Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions

The evolving SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Africa: Insights from rapidly expanding genomic surveillance

INTRODUCTION Investment in Africa over the past year with regard to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sequencing has led to a massive increase in the number of sequences, which, to date, exceeds 100,000 sequences generated to track the pandemic on the continent. These sequences have profoundly affected how public health officials in Africa have navigated the COVID-19 pandemic. RATIONALE We demonstrate how the first 100,000 SARS-CoV-2 sequences from Africa have helped monitor the epidemic on the continent, how genomic surveillance expanded over the course of the pandemic, and how we adapted our sequencing methods to deal with an evolving virus. Finally, we also examine how viral lineages have spread across the continent in a phylogeographic framework to gain insights into the underlying temporal and spatial transmission dynamics for several variants of concern (VOCs). RESULTS Our results indicate that the number of countries in Africa that can sequence the virus within their own borders is growing and that this is coupled with a shorter turnaround time from the time of sampling to sequence submission. Ongoing evolution necessitated the continual updating of primer sets, and, as a result, eight primer sets were designed in tandem with viral evolution and used to ensure effective sequencing of the virus. The pandemic unfolded through multiple waves of infection that were each driven by distinct genetic lineages, with B.1-like ancestral strains associated with the first pandemic wave of infections in 2020. Successive waves on the continent were fueled by different VOCs, with Alpha and Beta cocirculating in distinct spatial patterns during the second wave and Delta and Omicron affecting the whole continent during the third and fourth waves, respectively. Phylogeographic reconstruction points toward distinct differences in viral importation and exportation patterns associated with the Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants and subvariants, when considering both Africa versus the rest of the world and viral dissemination within the continent. Our epidemiological and phylogenetic inferences therefore underscore the heterogeneous nature of the pandemic on the continent and highlight key insights and challenges, for instance, recognizing the limitations of low testing proportions. We also highlight the early warning capacity that genomic surveillance in Africa has had for the rest of the world with the detection of new lineages and variants, the most recent being the characterization of various Omicron subvariants. CONCLUSION Sustained investment for diagnostics and genomic surveillance in Africa is needed as the virus continues to evolve. This is important not only to help combat SARS-CoV-2 on the continent but also because it can be used as a platform to help address the many emerging and reemerging infectious disease threats in Africa. In particular, capacity building for local sequencing within countries or within the continent should be prioritized because this is generally associated with shorter turnaround times, providing the most benefit to local public health authorities tasked with pandemic response and mitigation and allowing for the fastest reaction to localized outbreaks. These investments are crucial for pandemic preparedness and response and will serve the health of the continent well into the 21st century

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

Abstract Background Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries. Results In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries

Clinical Characteristics and Outcomes of Patients With Antithyroid Drug-Related Liver Injury.

