Competitive Benchmarking: An IS Research Approach to Address Wicked Problems with Big Data and Analytics

Wicked problems like sustainable energy and financial market stability are societal challenges that arise from complex socio-technical systems in which numerous social, economic, political, and technical factors interact. Understanding and mitigating them requires research methods that scale beyond the traditional areas of inquiry of Information Systems (IS) “individuals, organizations, and markets” and that deliver solutions in addition to insights. We describe an approach to address these challenges through Competitive Benchmarking (CB), a novel research method that helps interdisciplinary research communities to tackle complex challenges of societal scale by using different types of data from a variety of sources such as usage data from customers, production patterns from producers, public policy and regulatory constraints, etc. for a given instantiation. Further, the CB platform generates data that can be used to improve operational strategies and judge the effectiveness of regulatory regimes and policies. We describe our experience applying CB to the sustainable energy challenge in the Power Trading Agent Competition (Power TAC) in which more than a dozen research groups from around the world jointly devise, benchmark, and improve IS-based solutions

Human Immunodeficiency Virus and Hepatitis C Virus Co-infection in Cameroon: Investigation of the Genetic Diversity and Virulent Circulating Strains

Background: RNA virus infections represent a significant cause of illness and death in vertebrates. Specifically in humans, RNA viruses are responsible for a wide range of acute, chronic, emerging and re-emerging infections. HIV and HCV rank as some of the most severe RNA viruse infections facing Africa. Methods: To determine genotypes and subtypes of HIV and HCV among co-infected patients in Cameroon, viral RNA was isolated from HIV/HCV co-infected individuals, in Douala, Cameroon. A total of 36 HIV/HCV co-infected isolates (22 from volunteer blood donors and 14 from people living with HIV/AIDS not yet on antiretroviral treatment) were analyzed using molecular biology techniques that involved RT-PCR, gene/TOPO cloning, DNA sequencing, and bioinformatics tools for sequence management and analysis. Epidemiological data were examined as well.Results: Results show that HIV strains isolated belong to the circulating recombinant forms CRF02_AG, whereas HCV isolates from Cameroon belong to genotypes 1, 2, and 4. The corresponding HCV subtypes investigated were 1a, 1b, 1c, 2a, 2c, 2k, and 4a. Subtypes 1a and 1b, most frequently found in developed countries, also circulate in Cameroon. Epidemiologic data show that HIV/HCV co-infected patients are older than HIVmono-infected patients.Conclusions: These results indicate that HIV/HCV co-infection represent a significant threat in Cameroon. There is evidence of genetic diversity of HIV and HCV; virulent hepatitis C virus subtypes 1a and 1b circulate in Cameroon. An epidemiological and molecular database on HIV and HCV is necessary for the development of further intervention in Cameroon as an imperative for monitoring disease progression.Key words: HIV; HCV; Co-infection ; Genotypes ; Virulent

Role of Occult and Post-acute Phase Replication in Protective Immunity Induced with a Novel Live Attenuated SIV Vaccine

In order to evaluate the role of persisting virus replication during occult phase immunisation in the live attenuated SIV vaccine model, a novel SIVmac239Δnef variant (SIVrtTA) genetically engineered to replicate in the presence of doxycycline was evaluated for its ability to protect against wild-type SIVmac239. Indian rhesus macaques were vaccinated either with SIVrtTA or with SIVmac239Δnef. Doxycycline was withdrawn from 4 of 8 SIVrtTA vaccinates before challenge with wild-type virus. Unvaccinated challenge controls exhibited ~107 peak plasma viral RNA copies/ml persisting beyond the acute phase. Six vaccinates, four SIVmac239Δnef and two SIVrtTA vaccinates exhibited complete protection, defined by lack of wild-type viraemia post-challenge and virus-specific PCR analysis of tissues recovered post-mortem, whereas six SIVrtTA vaccinates were protected from high levels of viraemia. Critically, the complete protection in two SIVrtTA vaccinates was associated with enhanced SIVrtTA replication in the immediate post-acute vaccination period but was independent of doxycycline status at the time of challenge. Mutations were identified in the LTR promoter region and rtTA gene that do not affect doxycycline-control but were associated with enhanced post-acute phase replication in protected vaccinates. High frequencies of total circulating CD8+T effector memory cells and a higher total frequency of SIV-specific CD8+ mono and polyfunctional T cells on the day of wild-type challenge were associated with complete protection but these parameters were not predictive of outcome when assessed 130 days after challenge. Moreover, challenge virus-specific Nef CD8+ polyfunctional T cell responses and antigen were detected in tissues post mortem in completely-protected macaques indicating post-challenge control of infection. Within the parameters of the study design, on-going occult-phase replication may not be absolutely required for protective immunity

