Euclid preparation: XXIV. Calibration of the halo mass function in (?)CDM cosmologies

Euclid s photometric galaxy cluster survey has the potential to be a very competitive cosmological probe. The main cosmological probe with observations of clusters is their number count, within which the halo mass function (HMF) is a key theoretical quantity. We present a new calibration of the analytic HMF, at the level of accuracy and precision required for the uncertainty in this quantity to be subdominant with respect to other sources of uncertainty in recovering cosmological parameters from Euclid cluster counts. Our model is calibrated against a suite of N-body simulations using a Bayesian approach taking into account systematic errors arising from numerical effects in the simulation. First, we test the convergence of HMF predictions from different N-body codes, by using initial conditions generated with different orders of Lagrangian Perturbation theory, and adopting different simulation box sizes and mass resolution. Then, we quantify the effect of using different halo finder algorithms, and how the resulting differences propagate to the cosmological constraints. In order to trace the violation of universality in the HMF, we also analyse simulations based on initial conditions characterised by scale-free power spectra with different spectral indexes, assuming both Einsteinde Sitter and standard CDM expansion histories. Based on these results, we construct a fitting function for the HMF that we demonstrate to be sub-percent accurate in reproducing results from 9 different variants of the CDM model including massive neutrinos cosmologies. The calibration systematic uncertainty is largely sub-dominant with respect to the expected precision of future massobservation relations; with the only notable exception of the effect due to the halo finder, that could lead to biased cosmological inference

Euclid: Covariance of weak lensing pseudo-C_ell estimates. Calculation, comparison to simulations, and dependence on survey geometry

An accurate covariance matrix is essential for obtaining reliable cosmological results when using a Gaussian likelihood. In this paper we study the covariance of pseudo-C_ estimates of tomographic cosmic shear power spectra. Using two existing publicly available codes in combination, we calculate the full covariance matrix, including mode-coupling contributions arising from both partial sky coverage and non-linear structure growth. For three different sky masks, we compare the theoretical covariance matrix to that estimated from publicly available N-body weak lensing simulations, finding good agreement. We find that as a more extreme sky cut is applied, a corresponding increase in both Gaussian off-diagonal covariance and non-Gaussian super-sample covariance is observed in both theory and simulations, in accordance with expectations. Studying the different contributions to the covariance in detail, we find that the Gaussian covariance dominates along the main diagonal and the closest off-diagonals, but further away from the main diagonal the super-sample covariance is dominant. Forming mock constraints in parameters describing matter clustering and dark energy, we find that neglecting non-Gaussian contributions to the covariance can lead to underestimating the true size of confidence regions by up to 70 per cent. The dominant non-Gaussian covariance component is the super-sample covariance, but neglecting the smaller connected non-Gaussian covariance can still lead to the underestimation of uncertainties by 10--20 per cent. A real cosmological analysis will require marginalisation over many nuisance parameters, which will decrease the relative importance of all cosmological contributions to the covariance, so these values should be taken as upper limits on the importance of each component

Euclid: Discovering pair-instability supernovae with the Deep Survey

Pair-instability supernovae are theorized supernovae that have not yet been observationally confirmed. They are predicted to exist in low-metallicity environments. Because overall metallicity becomes lower at higher redshifts, deep near-infrared transient surveys probing high-redshift supernovae are suitable to discover pair-instability supernovae. The Euclid satellite, which is planned to be launched in 2023, has a near-infrared wide-field instrument that is suitable for a high-redshift supernova survey. Although no dedicated supernova survey is currently planned during the Euclid's 6 year primary mission, the Euclid Deep Survey is planned to make regular observations of three Euclid Deep Fields (40 deg2 in total) spanning six years. While the observations of the Euclid Deep Fields are not frequent, we show that the predicted long duration of pair-instability supernovae would allow us to search for high-redshift pair-instability supernovae with the Euclid Deep Survey. Based on the current observational plan of the Euclid mission, we conduct survey simulations in order to estimate the expected numbers of pair-instability supernova discoveries. We find that up to several hundred pair-instability supernovae at z < ~ 3.5 can be discovered by the Euclid Deep Survey. We also show that pair-instability supernova candidates can be efficiently identified by their duration and color that can be determined with the current Euclid Deep Survey plan. We conclude that the Euclid mission can lead to the first confident discovery of pair-instability supernovae if their event rates are as high as those predicted by recent theoretical studies. We also update the expected numbers of superluminous supernova discoveries in the Euclid Deep Survey based on the latest observational plan.Comment: 12 pages, 13 figures, 2 tables, submitted to Astronomy & Astrophysic

Euclid: Covariance of weak lensing pseudo-Cl estimates: Calculation, comparison to simulations, and dependence on survey geometry