CONTEXT: Antithyroid drugs (ATDs) are the cornerstone of hyperthyroidism management. Hepatotoxicity due to ATDs can range from mild transaminase elevation to liver transplantation requirement and mortality. OBJECTIVE: The primary objective of the systematic review was to assess the clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients with drug induced liver injury (DILI) due to ATDs. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of PUBMED, SCOPUS, and EMBASE on characteristics and outcomes of adults (\u3e18 years) with DILI due to ATDs. We defined DILI as bilirubin ≥2.5 mg/dL or international normalized ratio \u3e1.5 with any rise in alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aminotransferase (AST), or alkaline phosphatase (ALP), or an elevation of ALT or AST \u3e5 times or ALP \u3e2 times the upper limit of normal without jaundice/coagulopathy. RESULTS: The review included 100 articles describing 271 patients; 148 (70.8%) were female (N = 209). Mean age was 42.9 ± 17.2 years. Graves\u27 disease was the most common indication for ATDs. Carbimazole/methimazole (CBM/MMI) was the most common offending agent (55.7%). DILI pattern was hepatocellular in 41.8%, cholestatic in 41.3%, and mixed in 16.9%. Outcomes included death in 11.8%, liver transplantation in 6.4%, partial improvement in 2.2%, and complete resolution in 79.6% with a median time (IQR) to resolution of 45 (20-90) days. Patients in the propylthiouracil (PTU) group had higher initial bilirubin, initial AST, initial ALT, peak ALT, peak AST, severe and fatal DILI, liver transplantation, and mortality than CBM/MMI. Rechallenge of antithyroid medication was infrequently reported (n = 16) but was successful in 75%. CONCLUSION: DILI due to ATDs can present with different patterns and should prompt immediate drug discontinuation. Referral to a hepatologist should be considered if severe as transplantation is sometimes required. PTU-induced DILI may have worse outcomes than CBM/MMI

Global perspective of familial hypercholesterolaemia: a cross-sectional study from the EAS Familial Hypercholesterolaemia Studies Collaboration (FHSC)

none724siBackground The European Atherosclerosis Society Familial Hypercholesterolaemia Studies Collaboration (FHSC) global registry provides a platform for the global surveillance of familial hypercholesterolaemia through harmonisation and pooling of multinational data. In this study, we aimed to characterise the adult population with heterozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia and described how it is detected and managed globally.Methods Using FHSC global registry data, we did a cross-sectional assessment of adults (aged 18 years or older) with a clinical or genetic diagnosis of probable or definite heterozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia at the time they were entered into the registries. Data were assessed overall and by WHO regions, sex, and index versus non-index cases.Findings Of the 61 612 individuals in the registry, 42 167 adults (21 999 [53.6%] women) from 56 countries were included in the study. Of these, 31 798 (75.4%) were diagnosed with the Dutch Lipid Clinic Network criteria, and 35 490 (84.2%) were from the WHO region of Europe. Median age of participants at entry in the registry was 46.2 years (IQR 34.3-58.0); median age at diagnosis of familial hypercholesterolaemia was 44.4 years (32.5-56.5), with 40.2% of participants younger than 40 years when diagnosed. Prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors increased progressively with age and varied by WHO region. Prevalence of coronary disease was 17.4% (2.1% for stroke and 5.2% for peripheral artery disease), increasing with concentrations of untreated LDL cholesterol, and was about two times lower in women than in men. Among patients receiving lipid-lowering medications, 16 803 (81.1%) were receiving statins and 3691 (21.2%) were on combination therapy, with greater use of more potent lipid-lowering medication in men than in women. Median LDL cholesterol was 5.43 mmol/L (IQR 4.32-6.72) among patients not taking lipid-lowering medications and 4.23 mmol/L (3.20-5.66) among those taking them. Among patients taking lipid-lowering medications, 2.7% had LDL cholesterol lower than 1.8 mmol/L; the use of combination therapy, particularly with three drugs and with proprotein convertase subtilisin-kexin type 9 inhibitors, was associated with a higher proportion and greater odds of having LDL cholesterol lower than 1.8 mmol/L. Compared with index cases, patients who were non-index cases were younger, with lower LDL cholesterol and lower prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and cardiovascular diseases (all p<0.001).Interpretation Familial hypercholesterolaemia is diagnosed late. Guideline-recommended LDL cholesterol concentrations are infrequently achieved with single-drug therapy. Cardiovascular risk factors and presence of coronary disease were lower among non-index cases, who were diagnosed earlier. Earlier detection