Global, regional, and national burden of chronic kidney disease, 1990–2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Health system planning requires careful assessment of chronic kidney disease (CKD) epidemiology, but data for morbidity and mortality of this disease are scarce or non-existent in many countries. We estimated the global, regional, and national burden of CKD, as well as the burden of cardiovascular disease and gout attributable to impaired kidney function, for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017. We use the term CKD to refer to the morbidity and mortality that can be directly attributed to all stages of CKD, and we use the term impaired kidney function to refer to the additional risk of CKD from cardiovascular disease and gout. Methods The main data sources we used were published literature, vital registration systems, end-stage kidney disease registries, and household surveys. Estimates of CKD burden were produced using a Cause of Death Ensemble model and a Bayesian meta-regression analytical tool, and included incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, mortality, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). A comparative risk assessment approach was used to estimate the proportion of cardiovascular diseases and gout burden attributable to impaired kidney function. Findings Globally, in 2017, 1·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·2 to 1·3) people died from CKD. The global all-age mortality rate from CKD increased 41·5% (95% UI 35·2 to 46·5) between 1990 and 2017, although there was no significant change in the age-standardised mortality rate (2·8%, −1·5 to 6·3). In 2017, 697·5 million (95% UI 649·2 to 752·0) cases of all-stage CKD were recorded, for a global prevalence of 9·1% (8·5 to 9·8). The global all-age prevalence of CKD increased 29·3% (95% UI 26·4 to 32·6) since 1990, whereas the age-standardised prevalence remained stable (1·2%, −1·1 to 3·5). CKD resulted in 35·8 million (95% UI 33·7 to 38·0) DALYs in 2017, with diabetic nephropathy accounting for almost a third of DALYs. Most of the burden of CKD was concentrated in the three lowest quintiles of Socio-demographic Index (SDI). In several regions, particularly Oceania, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America, the burden of CKD was much higher than expected for the level of development, whereas the disease burden in western, eastern, and central sub-Saharan Africa, east Asia, south Asia, central and eastern Europe, Australasia, and western Europe was lower than expected. 1·4 million (95% UI 1·2 to 1·6) cardiovascular disease-related deaths and 25·3 million (22·2 to 28·9) cardiovascular disease DALYs were attributable to impaired kidney function. Interpretation Kidney disease has a major effect on global health, both as a direct cause of global morbidity and mortality and as an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease. CKD is largely preventable and treatable and deserves greater attention in global health policy decision making, particularly in locations with low and middle SDI

The effects of ProAlgaZyme novel algae infusion on metabolic syndrome and markers of cardiovascular health

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Metabolic Syndrome, or Syndrome X, is characterized by a set of metabolic and lipid imbalances that greatly increases the risk of developing diabetes and cardiovascular disease. The syndrome is highly prevalent in the United States and worldwide, and treatments are in high demand. ProAlgaZyme, a novel and proprietary freshwater algae infusion in purified water, has been the subject of several animal studies and has demonstrated low toxicity even with chronic administration at elevated doses. The infusion has been used historically for the treatment of several inflammatory and immune disorders in humans and is considered well-tolerated. Here, the infusion is evaluated for its effects on the cardiovascular risk factors present in metabolic syndrome in a randomized double-blind placebo-controlled study involving 60 overweight and obese persons, ages 25–60. All participants received four daily oral doses (1 fl oz) of ProAlgaZyme (N = 22) or water placebo (N = 30) for a total of 10 weeks, and were encouraged to maintain their normal levels of physical activity. Blood sampling and anthropometric measurements were taken at the beginning of the study period and after 4, 8 and 10 weeks of treatment. Eight participants did not complete the study.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>ProAlgaZyme brought about statistically significant (p < 0.001) reductions in the following: weight, body fat, total cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol, triglycerides, C-reactive protein and fasting blood glucose levels, accompanied by a significant (p < 0.001) increase in HDL-cholesterol levels over the 10-week study period. The infusion was well-tolerated and no side effects were noted.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>ProAlgaZyme (4 fl oz daily) consumption resulted in significant reductions in weight and blood glucose levels, while significantly improving serum lipid profiles and reducing markers of inflammation, thus improving cardiovascular risk factors in overweight and obese subjects over a course of 10 weeks with an absence of adverse side effects.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>US ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00489333</p

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

Background Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980–2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. Methods We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package—a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Findings Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87–2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91–1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79–3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63–2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8–39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. Interpretation Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact

Temperature-dependent phenology of the parasitoid Fopius arisanus on the host Bactrocera dorsalis

Fopius arisanus (Sonan), an egg-pupal parasitoid of numerous fruit fly species, was recently introduced into Africa for the control of the Oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel). In this study, life-table data of F. arisanus were generated under laboratory conditions at six constant temperatures (15, 20, 25, 30, 28 and 35&nbsp;°C; 75% RH, L12:D12 photoperiod) and under variable conditions in a screenhouse on B. dorsalis. Several non-linear functions were fitted to model species development, mortality, longevity and oviposition using the Insect Life Cycle Modeling (ILCYM) software. The established phenology models were stochastically simulated at variable temperatures to estimate the life table parameters. Fopius arisanus completed development from egg to adult at all the temperatures tested except at 35&nbsp;°C. Mean developmental time from egg to adult was inversely proportional to the temperature. The minimum temperature threshold (Tmin) from egg to adult was 8.15&nbsp;°C, while the maximum temperature threshold (Tmax) was estimated at 34.2&nbsp;°C. The optimal temperature for immature stages survival was predicted for 20-30&nbsp;°C. The optimum fecundity estimated was 251 eggs/female at 22&nbsp;°C. Following the stochastic simulations under natural conditions of the selected agro-ecological zones, it appears that the Humid Forest with Bimodal Rainfall provides a suitable thermal condition for potential population growth of F. arisanus. The present study shows the importance of temperature on the demographic parameters of F. arisanus. Implications of present findings on the biological control of B. dorsalis under climate change scenarios is discussed