Analysis of uncertainty in health care cost-effectiveness studies: an introduction to statistical issues and methods

Cost-effectiveness analysis is now an integral part of health technology assessment and addresses the question of whether a new treatment or other health care program offers good value for money. In this paper we introduce the basic framework for decision making with cost-effectiveness data and then review recent developments in statistical methods for analysis of uncertainty when cost-effectiveness estimates are based on observed data from a clinical trial. Although much research has focused on methods for calculating confidence intervals for cost-effectiveness ratios using bootstrapping or Fieller’s method, these calculations can be problematic with a ratio-based statistic where numerator and=or denominator can be zero. We advocate plotting the joint density of cost and effect differences, together with cumulative density plots known as cost-effectiveness acceptability curves (CEACs) to summarize the overall value-for-money of interventions. We also outline the net-benefit formulation of the cost-effectiveness problem and show that it has particular advantages over the standard incremental cost-effectiveness ratio formulation

Influence of Microbial Biofilms on the Preservation of Primary Soft Tissue in Fossil and Extant Archosaurs

Background: Mineralized and permineralized bone is the most common form of fossilization in the vertebrate record. Preservation of gross soft tissues is extremely rare, but recent studies have suggested that primary soft tissues and biomolecules are more commonly preserved within preserved bones than had been presumed. Some of these claims have been challenged, with presentation of evidence suggesting that some of the structures are microbial artifacts, not primary soft tissues. The identification of biomolecules in fossil vertebrate extracts from a specimen of Brachylophosaurus canadensis has shown the interpretation of preserved organic remains as microbial biofilm to be highly unlikely. These discussions also propose a variety of potential mechanisms that would permit the preservation of soft-tissues in vertebrate fossils over geologic time. Methodology/Principal Findings: This study experimentally examines the role of microbial biofilms in soft-tissue preservation in vertebrate fossils by quantitatively establishing the growth and morphology of biofilms on extant archosaur bone. These results are microscopically and morphologically compared with soft-tissue extracts from vertebrate fossils from the Hell Creek Formation of southeastern Montana (Latest Maastrichtian) in order to investigate the potential role of microbial biofilms on the preservation of fossil bone and bound organic matter in a variety of taphonomic settings. Base

Involvement of microbial mats in early fossilization by decay delay and formation of impressions and replicas of vertebrates and invertebrates

Microbial mats have been hypothesized to improve the persistence and the preservation of organic remains during fossilization processes. We test this hypothesis with long-term experiments (up to 5.5 years) using invertebrate and vertebrate corpses.Once placed on mats,the microbial community coats the corpses and forms a three-dimensional sarcophagus composed of microbial cells and exopolymeric substances (EPS). This coverage provides a template for i) moulding superficial features, resulting in negative impressions, and ii) generating replicas.The impressions of fly setulae, fish scales and frog skin verrucae are shaped mainly by small cells in an EPS matrix. Microbes also replicate delicate structures such as the three successive layers that compose a fish eye.The sarcophagus protects the body integrity, allowing the persistence of inner organs such as the ovaries and digestive apparatus in flies,the swim bladder and muscles in fish, and the bone marrow in frog legs.This study brings strong experimental evidence to the idea that mats favour metazoan fossilization by moulding, replicating and delaying decay. Rapid burial has classically been invoked as a mechanism to explain exceptional preservation. However, mats may play a similar role during early fossilization as they can preserve complex features for a long timeThis work, which is part of the research projects CGL2013-42643P and the research grant supporting M. Iniesto were funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness. The SEM facility at IMPMC was supported by Region Ile de France grant SESAME 2006 I-07-593/R, INSU-CNRS, INP-CNRS, and University Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris. SEM analyses performed for this study were supported by a grant from the Foundation Simone et Cino Del Duca (PI: K. Benzerara). Some SEM observations were also conducted at SIdI UAM (Madrid). Environmental SEM observations were performed at the MNCN (Madrid

Cost-effectiveness of the SEN-concept: Specialized Emergency Nurses (SEN) treating ankle/foot injuries

