Gravitational Instantons and Fluxes from M/F-theory on Calabi-Yau fourfolds

We compactify four-dimensional N=1 gauged supergravity theories on a circle including fluxes for shift-symmetric scalars. Four-dimensional Taub-NUT gravitational instantons universally correct the three-dimensional superpotential in the absence of fluxes. In the presence of fluxes these Taub-NUT instanton contributions are no longer gauge-invariant. Invariance can be restored by gauge instantons on top of Taub-NUT instantons. We establish the embedding of this scenario into M-theory. Circle fluxes and gaugings arise from a restricted class of M-theory four-form fluxes on a resolved Calabi-Yau fourfold. The M5-brane on the base of the elliptic fourfold dualizes into the universal Taub-NUT instanton. In the presence of fluxes this M5-brane is anomalous. We argue that anomaly free contributions arise from involved M5-brane geometries dual to gauge-instantons on top of Taub-NUT instantons. Adding a four-dimensional superpotential to the gravitational instanton corrections leads to three-dimensional Anti-de Sitter vacua at stabilized compactification radius. We comment on the possibility to uplift these M-theory vacua, and to tunnel to four-dimensional F-theory vacua.Comment: 47 pages, 2 figure

Taking the long view on short-run marginal emissions: how much carbon does flexibility and energy storage save?

Data availability statement: The data underlying this article is available on request from the corresponding author.Copyright © The Author(s) 2023. Grid-scale electricity storage will play a crucial role in the transition of power systems towards zero carbon. During the transition, investments need to be channeled towards technologies and locations that enable zero carbon operation in the long term, while also delivering security of supply and value for money. We discuss metrics and market signals that are needed to guide this transition towards clean, secure and affordable solutions. Paradoxically, carbon metrics play an important role, but become less effective as a decision tool once the system approaches zero carbon. We critically assess the role of marginal and average emission and question the allocation of marginal emissions in systems where combinations of renewables and storage deliver flexibility. We conclude that, for strategic investments, short-term market signals may not always deliver sufficiently fast or far-sighted outcomes and operational decisions need to consider the merit order of demand as well as supply.UKRI Prospering from the Energy Revolution’s Energy Superhub Oxford demonstrator and ‘Data-driven exploration of the carbon emissions impact of grid energy storage deployment and dispatch’ (DIGEST EP/W027321/1)

OC152: Prevalence of cancer and optimal cut‐off levels for mathematical models to distinguish between benign and malignant adnexal masses

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Evaluating the risk of ovarian cancer before surgery using the ADNEX model to differentiate between benign, borderline, early and advanced stage invasive, and secondary metastatic tumours: prospective multicentre diagnostic study

Objectives To develop a risk prediction model to preoperatively discriminate between benign, borderline, stage I invasive, stage II-IV invasive, and secondary metastatic ovarian tumours. Design Observational diagnostic study using prospectively collected clinical and ultrasound data. Setting 24 ultrasound centres in 10 countries. Participants Women with an ovarian (including para-ovarian and tubal) mass and who underwent a standardised ultrasound examination before surgery. The model was developed on 3506 patients recruited between 1999 and 2007, temporally validated on 2403 patients recruited between 2009 and 2012, and then updated on all 5909 patients. Main outcome measures Histological classification and surgical staging of the mass. Results The Assessment of Different NEoplasias in the adneXa (ADNEX) model contains three clinical and six ultrasound predictors: age, serum CA-125 level, type of centre (oncology centres v other hospitals), maximum diameter of lesion, proportion of solid tissue, more than 10 cyst locules, number of papillary projections, acoustic shadows, and ascites. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the classic discrimination between benign and malignant tumours was 0.94 (0.93 to 0.95) on temporal validation. The AUC was 0.85 for benign versus borderline, 0.92 for benign versus stage I cancer, 0.99 for benign versus stage II-IV cancer, and 0.95 for benign versus secondary metastatic. AUCs between malignant subtypes varied between 0.71 and 0.95, with an AUC of 0.75 for borderline versus stage I cancer and 0.82 for stage II-IV versus secondary metastatic. Calibration curves showed that the estimated risks were accurate. Conclusions The ADNEX model discriminates well between benign and malignant tumours and offers fair to excellent discrimination between four types of ovarian malignancy. The use of ADNEX has the potential to improve triage and management decisions and so reduce morbidity and mortality associated with adnexal pathology

