The critical role of the routing scheme in simulating peak river discharge in global hydrological models

Global hydrological models (GHMs) have been applied to assess global flood hazards, but their capacity to capture the timing and amplitude of peak river discharge—which is crucial in flood simulations—has traditionally not been the focus of examination. Here we evaluate to what degree the choice of river routing scheme affects simulations of peak discharge and may help to provide better agreement with observations. To this end we use runoff and discharge simulations of nine GHMs forced by observational climate data (1971–2010) within the ISIMIP2a project. The runoff simulations were used as input for the global river routing model CaMa-Flood. The simulated daily discharge was compared to the discharge generated by each GHM using its native river routing scheme. For each GHM both versions of simulated discharge were compared to monthly and daily discharge observations from 1701 GRDC stations as a benchmark. CaMa-Flood routing shows a general reduction of peak river discharge and a delay of about two to three weeks in its occurrence, likely induced by the buffering capacity of floodplain reservoirs. For a majority of river basins, discharge produced by CaMa-Flood resulted in a better agreement with observations. In particular, maximum daily discharge was adjusted, with a multi-model averaged reduction in bias over about 2/3 of the analysed basin area. The increase in agreement was obtained in both managed and near-natural basins. Overall, this study demonstrates the importance of routing scheme choice in peak discharge simulation, where CaMa-Flood routing accounts for floodplain storage and backwater effects that are not represented in most GHMs. Our study provides important hints that an explicit parameterisation of these processes may be essential in future impact studies

Infiltration from the pedon to global grid scales: an overview and outlook for land surface modelling

Infiltration in soils is a key process that partitions precipitation at the land surface in surface runoff and water that enters the soil profile. We reviewed the basic principles of water infiltration in soils and we analyzed approaches commonly used in Land Surface Models (LSMs) to quantify infiltration as well as its numerical implementation and sensitivity to model parameters. We reviewed methods to upscale infiltration from the point to the field, hill slope, and grid cell scale of LSMs. Despite the progress that has been made, upscaling of local scale infiltration processes to the grid scale used in LSMs is still far from being treated rigorously. We still lack a consistent theoretical framework to predict effective fluxes and parameters that control infiltration in LSMs. Our analysis shows, that there is a large variety in approaches used to estimate soil hydraulic properties. Novel, highly resolved soil information at higher resolutions than the grid scale of LSMs may help in better quantifying subgrid variability of key infiltration parameters. Currently, only a few land surface models consider the impact of soil structure on soil hydraulic properties. Finally, we identified several processes not yet considered in LSMs that are known to strongly influence infiltration. Especially, the impact of soil structure on infiltration requires further research. In order to tackle the above challenges and integrate current knowledge on soil processes affecting infiltration processes on land surface models, we advocate a stronger exchange and scientific interaction between the soil and the land surface modelling communities

Climate change impacts on river runoff in West Africa: a review

This review summarizes the impacts of climate change on runoff in West Africa, assesses the uncertainty in the projections and describes future research needs for the region. To do so, we constitute a meta-database made of 19 studies and 301 future runoff change values. The future tendency in streamflow developments is overall very uncertain (median of the 301 points is 0% and mean +5.2%), except for (i) the Gambia River which exhibits a significant negative change (median=-4.5%) and (ii) the Sassandra and the Niger Rivers where the change is much more positive (+14.4% and +6.1%). A correlation analysis revealed that runoff changes are tightly linked to changes in rainfall (R=0.49), and to a smaller extent also to changes in pPotential evapotranspirationET. Other parameters than climate such as the carbon effect on plant water efficiency, land use dynamics or water withdrawals could also significantly impact on runoff, but they generally do not offset the effects of climate change. In view of the potential changes, the large uncertainty therein, and the high vulnerability of the region to such changes, there is an urgent need forfor integrated studies that quantify the potential effects of these processes on water resources in West Africa and for more accuracy in climate models rainfall projections. We especially underline the lack of information concerning projections of future floods and droughts, and of inter-annual fluctuations in streamflows.JRC.H.7-Climate Risk Managemen

The Impact of Detailed Snow Physics on the Simulation of Snow Cover and Subsurface Thermodynamics at Continental Scales

