Clinical prediction models

Objective!#!The aim of this study was to evaluate the validity of a semiautomated volumetric approach (5DCNS+) for the detailed assessment of the fetal brain in a clinical setting.!##!Methods!#!Stored 3D volumes of > 1100 consecutive 2nd and 3rd trimester pregnancies (range 15-36 gestational weeks) were analyzed using a workflow-based volumetric approach 5DCNS+, enabling semiautomated reconstruction of diagnostic planes of the fetal central nervous system (CNS). All 3D data sets were examined for plane accuracy, the need for manual adjustment, and fetal-maternal characteristics affecting successful plane reconstruction. We also examined the potential of these standardized views to give additional information on proper gyration and sulci formation with advancing gestation.!##!Results!#!Based on our data, we were able to show that gestational age with an OR of 1.085 (95% CI 1.041-1.132) and maternal BMI with an OR of 1.022 (95% CI 1.041-1.054) only had a slight impact on the number of manual adjustments needed to reconstruct the complete volume, while maternal age and fetal position during acquisition (p = 0.260) did not have a significant effect. For the vast majority (958/1019; 94%) of volumes, using 5DCNS+ resulted in proper reconstruction of all nine diagnostic planes. In less than 1% (89/9171 planes) of volumes, the program failed to give sufficient information. 5DCNS+ was able to show the onset and changing appearance of CNS folding in a detailed and timely manner (lateral/parietooccipital sulcus formation seen in < 65% at 16-17 gestational weeks vs. 94.6% at 19 weeks).!##!Conclusions!#!The 5DCNS+ method provides a reliable algorithm to produce detailed, 3D volume-based assessments of fetal CNS integrity through a standardized reconstruction of the orthogonal diagnostic planes. The method further gives valid and reproducible information regarding ongoing cortical development retrieved from these volume sets that might aid in earlier in utero recognition of subtle structural CNS anomalies

Randomized, open-label, phase 1/2a study to determine the maximum tolerated dose of intraventricular sustained release nimodipine for subarachnoid hemorrhage (NEWTON [Nimodipine Microparticles to Enhance Recovery While Reducing Toxicity After Subarachnoid Hemorrhage])

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE—: We conducted a randomized, open-label, phase 1/2a, dose-escalation study of intraventricular sustained-release nimodipine (EG-1962) to determine safety, tolerability, pharmacokinetics, and clinical effects in aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage. METHODS—: Subjects with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage repaired by clipping or coiling were randomized to EG-1962 or enteral nimodipine. Subjects were World Federation of Neurological Surgeons grade 2 to 4 and had an external ventricular drain. Cohorts of 12 subjects received 100 to 1200 mg EG-1962 (9 per cohort) or enteral nimodipine (3 per cohort). The primary objective was to determine the maximum tolerated dose. RESULTS—: Fifty-four subjects in North America were randomized to EG-1962, and 18 subjects were randomized to enteral nimodipine. The maximum tolerated dose was 800 mg. One serious adverse event related to EG-1962 (400 mg) and 2 EG-1962 dose-limiting toxicities were without clinical sequelae. There was no EG-1962-related hypotension compared with 17% (3/18) with enteral nimodipine. Favorable outcome at 90 days on the extended Glasgow outcome scale occurred in 27/45 (60%, 95% confidence interval 46%–74%) EG-1962 subjects (5/9 with 100, 6/9 with 200, 7/9 with 400, 4/9 with 600, and 5/9 with 800 mg) and 5/18 (28%, 95% confidence interval 7%–48%, relative risk reduction of unfavorable outcome; 1.45, 95% confidence interval 1.04–2.03; P=0.027) enteral nimodipine subjects. EG-1962 reduced delayed cerebral ischemia (14/45 [31%] EG-1962 versus 11/18 [61%] enteral nimodipine) and rescue therapy (11/45 [24%] versus 10/18 [56%]). CONCLUSIONS—: EG-1962 was safe and tolerable to 800 mg, and in this, aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage population was associated with reduced delayed cerebral ischemia and rescue therapy. Overall, the rate of favorable clinical outcome was greater in the EG-1962-treated group. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION—: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01893190

Thermal Activation Rates in the Chirally Asymmetric Gross-Neveu Model

We address the problem of how to incorporate quantum effects into the calculation of finite-temperature decay rates for a metastable state of a quantum field theory. To do this, we consider the Gross-Neveu model with an explicit chiral symmetry breaking term, which allows for a metastable state. This theory can be shown to have a "critical bubble" which is a solution to the *exact* equations of motions (i.e. to all orders in perturbation theory, including all higher derivative, quantum and thermal corrections). This configuration mediates the thermal activation of the metastable vacuum to the true ground state, with a decay rate $\Gamma \propto \exp(-F_c/T)$, where $F_c$ is the free energy of the critical bubble. We then compare this exact calculation to various approximations that have been used in previous work. We find that these approximations all *overestimate* the activation rate. Furthermore, we study the effect of finite baryon number upon the bubble profile and the activation barriers. We find that beyond a critical baryon number the activation barriers disappear altogether.Comment: 20 pages, LaTeX, 9 figures using epsf.tex. Now auto-generates P

Rescue therapy for vasospasm following aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage:a propensity score-matched analysis with machine learning

