Report to the Advisory Committee of IIASA's Energy Program

In this paper the various present activities of the Energy Systems Program (ENP) and the results obtained so far are described in a summarizing report. In the first part the reader is introduced to the general time scale, the general aims and concepts, and the present status of the ENP. Furthermore, the interrelations and interactions between the individual tasks are pointed out. In the second part, several contributions describe in more detail specific activities. The following topics have been covered as examples of work done within the ENP: -- the energy demand models MUSE and MEDEE; -- the potential of coal for primary and secondary energy; -- regional applications of solar technologies; -- large-scale energy production and the climate; -- health effects of energy use; -- a model for market penetration mechanisms; -- risk assessment; -- the computerization of the ENP's modeling effort

The Fast Breeder as a Cornerstone for Future Large Supplies of Energy

The purpose of this paper is to put the development of the fast breeder and its deployment into the perspective of the current energy problem. This appears to be necessary as the early development stages of the fast breeder took place when the world looked quite different. Also, more and more there appears to be a widespread misinterpretation of its features and capabilities. But before we examine the fast breeder, it is appropriate to identify a few features of the general energy problem as we see it today

New Societal Equations (IV)

The expression "societal equations" shall be considered only as a terminus technicus and not be given any philosophical meaning. What is meant is a set of equations for the description of the embedding of technological. strategies, mostly into an economy in a broad sense. Yet the format of the equations is conceived in such a way that generalizations for their embedding into the environment and the sociosphere can be considered as well. This paper is a step in a series geared at the fuller understanding of embedding

Energy Choices that Europe Faces: A European View of Energy

In conclusion, I feel that the energy challenge, tough as it is, does not pose unsurmountable technological problems, even in Europe. At least in principle, the necessary technology is already there. This article is meant to make that statement plausible. It is not the intention to insist on certain ideas. It is important, however, to have a consistent approach, and this means to obey the timing of the problem. Therefore the most important aspect during the transition phase probably is the buildup of a modern secondary energy system. In the long run it will ibe energy embedding and not the production of energy which will be the principal driving force for the development, because in principle at least there is more than one option to provide almost unlimited amounts of energy. In order to meet the demand for an appropriate embedding of energy, the concept of primary energy parks in the open sea seems to be most promising

A Global and Long-Range Picture of Energy Developments

Most studies of energy supply and demand ignore either global interdependence or the long time spans necessary to adjust to new energy sources. The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis has therefore studied on a global scale, for seven major world regions, the balance between energy supply and demand to the next 50 years. Reported here are the results for two benchmark scenarios. In the "low" scenario world energy consumption increases from today's 8.2 terawatt-year per year to 22 terawatt-year per year in 2030; in the "high" scenario, consumption increases to 35 terawatt-year per year. The study showed that time will be the limiting constraint in adapting the energy supply infrastructure to changing resource availability; resources will be available until the second half of the next century, but a strong shift will be required to low-grade fossil fuels such as shale oil and tar sands. Each scenario studied indicated increased environmental problems associated with increased use of fossil fuels, and potential geopolitical problems associated with the world distribution of resources

Energy Strategies and the Case of Nuclear Power

In the past, almost all the attention of the nuclear engineering community has been concentrated on the nuclear reactor. Reference is made to the recent OECD survey on the anticipated growth of nuclear power in the OECD countries. That growth is accompanied by a buildup of nuclear fuel cycle facilities, and related OECD data are reported. Ecological and environmental considerations raise the problem of the necessary tightness of the fuel cycle; this is quantitatively evaluated, in particular for a reprocessing facility. Related considerations for regulatory requirements are discussed. Nuclear fuel cycle parks and energy centers are treated, as are features of secondary energy systems, leading to more global considerations on nuclear fuel cycle deployments. The paper concludes with conjectures on features of the terawatt domain

Energy Strategies

The amount of fossil energy reserves and resources suggests a transition to an energy supply system that is based on a quasi-infinite fuel supply. Several options exist for this transition such as the nuclear breeder or solar power. Strategies for transitions have to meet a certain demand for energy. A simple but global scenario is given for such energy demand with emphasis on low demand in conjunction with fossil fuels. Consideration is given to the constraints of such fossil energy production and emphasis is put on the CO2 problem. This allows a rough understanding of the time scale of such transitions. In view of the timing of the transition the various options for quasi-infinite supplies of energy are considered and priorities of a number of physics tasks are conceived

Systems Aspects of Environmental Accountability

Human activities have increased in such a way that there now exists the danger that some global balances will be disturbed. As a result, there is today a widespread effort to get precise knowledge about these balances themselves as well as about the consequences of possible disturbances in these balances. Because of their magnitude, these problems are inter-related with other problems. Additionally, effects which were considered earlier to be side effects become important. All this means that for the treatment of these problems a systems approach seems necessary. This paper recommends use of the general concept of material accountability for the analysis and treatment of these problems. This has already been proposed by different groups. The reason it is emphasized here is that the material accountability concept has proven extremely valuable in the establishment of the IAEA safeguards system for nuclear material in the peaceful nuclear industry. It is especially the organization of this system in the plant operator's responsibility (generation and reporting of source data for material balance) and in the safeguards authority's responsibility (verification of these data by means of independent measurements) which allowed the acceptance of this system on a broad international scale and which GROSSO MODO could serve as an example for any future global monitoring system. In the first part of this paper, examples for balances existing in nature are given: oxygen, carbon dioxide, radiation balance of the earth atmosphere system. Models for these balances and their disturbances as well as the respective measurements are reported. In the second part we have tried to explain why the treatment of these problems necessarily leads into the field of systems analysis. Special reference is made to the problems outlined in this paper. As an example for this kind of approach and for an existing global control system, the IAEA safeguards system and the mathematical models developed in the course of establishing that system are sketched in the third part. In the fourth part, the economic implications of material accountability are described using the input-output approach; for the example of sulphur it is demonstrated in which way the consequences of constraints -- e.g. in the form of emission standards -- can be analyzed. The paper ends with a schematic representation of the complex interrelations between the basic concepts: material accountability, verification by means of measurements, and economic implications