and greater use of combination therapies are required to reduce the global burden of familial hypercholesterolaemia. Copyright (C) 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.mixedVallejo-Vaz, Antonio J.; Stevens, Christophe A.T.; Lyons, Alexander R.M.; Dharmayat, Kanika I.; Freiberger, Tomas; Hovingh, G. Kees; Mata, Pedro; Raal, Frederick J.; Santos, Raul D.; Soran, Handrean; Watts, Gerald F.; Abifadel, Marianne; Aguilar-Salinas, Carlos A.; Alhabib, Khalid F.; Alkhnifsawi, Mutaz; Almahmeed, Wael; Alnouri, Fahad; Alonso, Rodrigo; Al-Rasadi, Khalid; Al-Sarraf, Ahmad; Al-Sayed, Nasreen; Araujo, Francisco; Ashavaid, Tester F.; Banach, Maciej; Béliard, Sophie; Benn, Marianne; Binder, Christoph J.; Bogsrud, Martin P.; Bourbon, Mafalda; Chlebus, Krzysztof; Corral, Pablo; Davletov, Kairat; Descamps, Olivier S.; Durst, Ronen; Ezhov, Marat; Gaita, Dan; Genest, Jacques; Groselj, Urh; Harada-Shiba, Mariko; Holven, Kirsten B.; Kayikcioglu, Meral; Khovidhunkit, Weerapan; Lalic, Katarina; Latkovskis, Gustavs; Laufs, Ulrich; Liberopoulos, Evangelos; Lima-Martinez, Marcos M.; Lin, Jie; Maher, Vincent; Marais, A. David; März, Winfried; Mirrakhimov, Erkin; Miserez, André R.; Mitchenko, Olena; Nawawi, Hapizah; Nordestgaard, Børge G.; Panayiotou, Andrie G.; Paragh, György; Petrulioniene, Zaneta; Pojskic, Belma; Postadzhiyan, Arman; Raslova, Katarina; Reda, Ashraf; Reiner, Željko; Sadiq, Fouzia; Sadoh, Wilson Ehidiamen; Schunkert, Heribert; Shek, Aleksandr B.; Stoll, Mario; Stroes, Erik; Su, Ta-Chen; Subramaniam, Tavintharan; Susekov, Andrey V.; Tilney, Myra; Tomlinson, Brian; Truong, Thanh Huong; Tselepis, Alexandros D.; Tybjærg-Hansen, Anne; Vázquez Cárdenas, Alejandra; Viigimaa, Margus; Wang, Luya; Yamashita, Shizuya; Kastelein, John J.P.; Bruckert, Eric; Vohnout, Branislav; Schreier, Laura; Pang, Jing; Ebenbichler, Christoph; Dieplinger, Hans; Innerhofer, Reinhold; Winhofer-Stöckl, Yvonne; Greber-Platzer, Susanne; Krychtiuk, Konstantin; Speidl, Walter; Toplak, Hermann; Widhalm, Kurt; Stulnig, Thomas; Huber, Kurt; Höllerl, Florian; Rega-Kaun, Gersina; Kleemann, Lucas; Mäser, Martin; Scholl-Bürgi, Sabine; Säly, Christoph; Mayer, Florian J.; Sablon, Gaelle; Tarantino, Eric; Nzeyimana, Charlotte; Pojskic, Lamija; Sisic, Ibrahim; Nalbantic, Azra D.; Jannes, Cinthia E.; Pereira, Alexandre C.; Krieger, Jose E.; Petrov, Ivo; Goudev, Assen; Nikolov, Fedya; Tisheva, Snejana; Yotov, Yoto; Tzvetkov, Ivajlo; Baass, Alexis; Bergeron, Jean; Bernard, Sophie; Brisson, Diane; Brunham, Liam R.; Cermakova, Lubomira; Couture, Patrick; Francis, Gordon A.; Gaudet, Daniel; Hegele, Robert A.; Khoury, Etienne; Mancini, G.B. John; McCrindle, Brian W.; Paquette, Martine; Ruel, Isabelle; Cuevas, Ada; Asenjo, Sylvia; Wang, Xumin; Meng, Kang; Song, Xiantao; Yong, Qiang; Jiang, Tao; Liu, Ziyou; Duan, Yanyu; Hong, Jing; Ye, Pucong; Chen, Yan; Qi, Jianguang; Liu, Zesen; Li, Yuntao; Zhang, Chaoyi; Peng, Jie; Yang, Ya; Yu, Wei; Wang, Qian; Yuan, Hui; Cheng, Shitong; Jiang, Long; Chong, Mei; Jiao, Jian; Wu, Yue; Wen, Wenhui; Xu, Liyuan; Zhang, Ruiying; Qu, Yichen; He, Jianxun; Fan, Xuesong; Wang, Zhenjia; Chow, Elaine; Pećin, Ivan; Perica, Dražen; Symeonides, Phivos; Vrablik, Michal; Ceska, Richard; Soska, Vladimir; Tichy, Lukas; Adamkova, Vera; Franekova, Jana; Cifkova, Renata; Kraml, Pavel; Vonaskova, Katerina; Cepova, Jana; Dusejovska, Magdalena; Pavlickova, Lenka; Blaha, Vladimir; Rosolova, Hana; Nussbaumerova, Barbora; Cibulka, Roman; Vaverkova, Helena; Cibickova, Lubica; Krejsova, Zdenka; Rehouskova, Katerina; Malina, Pavel; Budikova, Milena; Palanova, Vaclava; Solcova, Lucie; Lubasova, Alena; Podzimkova, Helena; Bujdak, Juraj; Vesely, Jiri; Jordanova, Marta; Salek, Tomas; Urbanek, Robin; Zemek, Stanislav; Lacko, Jan; Halamkova, Hana; Machacova, Sona; Mala, Sarka; Cubova, Eva; Valoskova, Katerina; Burda, Lukas; Bendary, Ahmed; Daoud, Ihab; Emil, Sameh; Elbahry, Atef; Rafla, Samir; Sanad, Osama; Kazamel, Ghada; Ashraf, Mohamed; Sobhy, Mohamed; El-Hadidy, Amro; Shafy, Mohamed A.; Kamal, Saif; Bendary, Mohamed; Talviste, Grete; Angoulvant, Denis; Boccara, Franck; Cariou, Bertrand; Carreau, Valérie; Carrie, Alain; Charrieres, Sybil; Cottin, Yves; Di-Fillipo, Mathilde; Ducluzeau, Pierre H.; Dulong, Sonia; Durlach, Vincent; Farnier, Michel; Ferrari, Emile; Ferrieres, Dorota; Ferrieres, Jean; Gallo, Antonio; hankard, Regis; Inamo, Jocelyne; Lemale, Julie; Moulin, Philippe; Paillard, François; Peretti, Noel; Perrin, Agnès; Pradignac, Alain; Rabes, Jean