OBJECTIVE Rescue therapies have been recommended for patients with angiographic vasospasm (aVSP) and delayed cerebral ischemia (DCI) following subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). However, there is little evidence from randomized clinical trials that these therapies are safe and effective. The primary aim of this study was to apply game theory-based methods in explainable machine learning (ML) and propensity score matching to determine if rescue therapy was associated with better 3-month outcomes following post-SAH aVSP and DCI. The authors also sought to use these explainable ML methods to identify patient populations that were more likely to receive rescue therapy and factors associated with better outcomes after rescue therapy. METHODS Data for patients with aVSP or DCI after SAH were obtained from 8 clinical trials and 1 observational study in the Subarachnoid Hemorrhage International Trialists repository. Gradient boosting ML models were constructed for each patient to predict the probability of receiving rescue therapy and the 3-month Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) score. Favorable outcome was defined as a 3-month GOS score of 4 or 5. Shapley Additive Explanation (SNAP) values were calculated for each patient-derived model to quantify feature importance and interaction effects. Variables with high S HAP importance in predicting rescue therapy administration were used in a propensity score-matched analysis of rescue therapy and 3-month GOS scores. RESULTS The authors identified 1532 patients with aVSP or DCI. Predictive, explainable ML models revealed that aneurysm characteristics and neurological complications, but not admission neurological scores, carried the highest relative importance rankings in predicting whether rescue therapy was administered. Younger age and absence of cerebral ischemia/ infarction were invariably linked to better rescue outcomes, whereas the other important predictors of outcome varied by rescue type (interventional or noninterventional). In a propensity score-matched analysis guided by SHAP-based variable selection, rescue therapy was associated with higher odds of 3-month GOS scores of 4-5 (OR 1.63, 95% CI 1.22-2.17). CONCLUSIONS Rescue therapy may increase the odds of good outcome in patients with aVSP or DCI after SAH. Given the strong association between cerebral ischemia/infarction and poor outcome, trials focusing on preventative or therapeutic interventions in these patients may be most able to demonstrate improvements in clinical outcomes. Insights developed from these models may be helpful for improving patient selection and trial design

Ab-Initio Surface Hopping and Multiphoton Ionisation Study of the Photodissociation Dynamics of CS2

New ab initio surface hopping simulations of the excited state dynamics of CS2 including spin-orbit coupling are compared to new experimental measurements using a multiphoton ionisation probe in a photoelectron spectroscopy experiment. The calculations highlight the importance of the triplet states even in the very early time dynamics of the dissociation process and allow us to unravel the signatures in the experimental spectrum, linking the observed changes to both electronic and nuclear degrees of freedom within the molecule

Does Presentation Format Influence Visual Size Discrimination in Tufted Capuchin Monkeys (Sapajus spp.)?

Most experimental paradigms to study visual cognition in humans and non-human species are based on discrimination tasks involving the choice between two or more visual stimuli. To this end, different types of stimuli and procedures for stimuli presentation are used, which highlights the necessity to compare data obtained with different methods. The present study assessed whether, and to what extent, capuchin monkeys\u27 ability to solve a size discrimination problem is influenced by the type of procedure used to present the problem. Capuchins\u27 ability to generalise knowledge across different tasks was also evaluated. We trained eight adult tufted capuchin monkeys to select the larger of two stimuli of the same shape and different sizes by using pairs of food items (Experiment 1), computer images (Experiment 1) and objects (Experiment 2). Our results indicated that monkeys achieved the learning criterion faster with food stimuli compared to both images and objects. They also required consistently fewer trials with objects than with images. Moreover, female capuchins had higher levels of acquisition accuracy with food stimuli than with images. Finally, capuchins did not immediately transfer the solution of the problem acquired in one task condition to the other conditions. Overall, these findings suggest that - even in relatively simple visual discrimination problems where a single perceptual dimension (i.e., size) has to be judged - learning speed strongly depends on the mode of presentation

Development and validation of outcome prediction models for aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage:the SAHIT multinational cohort study

Objective To develop and validate a set of practical prediction tools that reliably estimate the outcome of subarachnoid haemorrhage from ruptured intracranial aneurysms (SAH). Design Cohort study with logistic regression analysis to combine predictors and treatment modality. Setting Subarachnoid Haemorrhage International Trialists' (SAHIT) data repository, including randomised clinical trials, prospective observational studies, and hospital registries. Participants Researchers collaborated to pool datasets of prospective observational studies, hospital registries, and randomised clinical trials of SAH from multiple geographical regions to develop and validate clinical predicti

Vagus nerve stimulation in patients with Lennox-Gastaut syndrome: A meta-analysis

Objectives: Lennox-Gastaut syndrome (LGS) is among the most severe epileptic and developmental encephalopathies. A meta-analysis was performed to evaluate the effectiveness of adjunctive vagus nerve stimulation (VNS Therapy) in patients with LGS. Materials & Methods: PubMed database was queried (January 1997 to September 2018) to identify publications reporting on the efficacy of VNS Therapy in patients with LGS, with or without safety findings. Primary endpoint of the meta-analysis was the proportion of responders (≥50% reduction in seizure frequency). Random-effects analysis was used to calculate weighted mean estimates and confidence intervals. Heterogeneity was evaluated by statistical tests including I2. Results: Of 2752 citations reviewed, 17 articles (480 patients) were eligible including 10 retrospective studies and seven prospective studies. A random-effects model produced a pooled proportion of 54% (95% confidence intervals [CI]: 45%, 64%) of patients with LGS who responded to adjunctive VNS Therapy (p for heterogeneity <0.001, I2=72.9%). Per an exploratory analysis, the calculated incidence of serious adverse events associated with VNS Therapy was 9% (95% CI: 5%, 14%); the rate was higher than in long-term efficacy studies of heterogeneous cohorts with drug-resistant epilepsy and likely attributed to variable definitions of serious adverse events across studies. Conclusions: The meta-analysis of 480 patients with LGS suggests that 54% of patients responded to adjunctive VNS Therapy and that the treatment option was safe and well-tolerated. The response in patients with LGS was comparable to heterogeneous drug-resistant epilepsy populations. A clinical and surgical overview has been included to facilitate the use of VNS in LGS