Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Poly(Glycerol Adipate-co-ω-Pentadecalactone) Spray-Dried Microparticles as Sustained Release Carriers for Pulmonary Delivery

Purpose The aim of this work was to optimize biodegradable polyester poly(glycerol adipate-co-ω-pentadecalactone), PGA-co-PDL, microparticles as sustained release (SR) carriers for pulmonary drug delivery. Methods Microparticles were produced by spray drying directly from double emulsion with and without dispersibility enhancers ( L -arginine and L -leucine) (0.5–1.5%w/w) using sodium fluorescein (SF) as a model hydrophilic drug. Results Spray-dried microparticles without dispersibility enhancers exhibited aggregated powders leading to low fine particle fraction (%FPF) (28.79 ± 3.24), fine particle dose (FPD) (14.42 ± 1.57 μg), with a mass median aerodynamic diameter (MMAD) 2.86 ± 0.24 μm. However, L -leucine was significantly superior in enhancing the aerosolization performance ( L- arginine:%FPF 27.61 ± 4.49–26.57 ± 1.85; FPD 12.40 ± 0.99–19.54 ± 0.16 μg and MMAD 2.18 ± 0.35–2.98 ± 0.25 μm, L -leucine:%FPF 36.90 ± 3.6–43.38 ± 5.6; FPD 18.66 ± 2.90–21.58 ± 2.46 μg and MMAD 2.55 ± 0.03–3.68 ± 0.12 μm). Incorporating L -leucine (1.5%w/w) reduced the burst release (24.04 ± 3.87%) of SF compared to unmodified formulations (41.87 ± 2.46%), with both undergoing a square root of time (Higuchi’s pattern) dependent release. Comparing the toxicity profiles of PGA-co-PDL with L -leucine (1.5%w/w) (5 mg/ml) and poly(lactide-co-glycolide), (5 mg/ml) spray-dried microparticles in human bronchial epithelial 16HBE14o- cell lines, resulted in cell viability of 85.57 ± 5.44 and 60.66 ± 6.75%, respectively, after 72 h treatment. Conclusion The above data suggest that PGA-co-PDL may be a useful polymer for preparing SR microparticle carriers, together with dispersibility enhancers, for pulmonary delivery

Bacterial Gut Symbionts Contribute to Seed Digestion in an Omnivorous Beetle

Obligate bacterial symbionts alter the diets of host animals in numerous ways, but the ecological roles of facultative bacterial residents that colonize insect guts remain unclear. Carabid beetles are a common group of beneficial insects appreciated for their ability to consume insect prey and seeds, but the contributions of microbes to diet diversification in this and similar groups of facultative granivores are largely unknown.Using 16S rRNA gene clone libraries and terminal restriction fragment (tRF) length polymorphism analyses of these genes, we examined the bacterial communities within the guts of facultatively granivorous, adult Harpalus pensylvanicus (Carabidae), fed one of five dietary treatments: 1) an untreated Field population, 2) Seeds with antibiotics (seeds were from Chenopodium album), 3) Seeds without antibiotics, 4) Prey with antibiotics (prey were Acheta domesticus eggs), and 5) Prey without antibiotics. The number of seeds and prey consumed by each beetle were recorded following treatment. Harpalus pensylvanicus possessed a fairly simple gut community of approximately 3-4 bacterial operational taxonomic units (OTU) per beetle that were affiliated with the Gammaproteobacteria, Bacilli, Alphaproteobacteria, and Mollicutes. Bacterial communities of the host varied among the diet and antibiotic treatments. The field population and beetles fed seeds without antibiotics had the closest matching bacterial communities, and the communities in the beetles fed antibiotics were more closely related to each other than to those of the beetles that did not receive antibiotics. Antibiotics reduced and altered the bacterial communities found in the beetle guts. Moreover, beetles fed antibiotics ate fewer seeds, and those beetles that harbored the bacterium Enterococcus faecalis consumed more seeds on average than those lacking this symbiont.We conclude that the relationships between the bacterium E. faecalis and this factultative granivore's ability to consume seeds merit further investigation, and that facultative associations with symbiotic bacteria have important implications for the nutritional ecology of their hosts