P.; Rigalleau, Vincent; Sultan, Ariane; Schiele, François; Tounian, Patrick; Valero, René; Verges, Bruno; Yelnik, Cécile; Ziegler, Olivier; Haack, Ira A.; Schmidt, Nina; Dressel, Alexander; Klein, Isabel; Christmann, Jutta; Sonntag, Antonia; Stumpp, Christine; Boger, Diana; Biedermann, Dana; Usme, Monica M.N.; Beil, F. Ulrich; Klose, Gerald; König, Christel; Gouni-Berthold, Ioanna; Otte, Britta; Böll, Gereon; Kirschbaum, Anja; Merke, Jürgen; Scholl, Johannes; Segiet, Thomas; Gebauer, Marco; Predica, Florentina; Mayer, Manfred; Leistikow, Frank; Füllgraf-Horst, Sabine; Müller, Cornelius; Schüler, Melanie; Wiener, Judith; Hein, Konrad; Baumgartner, Peter; Kopf, Stefan; Busch, Reinhold; Schömig, Michael; Matthias, Stephan; Allendorf-Ostwald, Nicole; Fink, Bruno; Böhm, Dieter; Jäkel, Alexander; Koschker, Ann-Cathrin; Schweizer, Rüdiger; Vogt, Anja; Parhofer, Klaus; König, Wolfgang; Reinhard, Wibke; Bäßler, Andrea; Stadelmann, Alexander; Schrader, Volker; Katzmann, Julius; Tarr, Adrienne; Steinhagen-Thiessen, Elisabeth; Kassner, Ursula; Paulsen, Gerret; Homberger, Jürgen; Zemmrich, Claudia; Seeger, Wolfgang; Biolik, Kathrin; Deiss, Dorothee; Richter, Corinna; Pantchechnikova, Elina; Dorn, Elena; Schatz, Ulrike; Julius, Ulrich; Spens, Antje; Wiesner, Tobias; Scholl, Michael; Rizos, Christos V.; Sakkas, Nikolaos; Elisaf, Moses; Skoumas, Ioannis; Tziomalos, Konstantinos; Rallidis, Loukianos; Kotsis, Vasileios; Doumas, Michalis; Athyros, Vasileios; Skalidis, Emmanouil; Kolovou, Genovefa; Garoufi, Anastasia; Bilianou, Eleni; Koutagiar, Iosif; Agapakis, Dimitrios; Kiouri, Estela; Antza, Christina; Katsiki, Niki; Zacharis, Evangelos; Attilakos, Achilleas; Sfikas, George; Koumaras, Charalambos; Anagnostis, Panagiotis; Anastasiou, Georgia; Liamis, George; Koutsogianni, Amalia-Despoina; Karányi, Zsolt; Harangi, Mariann; Bajnok, László; Audikovszky, Mária; Márk, László; Benczúr, Béla; Reiber, István; Nagy, Gergely; Nagy, András; Reddy, Lakshmi L.; Shah, Swarup A.V.; Ponde, Chandrashekhar K.; Dalal, Jamshed J.; Sawhney, Jitendra P.S.; Verma, Ishwar C.; Altaey, Mays; Al-Jumaily, Khalid; Rasul, Dilshad; Abdalsahib, Ali F.; Jabbar, Amer A.; Al-ageedi, Mohanad; Agar, Ruth; Cohen, Hofit; Ellis, Avishay; Gavishv, Dov; Harats, Dror; Henkin, Yaacov; Knobler, Hila; Leavit, Leah; Leitersdorf, Eran; Rubinstein, Ardon; Schurr, Daniel; Shpitzen, Shoshi; Szalat, Auryan; Casula, Manuela; Zampoleri, Veronica; Gazzotti, Marta; Olmastroni, Elena; Sarzani, Riccardo; Ferri, Claudio; Repetti, Elena; Sabbà, Carlo; Bossi, Antonio Carlo; Borghi, Claudio; Muntoni, Sandro; Cipollone, Francesco; Purrello, Francesco; Pujia, Arturo; Passaro, Angelina; Marcucci, Rossella; Pecchioli, Valerio; Pisciotta, Livia; Mandraffino, Giuseppe; Pellegatta, Fabio; Mombelli, Giuliana; Branchi, Adriana; Fiorenza, Anna Maria; Pederiva, Cristina; Werba, Josè Pablo; Parati, Gianfranco; Carubbi, Francesca; Iughetti, Lorenzo; Iannuzzi, Arcangelo; Iannuzzo, Gabriella; Calabrò, Paolo; Averna, Maurizio; Biasucci, Giacomo; Zambon, Sabina; Roscini, Anna Rita; Trenti, Chiara; Arca, Marcello; Federici, Massimo; Del Ben, Maria; Bartuli, Andrea; Giaccari, Andrea; Pipolo, Antonio; Citroni, Nadia; Guardamagna, Ornella; Bonomo, Katia; Benso, Andrea; Biolo, Gianni; Maroni, Lorenzo; Lupi, Alessandro; Bonanni, Luca; Zenti, Maria Grazia; Matsuki, Kota; Hori, Mika; Ogura, Masatsune; Masuda, Daisaku; Kobayashi, Takuya; Nagahama, Kumiko; Al-Jarallah, Mohammed; Radovic, Mirjana; Lunegova, Olga; Bektasheva, Erkayim; Khodzhiboboev, Elyor; Erglis, Andrejs; Gilis, Dainus; Nesterovics, Georgijs; Saripo, Vita; Meiere, Ruta; Upena-RozeMicena, Arta; Terauda, Elizabete; Jambart, Selim; Khoury, Petra E.; Elbitar, Sandy; Ayoub, Carine; Ghaleb, Youmna; Aliosaitiene, Urte; Kutkiene, Sandra; Kasim, Noor A.M.; Nor, Noor S.M.; Ramli, Anis S.; Razak, Suraya A.; Al-Khateeb, Alyaa; Kadir, Siti H.S.A.; Muid, Suhaila A.; Rahman, Thuhairah A.; Kasim, Sazzli S.; Radzi, Ahmad B.M.; Ibrahim, Khairul S.; Razali, Salmi; Ismail, Zaliha; Ghani, Rohana A.; Hafidz, Muhammad I.A.; Chua, Ang L.; Rosli, Marshima M.; Annamalai, Muthukkaruppan; Teh, Lay K.; Razali, Rafezah; Chua, Yung A.; Rosman, Azhari; Sanusi, Abdul R.; Murad, Nor A.A.; Jamal, A. Rahman A.; Nazli, Sukma A.; Razman, Aimi Z.; Rosman, Norhidayah; Rahmat, Radzi; Hamzan, Nur S.; Azzopardi, C.; Mehta, Roopa; Martagon, Alexandro J.; Ramirez, Gabriela A.G.; Villa, Neftali E.A.; Vazquez, Arsenio V.; Elias-Lopez, Daniel; Retana, Gustavo