The three-layer snow model is coupled to the global catchment-based Land Surface Model (LSM) of the NASA Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) project, and the combined models are used to simulate the growth and ablation of snow cover over the North American continent for the period 1987-1988. The various snow processes included in the three-layer model, such as snow melting and re-freezing, dynamic changes in snow density, and snow insulating properties, are shown (through a comparison with the corresponding simulation using a much simpler snow model) to lead to an improved simulation of ground thermodynamics on the continental scale

A Catchment-Based Approach to Modeling Land Surface Processes in a GCM

A new strategy for modeling the land surface component of the climate system is described. The strategy is motivated by an arguable deficiency in most state-of-the-art land surface models (LSMs), namely the disproportionately higher emphasis given to the formulation of one-dimensional, vertical physics relative to the treatment of horizontal heterogeneity in surface properties -- particularly subgrid soil moisture variability and its effects on runoff generation. The new strategy calls for the partitioning of the continental surface into a mosaic of hydrologic catchments, delineated through analysis of high-resolution surface elevation data. The effective "grid" used for the land surface is therefore not specified by the overlying atmospheric grid. Within each catchment, the variability of soil moisture is related to characteristics of the topography and to three bulk soil moisture variables through a well-established model of catchment processes. This modeled variability allows the partitioning of the catchment into several areas representing distinct hydrological regimes, wherein distinct (regime-specific) evaporation and runoff parameterizations are applied. Care is taken to ensure that the deficiencies of the catchment model in regions of little to moderate topography are minimized

Multi-variable evaluation of land surface processes in forced and coupled modes reveals new error sources to the simulated water cycle in the IPSL climate model

International audienceAbstract. Evaluating land surface models (LSMs) using available observations is important to understand the potential and limitations of current Earth system models in simulating water- and carbon-related variables. To reveal the error sources of a land surface model (LSM), four essential climate variables have been evaluated in this paper (i.e., surface soil moisture, evapotranspiration, leaf area index, and surface albedo) via simulations with IPSL LSM ORCHIDEE (Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems), particularly focusing on the difference between (i) forced simulations with atmospheric forcing data (WATCH-Forcing-DATA-ERA-Interim: WFDEI) and (ii) coupled simulations with the IPSL atmospheric general circulation model. Results from statistical evaluation using satellite- and ground-based reference data show that ORCHIDEE is well equipped to represent spatiotemporal patterns of all variables in general. However, further analysis against various landscape/meteorological factors (e.g., plant functional type, slope, precipitation, and irrigation) suggests potential uncertainty relating to freezing/snowmelt, temperate plant phenology, irrigation, as well as contrasted responses between forced and coupled mode simulations. The biases in the simulated variables are amplified in coupled mode via surface–atmosphere interactions, indicating a strong link between irrigation–precipitation and a relatively complex link between precipitation–evapotranspiration that reflects the hydrometeorological regime of the region (energy-limited or water-limited) and snow-albedo feedback in mountainous and boreal regions. The different results between forced and coupled modes imply the importance of model evaluation under both modes to isolate potential sources of uncertainty in the model

Interannual coupling between summertime surface temperature and precipitation: processes and implication for climate change

Widespread negative correlations between summertime-mean temperatures and precipitation over land regions are a well-known feature of terrestrial climate. This behavior has generally been interpreted in the context of soil moisture-atmosphere coupling, with soil moisture deficits associated with reduced rainfall leading to enhanced surface sensible heating and higher surface temperature. The present study revisits the genesis of these negative temperature- precipitation correlations using simulations from the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment - Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (GLACE-CMIP5) multi-model experiment. The analyses are based on simulations with 5 climate models, which were integrated with prescribed (non-interactive) and with interactive soil moisture over the period 1950-2100. While the results presented here generally confirm the interpretation that negative correlations between seasonal temperature and precipitation arise through the direct control of soil moisture on surface heat flux partitioning, the presence of widespread negative correlations when soil moisture- atmosphere interactions are artificially removed in at least two out of five models suggests that atmospheric processes, in addition to land surface processes, contribute to the observed negative temperature-precipitation correlation. On longer timescales, the negative correlation between precipitation and temperature is shown to have implications for the projection of climate change impacts on near surface climate: in all models, in the regions of strongest temperature-precipitation anti-correlation on interannual timescales, long-term regional warming is modulated to a large extent by the regional response of precipitation to climate change, with precipitation increases (decreases) being associated with minimum (maximum) warming. This correspondence appears to arise largely as the result of soil-moisture atmosphere interactions