Exploring Spatial Patterns of Virginia Tornadoes Using Kernel Density and Space-Time Cube Analysis (1960-2019)

This study evaluates the spatial-temporal patterns in Virginia tornadoes using the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather GIS (SVRGIS) database. In addition to descriptive statistics, the analysis employs Kernel Density Estimation for spatial pattern analysis and space-time cubes to visualize the spatiotemporal frequency of tornadoes and potential trends. Most of the 726 tornadoes between 1960–2019 occurred in Eastern Virginia, along the Piedmont and Coastal Plain. Consistent with other literature, both the number of tornadoes and the tornado days have increased in Virginia. While 80% of the tornadoes occurred during the warm season, tornadoes did occur during each month including two deadly tornadoes in January and February. Over the 60-year period, a total of 28 people were killed in the Commonwealth. Most tornado activity took place in the afternoon and early evening hours drawing attention to the temporal variability of risk and vulnerability. Spatial analysis results identify significant, non-random clusters of tornado activity and increasing temporal frequency. While this study improves weather-related literacy and addresses a need in the Commonwealth, more research is necessary to further evaluate the synoptic and mesoscale mechanisms of Virginia tornadoes

Superconducting Accelerating Cavity Pressure Sensitivity Analysis and Stiffening

The Soreq Applied Research Accelerator Facility (SARAF) design is based on a 40 MeV 5 mA light ions superconducting RF linac. Phase-I of SARAF delivers up to 2 mA CW proton beams in an energy range of 1.5 - 4.0 MeV. The maximum beam power that we have reached is 5.7 kW. Today, the main limiting factor to reach higher ion energy and beam power is related to the HWR sensitivity to the liquid helium coolant pressure fluctuations. The HWR sensitivity to helium pressure is about 60 Hz/mbar. The cavities had been designed, a decade ago, to be soft in order to enable tuning of their novel shape. However, the cavities turned out to be too soft. In this work we found that increasing the rigidity of the cavities in the vicinity of the external drift tubes may reduce the cavity sensitivity by a factor of three. A preliminary design to increase the cavity rigidity is presented

Two stages of parafoveal processing during reading: Evidence from a display change detection task

We used a display change detection paradigm (Slattery, Angele, & Rayner Human Perception and Performance, 37, 1924–1938 2011) to investigate whether display change detection uses orthographic regularity and whether detection is affected by the processing difficulty of the word preceding the boundary that triggers the display change. Subjects were significantly more sensitive to display changes when the change was from a nonwordlike preview than when the change was from a wordlike preview, but the preview benefit effect on the target word was not affected by whether the preview was wordlike or nonwordlike. Additionally, we did not find any influence of preboundary word frequency on display change detection performance. Our results suggest that display change detection and lexical processing do not use the same cognitive mechanisms. We propose that parafoveal processing takes place in two stages: an early, orthography-based, preattentional stage, and a late, attention-dependent lexical access stage

The JCMT Gould Belt Survey: A First Look at the Auriga–California Molecular Cloud with SCUBA-2

We present 850 and 450 μm observations of the dense regions within the Auriga–California molecular cloud using SCUBA-2 as part of the JCMT Gould Belt Legacy Survey to identify candidate protostellar objects, measure the masses of their circumstellar material (disk and envelope), and compare the star formation to that in the Orion A molecular cloud. We identify 59 candidate protostars based on the presence of compact submillimeter emission, complementing these observations with existing Herschel/SPIRE maps. Of our candidate protostars, 24 are associated with young stellar objects (YSOs) in the Spitzer and Herschel/PACS catalogs of 166 and 60 YSOs, respectively (177 unique), confirming their protostellar nature. The remaining 35 candidate protostars are in regions, particularly around LkHα 101, where the background cloud emission is too bright to verify or rule out the presence of the compact 70 μm emission that is expected for a protostellar source. We keep these candidate protostars in our sample but note that they may indeed be prestellar in nature. Our observations are sensitive to the high end of the mass distribution in Auriga–Cal. We find that the disparity between the richness of infrared star-forming objects in Orion A and the sparsity in Auriga–Cal extends to the submillimeter, suggesting that the relative star formation rates have not varied over the Class II lifetime and that Auriga–Cal will maintain a lower star formation efficiency

AVPV neurons containing estrogen receptor-beta in adult male rats are influenced by soy isoflavones

BACKGROUND: Isoflavones, the most abundant phytoestrogens in soy foods, are structurally similar to 17beta-estradiol. It is known that 17beta-estradiol induces apoptosis in anteroventral periventricular nucleus (AVPV) in rat brain. Also, there is evidence that consumption of soy isoflavones reduces the volume of AVPV in male rats. Therefore, in this study, we examined the influence of dietary soy isoflavones on apoptosis in AVPV of 150 day-old male rats fed either a soy isoflavone-free diet (Phyto-free) or a soy isoflavone-rich diet (Phyto-600). RESULTS: The occurrence of apoptosis in AVPV was examined by TUNEL staining. The incidence of apoptosis was about 10 times higher in the Phyto-600 group (33.1 ± 1.7%) than in the Phyto-free group (3.6 ± 1.0%). Furthermore, these apoptotic cells were identified as neurons by dual immunofluorescent staining of GFAP and NeuN as markers of astrocytes and neurons, respectively. Then the dopaminergic neurons in AVPV were detected by immunohistochemistry staining of tyrosine hydroxylase (TH). No significant difference in the number of TH neurons was observed between the diet treatment groups. When estrogen receptor (ER) alpha and beta were examined by immunohistochemistry, we observed a 22% reduction of ERbeta-positive cell numbers in AVPV with consumption of soy isoflavones, whereas no significant change in ERalpha-positive cell numbers was detected. Furthermore, almost all the apoptotic cells were ERbeta-immunoreactive (ir), but not ERalpha-ir. Last, subcutaneous injections of equol (a major isoflavone metabolite) that accounts for approximately 70–90% of the total circulating plasma isoflavone levels did not alter the volume of AVPV in adult male rats. CONCLUSION: In summary, these findings provide direct evidence that consumption of soy isoflavones, but not the exposure to equol, influences the loss of ERbeta-containing neurons in male AVPV