G.; Rodriguez, Betsabel; Macías, Jose J.C.; Zazueta, Alejandro R.; Alvarado, Rocio M.; Portano, Julieta D.M.; Lopez, Humberto A.; Sauque-Reyna, Leobardo; Herrera, Laura G.G.; Mendia, Luis E.S.; Aguilar, Humberto Garcia; Cooremans, Elizabeth R.; Aparicio, Berenice P.; Zubieta, Victoria M.; Gonzalez, Perla A.C.; Ferreira-Hermosillo, Aldo; Portilla, Nacu C.; Dominguez, Guadalupe J.; Garcia, Alinna Y.R.; Cazares, Hector E.A.; Gonzalez, Jesus R.; Valencia, Carla V.M.; Padilla, Francisco G.; Prado, Ramon M.; De los Rios Ibarra, Manuel O.; Villicaña, Ruy D.A.; Rivera, Karina J.A.; Carrera, Ricardo A.; Alvarez, Jose A.; Martinez, Jose C.A.; de los Reyes Barrera Bustillo, Manuel; Vargas, Gonzalo C.; Chacon, Roberto C.; Andrade, Mario H.F.; Ortega, Ashanty F.; Alcala, Hector G.; de Leon, Laura E.G.; Guzman, Berenice G.; Garcia, Jose J.G.; Cuellar, Juan C.G.; Cruz, Jose R.G.; Garcia, Anell Hernandez; Almada, Jesus R.H.; Herrera, Ursulo J.; Sobrevilla, Fabiola L.; Rodriguez, Eduardo M.; Sibaja, Cristina M.; Rodriguez, Alma B.M.; Oyervides, Jose C.M.; Vazquez, Daniel I.P.; Rodriguez, Eduardo A.R.; Osorio, Ma L.R.; Saucedo, Juan R.; Tamayo, Margarita T.; Talavera, Luis A.V.; Arroyo, Luis E.V.; Carrillo, Eloy A.Z.; Isara, Alphonsus; Obaseki, Darlington E.; Al-Waili, Khalid; Al-Zadjali, Fahad; Al-Zakwani, Ibrahim; Al-Kindi, Mohammed; Al-Mukhaini, Suad; Al-Barwani, Hamida; Rana, Asim; Shah, Lahore S.U.; Starostecka, Ewa; Konopka, Agnieszka; Lewek, Joanna; Bartłomiejczyk, Marcin; Gąsior, Mariusz; Dyrbuś, Krzysztof; Jóźwiak, Jacek; Gruchała, Marcin; Pajkowski, Marcin; Romanowska-Kocejko, Marzena; Żarczyńska-Buchowiecka, Marta; Chmara, Magdalena; Wasąg, Bartosz; Parczewska, Aleksandra; Gilis-Malinowska, Natasza; Borowiec-Wolna, Justyna; Stróżyk, Aneta; Woś, Marlena; Michalska-Grzonkowska, Aleksandra; Medeiros, Ana M.; Alves, Ana C.; Silva, Francisco; Lobarinhas, Goreti; Palma, Isabel; de Moura, Jose P.; Rico, Miguel T.; Rato, Quitéria; Pais, Patrícia; Correia, Susana; Moldovan, Oana; Virtuoso, Maria J.; Salgado, Jose M.; Colaço, Ines; Dumitrescu, Andreea; Lengher, Calin; Mosteoru, Svetlana; Meshkov, Alexey; Ershova, Alexandra; Rozkova, Tatiana; Korneva, Victoria; Yu, Kuznetsova T.; Zafiraki, Vitaliy; Voevoda, Mikhail; Gurevich, Victor; Duplyakov, Dmitry; Ragino, Yulia; Safarova, Maya; Shaposhnik, Igor; Alkaf, Fahmi; Khudari, Alia; Rwaili, Nawal; Al-Allaf, Faisal; Alghamdi, Mohammad; Batais, Mohammed A.; Almigbal, Turky H.; Kinsara, Abdulhalim; AlQudaimi, Ashraf H.A.; Awan, Zuhier; Elamin, Omer A.; Altaradi, Hani; Rajkovic, Natasa; Popovic, Ljiljana; Singh, Sandra; Stosic, Ljubica; Rasulic, Iva; Lalic, Nebojsa M.; Lam, Carolyn; Le, Tan J.; Siang, Eric L.T.; Dissanayake, Sanjaya; I-Shing, Justin T.; Shyong, Tai E.; Jin, Terrance C.S.; Balinth, Karin; Buganova, Ingrid; Fabryova, Lubomira; Kadurova, Michaela; Klabnik, Alexander; Kozárová, Miriam; Sirotiakova, Jana; Battelino, Tadej; Kovac, Jernej; Mlinaric, Matej; Sustar, Ursa; Podkrajsek, Katarina T.; Fras, Zlatko; Jug, Borut; Cevc, Matija; Pilcher, Gillian J.; Blom, D.J.; Wolmarans, K.H.; Brice, B.C.; Muñiz-Grijalvo, Ovidio; Díaz-Díaz, Jose L.; de Isla, Leopoldo P.; Fuentes, Francisco; Badimon, Lina; Martin, François; Lux, Angela; Chang, Nien-Tzu; Ganokroj, Poranee; Akbulut, Mehmet; Alici, Gökhan; Bayram, Fahri; Can, Levent H.; Celik, Ahmet; Ceyhan, Ceyhun; Coskun, Fatma Y.; Demir, Mesut; Demircan, Sabri; Dogan, Volkan; Durakoglugil, Emre; Dural, Ibrahim E.; Gedikli, Omer; Hacioglu, Aysa; Ildizli, Muge; Kilic, Salih; Kirilmaz, Bahadir; Kutlu, Merih; Oguz, Aytekin; Ozdogan, Oner; Onrat, Ersel; Ozer, Savas; Sabuncu, Tevfik; Sahin, Tayfun; Sivri, Fatih; Sonmez, Alper; Temizhan, Ahmet; Topcu, Selim; Tuncez, Abdullah; Vural, Mirac; Yenercag, Mustafa; Yesilbursa, Dilek; Yigit, Zerrin; Yildirim, Aytul B.; Yildirir, Aylin; Yilmaz, Mehmet B.; Atallah, Bassam; Traina, Mahmoud; Sabbour, Hani; Hay, Dana A.; Luqman, Neama; Elfatih, Abubaker; Abdulrasheed, Arshad; Kwok, See; Oca, Nicolas D.; Reyes, Ximena; Alieva, Rano B.; Kurbanov, Ravshanbek D.; Hoshimov, Shavkat U.; Nizamov, Ulugbek I.; Ziyaeva, Adolat V.; Abdullaeva, Guzal J.; Do, Doan L.; Nguyen, Mai N.T.; Kim, Ngoc T.; Le, Thanh T.; Le, Hong A.; Tokgozoglu, Lale; Catapano, Alberico L.; Ray, Kausik K.Vallejo-Vaz, Antonio J.; Stevens, Christophe A. T.; Lyons, Alexander R. M.; Dharmayat, Kanika I.; Freiberger, Tomas; Hovingh, G. Kees; Mata, Pedro; Raal, Frederick J.; Santos, Raul D.; Soran, Handrean; Watts, Gerald