Applied causal inference methods for sequential mediators

BACKGROUND: Mediation analysis aims at estimating to what extent the effect of an exposure on an outcome is explained by a set of mediators on the causal pathway between the exposure and the outcome. The total effect of the exposure on the outcome can be decomposed into an indirect effect, i.e. the effect explained by the mediators jointly, and a direct effect, i.e. the effect unexplained by the mediators. However finer decompositions are possible in presence of independent or sequential mediators. METHODS: We review four statistical methods to analyse multiple sequential mediators, the inverse odds ratio weighting approach, the inverse probability weighting approach, the imputation approach and the extended imputation approach. These approaches are compared and implemented using a case-study with the aim to investigate the mediating role of adverse reproductive outcomes and infant respiratory infections in the effect of maternal pregnancy mental health on infant wheezing in the Ninfea birth cohort. RESULTS: Using the inverse odds ratio weighting approach, the direct effect of maternal depression or anxiety in pregnancy is equal to a 59% (95% CI: 27%,94%) increased prevalence of infant wheezing and the mediated effect through adverse reproductive outcomes is equal to a 3% (95% CI: -6%,12%) increased prevalence of infant wheezing. When including infant lower respiratory infections in the mediation pathway, the direct effect decreases to 57% (95% CI: 25%,92%) and the indirect effect increases to 5% (95% CI: -5%,15%). The estimates of the effects obtained using the weighting and the imputation approaches are similar. The extended imputation approach suggests that the small joint indirect effect through adverse reproductive outcomes and lower respiratory infections is due entirely to the contribution of infant lower respiratory infections, and not to an increased prevalence of adverse reproductive outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The four methods revealed similar results of small mediating role of adverse reproductive outcomes and early respiratory tract infections in the effect of maternal pregnancy mental health on infant wheezing. The choice of the method depends on what is the effect of main interest, the type of the variables involved in the analysis (binary, categorical, count or continuous) and the confidence in specifying the models for the exposure, the mediators and the outcome. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12874-022-01764-w

Dietary glycemic index, glycemic load, and cancer risk: Results from the EPIC-Italy study

Abstract Factors linked to glucose metabolism are involved in the etiology of several cancers. High glycemic index (GI) or high glycemic load (GL) diets, which chronically raise postprandial blood glucose, may increase cancer risk by affecting insulin-like growth factor. We prospectively investigated cancer risk and dietary GI/GL in the EPIC-Italy cohort. After a median 14.9 years, 5112 incident cancers and 2460 deaths were identified among 45,148 recruited adults. High GI was associated with increased risk of colon and bladder cancer. High GL was associated with: increased risk of colon cancer; increased risk of diabetes-related cancers; and decreased risk of rectal cancer. High intake of carbohydrate from high GI foods was significantly associated with increased risk of colon and diabetes-related cancers, but decreased risk of stomach cancer; whereas high intake of carbohydrates from low GI foods was associated with reduced colon cancer risk. In a Mediterranean population with high and varied carbohydrate intake, carbohydrates that strongly raise postprandial blood glucose may increase colon and bladder cancer risk, while the quantity of carbohydrate consumed may be involved in diabetes-related cancers. Further studies are needed to confirm the opposing effects of high dietary GL on risks of colon and rectal cancers

Is the association between precarious employment and mental health mediated by economic difficulties in males? Results from two Italian studies

