Protective Efficacy of Menthol Propylene Glycol Carbonate Compared to N, N-diethyl-Methylbenzamide Against Mosquito Bites in Northern Tanzania.

The reduction of malaria parasite transmission by preventing human-vector contact is critical in lowering disease transmission and its outcomes. This underscores the need for effective and long lasting arthropod/insect repellents. Despite the reduction in malaria transmission and outcomes in Tanzania, personal protection against mosquito bites is still not well investigated. This study sought to determine the efficacy of menthol propylene glycol carbonate (MR08), Ocimum suave as compared to the gold standard repellent N, N-diethyl-methylbenzamide (DEET), either as a single dose or in combination (blend), both in the laboratory and in the field against Anopheles gambiae s.l and Culex quinquefasciatus. In the laboratory evaluations, repellents were applied on one arm while the other arm of the same individual was treated with a base cream. Each arm was separately exposed in cages with unfed female mosquitoes. Repellents were evaluated either as a single dose or as a blend. Efficacy of each repellent was determined by the number of mosquitoes that landed and fed on treated arms as compared to the control or among them. In the field, evaluations were performed by human landing catches at hourly intervals from 18:00  hr to 01:00  hr. A total of 2,442 mosquitoes were collected during field evaluations, of which 2,376 (97.30%) were An. gambiae s.l while 66 (2.70%) were Cx. quinquefaciatus. MR08 and DEET had comparatively similar protective efficacy ranging from 92% to 100 for both single compound and blends. These findings indicate that MR08 has a similar protective efficacy as DEET for personal protection outside bed nets when used singly and in blends. Because of the personal protection provided by MR08, DEET and blends as topical applicants in laboratory and field situations, these findings suggest that, these repellents could be used efficiently in the community to complement existing tools. Overall, Cx. quinquefasciatus were significantly prevented from blood feeding compared to An. gambiae s.l. The incorporation of these topical repellents for protection against insect bites can be of additional value in the absence or presence of IRS and ITNs coverage. However, a combination of both the physical (bed nets) and the repellent should be used in an integrated manner for maximum protection, especially before going to bed. Additional research is needed to develop repellents with longer duration of protection

The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis

Quantifying flood hazard is an essential component of resilience planning, emergency response, and mitigation, including insurance. Traditionally undertaken at catchment and national scales, recently, efforts have intensified to estimate flood risk globally to better allow consistent and equitable decision making. Global flood hazard models are now a practical reality, thanks to improvements in numerical algorithms, global datasets, computing power, and coupled modelling frameworks. Outputs of these models are vital for consistent quantification of global flood risk and in projecting the impacts of climate change. However, the urgency of these tasks means that outputs are being used as soon as they are made available and before such methods have been adequately tested. To address this, we compare multi-probability flood hazard maps for Africa from six global models and show wide variation in their flood hazard, economic loss and exposed population estimates, which has serious implications for model credibility. While there is around 30-40% agreement in flood extent, our results show that even at continental scales, there are significant differences in hazard magnitude and spatial pattern between models, notably in deltas, arid/semi-arid zones and wetlands. This study is an important step towards a better understanding of modelling global flood hazard, which is urgently required for both current risk and climate change projections