F.; Abifadel, Marianne; Aguilar-Salinas, Carlos A.; Alhabib, Khalid F.; Alkhnifsawi, Mutaz; Almahmeed, Wael; Alnouri, Fahad; Alonso, Rodrigo; Al-Rasadi, Khalid; Al-Sarraf, Ahmad; Al-Sayed, Nasreen; Araujo, Francisco; Ashavaid, Tester F.; Banach, Maciej; Béliard, Sophie; Benn, Marianne; Binder, Christoph J.; Bogsrud, Martin P.; Bourbon, Mafalda; Chlebus, Krzysztof; Corral, Pablo; Davletov, Kairat; Descamps, Olivier S.; Durst, Ronen; Ezhov, Marat; Gaita, Dan; Genest, Jacques; Groselj, Urh; Harada-Shiba, Mariko; Holven, Kirsten B.; Kayikcioglu, Meral; Khovidhunkit, Weerapan; Lalic, Katarina; Latkovskis, Gustavs; Laufs, Ulrich; Liberopoulos, Evangelos; Lima-Martinez, Marcos M.; Lin, Jie; Maher, Vincent; Marais, A. David; März, Winfried; Mirrakhimov, Erkin; Miserez, André R.; Mitchenko, Olena; Nawawi, Hapizah; Nordestgaard, Børge G.; Panayiotou, Andrie G.; Paragh, György; Petrulioniene, Zaneta; Pojskic, Belma; Postadzhiyan, Arman; Raslova, Katarina; Reda, Ashraf; Reiner, Željko; Sadiq, Fouzia; Sadoh, Wilson Ehidiamen; Schunkert, Heribert; Shek, Aleksandr B.; Stoll, Mario; Stroes, Erik; Su, Ta-Chen; Subramaniam, Tavintharan; Susekov, Andrey V.; Tilney, Myra; Tomlinson, Brian; Truong, Thanh Huong; Tselepis, Alexandros D.; Tybjærg-Hansen, Anne; Vázquez Cárdenas, Alejandra; Viigimaa, Margus; Wang, Luya; Yamashita, Shizuya; Kastelein, John J. P.; Bruckert, Eric; Vohnout, Branislav; Schreier, Laura; Pang, Jing; Ebenbichler, Christoph; Dieplinger, Hans; Innerhofer, Reinhold; Winhofer-Stöckl, Yvonne; Greber-Platzer, Susanne; Krychtiuk, Konstantin; Speidl, Walter; Toplak, Hermann; Widhalm, Kurt; Stulnig, Thomas; Huber, Kurt; Höllerl, Florian; Rega-Kaun, Gersina; Kleemann, Lucas; Mäser, Martin; Scholl-Bürgi, Sabine; Säly, Christoph; Mayer, Florian J.; Sablon, Gaelle; Tarantino, Eric; Nzeyimana, Charlotte; Pojskic, Lamija; Sisic, Ibrahim; Nalbantic, Azra D.; Jannes, Cinthia E.; Pereira, Alexandre C.; Krieger, Jose E.; Petrov, Ivo; Goudev, Assen; Nikolov, Fedya; Tisheva, Snejana; Yotov, Yoto; Tzvetkov, Ivajlo; Baass, Alexis; Bergeron, Jean; Bernard, Sophie; Brisson, Diane; Brunham, Liam R.; Cermakova, Lubomira; Couture, Patrick; Francis, Gordon A.; Gaudet, Daniel; Hegele, Robert A.; Khoury, Etienne; Mancini, G. B. John; Mccrindle, Brian W.; Paquette, Martine; Ruel, Isabelle; Cuevas, Ada; Asenjo, Sylvia; Wang, Xumin; Meng, Kang; Song, Xiantao; Yong, Qiang; Jiang, Tao; Liu, Ziyou; Duan, Yanyu; Hong, Jing; Ye, Pucong; Chen, Yan; Qi, Jianguang; Liu, Zesen; Li, Yuntao; Zhang, Chaoyi; Peng, Jie; Yang, Ya; Yu, Wei; Wang, Qian; Yuan, Hui; Cheng, Shitong; Jiang, Long; Chong, Mei; Jiao, Jian; Wu, Yue; Wen, Wenhui; Xu, Liyuan; Zhang, Ruiying; Qu, Yichen; He, Jianxun; Fan, Xuesong; Wang, Zhenjia; Chow, Elaine; Pećin, Ivan; Perica, Dražen; Symeonides, Phivos; Vrablik, Michal; Ceska, Richard; Soska, Vladimir; Tichy, Lukas; Adamkova, Vera; Franekova, Jana; Cifkova, Renata; Kraml, Pavel; Vonaskova, Katerina; Cepova, Jana; Dusejovska, Magdalena; Pavlickova, Lenka; Blaha, Vladimir; Rosolova, Hana; Nussbaumerova, Barbora; Cibulka, Roman; Vaverkova, Helena; Cibickova, Lubica; Krejsova, Zdenka; Rehouskova, Katerina; Malina, Pavel; Budikova, Milena; Palanova, Vaclava; Solcova, Lucie; Lubasova, Alena; Podzimkova, Helena; Bujdak, Juraj; Vesely, Jiri; Jordanova, Marta; Salek, Tomas; Urbanek, Robin; Zemek, Stanislav; Lacko, Jan; Halamkova, Hana; Machacova, Sona; Mala, Sarka; Cubova, Eva; Valoskova, Katerina; Burda, Lukas; Bendary, Ahmed; Daoud, Ihab; Emil, Sameh; Elbahry, Atef; Rafla, Samir; Sanad, Osama; Kazamel, Ghada; Ashraf, Mohamed; Sobhy, Mohamed; El-Hadidy, Amro; Shafy, Mohamed A.; Kamal, Saif; Bendary, Mohamed; Talviste, Grete; Angoulvant, Denis; Boccara, Franck; Cariou, Bertrand; Carreau, Valérie; Carrie, Alain; Charrieres, Sybil; Cottin, Yves; Di-Fillipo, Mathilde; Ducluzeau, Pierre H.; Dulong, Sonia; Durlach, Vincent; Farnier, Michel; Ferrari, Emile; Ferrieres, Dorota; Ferrieres, Jean; Gallo, Antonio; Hankard, Regis; Inamo, Jocelyne; Lemale, Julie; Moulin, Philippe; Paillard, François; Peretti, Noel; Perrin, Agnès; Pradignac, Alain; Rabes, Jean P.; Rigalleau, Vincent; Sultan, Ariane; Schiele, François; Tounian, Patrick; Valero, René; Verges, Bruno; Yelnik, Cécile; Ziegler, Olivier; Haack, Ira A.; Schmidt, Nina; Dressel, Alexander; Klein, Isabel; Christmann, Jutta; Sonntag, Antonia; Stumpp, Christine; Boger, Diana; Biedermann, Dana; Usme, Monica