Genetics of callous-unemotional behavior in children

Callous-unemotional behavior (CU) is currently under consideration as a subtyping index for conduct disorder diagnosis. Twin studies routinely estimate the heritability of CU as greater than 50%. It is now possible to estimate genetic influence using DNA alone from samples of unrelated individuals, not relying on the assumptions of the twin method. Here we use this new DNA method (implemented in a software package called Genome-wide Complex Trait Analysis, GCTA) for the first time to estimate genetic influence on CU. We also report the first genome-wide association (GWA) study of CU as a quantitative trait. We compare these DNA results to those from twin analyses using the same measure and the same community sample of 2,930 children rated by their teachers at ages 7, 9 and 12. GCTA estimates of heritability were near zero, even though twin analysis of CU in this sample confirmed the high heritability of CU reported in the literature, and even though GCTA estimates of heritability were substantial for cognitive and anthropological traits in this sample. No significant associations were found in GWA analysis, which, like GCTA, only detects additive effects of common DNA variants. The phrase ‘missing heritability’ was coined to refer to the gap between variance associated with DNA variants identified in GWA studies versus twin study heritability. However, GCTA heritability, not twin study heritability, is the ceiling for GWA studies because both GCTA and GWA are limited to the overall additive effects of common DNA variants, whereas twin studies are not. This GCTA ceiling is very low for CU in our study, despite its high twin study heritability estimate. The gap between GCTA and twin study heritabilities will make it challenging to identify genes responsible for the heritability of CU

Reciprocity as a foundation of financial economics

This paper argues that the subsistence of the fundamental theorem of contemporary financial mathematics is the ethical concept ‘reciprocity’. The argument is based on identifying an equivalence between the contemporary, and ostensibly ‘value neutral’, Fundamental Theory of Asset Pricing with theories of mathematical probability that emerged in the seventeenth century in the context of the ethical assessment of commercial contracts in a framework of Aristotelian ethics. This observation, the main claim of the paper, is justified on the basis of results from the Ultimatum Game and is analysed within a framework of Pragmatic philosophy. The analysis leads to the explanatory hypothesis that markets are centres of communicative action with reciprocity as a rule of discourse. The purpose of the paper is to reorientate financial economics to emphasise the objectives of cooperation and social cohesion and to this end, we offer specific policy advice

Pattern changes in determinants of Chinese emissions

Chinese economy has been recovering slowly from the global financial crisis, but it cannot achieve the same rapid development of the pre-recession period. Instead, the country has entered a new phase of economic development – a "new normal". We use a structural decomposition analysis (SDA) and environmental input-output analysis (IOA) to estimate the determinants of China's carbon emission changes during 2005-2012. China's imports are linked to a global multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model based on the Global Trade and Analysis Project (GTAP) database to calculate the embodied CO2 emissions in imports. We find that the global financial crisis has affected the drivers of China's carbon emissions growth. From 2007 to 2010, the CO2 emissions induced by China's exports dropped, whereas emissions induced by capital formation grew rapidly. In the "new normal", the strongest factors that offset CO2 emissions have shifted from efficiency gains to structural upgrading. Efficiency was the strongest factor offsetting China's CO2 emissions before 2010 but drove a 1.4% increase in emissions in the period 2010-2012. By contrast, production structure and consumption patterns caused a 2.6% and 1.3% decrease, respectively, in China's carbon emissions from 2010 to 2012. In addition, China tends to shift gradually from an investment to a consumption-driven economy. The proportion of CO2 emissions induced by consumption had a declining trend before 2010 but grew from 28.6% to 29.1% during 2010-2012

A review of estimating population exposure to sea-level rise and the relevance for migration

This review analyses global or near-global estimates of population exposure to sea-level rise (SLR) and related hazards, followed by critically examining subsequent estimates of population migration due to this exposure. Our review identified 33 publications that provide global or near-global estimates of population exposure to SLR and associated hazards. They fall into three main categories of exposure, based on definitions in the publications: (i) the population impacted by specified levels of SLR; (ii) the number of people living in floodplains that are subject to coastal flood events with a specific return period; and (iii) the population living in low-elevation coastal zones. Twenty of these 33 publications discuss connections between population migration and SLR. In our analysis of the exposure and migration data, we consider datasets, analytical methods, and the challenges of estimating exposure to SLR followed by potential human migration. We underscore the complex connections among SLR, exposure to its impacts, and migration. Human mobility to and from coastal areas is shaped by diverse socioeconomic, demographic, institutional, and political factors; there may be 'trapped' populations as well as those who prefer not to move for social, cultural, and political reasons; and migration can be delayed or forestalled through other adaptive measures. While global estimates of exposed and potentially migrating populations highlight the significant threats of SLR for populations living in low-lying areas at or near coastlines, further research is needed to understand the interactions among localised SLR and related hazards, social and political contexts, adaptation possibilities, and potential migration and (im)mobility decision-making