A latent capture history model for digital aerial surveys

Funding: This work was part-funded by the Royal Society of New Zealand Marsden grant UOA-1418, Leverhulme grant RF-2018-213\9 and EPSRC IAA grant ‘High Definition digital aerial survey software’.We anticipate that unmanned aerial vehicles will become popular wildlife survey platforms. Because detecting animals from the air is imperfect, we develop a mark‐recapture line transect method using two digital cameras, possibly mounted on one aircraft, which cover the same area with a short time delay between them. Animal movement between the passage of the cameras introduces uncertainty in individual identity, so individual capture histories are unobservable and are treated as latent variables. We obtain the likelihood for mark‐recapture line transects without capture histories by automatically enumerating all possibilities within segments of the transect that contain ambiguous identities, instead of attempting to decide identities in a prior step. We call this method “Latent Capture‐history Enumeration” (LCE). We include an availability model for species that are periodically unavailable for detection, such as cetaceans that are undetectable while diving. External data are needed to estimate the availability cycle length, but not the mean availability rate, if the full availability model is employed. We compare the LCE method with the recently developed cluster capture‐recapture method (CCR), which uses a Palm likelihood approximation, providing the first comparison of CCR with maximum likelihood. The LCE estimator has slightly lower variance, more so as sample size increases, and close to nominal coverage probabilities. Both methods are approximately unbiased. We illustrate with semisynthetic data from a harbor porpoise survey.PostprintPeer reviewe

Demographic trends and reproductive patterns in the northern hairy-nosed wombat (Lasiorhinus krefftii) at Epping Forest National Park (Scientific), central Queensland

The critically endangered northern hairy-nosed wombat (Lasiorhinus krefftii) currently exists at only two locations in Queensland. Management, research and monitoring of the species at the main Epping Forest National Park (Scientific) population has occurred over the last four decades using a variety of tools, with the most complete dataset being provided by burrow activity monitoring over that period. Following a series of trap-based surveys in the 1980s and 1990s, wombat monitoring has employed DNA profiling of hairs collected remotely on sticky tape set at burrow entrances (since 2000), and passive infrared (PIR) cameras (since 2011). These techniques have produced a wealth of new information on the species. Using this new information, we aim to: (1) summarise the available demographic data and present new estimates using novel techniques for L. krefftii at Epping Forest NP; and (2) characterise reproductive patterns and their relationship with environmental factors for L. krefftii at Epping Forest NP. We find an ongoing increase in the population size at Epping Forest National Park, supported by healthy levels of reproduction despite periods of poor environmental conditions, notwithstanding the finding that cumulative monthly rainfall six months prior to sampling influenced birth rates. This trend suggests that the population will likely reach carrying capacity in the near future. It is timely to harvest the population to provide founders to a new site to establish an additional population, which will also reduce the risk of extinction and help secure the future of the species. © 2021 Australian Mammal Society

A flexible framework for spatial capture-recapture with unknown identities

Funding: We acknowledge the funding support of the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) and the University of St Andrews. The fisher study was funded by InnoTech Alberta grants, Government of Alberta (Environment and Parks), The Beaver Hills Initiative, Alberta Conservation Association, NSERC, Royal Canadian Geographic Society, TD Friends of the Environment Foundation, and the Fur Institute of Canada scholarships.Camera traps or acoustic recorders are often used to sample wildlife populations. When animals can be individually identified, these data can be used with spatial capture-recapture (SCR) methods to assess populations. However, obtaining animal identities is often labor-intensive and not always possible for all detected animals. To address this problem, we formulate SCR, including acoustic SCR, as a marked Poisson process, comprising a single counting process for the detections of all animals and a mark distribution for what is observed (eg, animal identity, detector location). The counting process applies equally when it is animals appearing in front of camera traps and when vocalizations are captured by microphones, although the definition of a mark changes. When animals cannot be uniquely identified, the observed marks arise from a mixture of mark distributions defined by the animal activity centers and additional characteristics. Our method generalizes existing latent identity SCR models and provides an integrated framework that includes acoustic SCR. We apply our method to estimate density from a camera trap study of fisher (Pekania pennanti) and an acoustic survey of Cape Peninsula moss frog (Arthroleptella lightfooti). We also test it through simulation. We find latent identity SCR with additional marks such as sex or time of arrival to be a reliable method for estimating animal density.Peer reviewe

Where did the rats of big South Cape Island come from?