M. N.; Beil, F. Ulrich; Klose, Gerald; König, Christel; Gouni-Berthold, Ioanna; Otte, Britta; Böll, Gereon; Kirschbaum, Anja; Merke, Jürgen; Scholl, Johannes; Segiet, Thomas; Gebauer, Marco; Predica, Florentina; Mayer, Manfred; Leistikow, Frank; Füllgraf-Horst, Sabine; Müller, Cornelius; Schüler, Melanie; Wiener, Judith; Hein, Konrad; Baumgartner, Peter; Kopf, Stefan; Busch, Reinhold; Schömig, Michael; Matthias, Stephan; Allendorf-Ostwald, Nicole; Fink, Bruno; Böhm, Dieter; Jäkel, Alexander; Koschker, Ann-Cathrin; Schweizer, Rüdiger; Vogt, Anja; Parhofer, Klaus; König, Wolfgang; Reinhard, Wibke; Bäßler, Andrea; Stadelmann, Alexander; Schrader, Volker; Katzmann, Julius; Tarr, Adrienne; Steinhagen-Thiessen, Elisabeth; Kassner, Ursula; Paulsen, Gerret; Homberger, Jürgen; Zemmrich, Claudia; Seeger, Wolfgang; Biolik, Kathrin; Deiss, Dorothee; Richter, Corinna; Pantchechnikova, Elina; Dorn, Elena; Schatz, Ulrike; Julius, Ulrich; Spens, Antje; Wiesner, Tobias; Scholl, Michael; Rizos, Christos V.; Sakkas, Nikolaos; Elisaf, Moses; Skoumas, Ioannis; Tziomalos, Konstantinos; Rallidis, Loukianos; Kotsis, Vasileios; Doumas, Michalis; Athyros, Vasileios; Skalidis, Emmanouil; Kolovou, Genovefa; Garoufi, Anastasi

Association of BMI, lipid-lowering medication, and age with prevalence of type 2 diabetes in adults with heterozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia: a worldwide cross-sectional study

Background: Statins are the cornerstone treatment for patients with heterozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia but research suggests it could increase the risk of type 2 diabetes in the general population. A low prevalence of type 2 diabetes was reported in some familial hypercholesterolaemia cohorts, raising the question of whether these patients are protected against type 2 diabetes. Obesity is a well known risk factor for the development of type 2 diabetes. We aimed to investigate the associations of known key determinants of type 2 diabetes with its prevalence in people with heterozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia. Methods: This worldwide cross-sectional study used individual-level data from the EAS FHSC registry and included adults older than 18 years with a clinical or genetic diagnosis of heterozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia who had data available on age, BMI, and diabetes status. Those with known or suspected homozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia and type 1 diabetes were excluded. The main outcome was prevalence of type 2 diabetes overall and by WHO region, and in relation to obesity (BMI ≥30·0 kg/m2) and lipid-lowering medication as predictors. The study population was divided into 12 risk categories based on age (tertiles), obesity, and receiving statins, and the risk of type 2 diabetes was investigated using logistic regression. Findings: Among 46 683 adults with individual-level data in the FHSC registry, 24 784 with heterozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia were included in the analysis from 44 countries. 19 818 (80%) had a genetically confirmed diagnosis of heterozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia. Type 2 diabetes prevalence in the total population was 5·7% (1415 of 24 784), with 4·1% (817 of 19 818) in the genetically diagnosed cohort. Higher prevalence of type 2 diabetes was observed in the Eastern Mediterranean (58 [29·9%] of 194), South-East Asia and Western Pacific (214 [12·0%] of 1785), and the Americas (166 [8·5%] of 1955) than in Europe (excluding the Netherlands; 527 [8·0%] of 6579). Advancing age, a higher BMI category (obesity and overweight), and use of lipid-lowering medication were associated with a higher risk of type 2 diabetes, independent of sex and LDL cholesterol. Among the 12 risk categories, the probability of developing type 2 diabetes was higher in people in the highest risk category (aged 55-98 years, with obesity, and receiving statins; OR 74·42 [95% CI 47·04-117·73]) than in those in the lowest risk category (aged 18-38 years, without obesity, and not receiving statins). Those who did not have obesity, even if they were in the upper age tertile and receiving statins, had lower risk of type 2 diabetes (OR 24·42 [15·57-38·31]). The corresponding results in the genetically diagnosed cohort were OR 65·04 (40·67-104·02) for those with obesity in the highest risk category and OR 20·07 (12·73-31·65) for those without obesity. Interpretation: Adults with heterozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia in most WHO regions have a higher type 2 diabetes prevalence than in Europe. Obesity markedly increases the risk of diabetes associated with age and use of statins in these patients. Our results suggest that heterozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia does not protect against type 2 diabetes, hence managing obesity is essential to reduce type 2 diabetes in this patient population. Funding: Pfizer, Amgen, MSD, Sanofi-Aventis, Daiichi-Sankyo, and Regeneron