An affordable, quality-assured community-based system for high-resolution entomological surveillance of vector mosquitoes that reflects human malaria infection risk patterns.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: More sensitive and scalable entomological surveillance tools are required to monitor low levels of transmission that are increasingly common across the tropics, particularly where vector control has been successful. A large-scale larviciding programme in urban Dar es Salaam, Tanzania is supported by a community-based (CB) system for trapping adult mosquito densities to monitor programme performance. Methodology An intensive and extensive CB system for routine, longitudinal, programmatic surveillance of malaria vectors and other mosquitoes using the Ifakara Tent Trap (ITT-C) was developed in Urban Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and validated by comparison with quality assurance (QA) surveys using either ITT-C or human landing catches (HLC), as well as a cross-sectional survey of malaria parasite prevalence in the same housing compounds. RESULTS: Community-based ITT-C had much lower sensitivity per person-night of sampling than HLC (Relative Rate (RR) [95% Confidence Interval (CI)] = 0.079 [0.051, 0.121], P < 0.001 for Anopheles gambiae s.l. and 0.153 [0.137, 0.171], P < 0.001 for Culicines) but only moderately differed from QA surveys with the same trap (0.536 [0.406,0.617], P = 0.001 and 0.747 [0.677,0.824], P < 0.001, for An. gambiae or Culex respectively). Despite the poor sensitivity of the ITT per night of sampling, when CB-ITT was compared with QA-HLC, it proved at least comparably sensitive in absolute terms (171 versus 169 primary vectors caught) and cost-effective (153US$versus 187US$ per An. gambiae caught) because it allowed more spatially extensive and temporally intensive sampling (4284 versus 335 trap nights distributed over 615 versus 240 locations with a mean number of samples per year of 143 versus 141). Despite the very low vectors densities (Annual estimate of about 170 An gambiae s.l bites per person per year), CB-ITT was the only entomological predictor of parasite infection risk (Odds Ratio [95% CI] = 4.43[3.027,7. 454] per An. gambiae or Anopheles funestus caught per night, P =0.0373). Discussion and conclusion CB trapping approaches could be improved with more sensitive traps, but already offer a practical, safe and affordable system for routine programmatic mosquito surveillance and clusters could be distributed across entire countries by adapting the sample submission and quality assurance procedures accordingly

Social navigation

In this chapter we present one of the pioneer approaches in supporting users in navigating the complex information spaces, social navigation support. Social navigation support is inspired by natural tendencies of individuals to follow traces of each other in exploring the world, especially when dealing with uncertainties. In this chapter, we cover details on various approaches in implementing social navigation support in the information space as we also connect the concept to supporting theories. The first part of this chapter reviews related theories and introduces the design space of social navigation support through a series of example applications. The second part of the chapter discusses the common challenges in design and implementation of social navigation support, demonstrates how these challenges have been addressed, and reviews more recent direction of social navigation support. Furthermore, as social navigation support has been an inspirational approach to various other social information access approaches we discuss how social navigation support can be integrated with those approaches. We conclude with a review of evaluation methods for social navigation support and remarks about its current state

European Red List of Habitats Part 1. Marine habitats

The European Red List of Habitats provides an overview of the risk of collapse (degree of endangerment) of marine, terrestrial and freshwater habitats in the European Union (EU28) and adjacent regions (EU28+), based on a consistent set of categories and criteria, and detailed data and expert knowledge from involved countries1. A total of 257 benthic marine habitat types were assessed. In total, 19% (EU28) and 18% (EU28+) of the evaluated habitats were assessed as threatened in categories Critically Endangered, Endangered and Vulnerable. An additional 12% were Near Threatened in the EU28 and 11% in the EU28+. These figures are approximately doubled if Data Deficient habitats are excluded. The percentage of threatened habitat types differs across the regional seas. The highest proportion of threatened habitats in the EU28 was found in the Mediterranean Sea (32%), followed by the North-East Atlantic (23%), the Black Sea (13%) and then the Baltic Sea (8%). There was a similar pattern in the EU28+. The most frequently cited pressures and threats were similar across the four regional seas: pollution (eutrophication), biological resource use other than agriculture or forestry (mainly fishing but also aquaculture), natural system modifications (e.g. dredging and sea defence works), urbanisation and climate change. Even for habitats where the assessment outcome was Data Deficient, the Red List assessment process has resulted in the compilation of a substantial body of useful information to support the conservation of marine habitats

An intercomparison of remote sensing river discharge estimation algorithms from measurements of river height, width, and slope

The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission planned for launch in 2020 will map river elevations and inundated area globally for rivers >100 m wide. In advance of this launch, we here evaluated the possibility of estimating discharge in ungauged rivers using synthetic, daily ‘‘remote sensing’’ measurements derived from hydraulic models corrupted with minimal observational errors. Five discharge algorithms were evaluated, as well as the median of the five, for 19 rivers spanning a range of hydraulic and geomorphic conditions. Reliance upon a priori information, and thus applicability to truly ungauged reaches, varied among algorithms: one algorithm employed only global limits on velocity and depth, while the other algorithms relied on globally available prior estimates of discharge. We found at least one algorithm able to estimate instantaneous discharge to within 35% relative root-mean-squared error (RRMSE) on 14/16 nonbraided rivers despite out-of-bank flows, multichannel planforms, and backwater effects. Moreover, we found RRMSE was often dominated by bias; the median standard deviation of relative residuals across the 16 nonbraided rivers was only 12.5%. SWOT discharge algorithm progress is therefore encouraging, yet future efforts should consider incorporating ancillary data or multialgorithm synergy to improve results

