Integrating modes of policy analysis and strategic management practice : requisite elements and dilemmas

There is a need to bring methods to bear on public problems that are inclusive, analytic, and quick. This paper describes the efforts of three pairs of academics working from three different though complementary theoretical foundations and intervention backgrounds (i.e., ways of working) who set out together to meet this challenge. Each of the three pairs had conducted dozens of interventions that had been regarded as successful or very successful by the client groups in dealing with complex policy and strategic problems. One approach focused on leadership issues and stakeholders, another on negotiating competitive strategic intent with attention to stakeholder responses, and the third on analysis of feedback ramifications in developing policies. This paper describes the 10 year longitudinal research project designed to address the above challenge. The important outcomes are reported: the requisite elements of a general integrated approach and the enduring puzzles and tensions that arose from seeking to design a wide-ranging multi-method approach

Formal modeling and analysis of cognitive agent behavior

From an external perspective, cognitive agent behavior can be described by specifying (temporal) correlations of a certain complexity between stimuli (input states) and (re)actions (output states) of the agent. From an internal perspective the agent’s dynamics can be characterized by direct (causal) temporal relations between internal and mental states of the agent. The latter type of specifications can be represented in a relatively simple, executable format, which enables different types of analysis of the agent’s behavior. In particular, simulations of the agent’s behavior under different (environmental) circumstances can be explored. Furthermore, by applying verification techniques, automated analysis of the consequences of the agent’s behavior can be carried out. To enable such types of analysis when only given an external behavioral specification, this has to be transformed first into some type of executable format. An automated procedure for such a transformation is proposed in this paper. The application of the transformation procedure is demonstrated for a number of cases, showing examples of the types of analysis as mentioned for different forms of behavior

Effectiveness of the AS03-Adjuvanted Vaccine against Pandemic Influenza Virus A/(H1N1) 2009 – A Comparison of Two Methods; Germany, 2009/10

During the autumn wave of the pandemic influenza virus A/(H1N1) 2009 (pIV) the German population was offered an AS03-adjuvanted vaccine. The authors compared results of two methods calculating the effectiveness of the vaccine (VE). The test-negative case-control method used data from virologic surveillance including influenza-positive and negative patients. An innovative case-series methodology explored data from all nationally reported laboratory-confirmed influenza cases. The proportion of reported cases occurring in vaccinees during an assumed unprotected phase after vaccination was compared with that occurring in vaccinees during their assumed protected phase. The test-negative case-control method included 1,749 pIV cases and 2,087 influenza test-negative individuals of whom 6 (0.3%) and 36 (1.7%), respectively, were vaccinated. The case series method included data from 73,280 cases. VE in the two methods was 79% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 35–93%; P = 0.007) and 87% (95% CI = 78–92%; P<0.001) for individuals less than 14 years of age and 70% (95% CI = −45%–94%, P = 0.13) and 74% (95% CI = 64–82%; P<0.001) for individuals above the age of 14. Both methods yielded similar VE in both age groups; and VE for the younger age group seemed to be higher

Protective measures and H5N1-seroprevalence among personnel tasked with bird collection during an outbreak of avian influenza A/H5N1 in wild birds, Ruegen, Germany, 2006

Background: In Germany, the first outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza A/H5N1 occurred among wild birds on the island of Ruegen between February and April 2006. The aim of this study was to investigate the use of recommended protective measures and to measure H5N1- seroprevalence among personnel tasked with bird collection. Methods: Inclusion criteria of our study were participation in collecting wild birds on Ruegen between February and March 2006. Study participants were asked to complete a questionnaire, and to provide blood samples. For evaluation of the use of protective measures, we developed a personal protective equipment (PPE)-score ranging between 0 and 9, where 9 corresponds to a consistent and complete use of PPE. Sera were tested by plaque neutralization (PN) and microneutralization (MN) assays. Reactive sera were reanalysed in the World Health Organization- Collaborating Centre (WHO-CC) using MN assay. Results: Of the eligible personnel, consisting of firemen, government workers and veterinarians, 61% (97/154) participated in the study. Of those, 13% reported having always worn all PPE-devices during bird collection (PPE-score: 9). Adherence differed between firemen (mean PPE-score: 6.6) and government workers (mean PPE-score: 4.5; p = 0.006). The proportion of personnel always adherent to wearing PPE was lowest for masks (19%). Of the participants, 18% had received seasonal influenza vaccination prior to the outbreak. There were no reports of influenza-like illness. Five sera initially H5-reactive by PN assay were negative by WHO-CC confirmatory testing. Conclusion: Gaps and variability in adherence demonstrate the risk of exposure to avian influenza under conditions of wild bird collection, and justify serological testing and regular training of task personnel

Validity of a novel computerized cognitive battery for mild cognitive impairment

BACKGROUND: The NeuroTrax Mindstreams computerized cognitive assessment system was designed for widespread clinical and research use in detecting mild cognitive impairment (MCI). However, the capability of Mindstreams tests to discriminate elderly with MCI from those who are cognitively healthy has yet to be evaluated. Moreover, the comparability between these tests and traditional neuropsychological tests in detecting MCI has not been examined. METHODS: A 2-center study was designed to assess discriminant validity of tests in the Mindstreams Mild Impairment Battery. Participants were 30 individuals diagnosed with MCI, 29 with mild Alzheimer's disease (AD), and 39 healthy elderly. Testing was with the Mindstreams battery and traditional neuropsychological tests. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to examine the ability of Mindstreams and traditional measures to discriminate those with MCI from cognitively healthy elderly. Between-group comparisons were made (Mann-Whitney U test) between MCI and healthy elderly and between MCI and mild AD groups. RESULTS: Mindstreams outcome parameters across multiple cognitive domains significantly discriminated among MCI and healthy elderly with considerable effect sizes (p < 0.05). Measures of memory, executive function, visual spatial skills, and verbal fluency discriminated best, and discriminability was at least comparable to that of traditional neuropsychological tests in these domains. CONCLUSIONS: Mindstreams tests are effective in detecting MCI, providing a comprehensive profile of cognitive function. Further, the enhanced precision and ease of use of these computerized tests make the NeuroTrax system a valuable clinical tool in the identification of elderly at high risk for dementia

