Energy model, boundary object and societal lens: 35 years of the MARKAL model in the UK

Abstract Technical energy models operate within social systems and those that perform particular social as well as technical functions are more likely to be used. We illustrate this with the example of the MARKAL energy system model in the UK, a model that is also widely used internationally. In the UK, MARKAL modelling has a long history helping underpin government energy and climate policy. We trace the use of the model from its initial development in the mid-1970s to the present day, highlighting attributes that contribute to its role as a successful ‘boundary object’ for different but interconnecting energy policy communities. We suggest that changing images of the energy policy problem have enabled MARKAL to shift from an initial role in identifying technologies to reduce oil dependency to playing a key role in target-oriented climate policy. Furthermore, we argue that the ability of MARKAL to perform different roles for different groups has served to embed and institutionalise the model in the energy policy community. Moreover, the capacity of the model to represent detailed technology options has accorded with a technological focus that has suited prevailing, shared conceptions of the energy-climate policy problem

Consumption-based GHG emission accounting: a UK case study

Global GHG emissions continue to rise, with nearly a quarter of it due to trade that is not currently captured within global climate policy. In the context of current trade patterns and limited global cooperation on climate change, the feasibility of consumption-based emissions accounting to contribute to a more comprehensive (national) policy framework in the UK is investigated. Consumption-based emissions results for the UK from a range of models are presented, their technical robustness is assessed, and their potential application in national climate policy is examined using examples of policies designed to reduce carbon leakage and to address high levels of consumption. It is shown that there is a need to include consumption-based emissions as a complementary indicator to the current approach of measuring territorial emissions. Methods are shown to be robust enough to measure progress on climate change and develop and inform mitigation policy. Finally, some suggestions are made for future policy-oriented research in the area of consumption-based accounting that will facilitate its application to policy

Are consumers willing to switch to smart time of use electricity tariffs? The importance of loss-aversion and electric vehicle ownership

Smart time of use tariffs are a key part of most government’s strategies to ensure our future electricity supply is clean, affordable and secure – but will consumers be willing to switch to them? This paper presents the results of a survey experiment conducted on a nationally representative sample of 2020 British energy bill payers. The data suggests that over a third of bill payers are in favour of switching to a 3-tiered smart time of use tariff, indicating a sizeable potential market for these tariffs. There is substantial variation in willingness to switch, driven by differences in loss-aversion and ownership of demand flexible appliances rather than standard socio-economic/demographic factors. This is the first time loss-aversion has been measured amongst energy bill payers and the results suggest loss-aversion is likely to stifle consumer uptake; 93% of bill payers are loss-averse (care more about avoiding financial losses than making savings) and loss-averse people are substantially less willing to switch to the time of use tariff (p < 0.001). A randomised control trial finds that loss-framed messages are unlikely to overcome loss-aversion to boost uptake. Marketing campaigns tailored towards electric vehicle owners, who were significantly more willing to switch, could increase uptake during and after the smart meter roll-out