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Emergency Departments (EDs) are confronted with progressive overcrowding. As a consequence, the workload for ED physicians increases and waiting times go up with the risk of unnecessary complications and patient dissatisfaction. To cope with these problems, Specialized Emergency Nurses (SENs), regular ED-nurses receiving a short, injury-specific course, were trained to assess and treat minor injuries according to a specific protocol.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>An economic evaluation was conducted alongside a randomized controlled trial comparing House Officers (HOs) and SENs in their assessment of ankle and foot injuries. Cost prices were established for all parts of healthcare utilization involved. Total costs of health care utilization were computed per patient in both groups. Cost-effectiveness was investigated by comparing the difference in total cost between groups with the difference in sensitivity and specificity between groups in diagnosing fractures and severe sprains. Finally, cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated and presented on a cost-effectiveness plane.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>No significant differences were seen between treatment groups for any of the health care resources assessed. However, the waiting times for both first assessment by a treatment officer and time spent waiting between hearing the diagnosis and final treatment were significantly longer in the HO group. There was no statistically significant difference in costs between groups. The total costs were € 186 (SD € 623) for patients in the SEN group and € 153 (SD € 529) for patients in the HO group. The difference in total costs was € 33 (95% CI: – € 84 to € 155). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was € 27 for a reduction of one missed diagnosis and € 18 for a reduction of one false negative.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Considering the benefits of the SEN-concept in terms of decreased workload for the ED physicians, increased patient satisfaction and decreased waiting times, SENs appear to be a useful solution to the problem of ED crowding.</p

Analysis of Human Accelerated DNA Regions Using Archaic Hominin Genomes

Several previous comparisons of the human genome with other primate and vertebrate genomes identified genomic regions that are highly conserved in vertebrate evolution but fast-evolving on the human lineage. These human accelerated regions (HARs) may be regions of past adaptive evolution in humans. Alternatively, they may be the result of non-adaptive processes, such as biased gene conversion. We captured and sequenced DNA from a collection of previously published HARs using DNA from an Iberian Neandertal. Combining these new data with shotgun sequence from the Neandertal and Denisova draft genomes, we determine at least one archaic hominin allele for 84% of all positions within HARs. We find that 8% of HAR substitutions are not observed in the archaic hominins and are thus recent in the sense that the derived allele had not come to fixation in the common ancestor of modern humans and archaic hominins. Further, we find that recent substitutions in HARs tend to have come to fixation faster than substitutions elsewhere in the genome and that substitutions in HARs tend to cluster in time, consistent with an episodic rather than a clock-like process underlying HAR evolution. Our catalog of sequence changes in HARs will help prioritize them for functional studies of genomic elements potentially responsible for modern human adaptations

Cost-effectiveness analysis of 3-D computerized tomography colonography versus optical colonoscopy for imaging symptomatic gastroenterology patients.

BACKGROUND: When symptomatic gastroenterology patients have an indication for colonic imaging, clinicians have a choice between optical colonoscopy (OC) and computerized tomography colonography with three-dimensional reconstruction (3-D CTC). 3-D CTC provides a minimally invasive and rapid evaluation of the entire colon, and it can be an efficient modality for diagnosing symptoms. It allows for a more targeted use of OC, which is associated with a higher risk of major adverse events and higher procedural costs. A case can be made for 3-D CTC as a primary test for colonic imaging followed if necessary by targeted therapeutic OC; however, the relative long-term costs and benefits of introducing 3-D CTC as a first-line investigation are unknown. AIM: The aim of this study was to assess the cost effectiveness of 3-D CTC versus OC for colonic imaging of symptomatic gastroenterology patients in the UK NHS. METHODS: We used a Markov model to follow a cohort of 100,000 symptomatic gastroenterology patients, aged 50 years or older, and estimate the expected lifetime outcomes, life years (LYs) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and costs (£, 2010-2011) associated with 3-D CTC and OC. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the robustness of the base-case cost-effectiveness results to variation in input parameters and methodological assumptions. RESULTS: 3D-CTC provided a similar number of LYs (7.737 vs 7.739) and QALYs (7.013 vs 7.018) per individual compared with OC, and it was associated with substantially lower mean costs per patient (£467 vs £583), leading to a positive incremental net benefit. After accounting for the overall uncertainty, the probability of 3-D CTC being cost effective was around 60 %, at typical willingness-to-pay values of £20,000-£30,000 per QALY gained. CONCLUSION: 3-D CTC is a cost-saving and cost-effective option for colonic imaging of symptomatic gastroenterology patients compared with OC

Concurrent use of prescription drugs and herbal medicinal products in older adults: A systematic review

