An optimal mix of conventional power systems in the presence of renewable energy: A new design for the German electricity market

In this paper we develop a new market design for the German electricity market. Our new market design simultaneously ensures security of energy supply and ongoing expansion of renewable energy (RE). The methodological approach applied considers the special challenges resulting from the intermittent nature of RE ‒ we simulate developments in the German electricity market between 2015 and 2034 and differentiate across various power plant technologies according to their ability to flexibly react to changes in the residual load. In theory, a composition of power plants that is optimally adapted to residual load always leads to the most cost efficient supply of electricity. However, our empirical analysis demonstrates that this does not necessarily lead to an improved market environment, both in terms of power plant profitability as well as uninterrupted power supply

The disease management program for type 2 diabetes in Germany enhances process quality of diabetes care - a follow-up survey of patient's experiences

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In summer 2003 a disease management program (DMP) for type 2 diabetes was introduced on a nationwide basis in Germany. Patient participation and continuity of care within the DMP are important factors to achieve long-term improvements in clinical endpoints. Therefore it is of interest, if patients experience any positive or negative effects of the DMP on their treatment that would support or hamper further participation. The main objective of the study was to find out if the German Disease Management Program (DMP) for type 2 diabetes improves process and outcome quality of medical care for patients in the light of their subjective experiences over a period of one year.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Cohort study with a baseline interview and a follow-up after 10.4 ± 0.64 months. Data on process and outcome measures were collected by telephone interviews with 444 patients enrolled and 494 patients not enrolled in the German DMP for type 2 diabetes. Data were analyzed by multivariate logistic regression analyses.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>DMP enrolment was significantly associated with a higher process quality of care. At baseline enrolled patients more often reported that they had attended a diabetes education course (OR = 3.4), have ≥ 4 contacts/year with the attending physician (OR = 3.3), have at least one annual foot examination (OR = 3.1) and one referral to an ophthalmologist (OR = 3.4) and possess a diabetes passport (OR = 2.4). Except for the annual referral to an ophthalmologist these parameters were also statistically significant at follow-up. In contrast, no differences between enrolled and not enrolled patients were found concerning outcome quality indicators, e.g. self-rated health, Glycated hemoglobin (GHb) and blood pressure. However, 16-36% of the DMP participants reported improvements of body weight and/or GHb and/or blood pressure values due to enrolment - unchanged within one year of follow-up.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In the light of patient's experiences the DMP enhances the process quality of medical care for type 2 diabetes in Germany. The lack of significant differences in outcome quality between enrolled and not enrolled patients might be due to the short program duration. Our data suggest that the DMP for type 2 diabetes should not be withdrawn unless an evidently more promising approach is found.</p

Childhood lead exposure in France: benefit estimation and partial cost-benefit analysis of lead hazard control

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Lead exposure remains a public health concern due to its serious adverse effects, such as cognitive and behavioral impairment: children younger than six years of age being the most vulnerable population. In Europe, the lead-related economic impacts have not been examined in detail. We estimate the annual costs in France due to childhood exposure and, through a cost benefit analysis (CBA), aim to assess the expected social and economic benefits of exposure abatement.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Monetary benefits were assessed in terms of avoided national costs. We used results from a 2008 survey on blood-lead (B-Pb) concentrations in French children aged one to six years old. Given the absence of a threshold concentration being established, we performed a sensitivity analysis assuming different hypothetical threshold values for toxicity above 15 μg/L, 24 μg/L and 100 μg/L. Adverse health outcomes of lead exposure were translated into social burden and economic costs based on literature data from literature. Direct health benefits, social benefits and intangible avoided costs were included. Costs of pollutant exposure control were partially estimated in regard to homes lead-based paint decontamination, investments aiming at reducing industrial lead emissions and removal of all lead drinking water pipes.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The following overall annual benefits for the three hypothetical thresholds values in 2008 are: €22.72 billion, €10.72 billion and €0.44 billion, respectively. Costs from abatement ranged from €0.9 billion to 2.95 billion/year. Finally, from a partial CBA of lead control in soils and dust the estimates of total net benefits were € 3.78 billion, € 1.88 billion and €0.25 billion respectively for the three hypothesized B-Pb effect values.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Prevention of childhood lead exposure has a high social benefit, due to reduction of B-Pb concentrations to levels below 15 μg/L or 24 μg/L, respectively. Reducing only exposures above 100 μg/L B-Pb has little economic impact due to the small number of children who now exhibit such high exposure levels. Prudent public policies would help avoiding future medical interventions, limit the need for special education and increase future productivity, and hence lifetime income for children exposed to lead.</p