Consumption & class in evolutionary macroeconomics

This article contributes to the field of evolutionary macroeconomics by highlighting the dynamic interlinkages between micro-meso-macro with a Veblenian meso foundation in an agent-based macroeconomic model. Consumption is dependent on endogenously changing social class and signaling, such as bandwagon, Veblen and snob effects. In particular, we test the macroeconomic effects of this meso foundation in a generic agent-based model of a closed artificial economy. The model is stock-flow consistent and builds upon local decision heuristics of heterogeneous agents characterized by bounded rationality and satisficing behavior. These agents include a multitude of households (workers and capitalists), firms, banks as well as a capital goods firm, a government and a central bank. Simulation experiments indicate coevolutionary dynamics between signaling-by-consuming and firm specialization that eventually effect employment and consumer prices, as well as other macroeconomic aggregates

Developing a model of best practice for teams managing crisis in people with dementia: a consensus approach

BACKGROUND: Teams delivering crisis resolution services for people with dementia and their carers provide short-term interventions to prevent admission to acute care settings. There is great variation in these services across the UK. This article reports on a consensus process undertaken to devise a Best Practice Model and evaluation Tool for use with teams managing crisis in dementia. METHODS: The Best Practice Model and Tool were developed over a three stage process: (i) Evidence gathering and generation of candidate standards (systematic review and scoping survey, interviews and focus groups); (ii) Prioritisation and selection of standards (consultation groups, a consensus conference and modified Delphi process); (iii) Refining and operationalising standards (consultation group and field-testing). RESULTS: One hundred sixty-five candidate standards arose from the evidence gathering stage; were refined and reduced to 90 through a consultation group exercise; and then reduced to 50 during the consensus conference and weighted using a modified Delphi process. Standards were then operationalised through a clinical consultation group and field-tested with 11 crisis teams and 5 non-crisis teams. Scores ranged from 48 to 92/100. The median score for the crisis teams was 74.5 (range 67-92), and the median score for non-crisis teams was 60 (range 48-72). CONCLUSIONS: With further psychometric testing, this Best Practice Model and Tool will be ideal for the planning, improvement and national benchmarking of teams managing dementia crises in the future

Development of the Global Width Database for Large Rivers

River width is a fundamental parameter of river hydrodynamic simulations, but no global-scale river width database based on observed water bodies has yet been developed. Here we present a new algorithm that automatically calculates river width from satellite-based water masks and flow direction maps. The Global Width Database for Large Rivers (GWD-LR) is developed by applying the algorithm to the SRTM Water Body Database and the HydroSHEDS flow direction map. Both bank-to-bank river width and effective river width excluding islands are calculated for river channels between 60S and 60N. The effective river width of GWD-LR is compared with existing river width databases for the Congo and Mississippi Rivers. The effective river width of the GWD-LR is slightly narrower compared to the existing databases, but the relative difference is within ±20% for most river channels. As the river width of the GWD-LR is calculated along the river channels of the HydroSHEDS flow direction map, it is relatively straightforward to apply the GWD-LR to global- and continental-scale river modeling

Predicting the exposure of diving grey seals to shipping noise.

There is high spatial overlap between grey seals and shipping traffic, and the functional hearing range of grey seals indicates sensitivity to underwater noise emitted by ships. However, there is still very little data regarding the exposure of grey seals to shipping noise, constraining effective policy decisions. Particularly, there are few predictions that consider the at-sea movement of seals. Consequently, this study aimed to predict the exposure of adult grey seals and pups to shipping noise along a three-dimensional movement track, and assess the influence of shipping characteristics on sound exposure levels. Using ship location data, a ship source model, and the acoustic propagation model, RAMSurf, this study estimated weighted 24-h sound exposure levels (10-1000 Hz) (SELw). Median predicted 24-h SELw was 128 and 142 dB re 1 μPa2s for the pups and adults, respectively. The predicted exposure of seals to shipping noise did not exceed best evidence thresholds for temporary threshold shift. Exposure was mediated by the number of ships, ship source level, the distance between seals and ships, and the at-sea behaviour of the seals. The results can inform regulatory planning related to anthropogenic pressures on seal populations