Activity and Interactions of Liposomal Antibiotics in Presence of Polyanions and Sputum of Patients with Cystic Fibrosis

BACKGROUND:To compare the effectiveness of liposomal tobramycin or polymyxin B against Pseudomonas aeruginosa in the Cystic Fibrosis (CF) sputum and its inhibition by common polyanionic components such as DNA, F-actin, lipopolysaccharides (LPS), and lipoteichoic acid (LTA). METHODOLOGY:Liposomal formulations were prepared from a mixture of 1,2-Dimyristoyl-sn-Glycero-3-Phosphocholine (DMPC) or 1,2-Dipalmitoyl-sn-Glycero-3-Phosphocholine (DPPC) and Cholesterol (Chol), respectively. Stability of the formulations in different biological milieus and antibacterial activities compared to conventional forms in the presence of the aforementioned inhibitory factors or CF sputum were evaluated. RESULTS:The formulations were stable in all conditions tested with no significant differences compared to the controls. Inhibition of antibiotic formulations by DNA/F-actin and LPS/LTA was concentration dependent. DNA/F-actin (125 to 1000 mg/L) and LPS/LTA (1 to 1000 mg/L) inhibited conventional tobramycin bioactivity, whereas, liposome-entrapped tobramycin was inhibited at higher concentrations--DNA/F-actin (500 to 1000 mg/L) and LPS/LTA (100 to 1000 mg/L). Neither polymyxin B formulation was inactivated by DNA/F-actin, but LPS/LTA (1 to 1000 mg/L) inhibited the drug in conventional form completely and higher concentrations of the inhibitors (100 to 1000 mg/L) was required to inhibit the liposome-entrapped polymyxin B. Co-incubation with inhibitory factors (1000 mg/L) increased conventional (16-fold) and liposomal (4-fold) tobramycin minimum bactericidal concentrations (MBCs), while both polymyxin B formulations were inhibited 64-fold. CONCLUSIONS:Liposome-entrapment reduced antibiotic inhibition up to 100-fold and the CFU of endogenous P. aeruginosa in sputum by 4-fold compared to the conventional antibiotic, suggesting their potential applications in CF lung infections

Exceptional Diversity, Non-Random Distribution, and Rapid Evolution of Retroelements in the B73 Maize Genome

Recent comprehensive sequence analysis of the maize genome now permits detailed discovery and description of all transposable elements (TEs) in this complex nuclear environment. Reiteratively optimized structural and homology criteria were used in the computer-assisted search for retroelements, TEs that transpose by reverse transcription of an RNA intermediate, with the final results verified by manual inspection. Retroelements were found to occupy the majority (>75%) of the nuclear genome in maize inbred B73. Unprecedented genetic diversity was discovered in the long terminal repeat (LTR) retrotransposon class of retroelements, with >400 families (>350 newly discovered) contributing >31,000 intact elements. The two other classes of retroelements, SINEs (four families) and LINEs (at least 30 families), were observed to contribute 1,991 and ∼35,000 copies, respectively, or a combined ∼1% of the B73 nuclear genome. With regard to fully intact elements, median copy numbers for all retroelement families in maize was 2 because >250 LTR retrotransposon families contained only one or two intact members that could be detected in the B73 draft sequence. The majority, perhaps all, of the investigated retroelement families exhibited non-random dispersal across the maize genome, with LINEs, SINEs, and many low-copy-number LTR retrotransposons exhibiting a bias for accumulation in gene-rich regions. In contrast, most (but not all) medium- and high-copy-number LTR retrotransposons were found to preferentially accumulate in gene-poor regions like pericentromeric heterochromatin, while a few high-copy-number families exhibited the opposite bias. Regions of the genome with the highest LTR retrotransposon density contained the lowest LTR retrotransposon diversity. These results indicate that the maize genome provides a great number of different niches for the survival and procreation of a great variety of retroelements that have evolved to differentially occupy and exploit this genomic diversity

