Socioeconomic variation in the incidence of childhood coeliac disease in the UK.

BACKGROUND: Serological studies indicate that evidence of coeliac disease (CD) exists in about 1% of all children, but we lack estimates of current diagnostic patterns among children and how they vary by socioeconomic group. METHODS: We identified all children aged 0-18 years between 1993 and 2012 who were registered with general practices across the UK that contribute to a large population-based general practice database. The incidence of CD was evaluated in each quintile of the Townsend index of deprivation and stratified by age, sex, country and calendar year. RESULTS: Among 2,063,421 children, we identified 1247 CD diagnoses, corresponding to an overall CD incidence of 11.9 per 100,000 person-years, which was similar across the UK countries and higher in girls than in boys. We found a gradient of CD diagnosis across socioeconomic groups, with the rate of diagnosis being 80% higher in children from the least-deprived areas than in those from the most-deprived areas (incident rate ratio 1.80, 95% CI 1.45 to 2.22). This pattern held for both boys and girls and across all ages. Across all four countries of the UK, we found similar associations between CD and socioeconomic status. While CD incidence up to age 2 remained stable over the study period, diagnoses at older ages have almost tripled over the past 20 years. CONCLUSIONS: Children living in less socioeconomically deprived areas in the UK are more likely to be diagnosed with CD. Increased implementation of diagnostic guidelines could result in better case identification in more-deprived areas

Efficacy of Liver Transplantation in Patients with Primary Biliary Cirrhosis

No controlled trials have been performed to assess the efficacy of liver transplantation. Because of the marked improvement in survival after liver transplantation since 1981, random assignment of patients to a control group not undergoing transplantation is considered clinically inappropriate. To assess the efficacy of liver transplantation in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis, we compared survival in 161 patients with this diagnosis who had undergone a liver transplantation with survival in patients with the same diagnosis who had been treated conservatively. The comparison was performed with use of a recently developed statistical technique, the Mayo model. All patients had undergone liver transplantation between March 1980 and June 1987 and were followed for a median of 25 months. Three months after liver transplantation, the Kaplan–Meier survival probabilities in the recipients were substantially higher than the Mayo-model “simulated-control” survival probabilities (P<0.001). At two years, the Kaplan–Meier survival probability was 0.74, whereas the mean Mayo-model survival probability was 0.31. The patients who were at low risk according to the Mayo model had the best probability of survival after liver transplantation; however, patients at all risk levels who had undergone liver transplantation had higher probabilities of survival than those who had not. We conclude that liver transplantation is an efficacious treatment in patients with advanced primary biliary cirrhosis. (N Engl J Med 1989; 320:1709–13.), LIVER transplantation has been accepted clinically as a lifesaving treatment in various end-stage liver diseases, including primary biliary cirrhosis.1,2 However, no controlled trials have been performed to evaluate the efficacy of this procedure. Indeed, because there has been a marked improvement since 1981 in survival after transplantation, random assignment of patients with advanced liver disease to a nontransplantation control group is considered to be clinically inappropriate. At the Mayo Clinic, a Cox regression model for predicting the probability of survival in patients with conservatively treated primary biliary cirrhosis has been developed.3 To provide control data for assessing the efficacy of…. © 1989, Massachusetts Medical Society. All rights reserved

Through the looking glass: understanding non-inferiority

Non-inferiority trials test whether a new product is not unacceptably worse than a product already in use. This paper introduces concepts related to non-inferiority, and discusses the regulatory views of both the European Medicines Agency and the United States Food and Drug Administration

Efficacy and safety of enzyme replacement therapy with BMN 110 (elosulfase alfa) for Morquio A syndrome (mucopolysaccharidosis IVA): a phase 3 randomised placebo-controlled study.