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.The use of herbal medicinal products (HMPs) is common among older adults. However, little is known about concurrent use with prescription drugs as well as the potential interactions associated with such combinations. Objective Identify and evaluate the literature on concurrent prescription and HMPs use among older adults to assess prevalence, patterns, potential interactions and factors associated with this use. Methods Systematic searches in MEDLINE, PsycINFO, EMBASE, CINAHL, AMED, Web of Science and Cochrane from inception to May 2017 for studies reporting concurrent use of prescription medicines with HMPs in adults (≥65 years). Quality was assessed using the Joanna Briggs Institute checklists. The Evidence for Policy and Practice Information and Co-ordinating Centre (EPPI-Centre) three stage approach to mixed method research was used to synthesise data. Results Twenty-two studies were included. A definition of HMPs or what was considered HMP was frequently missing. Prevalence of concurrent use by older adults varied widely between 5.3% and 88.3%. Prescription medicines most combined with HMPs were antihypertensive drugs, beta blockers, diuretics, antihyperlipidemic agents, anticoagulants, analgesics, antihistamines, antidiabetics, antidepressants and statins. The HMPs most frequently used were: ginkgo, garlic, ginseng, St John’s wort, Echinacea, saw palmetto, evening primrose oil and ginger. Potential risks of bleeding due to use of ginkgo, garlic or ginseng with aspirin or warfarin was the most reported herb-drug interaction. Some data suggests being female, a lower household income and less than high school education were associated with concurrent use. Conclusion Prevalence of concurrent prescription drugs and HMPs use among older adults is substantial and potential interactions have been reported. Knowledge of the extent and manner in which older adults combine prescription drugs will aid healthcare professionals can appropriately identify and manage patients at risk.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Cost-effectiveness of initiating extrafine- or standard size-particle inhaled corticosteroid for asthma in two health-care systems: a retrospective matched cohort study

Data acquisition and analyses were funded by Teva Pharmaceuticals

EFSA Panel on Food Contact Materials, Enzymes, Flavourings and Processing Aids (CEF) ; Scientific Opinion on Flavouring Group Evaluation 06, Revision 4 (FGE.06Rev4 ): Straight - and branched - chain aliphatic unsaturated primary alcohols, aldehydes, carboxylic acids and esters from chemical groups 1, 3 and 4

The Panel on Food Contact Materials, Enzymes, Flavourings and Processing Aids of the European Food Safety Authority was requested to evaluate 56 flavouring substances in the Flavouring Group Evaluation 6, Revision 4, using the Procedure in Commission Regulation (EC) No 1565/2000. This revision is made due to the inclusion of six additional flavouring substances, (-)-3,7-dimethyl-6-octen-1-ol [FL-no: 02.229], dec-4(cis)-enal [FL-no: 05.137], neral [FL-no: 05.170], trans-3,7-dimethylocta-2,6-dienal (geranial) [FL-no: 05.188], trans-3-hexenyl formate [FL-no: 09.562] and cis-3-hexenyl 2-methylbutanoate [FL-no: 09.854]. None of the substances were considered to have genotoxic potential. The substances were evaluated through a stepwise approach (the Procedure) that integrates information on structure-activity relationships, intake from current uses, toxicological threshold of concern and available data on metabolism and toxicity. The Panel concluded that the 56 substances [FL-no: 02.125, 02.138, 02.152, 02.170, 02.175, 02.176, 02.195, 02.201, 02.222, 02.229, 02.234, 05.061, 05.082, 05.137, 05.143, 05.170, 05.174, 05.188, 05.203, 05.217, 05.218, 05.220, 05.226, 08.074, 08.100, 08.102, 09.341, 09.368, 09.377, 09.562, 09.567, 09.569, 09.572, 09.575, 09.612, 09.638, 09.640, 09.643, 09.672, 09.673, 09.674, 09.831, 09.838, 09.854, 09.855, 09.871, 09.872, 09.884, 09.885, 09.897, 09.898, 09.928, 09.937, 09.938, 09.939 and 09.950] do not give rise to safety concern at their levels of dietary intake, estimated on the basis of the MSDI approach. Besides the safety assessment of these flavouring substances, the specifications for the materials of commerce have also been considered. Adequate specifications including complete purity criteria and identity for the materials of commerce have been provided for all 56 candidate substances