A mixed-methods study exploring the characteristics and needs of long-stay patients in high and medium secure settings in England: implications for service organisation

Background: Forensic psychiatric services provide care for those with mental disorders and offending behaviour. Concerns have been expressed that patients may stay for too long in too high levels of security. The economic burden of these services is high, and they are highly restrictive for patients. There is no agreed standard for ‘long stay’; we defined a length of stay exceeding 5 years in medium secure care, 10 years in high secure care or 15 years in a combination of both settings as long stay. Objectives: To (1) estimate the number of long-stay patients in secure settings; (2) describe patients’ characteristics, needs and care pathways and the reasons for their prolonged stay; (3) identify patients’ perceptions of their treatment and quality of life; and (4) explore stakeholders’ views on long stay. Design: A mixed-methods approach, including a cross-sectional survey (on 1 April 2013) of all patients in participating units to identify long-stay patients [work package (WP) 1], file reviews and consultant questionnaires for long-stay patients (WP2), interviews with patients (WP3) and focus groups with other stakeholders (WP4). Setting: All three high secure hospitals and 23 medium secure units (16 NHS and 9 independent providers) in England. Participants: Information was gathered on all patients in participating units (WP1), from which 401 long-stay patients were identified (WP2), 40 patients (WP3), 17 international and 31 UK experts were interviewed and three focus groups were held (WP4). Results: Approximately 23.5% of high secure patients and 18% of medium secure patients were long-stay patients. We estimated that there are currently about 730 forensic long-stay patients in England. The source of a patient’s admission and the current section of the Mental Health Act [Great Britain. Mental Health Act 1983 (as Amended by the Mental Health Act 2007). London: The Stationery Office; 2007] under which they were admitted predicted long-stay status. Long-stay patients had complex pathways, moving ‘around’ between settings rather than moving forward. They were most likely to be detained under a hospital order with restrictions (section 37/41) and to have disturbed backgrounds with previous psychiatric admissions, self-harm and significant offending histories. The most common diagnosis was schizophrenia, but 47% had been diagnosed with personality disorder. Only 50% had current formal psychological therapies. The rates of violent incidents within institutions and seclusion were high, and a large proportion had unsuccessful referrals to less secure settings. Most patients had some contact with their families. We identified five classes of patients within the long-stay sample with different characteristics. Patients differed in their attribution of reasons for long stay (internal/external), outlook (positive/negative), approach (active/passive) and readiness for change. Other countries have successfully developed specific long-stay services; however, UK experts were reluctant to accept the reality of long stay and that the medical model of ‘cure’ does not work with this group. Limitations: We did not conduct file reviews on non-long-stay patients; therefore, we cannot say which factors differentiate between long-stay patients and non-long-stay patients. Conclusions: The number of long-stay patients in England is high, resulting in high resource use. Significant barriers were identified in developing designated long-stay services. Without a national strategy, these issues are likely to remain. Future work: To compare long-stay patients and non-long-stay patients. To evaluate new service models specifically designed for long-stay patients. Study registration: The National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Clinical Research Network Portfolio 129376. Funding: The NIHR Health Services and Delivery Research programm

The Visibility of (In)security: The Aesthetics of Planning Urban Defences Against Terrorism

Urban defences against terrorism have traditionally been based on territorial interventions that sought to seal off and surveil certain public and private spaces considered targets. Lately, though, a much wider range of crowded and public spaces have been viewed as potential targets and thus have been identified as requiring additional security. This has immense implications for the experience of the ‘everyday’ urban landscape. Drawing on contemporary notions that incorporate the study of aesthetics and emotions within critical security and terrorism studies, this article discusses the visual impact of counter-terrorism security measures. It analyses the ‘transmission’ of symbolic messages, as well as the variety of ways in which security might be ‘received’ by various stakeholders. The analysis takes place against the backdrop of concern that obtrusive security measures have the capacity to radically alter public experiences of space and in some cases lead to (intended and unintended) exclusionary practices or a range of negative emotional responses. The article concludes by outlining a ‘spectrum of visible security’ ranging between traditional obtrusive fortified approaches and approaches that embed security features seamlessly or even ‘invisibly’ into the urban fabric