ObjectiveTo assess the efficacy and safety of enzyme replacement therapy (ERT) with BMN 110 (elosulfase alfa) in patients with Morquio A syndrome (mucopolysaccharidosis IVA).MethodsPatients with Morquio A aged ≥5&nbsp;years (N = 176) were randomised (1:1:1) to receive elosulfase alfa 2.0&nbsp;mg/kg/every other week (qow), elosulfase alfa 2.0&nbsp;mg/kg/week (weekly) or placebo for 24&nbsp;weeks in this phase 3, double-blind, randomised study. The primary efficacy measure was 6-min walk test (6MWT) distance. Secondary efficacy measures were 3-min stair climb test (3MSCT) followed by change in urine keratan sulfate (KS). Various exploratory measures included respiratory function tests. Patient safety was also evaluated.ResultsAt week 24, the estimated mean effect on the 6MWT versus placebo was 22.5 m (95&nbsp;% CI 4.0, 40.9; P = 0.017) for weekly and 0.5 m (95&nbsp;% CI -17.8, 18.9; P = 0.954) for qow. The estimated mean effect on 3MSCT was 1.1 stairs/min (95&nbsp;% CI -2.1, 4.4; P = 0.494) for weekly and -0.5 stairs/min (95&nbsp;% CI -3.7, 2.8; P = 0.778) for qow. Normalised urine KS was reduced at 24&nbsp;weeks in both regimens. In the weekly dose group, 22.4&nbsp;% of patients had adverse events leading to an infusion interruption/discontinuation requiring medical intervention (only 1.3&nbsp;% of all infusions in this group) over 6&nbsp;months. No adverse events led to permanent treatment discontinuation.ConclusionsElosulfase alfa improved endurance as measured by the 6MWT in the weekly but not qow dose group, did not improve endurance on the 3MSCT, reduced urine KS, and had an acceptable safety profile

Health services research in the public healthcare system in Hong Kong: An analysis of over 1 million antihypertensive prescriptions between 2004-2007 as an example of the potential and pitfalls of using routinely collected electronic patient data

&lt;b&gt;Objectives&lt;/b&gt; Increasing use is being made of routinely collected electronic patient data in health services research. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the potential usefulness of a comprehensive database used routinely in the public healthcare system in Hong Kong, using antihypertensive drug prescriptions in primary care as an example.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Methods&lt;/b&gt; Data on antihypertensive drug prescriptions were retrieved from the electronic Clinical Management System (e-CMS) of all primary care clinics run by the Health Authority (HA) in the New Territory East (NTE) cluster of Hong Kong between January 2004 and June 2007. Information was also retrieved on patients’ demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, visit type (new or follow-up), and relevant diseases (International Classification of Primary Care, ICPC codes). &lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Results&lt;/b&gt; 1,096,282 visit episodes were accessed, representing 93,450 patients. Patients’ demographic and socio-economic details were recorded in all cases. Prescription details for anti-hypertensive drugs were missing in only 18 patients (0.02%). However, ICPC-code was missing for 36,409 patients (39%). Significant independent predictors of whether disease codes were applied included patient age &gt; 70 years (OR 2.18), female gender (OR 1.20), district of residence (range of ORs in more rural districts; 0.32-0.41), type of clinic (OR in Family Medicine Specialist Clinics; 1.45) and type of visit (OR follow-up visit; 2.39). &lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; In the 57,041 patients with an ICPC-code, uncomplicated hypertension (ICPC K86) was recorded in 45,859 patients (82.1%). The characteristics of these patients were very similar to those of the non-coded group, suggesting that most non-coded patients on antihypertensive drugs are likely to have uncomplicated hypertension. &lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Conclusion&lt;/b&gt; The e-CMS database of the HA in Hong Kong varies in quality in terms of recorded information. Potential future health services research using demographic and prescription information is highly feasible but for disease-specific research dependant on ICPC codes some caution is warranted. In the case of uncomplicated hypertension, future research on pharmaco-epidemiology (such as prescription patterns) and clinical issues (such as side-effects of medications on metabolic parameters) seems feasible given the large size of the data set and the comparability of coded and non-coded patients

Use of surrogate endpoints in healthcare policy : proposal for consistent adoption of a validation framework

We propose a three step framework for the evaluation of surrogate endpoints for health policy decisions on health technologies

Photoswitchable diacylglycerols enable optical control of protein kinase C.