The role of facemasks and hand hygiene in the prevention of influenza transmission in households: results from a cluster randomised trial; Berlin, Germany, 2009-2011

Background: Previous controlled studies on the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) - namely the use of facemasks and intensified hand hygiene - in preventing household transmission of influenza have not produced definitive results. We aimed to investigate efficacy, acceptability, and tolerability of NPI in households with influenza index patients. Methods: We conducted a cluster randomized controlled trial during the pandemic season 2009/10 and the ensuing influenza season 2010/11. We included households with an influenza positive index case in the absence of further respiratory illness within the preceding 14 days. Study arms were wearing a facemask and practicing intensified hand hygiene (MH group), wearing facemasks only (M group) and none of the two (control group). Main outcome measure was laboratory confirmed influenza infection in a household contact. We used daily questionnaires to examine adherence and tolerability of the interventions. Results: We recruited 84 households (30 control, 26 M and 28 MH households) with 82, 69 and 67 household contacts, respectively. In 2009/10 all 41 index cases had a influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 infection, in 2010/11 24 had an A (H1N1) pdm09 and 20 had a B infection. The total secondary attack rate was 16% (35/218). In intention-totreat analysis there was no statistically significant effect of the M and MH interventions on secondary infections. When analysing only households where intervention was implemented within 36 h after symptom onset of the index case, secondary infection in the pooled M and MH groups was significantly lower compared to the control group (adjusted odds ratio 0.16, 95% CI, 0.03-0.92). In a per-protocol analysis odds ratios were significantly reduced among participants of the M group (adjusted odds ratio, 0.30, 95% CI, 0.10-0.94). With the exception of MH index cases in 2010/11 adherence was good for adults and children, contacts and index cases. Conclusions: Results suggest that household transmission of influenza can be reduced by the use of NPI, such as facemasks and intensified hand hygiene, when implemented early and used diligently. Concerns about acceptability and tolerability of the interventions should not be a reason against their recommendation

Is There a Role for Adversariality in Teaching Critical Thinking?

Although there has been considerable recent debate on the topic of adversariality in argumentation, this debate has rarely found its way into work on critical thinking theory and instruction. This paper focuses on the implications of the adversariality debate for teaching critical thinking. Is there a role for adversarial argumentation in critical thinking instruction? Is there a way to incorporate the benefits of adversarial argumentation while mitigating the problems

Measurement of the inclusive and dijet cross-sections of b-jets in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The inclusive and dijet production cross-sections have been measured for jets containing b-hadrons (b-jets) in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of sqrt(s) = 7 TeV, using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements use data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 34 pb^-1. The b-jets are identified using either a lifetime-based method, where secondary decay vertices of b-hadrons in jets are reconstructed using information from the tracking detectors, or a muon-based method where the presence of a muon is used to identify semileptonic decays of b-hadrons inside jets. The inclusive b-jet cross-section is measured as a function of transverse momentum in the range 20 < pT < 400 GeV and rapidity in the range |y| < 2.1. The bbbar-dijet cross-section is measured as a function of the dijet invariant mass in the range 110 < m_jj < 760 GeV, the azimuthal angle difference between the two jets and the angular variable chi in two dijet mass regions. The results are compared with next-to-leading-order QCD predictions. Good agreement is observed between the measured cross-sections and the predictions obtained using POWHEG + Pythia. MC@NLO + Herwig shows good agreement with the measured bbbar-dijet cross-section. However, it does not reproduce the measured inclusive cross-section well, particularly for central b-jets with large transverse momenta.Comment: 10 pages plus author list (21 pages total), 8 figures, 1 table, final version published in European Physical Journal

Spatial and Temporal Trends of Global Pollination Benefit

Pollination is a well-studied and at the same time a threatened ecosystem service. A significant part of global crop production depends on or profits from pollination by animals. Using detailed information on global crop yields of 60 pollination dependent or profiting crops, we provide a map of global pollination benefits on a 5′ by 5′ latitude-longitude grid. The current spatial pattern of pollination benefits is only partly correlated with climate variables and the distribution of cropland. The resulting map of pollination benefits identifies hot spots of pollination benefits at sufficient detail to guide political decisions on where to protect pollination services by investing in structural diversity of land use. Additionally, we investigated the vulnerability of the national economies with respect to potential decline of pollination services as the portion of the (agricultural) economy depending on pollination benefits. While the general dependency of the agricultural economy on pollination seems to be stable from 1993 until 2009, we see increases in producer prices for pollination dependent crops, which we interpret as an early warning signal for a conflict between pollination service and other land uses at the global scale. Our spatially explicit analysis of global pollination benefit points to hot spots for the generation of pollination benefits and can serve as a base for further planning of land use, protection sites and agricultural policies for maintaining pollination services