations in Southern Tibet, initially determined in ITRF97, were expressed in ITRF2000. After analysing previous studies by different authors, we determined the pole of rotation of the Indian tectonic plate to be located in ITRF2000 at 51.409±1.560°N and−10.915± 5.556°E, with an angular velocity of 0.483±0.015°. Myr^(−1). Internal deformation of India is found to be small, corresponding to less than about 2 mm yr^(−1) of baseline change between Southern India and the Himalayan piedmont. Based on an elastic dislocation model of interseismic strain and taking into account the uncertainty on India plate motion, the mean convergence rate across Central and Eastern Nepal is estimated to 19 ± 2.5 mm yr^(−1), (at the 67% confidence level). The main himalayan thrust (MHT) fault was found to be locked from the surface to a depth of about 20km over a width of about 115 km. In these regions, the model parameters are well constrained, thanks to the long and continuous time-series from the permanent GPS as well as DORIS data. Further west, a convergence rate of 13.4 ± 5 mm yr^(−1), as well as a fault zone, locked over 150 km, are proposed. The slight discrepancy between the geologically estimated deformation rate of 21 ± 1.5 mm yr^(−1) and the 19 ± 2.5 mm yr^(−1) geodetic rate in Central and Eastern Nepal, as well as the lower geodetic rate in Western Nepal compared to Eastern Nepal, places bounds on possible temporal variations of the pattern and rate of strain in the period between large earthquakes in this region

Does Long-Term GPS in the Western Alps Finally Confirm Earthquake Mechanisms?

International audienceThe availability of GPS survey data spanning 22 years, along with several independent velocity solutions including up to 16 years of permanent GPS data, presents a unique opportunity to search for persistent (and thus reliable) deformation patterns in the Western Alps, which in turn allow a reinterpretation of the active tectonics of this region. While GPS velocities are still too uncertain to be interpreted on an individual basis, the analysis of range-perpendicular GPS velocity profiles clearly highlights zones of extension in the center of the belt (15.3 to 3.1 nanostrain/year from north to south), with shortening in the forelands. The contrasting geodetic deformation pattern is coherent with earthquake focal mechanisms and related strain/stress patterns over the entire Western Alps. The GPS results finally provide a reliable and robust quantification of the regional strain rates. The observed vertical motions of 2.0 to 0.5 mm/year of uplift from north to south in the core of the Western Alps is interpreted to result from buoyancy forces related to postglacial rebound, erosional unloading, and/or viscosity anomalies in the crustal and lithospheric root. Spatial decorrelation between vertical and horizontal (seismicity related) deformation calls for a combination of processes to explain the complex present-day dynamics of the Western Alps