Flexible employment is increasing across Europe and recent studies show an association with poor mental health. The goal of the current study is to examine this association in the Italian population to assess the possible mediating role of financial strain. Methods: Data were obtained by two Italian cross-sectional studies (PASSI and HIS) aimed at monitoring the general population health status, health behaviours and determinants. Mental health status was assessed using alternatively two validated questionnaires (the PHQ-2 and the MCS-12 score) and Poisson regression models were performed to assess if precarious work was associated with poor mental health. A formal mediation analysis was conducted to evaluate if the association between precarious work and mental health was mediated by financial strain. Results: The analyses were performed on 31,948 subjects in PASSI and on 21,894 subjects in HIS. A nearly two-fold risk of depression and poor mental health was found among precarious workers, compared to workers with a permanent contract, which was strongly mediated by financial strain. Conclusions: Even with the limitations of a cross-sectional design, this research supports that precarious employment contributes through financial strain to reduce the mental health related quality of life and to increase mental disorders such as symptoms of depression or dysthymia. This suggests that when stability in work cannot be guaranteed, it would be appropriate to intervene on the wages of precarious jobs and to provide social safety nets for ensuring adequate income

Association of leukocyte DNA methylation changes with dietary folate and alcohol intake in the EPIC study

BACKGROUND: There is increasing evidence that folate, an important component of one-carbon metabolism, modulates the epigenome. Alcohol, which can disrupt folate absorption, is also known to affect the epigenome. We investigated the association of dietary folate and alcohol intake on leukocyte DNA methylation levels in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Leukocyte genome-wide DNA methylation profiles on approximately 450,000 CpG sites were acquired with Illumina HumanMethylation 450K BeadChip measured among 450 women control participants of a case-control study on breast cancer nested within the EPIC cohort. After data preprocessing using surrogate variable analysis to reduce systematic variation, associations of DNA methylation with dietary folate and alcohol intake, assessed with dietary questionnaires, were investigated using CpG site-specific linear models. Specific regions of the methylome were explored using differentially methylated region (DMR) analysis and fused lasso (FL) regressions. The DMR analysis combined results from the feature-specific analysis for a specific chromosome and using distances between features as weights whereas FL regression combined two penalties to encourage sparsity of single features and the difference between two consecutive features. RESULTS: After correction for multiple testing, intake of dietary folate was not associated with methylation level at any DNA methylation site, while weak associations were observed between alcohol intake and methylation level at CpG sites cg03199996 and cg07382687, with qval = 0.029 and qval = 0.048, respectively. Interestingly, the DMR analysis revealed a total of 24 and 90 regions associated with dietary folate and alcohol, respectively. For alcohol intake, 6 of the 15 most significant DMRs were identified through FL. CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol intake was associated with methylation levels at two CpG sites. Evidence from DMR and FL analyses indicated that dietary folate and alcohol intake may be associated with genomic regions with tumor suppressor activity such as the GSDMD and HOXA5 genes. These results were in line with the hypothesis that epigenetic mechanisms play a role in the association between folate and alcohol, although further studies are warranted to clarify the importance of these mechanisms in cancer

Association of leukocyte DNA methylation changes with dietary folate and alcohol intake in the EPIC study

Background: There is increasing evidence that folate, an important component of one-carbon metabolism, modulates the epigenome. Alcohol, which can disrupt folate absorption, is also known to affect the epigenome. We investigated the association of dietary folate and alcohol intake on leukocyte DNA methylation levels in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Leukocyte genome-wide DNA methylation profiles on approximately 450,000 CpG sites were acquired with Illumina HumanMethylation 450K BeadChip measured among 450 women control participants of a case-control study on breast cancer nested within the EPIC cohort. After data preprocessing using surrogate variable analysis to reduce systematic variation, associations of DNA methylation with dietary folate and alcohol intake, assessed with dietary questionnaires, were investigated using CpG site-specific linear models. Specific regions of the methylome were explored using differentially methylated region (DMR) analysis and fused lasso (FL) regressions. The DMR analysis combined results from the feature-specific analysis for a specific chromosome and using distances between features as weights whereas FL regression combined two penalties to encourage sparsity of single features and the difference between two consecutive features. Results: After correction for multiple testing, intake of dietary folate was not associated with methylation level at any DNA methylation site, while weak associations were observed between alcohol intake and methylation level at CpG sites cg03199996 and cg07382687, with q(val)=0.029 and q(val)=0.048, respectively. Interestingly, the DMR analysis revealed a total of 24 and 90 regions associated with dietary folate and alcohol, respectively. For alcohol intake, 6 of the 15 most significant DMRs were identified through FL. Conclusions: Alcohol intake was associated with methylation levels at two CpG sites. Evidence from DMR and FL analyses indicated that dietary folate and alcohol intake may be associated with genomic regions with tumor suppressor activity such as the GSDMD and HOXA5 genes. These results were in line with the hypothesis that epigenetic mechanisms play a role in the association between folate and alcohol, although further studies are warranted to clarify the importance of these mechanisms in cancer