Incidence and Tracking of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in a Major Produce Production Region in California

Fresh vegetables have become associated with outbreaks caused by Escherichia coli O157:H7 (EcO157). Between 1995–2006, 22 produce outbreaks were documented in the United States, with nearly half traced to lettuce or spinach grown in California. Outbreaks between 2002 and 2006 induced investigations of possible sources of pre-harvest contamination on implicated farms in the Salinas and San Juan valleys of California, and a survey of the Salinas watershed. EcO157 was isolated at least once from 15 of 22 different watershed sites over a 19 month period. The incidence of EcO157 increased significantly when heavy rain caused an increased flow rate in the rivers. Approximately 1000 EcO157 isolates obtained from cultures of>100 individual samples were typed using Multi-Locus Variable-number-tandem-repeat Analysis (MLVA) to assist in identifying potential fate and transport of EcO157 in this region. A subset of these environmental isolates were typed by Pulse Field Gel Electrophoresis (PFGE) in order to make comparisons with human clinical isolates associated with outbreak and sporadic illness. Recurrence of identical and closely related EcO157 strains from specific locations in the Salinas and San Juan valleys suggests that transport of the pathogen is usually restricted. In a preliminary study, EcO157 was detected in water at multiple locations in a low-flow creek only within 135 meters of a point source. However, possible transport up to 32 km was detected during periods of higher water flow associated with flooding. During the 2006 baby spinach outbreak investigation, transport was also detected where water was unlikely to be involved. These results indicate that contamination of the environment is a dynamic process involving multiple sources and methods of transport. Intensive studies of the sources, incidence, fate and transport of EcO157 near produce production are required to determine the mechanisms of pre-harvest contamination and potential risks for human illness

Whole-chromosome hitchhiking driven by a male-killing endosymbiont.

Neo-sex chromosomes are found in many taxa, but the forces driving their emergence and spread are poorly understood. The female-specific neo-W chromosome of the African monarch (or queen) butterfly Danaus chrysippus presents an intriguing case study because it is restricted to a single 'contact zone' population, involves a putative colour patterning supergene, and co-occurs with infection by the male-killing endosymbiont Spiroplasma. We investigated the origin and evolution of this system using whole genome sequencing. We first identify the 'BC supergene', a broad region of suppressed recombination across nearly half a chromosome, which links two colour patterning loci. Association analysis suggests that the genes yellow and arrow in this region control the forewing colour pattern differences between D. chrysippus subspecies. We then show that the same chromosome has recently formed a neo-W that has spread through the contact zone within approximately 2,200 years. We also assembled the genome of the male-killing Spiroplasma, and find that it shows perfect genealogical congruence with the neo-W, suggesting that the neo-W has hitchhiked to high frequency as the male-killer has spread through the population. The complete absence of female crossing-over in the Lepidoptera causes whole-chromosome hitchhiking of a single neo-W haplotype, carrying a single allele of the BC supergene and dragging multiple non-synonymous mutations to high frequency. This has created a population of infected females that all carry the same recessive colour patterning allele, making the phenotypes of each successive generation highly dependent on uninfected male immigrants. Our findings show how hitchhiking can occur between the physically unlinked genomes of host and endosymbiont, with dramatic consequences

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

Background Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980–2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. Methods We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package—a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Findings Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87–2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91–1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79–3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63–2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8–39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. Interpretation Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact

Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders during 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Comparable data on the global and country-specific burden of neurological disorders and their trends are crucial for health-care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study provides such information but does not routinely aggregate results that are of interest to clinicians specialising in neurological conditions. In this systematic analysis, we quantified the global disease burden due to neurological disorders in 2015 and its relationship with country development level. Methods We estimated global and country-specific prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) for various neurological disorders that in the GBD classification have been previously spread across multiple disease groupings. The more inclusive grouping of neurological disorders included stroke, meningitis, encephalitis, tetanus, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, epilepsy, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron disease, migraine, tension-type headache, medication overuse headache, brain and nervous system cancers, and a residual category of other neurological disorders. We also analysed results based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a compound measure of income per capita, education, and fertility, to identify patterns associated with development and how countries fare against expected outcomes relative to their level of development. Findings Neurological disorders ranked as the leading cause group of DALYs in 2015 (250·7 [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 229·1 to 274·7] million, comprising 10·2% of global DALYs) and the second-leading cause group of deaths (9·4 [9·1 to 9·7] million], comprising 16·8% of global deaths). The most prevalent neurological disorders were tension-type headache (1505·9 [UI 1337·3 to 1681·6 million cases]), migraine (958·8 [872·1 to 1055·6] million), medication overuse headache (58·5 [50·8 to 67·4 million]), and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (46·0 [40·2 to 52·7 million]). Between 1990 and 2015, the number of deaths from neurological disorders increased by 36·7%, and the number of DALYs by 7·4%. These increases occurred despite decreases in age-standardised rates of death and DALYs of 26·1% and 29·7%, respectively; stroke and communicable neurological disorders were responsible for most of these decreases. Communicable neurological disorders were the largest cause of DALYs in countries with low SDI. Stroke rates were highest at middle levels of SDI and lowest at the highest SDI. Most of the changes in DALY rates of neurological disorders with development were driven by changes in YLLs. Interpretation Neurological disorders are an important cause of disability and death worldwide. Globally, the burden of neurological disorders has increased substantially over the past 25 years because of expanding population numbers and ageing, despite substantial decreases in mortality rates from stroke and communicable neurological disorders. The number of patients who will need care by clinicians with expertise in neurological conditions will continue to grow in coming decades. Policy makers and health-care providers should be aware of these trends to provide adequate services

Alzheimer disease models and human neuropathology: similarities and differences

Animal models aim to replicate the symptoms, the lesions or the cause(s) of Alzheimer disease. Numerous mouse transgenic lines have now succeeded in partially reproducing its lesions: the extracellular deposits of Aβ peptide and the intracellular accumulation of tau protein. Mutated human APP transgenes result in the deposition of Aβ peptide, similar but not identical to the Aβ peptide of human senile plaque. Amyloid angiopathy is common. Besides the deposition of Aβ, axon dystrophy and alteration of dendrites have been observed. All of the mutations cause an increase in Aβ 42 levels, except for the Arctic mutation, which alters the Aβ sequence itself. Overexpressing wild-type APP alone (as in the murine models of human trisomy 21) causes no Aβ deposition in most mouse lines. Doubly (APP × mutated PS1) transgenic mice develop the lesions earlier. Transgenic mice in which BACE1 has been knocked out or overexpressed have been produced, as well as lines with altered expression of neprilysin, the main degrading enzyme of Aβ. The APP transgenic mice have raised new questions concerning the mechanisms of neuronal loss, the accumulation of Aβ in the cell body of the neurons, inflammation and gliosis, and the dendritic alterations. They have allowed some insight to be gained into the kinetics of the changes. The connection between the symptoms, the lesions and the increase in Aβ oligomers has been found to be difficult to unravel. Neurofibrillary tangles are only found in mouse lines that overexpress mutated tau or human tau on a murine tau −/− background. A triply transgenic model (mutated APP, PS1 and tau) recapitulates the alterations seen in AD but its physiological relevance may be discussed. A number of modulators of Aβ or of tau accumulation have been tested. A transgenic model may be analyzed at three levels at least (symptoms, lesions, cause of the disease), and a reading key is proposed to summarize this analysis