An accurate covariance matrix is essential for obtaining reliable cosmological results when using a Gaussian likelihood. In this paper we study the covariance of pseudo-Cestimates of tomographic cosmic shear power spectra. Using two existing publicly available codes in combination, we calculate the full covariance matrix, including mode-coupling contributions arising from both partial sky coverage and non-linear structure growth. For three different sky masks, we compare the theoretical covariance matrix to that estimated from publicly available N-body weak lensing simulations, finding good agreement. We find that as a more extreme sky cut is applied, a corresponding increase in both Gaussian off-diagonal covariance and non-Gaussian super-sample covariance is observed in both theory and simulations, in accordance with expectations. Studying the different contributions to the covariance in detail, we find that the Gaussian covariance dominates along the main diagonal and the closest off-diagonals, but farther away from the main diagonal the super-sample covariance is dominant. Forming mock constraints in parameters that describe matter clustering and dark energy, we find that neglecting non-Gaussian contributions to the covariance can lead to underestimating the true size of confidence regions by up to 70 per cent. The dominant non-Gaussian covariance component is the super-sample covariance, but neglecting the smaller connected non-Gaussian covariance can still lead to the underestimation of uncertainties by 10-20 per cent. A real cosmological analysis will require marginalisation over many nuisance parameters, which will decrease the relative importance of all cosmological contributions to the covariance, so these values should be taken as upper limits on the importance of each component

Euclid preparation - VII. Forecast validation for Euclid cosmological probes

Aims. The Euclid space telescope will measure the shapes and redshifts of galaxies to reconstruct the expansion history of the Universe and the growth of cosmic structures. The estimation of the expected performance of the experiment, in terms of predicted constraints on cosmological parameters, has so far relied on various individual methodologies and numerical implementations, which were developed for different observational probes and for the combination thereof. In this paper we present validated forecasts, which combine both theoretical and observational ingredients for different cosmological probes. This work is presented to provide the community with reliable numerical codes and methods for Euclid cosmological forecasts. Methods. We describe in detail the methods adopted for Fisher matrix forecasts, which were applied to galaxy clustering, weak lensing, and the combination thereof. We estimated the required accuracy for Euclid forecasts and outline a methodology for their development. We then compare and improve different numerical implementations, reaching uncertainties on the errors of cosmological parameters that are less than the required precision in all cases. Furthermore, we provide details on the validated implementations, some of which are made publicly available, in different programming languages, together with a reference training-set of input and output matrices for a set of specific models. These can be used by the reader to validate their own implementations if required. Results. We present new cosmological forecasts for Euclid. We find that results depend on the specific cosmological model and remaining freedom in each setting, for example flat or non-flat spatial cosmologies, or different cuts at non-linear scales. The numerical implementations are now reliable for these settings. We present the results for an optimistic and a pessimistic choice for these types of settings. We demonstrate that the impact of cross-correlations is particularly relevant for models beyond a cosmological constant and may allow us to increase the dark energy figure of merit by at least a factor of three

Euclid: Cosmological forecasts from the void size function

The Euclid mission $-$ with its spectroscopic galaxy survey covering a sky area over $15\,000 \ \mathrm{deg}^2$ in the redshift range $0.9<1.8\ -$ will provide a sample of tens of thousands of cosmic voids. This paper explores for the first time the constraining power of the void size function on the properties of dark energy (DE) from a survey mock catalogue, the official Euclid Flagship simulation. We identify voids in the Flagship light-cone, which closely matches the features of the upcoming Euclid spectroscopic data set. We model the void size function considering a state-of-the art methodology: we rely on the volume conserving (Vdn) model, a modification of the popular Sheth & van de Weygaert model for void number counts, extended by means of a linear function of the large-scale galaxy bias. We find an excellent agreement between model predictions and measured mock void number counts. We compute updated forecasts for the Euclid mission on DE from the void size function and provide reliable void number estimates to serve as a basis for further forecasts of cosmological applications using voids. We analyse two different cosmological models for DE: the first described by a constant DE equation of state parameter, $w$, and the second by a dynamic equation of state with coefficients $w_0$ and $w_a$. We forecast $1\sigma$ errors on $w$ lower than the $10\%$, and we estimate an expected figure of merit (FoM) for the dynamical DE scenario $\mathrm{FoM}_{w_0,w_a} = 17$ when considering only the neutrino mass as additional free parameter of the model. The analysis is based on conservative assumptions to ensure full robustness, and is a pathfinder for future enhancements of the technique. Our results showcase the impressive constraining power of the void size function from the Euclid spectroscopic sample, both as a stand-alone probe, and to be combined with other Euclid cosmological probes...