The ship rat invasion of Big South Cape Island/Taukihepa in the 1960s was an ecological catastrophe that marked a turning point for the management of rodents on offshore islands of New Zealand. Despite the importance of this event in the conservation history of New Zealand, and subsequent major advances in rodent eradication and biosecurity, the source and pathway of the rat invasion of Big South Cape Island has never been identified. Using modern molecular methods on contemporary and historical tissue samples, we identify the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) haplotype of ship rats (Rattus rattus) on Big South Cape Island and compare it to that of ship rats in the neighbouring regions of Stewart Island/Rakiura and southern New Zealand, all hypothesised as possible source sites for the invasion. We identify two haplotype clusters, each comprising three closely related haplotypes; one cluster unique to Stewart Island, and the other found in southern New Zealand and elsewhere. By a process of elimination we rule that the ship rat invasion of Big South Cape Island was neither by swimming nor boat transport from Stewart Island, and is unlikely to have come from the south coast ports of New Zealand. However, because the ship rat haplotype found on Big South Cape Island is cosmopolitan to New Zealand’s South Island and elsewhere, we can only confirm that the invasion likely originated from some distance, but are not able to identify the invasion source more precisely. An unexpected consequence of our study is the discovery of five new mtDNA haplotypes for R. rattus that have not been previously reported

Structural optimization of MacPherson control arm under fatigue loading

U ovom istraživanju izvršena je optimizacija topologije i oblika MacPherson upravljačke poluge u svrhu postizanja manje težina. Postojeće automobilsko tržište traži dijelove niske cijene i male težine, a za potrebe energetski učinkovitog, a jeftinog vozila. To zahtijeva učinkovitiju uporabu materijala za automobilske dijelove koji mogu dovesti do smanjene mase vozila. Budući da su automobilski dijelovi izloženi dinamičkim opterećenjima koja uzrokuju oštećenja zbog zamora, uzimanje u obzir kriterija zamora čini se bitnim u dizajniranju automobilskih dijelova. Kako bi se stvorili što teži uvjeti opterećenja upravljačke poluge, najprije su spektralnom gustoćom snage generirane neravne ceste. Zatim su, dinamičkom analizom karoserije kompletnog modela vozila, dobiveni najkritičniji uvjeti opterećenja. Nakon toga, izvršena je optimizacija topologije pomoću kriterija vijeka trajanja do zamora primjenom HyperMesh softvera, što je rezultiralo smanjenjem mase od 50 %. U sljedećem koraku kreiran je CAD model primjenom CATIA softvera i provedena optimizacija oblika kako bi se dobile točne dimenzije s manje mase.In this research, the topology and shape optimization of a MacPherson control arm has been accomplished to achieve lighter weight. Present automotive market demands low cost and light weight component to meet the need of fuel efficient and cost effective vehicle. This in turn gives the rise to more effective use of materials for automotive parts which can reduce the mass of vehicle. Since automotive components are under dynamic loads which cause fatigue damage, considering fatigue criteria seems to be essential in designing automotive components. At first, in order to create severe loading condition for control arm some rough roads are generated through power spectral density. Then, the most critical loading conditions are obtained through multi body dynamics analysis of a full vehicle model. Then, the topology optimization is performed based on fatigue life criterion using HyperMesh software, which resulted in 50 % mass reduction. In the next step a CAD model is created using CATIA software and shape optimization is performed to achieve accurate dimensions with less mass

Long-term monitoring of wildlife populations for protected area management in Southeast Asia

