Linking world bank development indicators and outcomes of congenital heart surgery in low-income and middle-income countries: Retrospective analysis of quality improvement data

Objective Many low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) struggle to provide the health services investment required for life-saving congenital heart disease (CHD) surgery. We explored associations between risk-adjusted CHD surgical mortality from 17 LMICs and global development indices to identify patterns that might inform investment strategies. Design Retrospective analysis: country-specific standardised mortality ratios were graphed against global development indices reflective of wealth and healthcare investment. Spearman correlation coefficients were calculated. Setting and participants The International Quality Improvement Collaborative (IQIC) keeps a volunteer registry of outcomes of CHD surgery programmes in low-resource settings. Inclusion in the IQIC is voluntary enrolment by hospital sites. Patients in the registry underwent congenital heart surgery. Sites that actively participated in IQIC in 2013, 2014 or 2015 and passed a 10% data audit were asked for permission to share data for this study. 31 sites in 17 countries are included. Outcome measures In-hospital mortality: standardised mortality ratios were calculated. Risk adjustment for in-hospital mortality uses the Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery method, a model including surgical risk category, age group, prematurity, presence of a major non-cardiac structural anomaly and multiple congenital heart procedures during admission. Results The IQIC registry includes 24 917 congenital heart surgeries performed in children less than 18 years of age. The overall in-hospital mortality rate was 5.0%. Country-level congenital heart surgery standardised mortality ratios were negatively correlated with gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (r=-0.34, p=0.18), and health expenditure per capita (r=-0.23, p=0.37) and positively correlated with under-five mortality (r=0.60, p=0.01) and undernourishment (r=0.39, p=0.17). Countries with lower development had wider variation in mortality. GDP per capita is a driver of the association between some other measures and mortality. Conclusions Results display a moderate relationship among wealth, healthcare investment and malnutrition, with significant variation, including superior results in many countries with low GDP per capita. These findings provide context and optimism for investment in CHD procedures in low-resource settings. © 2019 BMJ Publishing Group Limited

Obesity, Metabolic Factors and Risk of Different Histological Types of Lung Cancer: A Mendelian Randomization Study

Background Assessing the relationship between lung cancer and metabolic conditions is challenging because of the confounding effect of tobacco. Mendelian randomization (MR), or the use of genetic instrumental variables to assess causality, may help to identify the metabolic drivers of lung cancer. Methods and findings We identified genetic instruments for potential metabolic risk factors and evaluated these in relation to risk using 29,266 lung cancer cases (including 11,273 adenocarcinomas, 7,426 squamous cell and 2,664 small cell cases) and 56,450 controls. The MR risk analysis suggested a causal effect of body mass index (BMI) on lung cancer risk for two of the three major histological subtypes, with evidence of a risk increase for squamous cell carcinoma (odds ratio (OR) [95% confidence interval (CI)] = 1.20 [1.01–1.43] and for small cell lung cancer (OR [95%CI] = 1.52 [1.15–2.00]) for each standard deviation (SD) increase in BMI [4.6 kg/m2]), but not for adenocarcinoma (OR [95%CI] = 0.93 [0.79–1.08]) (Pheterogeneity = 4.3x10-3). Additional analysis using a genetic instrument for BMI showed that each SD increase in BMI increased cigarette consumption by 1.27 cigarettes per day (P = 2.1x10-3), providing novel evidence that a genetic susceptibility to obesity influences smoking patterns. There was also evidence that low-density lipoprotein cholesterol was inversely associated with lung cancer overall risk (OR [95%CI] = 0.90 [0.84–0.97] per SD of 38 mg/dl), while fasting insulin was positively associated (OR [95%CI] = 1.63 [1.25–2.13] per SD of 44.4 pmol/l). Sensitivity analyses including a weighted-median approach and MR-Egger test did not detect other pleiotropic effects biasing the main results. Conclusions Our results are consistent with a causal role of fasting insulin and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol in lung cancer etiology, as well as for BMI in squamous cell and small cell carcinoma. The latter relation may be mediated by a previously unrecognized effect of obesity on smoking behavior

Obesity, Metabolic Factors and Risk of Different Histological Types of Lung Cancer: A Mendelian Randomization Study

Background: Assessing the relationship between lung cancer and metabolic conditions is challenging because of the confounding effect of tobacco. Mendelian randomization (MR), or the use of genetic instrumental variables to assess causality, may help to identify the metabolic drivers of lung cancer. Methods and findings: We identified genetic instruments for potential metabolic risk factors and evaluated these in relation to risk using 29,266 lung cancer cases (including 11,273 adenocarcinomas, 7,426 squamous cell and 2,664 small cell cases) and 56,450 controls. The MR risk analysis suggested a causal effect of body mass index (BMI) on lung cancer risk for two of the three major histological subtypes, with evidence of a risk increase for squamous cell carcinoma (odds ratio (OR) [95% confidence interval (CI)] = 1.20 [1.01–1.43] and for small cell lung cancer (OR [95%CI] = 1.52 [1.15–2.00]) for each standard deviation (SD) increase in BMI [4.6 kg/m2]), but not for adenocarcinoma (OR [95%CI] = 0.93 [0.79–1.08]) (Pheterogeneity = 4.3x10-3). Additional analysis using a genetic instrument for BMI showed that each SD increase in BMI increased cigarette consumption by 1.27 cigarettes per day (P = 2.1x10-3), providing novel evidence that a genetic susceptibility to obesity influences smoking patterns. There was also evidence that low-density lipoprotein cholesterol was inversely associated with lung cancer overall risk (OR [95%CI] = 0.90 [0.84–0.97] per SD of 38 mg/dl), while fasting insulin was positively associated (OR [95%CI] = 1.63 [1.25–2.13] per SD of 44.4 pmol/l). Sensitivity analyses including a weighted-median approach and MR-Egger test did not detect other pleiotropic effects biasing the main results. Conclusions: Our results are consistent with a causal role of fasting insulin and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol in lung cancer etiology, as well as for BMI in squamous cell and small cell carcinoma. The latter relation may be mediated by a previously unrecognized effect of obesity on smoking behavior

Obesity, metabolic factors and risk of different histological types of lung cancer: A Mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND: Assessing the relationship between lung cancer and metabolic conditions is challenging because of the confounding effect of tobacco. Mendelian randomization (MR), or the use of genetic instrumental variables to assess causality, may help to identify the metabolic drivers of lung cancer. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We identified genetic instruments for potential metabolic risk factors and evaluated these in relation to risk using 29,266 lung cancer cases (including 11,273 adenocarcinomas, 7,426 squamous cell and 2,664 small cell cases) and 56,450 controls. The MR risk analysis suggested a causal effect of body mass index (BMI) on lung cancer risk for two of the three major histological subtypes, with evidence of a risk increase for squamous cell carcinoma (odds ratio (OR) [95% confidence interval (CI)] = 1.20 [1.01-1.43] and for small cell lung cancer (OR [95%CI] = 1.52 [1.15-2.00]) for each standard deviation (SD) increase in BMI [4.6 kg/m2]), but not for adenocarcinoma (OR [95%CI] = 0.93 [0.79-1.08]) (Pheterogeneity = 4.3x10-3). Additional analysis using a genetic instrument for BMI showed that each SD increase in BMI increased cigarette consumption by 1.27 cigarettes per day (P = 2.1x10-3), providing novel evidence that a genetic susceptibility to obesity influences smoking patterns. There was also evidence that low-density lipoprotein cholesterol was inversely associated with lung cancer overall risk (OR [95%CI] = 0.90 [0.84-0.97] per SD of 38 mg/dl), while fasting insulin was positively associated (OR [95%CI] = 1.63 [1.25-2.13] per SD of 44.4 pmol/l). Sensitivity analyses including a weighted-median approach and MR-Egger test did not detect other pleiotropic effects biasing the main results. CONCLUSIONS: Our results are consistent with a causal role of fasting insulin and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol in lung cancer etiology, as well as for BMI in squamous cell and small cell carcinoma. The latter relation may be mediated by a previously unrecognized effect of obesity on smoking behavior

Pulmonary Vein Stenosis: A Rare Disease with a Global Reach

Pulmonary vein stenosis (PVS) is a rare, but high mortality and resource intensive disease caused by mechanical obstruction or intraluminal myofibroproliferation, which can be post-surgical or idiopathic. There are increasing options for management including medications, cardiac catheterization procedures, and surgery. We queried the International Quality Improvement Collaborative for Congenital Heart Disease (IQIC) database for cases of PVS and described the cohort including additional congenital lesions and surgeries as well as infectious and mortality outcomes. IQIC is a quality improvement project in low-middle-income countries with the goal of reducing mortality after congenital heart surgery. Three cases were described in detail with relevant images. We identified 57 cases of PVS surgery, with similar mortality to higher income countries. PVS should be recognized as a global disease. More research and collaboration are needed to understand the disease, treatments, and outcomes, and to devise treatment approaches for low resource environments

Linking world bank development indicators and outcomes of congenital heart surgery in low-income and middle-income countries: Retrospective analysis of quality improvement data

"Objective Many low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) struggle to provide the health services investment required for life-saving congenital heart disease (CHD) surgery. We explored associations between risk-adjusted CHD surgical mortality from 17 LMICs and global development indices to identify patterns that might inform investment strategies. Design Retrospective analysis: country-specific standardised mortality ratios were graphed against global development indices reflective of wealth and healthcare investment. Spearman correlation coefficients were calculated. Setting and participants The International Quality Improvement Collaborative (IQIC) keeps a volunteer registry of outcomes of CHD surgery programmes in low-resource settings. Inclusion in the IQIC is voluntary enrolment by hospital sites. Patients in the registry underwent congenital heart surgery. Sites that actively participated in IQIC in 2013, 2014 or 2015 and passed a 10% data audit were asked for permission to share data for this study. 31 sites in 17 countries are included. Outcome measures In-hospital mortality: standardised mortality ratios were calculated. Risk adjustment for in-hospital mortality uses the Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery method, a model including surgical risk category, age group, prematurity, presence of a major non-cardiac structural anomaly and multiple congenital heart procedures during admission. Results The IQIC registry includes 24 917 congenital heart surgeries performed in children less than 18 years of age. The overall in-hospital mortality rate was 5.0%. Country-level congenital heart surgery standardised mortality ratios were negatively correlated with gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (r=-0.34, p=0.18), and health expenditure per capita (r=-0.23, p=0.37) and positively correlated with under-five mortality (r=0.60, p=0.01) and undernourishment (r=0.39, p=0.17). Countries with lower development had wider variation in mortality. GDP per capita is a driver of the association between some other measures and mortality. Conclusions Results display a moderate relationship among wealth, healthcare investment and malnutrition, with significant variation, including superior results in many countries with low GDP per capita. These findings provide context and optimism for investment in CHD procedures in low-resource settings. © 2019 BMJ Publishing Group Limited.

Extreme drought impacts have been underestimated in grasslands and shrublands globally.

Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of short-term (~1 y) drought events-the most common duration of drought-globally. Yet the impact of this intensification of drought on ecosystem functioning remains poorly resolved. This is due in part to the widely disparate approaches ecologists have employed to study drought, variation in the severity and duration of drought studied, and differences among ecosystems in vegetation, edaphic and climatic attributes that can mediate drought impacts. To overcome these problems and better identify the factors that modulate drought responses, we used a coordinated distributed experiment to quantify the impact of short-term drought on grassland and shrubland ecosystems. With a standardized approach, we imposed ~a single year of drought at 100 sites on six continents. Here we show that loss of a foundational ecosystem function-aboveground net primary production (ANPP)-was 60% greater at sites that experienced statistically extreme drought (1-in-100-y event) vs. those sites where drought was nominal (historically more common) in magnitude (35% vs. 21%, respectively). This reduction in a key carbon cycle process with a single year of extreme drought greatly exceeds previously reported losses for grasslands and shrublands. Our global experiment also revealed high variability in drought response but that relative reductions in ANPP were greater in drier ecosystems and those with fewer plant species. Overall, our results demonstrate with unprecedented rigor that the global impacts of projected increases in drought severity have been significantly underestimated and that drier and less diverse sites are likely to be most vulnerable to extreme drought

Obesity, metabolic factors and risk of different histological types of lung cancer: A Mendelian randomization study

Background: Assessing the relationship between lung cancer and metabolic conditions is challenging because of the confounding effect of tobacco. Mendelian randomization (MR), or the use of genetic instrumental variables to assess causality, may help to identify the metabolic drivers of lung cancer. Methods and findings: We identified genetic instruments for potential metabolic risk factors and evaluated these in relation to risk using 29,266 lung cancer cases (including 11,273 adenocarcinomas, 7,426 squamous cell and 2,664 small cell cases) and 56,450 controls. The MR risk analysis suggested a causal effect of body mass index (BMI) on lung cancer risk for two of the three major histological subtypes, with evidence of a risk increase for squamous cell carcinoma (odds ratio (OR) [95% confidence interval (CI)] = 1.20 [1.01-1.43] and for small cell lung cancer (OR [95% CI] = 1.52 [1.15-2.00]) for each standard deviation (SD) increase in BMI [4.6 kg/m(2)]), but not for adenocarcinoma (OR [95% CI] = 0.93 [0.79-1.08]) (P-heterogeneity = 4.3x10(-3)). Additional analysis using a genetic instrument for BMI showed that each SD increase in BMI increased cigarette consumption by 1.27 cigarettes per day (P = 2.1x10(-3)), providing novel evidence that a genetic susceptibility to obesity influences smoking patterns. There was also evidence that low-density lipoprotein cholesterol was inversely associated with lung cancer overall risk (OR [95% CI] = 0.90 [0.84-0.97] per SD of 38 mg/dl), while fasting insulin was positively associated (OR [95% CI] = 1.63 [1.25-2.13] per SD of 44.4 pmol/l). Sensitivity analyses including a weighted-median approach and MR-Egger test did not detect other pleiotropic effects biasing the main results. Conclusions: Our results are consistent with a causal role of fasting insulin and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol in lung cancer etiology, as well as for BMI in squamous cell and small cell carcinoma. The latter relation may be mediated by a previously unrecognized effect of obesity on smoking behavior