Towards the new Thematic Core Service Tsunami within the EPOS Research Infrastructure

Tsunamis constitute a significant hazard for European coastal populations, and the impact of tsunami events worldwide can extend well beyond the coastal regions directly affected. Understanding the complex mechanisms of tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation, as well as managing the tsunami risk, requires multidisciplinary research and infrastructures that cross national boundaries. Recent decades have seen both great advances in tsunami science and consolidation of the European tsunami research community. A recurring theme has been the need for a sustainable platform for coordinated tsunami community activities and a hub for tsunami services. Following about three years of preparation, in July 2021, the European tsunami community attained the status of Candidate Thematic Core Service (cTCS) within the European Plate Observing System (EPOS) Research Infrastructure. Within a transition period of three years, the Tsunami candidate TCS is anticipated to develop into a fully operational EPOS TCS. We here outline the path taken to reach this point, and the envisaged form of the future EPOS TCS Tsunami. Our cTCS is planned to be organised within four thematic pillars: (1) Support to Tsunami Service Providers, (2) Tsunami Data, (3) Numerical Models, and (4) Hazard and Risk Products. We outline how identified needs in tsunami science and tsunami risk mitigation will be addressed within this structure and how participation within EPOS will become an integration point for community development

Towards the new Thematic Core Service Tsunami within the EPOS Research Infrastructure

Tsunamis constitute a significant hazard for European coastal populations, and the impact of tsunami events worldwide can extend well beyond the coastal regions directly affected. Understanding the complex mechanisms of tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation, as well as managing the tsunami risk, requires multidisciplinary research and infrastructures that cross national boundaries. Recent decades have seen both great advances in tsunami science and consolidation of the European tsunami research community. A recurring theme has been the need for a sustainable platform for coordinated tsunami community activities and a hub for tsunami services. Following about three years of preparation, in July 2021, the European tsunami community attained the status of Candidate Thematic Core Service (cTCS) within the European Plate Observing System (EPOS) Research Infrastructure. Within a transition period of three years, the Tsunami candidate TCS is anticipated to develop into a fully operational EPOS TCS. We here outline the path taken to reach this point, and the envisaged form of the future EPOS TCS Tsunami. Our cTCS is planned to be organised within four thematic pillars: (1) Support to Tsunami Service Providers, (2) Tsunami Data, (3) Numerical Models, and (4) Hazard and Risk Products. We outline how identified needs in tsunami science and tsunami risk mitigation will be addressed within this structure and how participation within EPOS will become an integration point for community development.publishedVersio

Towards the new Thematic Core Service Tsunami within the EPOS Research Infrastructure

publishedVersio

Influence of Antisynthetase Antibodies Specificities on Antisynthetase Syndrome Clinical Spectrum TimeCourse

Introduction: Increased cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and mortality is observed in inflammatory joint diseases (IJDs) such as rheumatoid arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, and psoriatic arthritis. However, the management of CV disease in these conditions is far from being well established.Areas covered: This review summarizes the main epidemiologic, pathophysiological, and clinical risk factors of CV disease associated with IJDs. Less common aspects on early diagnosis and risk stratification of the CV disease in these conditions are also discussed. In Europe, the most commonly used risk algorithm in patients with IJDs is the modified SCORE index based on the revised recommendations proposed by the EULAR task force in 2017.Expert opinion: Early identification of IJD patients at high risk of CV disease is essential. It should include the use of complementary noninvasive imaging techniques. A multidisciplinary approach aimed to improve heart-healthy habits, including strict control of classic CV risk factors is crucial. Adequate management of the underlying IJD is also of main importance since the reduction of disease activity decreases the risk of CV events. Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs may have a lesser harmful effect in IJD than in the general population, due to their anti-inflammatory effects along with other potential beneficial effects.This research was partially funded by FOREUM—Foundation for Research in Rheumatolog

Continuous vs Intermittent Meropenem Administration in Critically Ill Patients With Sepsis

Importance: Meropenem is a widely prescribed β-lactam antibiotic. Meropenem exhibits maximum pharmacodynamic efficacy when given by continuous infusion to deliver constant drug levels above the minimal inhibitory concentration. Compared with intermittent administration, continuous administration of meropenem may improve clinical outcomes. Objective: To determine whether continuous administration of meropenem reduces a composite of mortality and emergence of pandrug-resistant or extensively drug-resistant bacteria compared with intermittent administration in critically ill patients with sepsis. Design, setting, and participants: A double-blind, randomized clinical trial enrolling critically ill patients with sepsis or septic shock who had been prescribed meropenem by their treating clinicians at 31 intensive care units of 26 hospitals in 4 countries (Croatia, Italy, Kazakhstan, and Russia). Patients were enrolled between June 5, 2018, and August 9, 2022, and the final 90-day follow-up was completed in November 2022. Interventions: Patients were randomized to receive an equal dose of the antibiotic meropenem by either continuous administration (n = 303) or intermittent administration (n = 304). Main outcomes and measures: The primary outcome was a composite of all-cause mortality and emergence of pandrug-resistant or extensively drug-resistant bacteria at day 28. There were 4 secondary outcomes, including days alive and free from antibiotics at day 28, days alive and free from the intensive care unit at day 28, and all-cause mortality at day 90. Seizures, allergic reactions, and mortality were recorded as adverse events. Results: All 607 patients (mean age, 64 [SD, 15] years; 203 were women [33%]) were included in the measurement of the 28-day primary outcome and completed the 90-day mortality follow-up. The majority (369 patients, 61%) had septic shock. The median time from hospital admission to randomization was 9 days (IQR, 3-17 days) and the median duration of meropenem therapy was 11 days (IQR, 6-17 days). Only 1 crossover event was recorded. The primary outcome occurred in 142 patients (47%) in the continuous administration group and in 149 patients (49%) in the intermittent administration group (relative risk, 0.96 [95% CI, 0.81-1.13], P = .60). Of the 4 secondary outcomes, none was statistically significant. No adverse events of seizures or allergic reactions related to the study drug were reported. At 90 days, mortality was 42% both in the continuous administration group (127 of 303 patients) and in the intermittent administration group (127 of 304 patients). Conclusions and relevance: In critically ill patients with sepsis, compared with intermittent administration, the continuous administration of meropenem did not improve the composite outcome of mortality and emergence of pandrug-resistant or extensively drug-resistant bacteria at day 28. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03452839