Predicting the risk of malignancy in adnexal masses based on the Simple Rules from the International Ovarian Tumor Analysis group

BACKGROUND: Accurate methods to preoperatively characterize adnexal tumors are pivotal for optimal patient management. A recent metaanalysis concluded that the International Ovarian Tumor Analysis algorithms such as the Simple Rules are the best approaches to preoperatively classify adnexal masses as benign or malignant. OBJECTIVE: We sought to develop and validate a model to predict the risk of malignancy in adnexal masses using the ultrasound features in the Simple Rules. STUDY DESIGN: This was an international cross-sectional cohort study involving 22 oncology centers, referral centers for ultrasonography, and general hospitals. We included consecutive patients with an adnexal tumor who underwent a standardized transvaginal ultrasound examination and were selected for surgery. Data on 5020 patients were recorded in 3 phases from 2002 through 2012. The 5 Simple Rules features indicative of a benign tumor (B-features) and the 5 features indicative of malignancy (M-features) are based on the presence of ascites, tumor morphology, and degree of vascularity at ultrasonography. Gold standard was the histopathologic diagnosis of the adnexal mass (pathologist blinded to ultrasound findings). Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate the risk of malignancy based on the 10 ultrasound features and type of center. The diagnostic performance was evaluated by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (LR+), negative likelihood ratio (LR-), positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and calibration curves. RESULTS: Data on 4848 patients were analyzed. The malignancy rate was 43% (1402/3263) in oncology centers and 17% (263/1585) in other centers. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve on validation data was very similar in oncology centers (0.917; 95% confidence interval, 0.901-0.931) and other centers (0.916; 95% confidence interval, 0.873-0.945). Risk estimates showed good calibration. In all, 23% of patients in the validation data set had a very low estimated risk (<1%) and 48% had a high estimated risk (≥30%). For the 1% risk cutoff, sensitivity was 99.7%, specificity 33.7%, LR+ 1.5, LR- 0.010, PPV 44.8%, and NPV 98.9%. For the 30% risk cutoff, sensitivity was 89.0%, specificity 84.7%, LR+ 5.8, LR- 0.13, PPV 75.4%, and NPV 93.9%. CONCLUSION: Quantification of the risk of malignancy based on the Simple Rules has good diagnostic performance both in oncology centers and other centers. A simple classification based on these risk estimates may form the basis of a clinical management system. Patients with a high risk may benefit from surgery by a gynecological oncologist, while patients with a lower risk may be managed locally

Transvaginal ultrasound assessment of myometrial and cervical stroma invasion in women with endometrial cancer -interobserver reproducibility among ultrasound experts and gynaecologists

To assess interobserver reproducibility among ultrasound experts and gynaecologists in the prediction of deep myometrial- and cervical stroma invasion by transvaginal ultrasound in women with endometrial cancer

The new Checklist of the Italian Fauna: marine Mollusca.

The mollusc fauna of the Mediterranean Sea is still considered as the best-known marine mollusc fauna in the world. The previous modern checklists of marine Mollusca were produced by joint teams of amateurs and professionals. During the last years the Italian Society of Malacology (Società Italiana di Malacologia – S.I.M.) maintained an updated version of the Mediterranean checklist, that served as the backbone for the development of the new Italian checklist. According to the current version (updated on April 1st, 2021), 1,777 recognised species of marine molluscs are present in the Italian Economic Exclusive Zone, including also the Tyrrhenian coasts of Corsica and the continental shelf of the Maltese archipelago. The new checklist shows an increase of 17% of the species reported in the 1995 Checklist. This is largely (yet not solely) due to the new wave of studies based on Integrative Taxonomy approaches. A total of 135 species (7.6%) are strictly endemic to the Italian waters; 44 species (2.5%) are alien and correspond to the 28% of the Mediterranean alien marine molluscs. All eight extant molluscan classes are represented. The families represented in the Italian fauna are 307, an increase of 14.6% from the first checklist, partly due to new records and partly to new phylogenetic systematics. Compared with the whole Mediterranean malacofauna, the Italian component represents 71% in species and 61% in families, which makes it a very remarkable part of the Mediterranean fauna