Ticagrelor in patients with diabetes and stable coronary artery disease with a history of previous percutaneous coronary intervention (THEMIS-PCI) : a phase 3, placebo-controlled, randomised trial

Background: Patients with stable coronary artery disease and diabetes with previous percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), particularly those with previous stenting, are at high risk of ischaemic events. These patients are generally treated with aspirin. In this trial, we aimed to investigate if these patients would benefit from treatment with aspirin plus ticagrelor. Methods: The Effect of Ticagrelor on Health Outcomes in diabEtes Mellitus patients Intervention Study (THEMIS) was a phase 3 randomised, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial, done in 1315 sites in 42 countries. Patients were eligible if 50 years or older, with type 2 diabetes, receiving anti-hyperglycaemic drugs for at least 6 months, with stable coronary artery disease, and one of three other mutually non-exclusive criteria: a history of previous PCI or of coronary artery bypass grafting, or documentation of angiographic stenosis of 50% or more in at least one coronary artery. Eligible patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to either ticagrelor or placebo, by use of an interactive voice-response or web-response system. The THEMIS-PCI trial comprised a prespecified subgroup of patients with previous PCI. The primary efficacy outcome was a composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke (measured in the intention-to-treat population). Findings: Between Feb 17, 2014, and May 24, 2016, 11 154 patients (58% of the overall THEMIS trial) with a history of previous PCI were enrolled in the THEMIS-PCI trial. Median follow-up was 3·3 years (IQR 2·8–3·8). In the previous PCI group, fewer patients receiving ticagrelor had a primary efficacy outcome event than in the placebo group (404 [7·3%] of 5558 vs 480 [8·6%] of 5596; HR 0·85 [95% CI 0·74–0·97], p=0·013). The same effect was not observed in patients without PCI (p=0·76, p interaction=0·16). The proportion of patients with cardiovascular death was similar in both treatment groups (174 [3·1%] with ticagrelor vs 183 (3·3%) with placebo; HR 0·96 [95% CI 0·78–1·18], p=0·68), as well as all-cause death (282 [5·1%] vs 323 [5·8%]; 0·88 [0·75–1·03], p=0·11). TIMI major bleeding occurred in 111 (2·0%) of 5536 patients receiving ticagrelor and 62 (1·1%) of 5564 patients receiving placebo (HR 2·03 [95% CI 1·48–2·76], p<0·0001), and fatal bleeding in 6 (0·1%) of 5536 patients with ticagrelor and 6 (0·1%) of 5564 with placebo (1·13 [0·36–3·50], p=0·83). Intracranial haemorrhage occurred in 33 (0·6%) and 31 (0·6%) patients (1·21 [0·74–1·97], p=0·45). Ticagrelor improved net clinical benefit: 519/5558 (9·3%) versus 617/5596 (11·0%), HR=0·85, 95% CI 0·75–0·95, p=0·005, in contrast to patients without PCI where it did not, p interaction=0·012. Benefit was present irrespective of time from most recent PCI. Interpretation: In patients with diabetes, stable coronary artery disease, and previous PCI, ticagrelor added to aspirin reduced cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and stroke, although with increased major bleeding. In that large, easily identified population, ticagrelor provided a favourable net clinical benefit (more than in patients without history of PCI). This effect shows that long-term therapy with ticagrelor in addition to aspirin should be considered in patients with diabetes and a history of PCI who have tolerated antiplatelet therapy, have high ischaemic risk, and low bleeding risk

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundFuture trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.MethodsUsing forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.FindingsIn the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]).InterpretationGlobally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.</p