Euclid: Forecast constraints on consistency tests of the ∧cDM model

Context. The standard cosmological model is based on the fundamental assumptions of a spatially homogeneous and isotropic universe on large scales. An observational detection of a violation of these assumptions at any redshift would immediately indicate the presence of new physics. Aims. We quantify the ability of the Euclid mission, together with contemporary surveys, to improve the current sensitivity of null tests of the canonical cosmological constant ∧ and the cold dark matter (∧ CDM) model in the redshift range 0 < 1.8. Methods. We considered both currently available data and simulated Euclid and external data products based on a ∧CDM fiducial model, an evolving dark energy model assuming the Chevallier-Polarski-Linder parameterization or an inhomogeneous Lemaître-Tolman-Bondi model with a cosmological constant ∧, and carried out two separate but complementary analyses: A machine learning reconstruction of the null tests based on genetic algorithms, and a theory-Agnostic parametric approach based on Taylor expansion and binning of the data, in order to avoid assumptions about any particular model. Results. We find that in combination with external probes, Euclid can improve current constraints on null tests of the ∧CDM by approximately a factor of three when using the machine learning approach and by a further factor of two in the case of the parametric approach. However, we also find that in certain cases, the parametric approach may be biased against or missing some features of models far from ∧CDM. Conclusions. Our analysis highlights the importance of synergies between Euclid and other surveys. These synergies are crucial for providing tighter constraints over an extended redshift range for a plethora of different consistency tests of some of the main assumptions of the current cosmological paradigm

Euclid: Modelling massive neutrinos in cosmology -- a code comparison

The measurement of the absolute neutrino mass scale from cosmological large-scale clustering data is one of the key science goals of the Euclid mission. Such a measurement relies on precise modelling of the impact of neutrinos on structure formation, which can be studied with $N$-body simulations. Here we present the results from a major code comparison effort to establish the maturity and reliability of numerical methods for treating massive neutrinos. The comparison includes eleven full $N$-body implementations (not all of them independent), two $N$-body schemes with approximate time integration, and four additional codes that directly predict or emulate the matter power spectrum. Using a common set of initial data we quantify the relative agreement on the nonlinear power spectrum of cold dark matter and baryons and, for the $N$-body codes, also the relative agreement on the bispectrum, halo mass function, and halo bias. We find that the different numerical implementations produce fully consistent results. We can therefore be confident that we can model the impact of massive neutrinos at the sub-percent level in the most common summary statistics. We also provide a code validation pipeline for future reference.Comment: 43 pages, 17 figures, 2 tables; published on behalf of the Euclid Consortium; data available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.729797

The PAU Survey & Euclid: Improving broad-band photometric redshifts with multi-task learning

Current and future imaging surveys require photometric redshifts (photo-z) to be estimated for millions of galaxies. Improving the photo-z quality is a major challenge to advance our understanding of cosmology. In this paper, we explore how the synergies between narrow-band photometric data and large imaging surveys can be exploited to improve broad-band photometric redshifts. We use a multi-task learning (MTL) network to improve broad-band photo-z estimates by simultaneously predicting the broad-band photo-z and the narrow-band photometry from the broad-band photometry. The narrow-band photometry is only required in the training field, which enables better photo-z predictions also for the galaxies without narrow-band photometry in the wide field. This technique is tested with data from the Physics of the Accelerating Universe Survey (PAUS) in the COSMOS field. We find that the method predicts photo-z that are 14% more precise down to magnitude i_AB<23, while reducing the outlier rate by 40% with respect to the baseline network mapping broad-band colours to only photo-zs. Furthermore, MTL significantly reduces the photo-z bias for high-redshift galaxies, improving the redshift distributions for tomographic bins with z>1. Applying this technique to deeper samples is crucial for future surveys like \Euclid or LSST. For simulated data, training on a sample with i_AB <23, the method reduces the photo-z scatter by 15% for all galaxies with 24<i_AB<25. We also study the effects of extending the training sample with photometric galaxies using PAUS high-precision photo-zs, which further reduces the photo-z scatter.Comment: 20 pages, 16 figure

Euclid preparation: VII. Forecast validation for Euclid cosmological probes

Aims. The Euclid space telescope will measure the shapes and redshifts of galaxies to reconstruct the expansion history of the Universe and the growth of cosmic structures. The estimation of the expected performance of the experiment, in terms of predicted constraints on cosmological parameters, has so far relied on various individual methodologies and numerical implementations, which were developed for different observational probes and for the combination thereof. In this paper we present validated forecasts, which combine both theoretical and observational ingredients for different cosmological probes. This work is presented to provide the community with reliable numerical codes and methods for Euclid cosmological forecasts. Methods. We describe in detail the methods adopted for Fisher matrix forecasts, which were applied to galaxy clustering, weak lensing, and the combination thereof. We estimated the required accuracy for Euclid forecasts and outline a methodology for their development. We then compare and improve different numerical implementations, reaching uncertainties on the errors of cosmological parameters that are less than the required precision in all cases. Furthermore, we provide details on the validated implementations, some of which are made publicly available, in different programming languages, together with a reference training-set of input and output matrices for a set of specific models. These can be used by the reader to validate their own implementations if required. Results. We present new cosmological forecasts for Euclid. We find that results depend on the specific cosmological model and remaining freedom in each setting, for example flat or non-flat spatial cosmologies, or different cuts at non-linear scales. The numerical implementations are now reliable for these settings. We present the results for an optimistic and a pessimistic choice for these types of settings. We demonstrate that the impact of cross-correlations is particularly relevant for models beyond a cosmological constant and may allow us to increase the dark energy figure of merit by at least a factor of three