Increased levels of the second messenger lipid diacylglycerol (DAG) induce downstream signaling events including the translocation of C1-domain-containing proteins toward the plasma membrane. Here, we introduce three light-sensitive DAGs, termed PhoDAGs, which feature a photoswitchable acyl chain. The PhoDAGs are inactive in the dark and promote the translocation of proteins that feature C1 domains toward the plasma membrane upon a flash of UV-A light. This effect is quickly reversed after the termination of photostimulation or by irradiation with blue light, permitting the generation of oscillation patterns. Both protein kinase C and Munc13 can thus be put under optical control. PhoDAGs control vesicle release in excitable cells, such as mouse pancreatic islets and hippocampal neurons, and modulate synaptic transmission in Caenorhabditis elegans. As such, the PhoDAGs afford an unprecedented degree of spatiotemporal control and are broadly applicable tools to study DAG signaling

A perfect correlate does not a surrogate make

BACKGROUND: There is common belief among some medical researchers that if a potential surrogate endpoint is highly correlated with a true endpoint, then a positive (or negative) difference in potential surrogate endpoints between randomization groups would imply a positive (or negative) difference in unobserved true endpoints between randomization groups. We investigate this belief when the potential surrogate and unobserved true endpoints are perfectly correlated within each randomization group. METHODS: We use a graphical approach. The vertical axis is the unobserved true endpoint and the horizontal axis is the potential surrogate endpoint. Perfect correlation within each randomization group implies that, for each randomization group, potential surrogate and true endpoints are related by a straight line. In this scenario the investigator does not know the slopes or intercepts. We consider a plausible example where the slope of the line is higher for the experimental group than for the control group. RESULTS: In our example with unknown lines, a decrease in mean potential surrogate endpoints from control to experimental groups corresponds to an increase in mean true endpoint from control to experimental groups. Thus the potential surrogate endpoints give the wrong inference. Similar results hold for binary potential surrogate and true outcomes (although the notion of correlation does not apply). The potential surrogate endpointwould give the correct inference if either (i) the unknown lines for the two group coincided, which means that the distribution of true endpoint conditional on potential surrogate endpoint does not depend on treatment group, which is called the Prentice Criterion or (ii) if one could accurately predict the lines based on data from prior studies. CONCLUSION: Perfect correlation between potential surrogate and unobserved true outcomes within randomized groups does not guarantee correct inference based on a potential surrogate endpoint. Even in early phase trials, investigators should not base conclusions on potential surrogate endpoints in which the only validation is high correlation with the true endpoint within a group

Functional cognitive disorder: dementia's blind spot

An increasing proportion of cognitive difficulties are recognized to have a functional cause, the chief clinical indicator of which is internal inconsistency. When these symptoms are impairing or distressing, and not better explained by other disorders, this can be conceptualized as a cognitive variant of functional neurological disorder, termed functional cognitive disorder (FCD). FCD is likely very common in clinical practice but may be under-diagnosed. Clinicians in many settings make liberal use of the descriptive term mild cognitive impairment (MCI) for those with cognitive difficulties not impairing enough to qualify as dementia. However, MCI is an aetiology-neutral description, which therefore includes patients with a wide range of underlying causes. Consequently, a proportion of MCI cases are due to non-neurodegenerative processes, including FCD. Indeed, significant numbers of patients diagnosed with MCI do not 'convert' to dementia. The lack of diagnostic specificity for MCI 'non-progressors' is a weakness inherent in framing MCI primarily within a deterministic neurodegenerative pathway. It is recognized that depression, anxiety and behavioural changes can represent a prodrome to neurodegeneration; empirical data are required to explore whether the same might hold for subsets of individuals with FCD. Clinicians and researchers can improve study efficacy and patient outcomes by viewing MCI as a descriptive term with a wide differential diagnosis, including potentially reversible components such as FCD. We present a preliminary definition of functional neurological disorder-cognitive subtype, explain its position in relation to other cognitive diagnoses and emerging biomarkers, highlight clinical features that can lead to positive diagnosis (as opposed to a diagnosis of exclusion), and red flags that should prompt consideration of alternative diagnoses. In the research setting, positive identifiers of FCD will enhance our recognition of individuals who are not in a neurodegenerative prodrome, while greater use of this diagnosis in clinical practice will facilitate personalised interventions