Dissecting the Shared Genetic Architecture of Suicide Attempt, Psychiatric Disorders, and Known Risk Factors

Background Suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide, and nonfatal suicide attempts, which occur far more frequently, are a major source of disability and social and economic burden. Both have substantial genetic etiology, which is partially shared and partially distinct from that of related psychiatric disorders. Methods We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 29,782 suicide attempt (SA) cases and 519,961 controls in the International Suicide Genetics Consortium (ISGC). The GWAS of SA was conditioned on psychiatric disorders using GWAS summary statistics via multitrait-based conditional and joint analysis, to remove genetic effects on SA mediated by psychiatric disorders. We investigated the shared and divergent genetic architectures of SA, psychiatric disorders, and other known risk factors. Results Two loci reached genome-wide significance for SA: the major histocompatibility complex and an intergenic locus on chromosome 7, the latter of which remained associated with SA after conditioning on psychiatric disorders and replicated in an independent cohort from the Million Veteran Program. This locus has been implicated in risk-taking behavior, smoking, and insomnia. SA showed strong genetic correlation with psychiatric disorders, particularly major depression, and also with smoking, pain, risk-taking behavior, sleep disturbances, lower educational attainment, reproductive traits, lower socioeconomic status, and poorer general health. After conditioning on psychiatric disorders, the genetic correlations between SA and psychiatric disorders decreased, whereas those with nonpsychiatric traits remained largely unchanged. Conclusions Our results identify a risk locus that contributes more strongly to SA than other phenotypes and suggest a shared underlying biology between SA and known risk factors that is not mediated by psychiatric disorders.Peer reviewe

A heuristic features selection approach for scenario analysis in a regional seismic probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment

International audienceSeismic Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (SPTHA) is aimed at estimating the annual rate of exceedance of an earthquake-induced tsunami wave of a certain location with reference to a predefined height threshold. The analysis relies on computationally demanding numerical simulations of seismic-induced tsunami wave generation and propagation. A large number of scenarios needs to be simulated to account for uncertainties. However, the exceedance of tsunami wave threshold height is a rare event so that most of the simulated scenarios bring little statistical contribution to the estimation of the annual rate yet increasing the computational burden. To efficiently address this issue, we propose a wrapper-based heuristic approach to select the set of most relevant features of the seismic model, for deciding a priori the seismic scenarios to be simulated. The proposed approach is based on a Multi-Objective Differential Evolution Algorithm (MODEA) and is developed with reference to a case study whose objective is calculating the annual rate of threshold exceedance of the height of tsunami waves caused by subduction earthquakes that might be generated on a section of the Hellenic Arc, and propagated to a set of target sites: Siracusa, on the eastern coast of Sicily, Crotone, on the southern coast of Calabria, and Santa Maria di Leuca, on the southern coast of Puglia. The results show that, in all cases, the proposed approach allows a reduction of 95% of the number of scenarios with half of the features to be considered, and with no appreciable loss of accuracy

Parallel density scanned adaptive Kriging to improve local tsunami hazard assessment for coastal infrastructures

International audienceSeismic Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (SPTHA) is a framework for calculating the probability that seismically induced tsunami waves exceed a specific threshold height, over a given time span and a specific region (i.e. regional SPTHA) or site (i.e. local SPTHA). To account for the uncertainty of the possible sources, SPTHA must integrate the results of a large number of computationally demanding tsunami simulations. In this work, we innovatively use Parallel density scanned Adaptive Kriging (P-ds AK) to overcome the computational efficiency challenge of local SPTHA within a framework that consists in modeling/retrieving the full spectrum of possible earthquake triggering events at the regional level, filtering sources not relevant for the target, adopting a clustering procedure to select “representative scenarios” for inundation modeling, and, finally, adopt P-ds AK to identify the clusters centroids that most influence the hazard intensity (i.e., wave height) in the areas of interest. This approach is applied in the area of the oil refinery located in Milazzo (Italy). The application shows a consistent reduction of the number of high-resolution tsunami simulations required for the evaluation of the hazard curves over a set of inland Point of Interest (PoIs), either concentrated in one specific area or distributed along the coast

A Bootstrapped Modularised method of Global Sensitivity Analysis applied to Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) evaluates the probability of exceedance of a given earthquake intensity threshold like the Peak Ground Acceleration, at a target site for a given exposure time. The stochasticity of the occurrence of seismic events is modelled by stochastic processes and the propagation of the earthquake wave in the soil is typically evaluated by empirical relationships called Ground Motion Prediction Equations. The large uncertainty affecting PSHA is quantified by defining alternative model settings and/or model parametrizations. In this work, we propose a novel Bootstrapped Modularised Global Sensitivity Analysis (BMGSA) method for identifying the model parameters most important for the uncertainty in PSHA, that consists in generating alternative artificial datasets by bootstrapping an available input-output dataset and aggregating the individual rankings obtained with the modularized method from each of those. The proposed method is tested on a realistic PSHA case study in Italy. The results are compared with a standard variance-based Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) method of literature. The novelty and strength of the proposed BMGSA method are both in the fact that its application only requires input-output data and not the use of a PSHA code for repeated calculations