Association between physical activity and risk of hepatobiliary cancers : A multinational cohort study

Background & Aims: To date, evidence on the association between physical activity and risk of hepatobiliary cancers has been inconclusive. Weexamined this association in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort (EPIC). Methods: We identified 275 hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cases, 93 intrahepatic bile duct cancers (IHBCs), and 164 non-gallbladder extrahepatic bile duct cancers (NGBCs) among 467,336 EPIC participants (median follow-up 14.9 years). We estimated cause-specific hazard ratios (HRs) for total physical activity and vigorous physical activity and performed mediation analysis and secondary analyses to assess robustness to confounding (e.g. due to hepatitis virus infection). Results: In the EPIC cohort, the multivariable-adjusted HR of HCC was 0.55 (95% CI 0.38-0.80) comparing active and inactive individuals. Regarding vigorous physical activity, for those reporting >2 hours/week compared to those with no vigorous activity, the HR for HCC was 0.50 (95% CI 0.33-0.76). Estimates were similar in sensitivity analyses for confounding. Total and vigorous physical activity were unrelated to IHBC and NGBC. In mediation analysis, waist circumference explained about 40% and body mass index 30% of the overall association of total physical activity and HCC. Conclusions: These findings suggest an inverse association between physical activity and risk of HCC, which is potentially mediated by obesity. Lay summary: In a pan-European study of 467,336 men and women, we found that physical activity is associated with a reduced risk of developing liver cancers over the next decade. This risk was independent of other liver cancer risk factors, and did not vary by age, gender, smoking status, body weight, and alcohol consumption. (C) 2019 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Peer reviewe

Assessment of dried blood spots for DNA methylation profiling

Background: DNA methylation reflects health-related environmental exposures and genetic risk, providing insights into aetiological mechanisms and potentially predicting disease onset, progression and treatment response. An increasingly recognised need for large-scale, longitudinally-profiled samples collected world-wide has made the development of efficient and straightforward sample collection and storage procedures a pressing issue. An alternative to the low-temperature storage of EDTA tubes of venous blood samples, which are frequently the source of the DNA used in such studies, is to collect and store at room temperature blood samples using purpose built filter paper, such as Whatman FTA® cards. Our goal was to determine whether DNA stored in this manner can be used to generate DNA methylation profiles comparable to those generated using blood samples frozen in EDTA tubes. Methods: DNA methylation profiles were obtained from matched EDTA tube and Whatman FTA® card whole-blood samples from 62 Generation Scotland: Scottish Family Health Study participants using the Infinium HumanMethylation450 BeadChip. Multiple quality control procedures were implemented, the relationship between the two sample types assessed, and epigenome-wide association studies (EWASs) performed for smoking status, age and the interaction between these variables and sample storage method. Results: Dried blood spot (DBS) DNA methylation profiles were of good quality and DNA methylation profiles from matched DBS and EDTA tube samples were highly correlated (mean r = 0.991) and could distinguish between participants. EWASs replicated established associations for smoking and age, with no evidence for moderation by storage method. Conclusions: Our results support the use of Whatman FTA® cards for collecting and storing blood samples for DNA methylation profiling. This approach is likely to be particularly beneficial for large-scale studies and those carried out in areas where freezer access is limited. Furthermore, our results will inform consideration of the use of newborn heel prick DBSs for research use