Long-term monitoring of biodiversity in protected areas (PAs) is critical to assess threats, link conservation action to species outcomes, and facilitate improved management. Yet, rigorous longitudinal monitoring within PAs is rare. In Southeast Asia (SEA), there is a paucity of long-term wildlife monitoring within PAs, and many threatened species lack population estimates from anywhere in their range, making global assessments difficult. Here, we present new abundance estimates and population trends for 11 species between 2010 and 2020, and spatial distributions for 7 species, based on long-term line transect distance sampling surveys in Keo Seima Wildlife Sanctuary in Cambodia. These represent the first robust population estimates for four threatened species from anywhere in their range and are among the first long-term wildlife population trend analyses from the entire SEA region. Our study revealed that arboreal primates and green peafowl (Pavo muticus) generally had either stable or increasing population trends, whereas ungulates and semiarboreal primates generally had declining trends. These results suggest that ground-based threats, such as snares and domestic dogs, are having serious negative effects on terrestrial species. These findings have important conservation implications for PAs across SEA that face similar threats yet lack reliable monitoring data

Statistical ecology comes of age

The desire to predict the consequences of global environmental change has been the driver towards more realistic models embracing the variability and uncertainties inherent in ecology. Statistical ecology has gelled over the past decade as a discipline that moves away from describing patterns towards modelling the ecological processes that generate these patterns. Following the fourth International Statistical Ecology Conference (1-4 July 2014) in Montpellier, France, we analyse current trends in statistical ecology. Important advances in the analysis of individual movement, and in the modelling of population dynamics and species distributions, are made possible by the increasing use of hierarchical and hidden process models. Exciting research perspectives include the development of methods to interpret citizen science data and of efficient, flexible computational algorithms for model fitting. Statistical ecology has come of age: it now provides a general and mathematically rigorous framework linking ecological theory and empirical data.Peer reviewe

Genetic diversity and connectivity of southern right whales (Eubalaena australis) found in the Brazil and Chile-Peru wintering grounds and the South Georgia (Islas Georgias del Sur) feeding ground

As species recover from exploitation, continued assessments of connectivity and population structure are warranted to provide information for conservation and management. This is particularly true in species with high dispersal capacity, such as migratory whales, where patterns of connectivity could change rapidly. Here we build on a previous long-term, large-scale collaboration on southern right whales (Eubalaena australis) to combine new (nnew) and published (npub) mitochondrial (mtDNA) and microsatellite genetic data from all major wintering grounds and, uniquely, the South Georgia (Islas Georgias del Sur: SG) feeding grounds. Specifically, we include data from Argentina (npub mtDNA/microsatellite=208/46), Brazil (nnew mtDNA/microsatellite=50/50), South Africa (nnew mtDNA/microsatellite=66/77, npub mtDNA/microsatellite=350/47), Chile-Peru (nnew mtDNA/microsatellite=1/1), the Indo-Pacific (npub mtDNA/microsatellite=769/126), and SG (npub mtDNA/microsatellite=8/0, nnew mtDNA/microsatellite=3/11) to investigate the position of previously unstudied habitats in the migratory network: Brazil, SG and Chile-Peru. These new genetic data show connectivity between Brazil and Argentina, exemplified by weak genetic differentiation and the movement of one genetically identified individual between the South American grounds. The single sample from Chile-Peru had a mtDNA haplotype previously only observed in the Indo-Pacific and had a nuclear genotype that appeared admixed between the Indo-Pacific and South Atlantic, based on genetic clustering and assignment algorithms. The SG samples were clearly South Atlantic, and were more similar to the South American than the South African wintering grounds. This study highlights how international collaborations are critical to provide context for emerging or recovering regions, like the SG feeding ground, as well as those that remain critically endangered, such as Chile-Peru

Estimation of population size when capture probability depends on individual state

We develop a multi-state model to estimate the size of a closed population from capture–recapture studies. We consider the case where capture–recapture data are not of a simple binary form, but where the state of an individual is also recorded upon every capture as a discrete variable. The proposed multi-state model can be regarded as a generalisation of the commonly applied set of closed population models to a multi-state form. The model allows for heterogeneity within the capture probabilities associated with each state while also permitting individuals to move between the different discrete states. A closed-form expression for the likelihood is presented in terms of a set of sufficient statistics. The link between existing models for capture heterogeneity is established, and simulation is used to show that the estimate of population size can be biased when movement between states is not accounted for. The proposed unconditional approach is also compared to a conditional approach to assess estimation bias. The model derived in this paper is motivated by a real ecological data set on great crested newts, Triturus cristatus. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear online