The Future of Reef Ecosystems in the Gulf of Mexico: Insights From Coupled Climate Model Simulations and Ancient Hot-House Reefs

emperatures (SST), salinity, carbonate chemistry, and acidity. Over the last half-century, some reef communities have been disappearing at an alarming pace. This study focuses on the Gulf of Mexico, where the majority of shallow coral reefs are reported to be in poor or fair condition. We analyze the RCP8.5 ensemble of the Community Earth System Model v1.2 to identify monthly-to-decadal trends in Gulf of Mexico SST. Secondly, we examine projected changes in ocean pH, carbonate saturation state, and salinity in the same coupled model simulations. We find that the joint impacts of predicted higher temperatures and changes in ocean acidification will severely degrade Gulf of Mexico reef systems by the end of the twenty-first century. SSTs are likely to warm by 2.5-3 degrees C; while corals do show signs of an ability to adapt toward higher temperatures, current coral species and reef systems are likely to suffer major bleaching events in coming years. We contextualize future changes with ancient reefs from paleoclimate analogs, periods of Earth\u27s past that were also exceptionally warm, specifically rapid hyperthermal events. Ancient analog events are often associated with extinctions, reef collapse, and significant ecological changes, yet reef communities managed to survive these events on evolutionary timescales. Finally, we review research which discusses the adaptive potential of the Gulf of Mexico\u27s coral reefs, meccas of biodiversity and oceanic health. We assert that the only guaranteed solution for long-term conservation and recovery is substantial, rapid reduction of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions

Obliquity pacing of the western Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone over the past 282,000 years

The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) encompasses the heaviest rain belt on the Earth. Few direct long-term records, especially in the Pacific, limit our understanding of long-term natural variability for predicting future ITCZ migration. Here we present a tropical precipitation record from the Southern Hemisphere covering the past 282,000 years, inferred from a marine sedimentary sequence collected off the eastern coast of Papua New Guinea. Unlike the precession paradigm expressed in its East Asian counterpart, our record shows that the western Pacific ITCZ migration was influenced by combined precession and obliquity changes. The obliquity forcing could be primarily delivered by a cross-hemispherical thermal/pressure contrast, resulting from the asymmetric continental configuration between Asia and Australia in a coupled East Asian-Australian circulation system. Our finding suggests that the obliquity forcing may play a more important role in global hydroclimate cycles than previously thought

The flower garden banks Siderastrea siderea coral as a candidate global boundary stratotype section and point for the Anthropocene series

The proposed Anthropocene Global Boundary Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP) candidate site of West Flower Garden Bank (27.8762°N, 93.8147°W) is an open ocean location in the Gulf of Mexico with a submerged coral reef and few direct human impacts. Corals contain highly accurate and precise (<±1 year) internal chronologies, similar to tree rings, and their exoskeletons are formed of aragonite and can be preserved in the rock record. Here we present results from a large Siderastrea siderea coral (core 05WFGB3; 1755–2005 CE) sampled with annual and monthly resolutions that show clear markers of global and regional human impacts. Atmospheric nuclear bomb testing by-products (14C, 239+240Pu) have clear increases in this coral starting in 1957 for 14C and the first increase in 1956 for 239+240Pu (potential bases for the Anthropocene GSSP). Coral δ13C declined especially after 1956 consistent with the Suess Effect resulting from the burning of fossil fuels. Coral skeletal δ15N starts to increase in 1963 corresponding with the increase in agricultural fertilizers. Coral Hg concentrations (1933–1980) loosely track fluctuations in industrial pollution and coral Ba/Ca increases from 1965–1983 when offshore oil operations expand after 1947. Coral temperature proxies contain the 20th-century global warming trend whereas coral growth declines during this interval

The Iso2k Database: A global compilation of paleo-δ18O and δ2H records to aid understanding of Common Era climate

Reconstructions of global hydroclimate during the Common Era (CE; the past ~ 2000 years) are important for providing context for current and future global environmental change. Stable isotope ratios in water are quantitative indicators of hydroclimate on regional to global scales, and these signals are encoded in a wide range of natural geologic archives. Here we present the Iso2k database, a global compilation of previously published datasets from a variety of natural archives that record the stable oxygen (δ18O) or hydrogen (δ2H) isotopic composition of environmental waters, which reflect hydroclimate changes over the CE. The Iso2k database contains 756 isotope records from the terrestrial and marine realms, including: glacier and ground ice (205); speleothems (68); corals, sclerosponges, and mollusks (145); wood (81); lake sediments and other terrestrial sediments (e.g., loess) (158); and marine sediments (99). Individual datasets have temporal resolutions ranging from sub-annual to centennial, and include chronological data where available. A fundamental feature of the database is its comprehensive metadata, which will assist both experts and non-experts in the interpretation of each record and in data synthesis. Key metadata fields have standardized vocabularies to facilitate comparisons across diverse archives and with climate model simulated fields. This is the first global-scale collection of water isotope proxy records from multiple types of geological and biological archives. It is suitable for evaluating hydroclimate processes through time and space using large-scale synthesis, model-data intercomparison and (paleo)data assimilation. The Iso2k database is available for download at: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.11553162 (McKay and Konecky, 2020)

Fundamental questions and applications of sclerochronology: Community-defined research priorities.

Horizon scanning is an increasingly common strategy to identify key research needs and frame future agendas in science. Here, we present the results of the first such exercise for the field of sclerochronology, thereby providing an overview of persistent and emergent research questions that should be addressed by future studies. Through online correspondence following the 5th International Sclerochronology Conference in 2019, participants submitted and rated questions that addressed either knowledge gaps or promising applications of sclerochronology. An initial list of 130 questions was compiled based on contributions of conference attendees and reviewed by expert panels formed during the conference. Herein, we present and discuss the 50 questions rated to be of the highest priority, determined through an online survey distributed to sclerochronology community members post the conference. The final list (1) includes important questions related to mechanisms of biological control over biomineralization, (2) highlights state of the art applications of sclerochronological methods and data for solving long-standing questions in other fields such as climate science and ecology, and (3) emphasizesthe need for common standards for data management and analysis. Although research priorities are continually reassessed, our list provides a roadmap that can be used to motivate research efforts and advance sclerochronology towardnew, and more powerful, applications.N/

Fundamental questions and applications of sclerochronology: Community-defined research priorities

Horizon scanning is an increasingly common strategy to identify key research needs and frame future agendas in science. Here, we present the results of the first such exercise for the field of sclerochronology, thereby providing an overview of persistent and emergent research questions that should be addressed by future studies. Through online correspondence following the 5th International Sclerochronology Conference in 2019, participants submitted and rated questions that addressed either knowledge gaps or promising applications of sclerochronology. An initial list of 130 questions was compiled based on contributions of conference attendees and reviewed by expert panels formed during the conference. Herein, we present and discuss the 50 questions rated to be of the highest priority, determined through an online survey distributed to sclerochronology community members post the conference. The final list: (1) includes important questions related to mechanisms of biological control over biomineralization; (2) highlights state of the art applications of sclerochronological methods and data for solving long-standing questions in other fields such as climate science and ecology: and (3) emphasizes the need for common standards for data management and analysis. Although research priorities are continually reassessed, our list provides a roadmap that can be used to motivate research efforts and advance sclerochronology toward new, and more powerful, applications

The Iso2k database: a global compilation of paleo-δ18O and δ2H records to aid understanding of common era climate

Reconstructions of global hydroclimate during the Common Era (CE; the past ~2,000 years) are important for providing context for current and future global environmental change. Stable isotope ratios in water are quantitative indicators of hydroclimate on regional to global scales, and these signals are encoded in a wide range of natural geologic archives. Here we present the Iso2k database, a global compilation of previously published datasets from a variety of natural archives that record the stable oxygen (δ18O) or hydrogen (δ²H) isotopic composition of environmental waters, which reflect hydroclimate changes over the CE. The Iso2k database contains 756 isotope records from the terrestrial and marine realms, including: glacier and ground ice (205); speleothems (68); corals, sclerosponges, and mollusks (145); wood (81); lake sediments and other terrestrial sediments (e.g., loess) (158); and marine sediments (99). Individual datasets have temporal resolutions ranging from sub-annual to centennial, and include chronological data where available. A fundamental feature of the database is its comprehensive metadata, which will assist both experts and non-experts in the interpretation of each record and in data synthesis. Key metadata fields have standardized vocabularies to facilitate comparisons across diverse archives and with climate model simulated fields. This is the first global-scale collection of water isotope proxy records from multiple types of geological and biological archives. It is suitable for evaluating hydroclimate processes through time and space using large-scale synthesis, model-data intercomparison and (paleo)data assimilation. The Iso2k database is available for download at: https://doi.org/10.25921/57j8-vs18 (Konecky and McKay, 2020) and is also accessible via through the NOAA/WDS Paleo Data landing page: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/29593

Reconstructing 20th century SST variability in the southwest pacific: A replication study using multiple coral Sr/Ca records from New Caledonia

Coral-based climate reconstructions typically have not used multiple cores from a region to capture and replicate a climate signal largely because of concerns focused on coral conservation, analytical expense, and time constraints. Coral Sr/Ca reproducibility through the 20th century was investigated using three intra-colony and three inter-colony coral records, from the reefs offshore of Amédée Island, New Caledonia. Different sampling resolutions were examined in coral Sr/Ca (fortnightly and monthly) and delta 18O (fortnightly, monthly, and seasonally) as well as similar scale subsampling of the daily in situ SST record. The mean coral Sr/Ca, delta 18O, and daily SST values do not change as a function of sampling resolution. The coral Sr/Ca signal is highly reproducible; the average absolute offset between coeval Sr/Ca determinations between any two coral Sr/Ca time series is 0.036 mmol/mol (approximately 0.65°C), which is less than twice the analytical precision of the coral Sr/Ca measurements. The stack average of the monthly coral Sr/Ca variations and monthly anomalies are significantly correlated with monthly in situ SST (r equals -0.95, -0.56, respectively) for the period 1967 to 1992 and monthly 1-degree gridded SST data product (r equals -0.95, -0.53, respectively) for the period 1900 to 1999. The coral Sr/Ca-SST reconstruction exhibits decadal-scale fluctuations that exceed those observed in the gridded SST time series, which may reflect true differences between the SST at a shallow reef site and those averaged over a 1-degree grid box or they may reflect inadequacies in the methodology used to create the gridded SST product when few observations are available. A warming trend of approximately 0.6°C is observed in the coral Sr/Ca-SST record. Monthly coral Sr/Ca records and seasonally resolved coral delta 18O record from this site share variance in the latter half of the 20th century, but not in the early 20th century, suggestive of a change in seawater delta 18O