Interpretation of Plasticity Effects Using the CJP Crack Tip Field Model

This paper will outline the development of a model of crack tip fields that represents an innovation in incorporate the influences on crack tip displacement and stress fields of the zone of local plasticity that envelops a growing fatigue crack. The model uses assumed distributions of elastic stresses induced at the elastic-plastic boundary via wake contact and compatibility requirements, and defines a set of modified elastic stress intensity factors to characterise the crack stress or displacement tip field. In particular, recent work will be presented that compares the interpretation of plasticity-induced shielding obtained from trends observed in KR and KF with values of so-called ‘crack closure’ obtained via traditional strain gauge determination.</jats:p

A922 Sequential measurement of 1 hour creatinine clearance (1-CRCL) in critically ill patients at risk of acute kidney injury (AKI)

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Evaluation of appendicitis risk prediction models in adults with suspected appendicitis

Background Appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency worldwide, but its diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to determine whether existing risk prediction models can reliably identify patients presenting to hospital in the UK with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain who are at low risk of appendicitis. Methods A systematic search was completed to identify all existing appendicitis risk prediction models. Models were validated using UK data from an international prospective cohort study that captured consecutive patients aged 16–45 years presenting to hospital with acute RIF in March to June 2017. The main outcome was best achievable model specificity (proportion of patients who did not have appendicitis correctly classified as low risk) whilst maintaining a failure rate below 5 per cent (proportion of patients identified as low risk who actually had appendicitis). Results Some 5345 patients across 154 UK hospitals were identified, of which two‐thirds (3613 of 5345, 67·6 per cent) were women. Women were more than twice as likely to undergo surgery with removal of a histologically normal appendix (272 of 964, 28·2 per cent) than men (120 of 993, 12·1 per cent) (relative risk 2·33, 95 per cent c.i. 1·92 to 2·84; P < 0·001). Of 15 validated risk prediction models, the Adult Appendicitis Score performed best (cut‐off score 8 or less, specificity 63·1 per cent, failure rate 3·7 per cent). The Appendicitis Inflammatory Response Score performed best for men (cut‐off score 2 or less, specificity 24·7 per cent, failure rate 2·4 per cent). Conclusion Women in the UK had a disproportionate risk of admission without surgical intervention and had high rates of normal appendicectomy. Risk prediction models to support shared decision‐making by identifying adults in the UK at low risk of appendicitis were identified

Human Brucellosis in Northwest Ecuador: Typifying Brucella spp., Seroprevalence, and Associated Risk Factors

Human brucellosis in Ecuador is underreported and based only on passive surveillance. Since 2008, brucellosis was removed from the list of communicable diseases in the country. Until now, the true human brucellosis picture has not yet been determined. The aim of this study was to determine the seroprevalence of the disease, identify risk factors associated with brucellosis seropositivity in humans, and isolate circulating strains of Brucella spp. in the northwestern part of Ecuador. Between 2006 and 2008, a large transect survey was conducted, based on blood sampling of people from the northwestern part of Ecuador (n=3733) together with an epidemiological inquiry. On the basis of three diagnostic tests used in parallel, the overall seroprevalence was estimated as 1.88% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.48-2.38). Based on a multivariable random effects logistic regression analysis, the main risk factors associated with human brucellosis seropositivity were contact with livestock (odds ratio [OR]=3.0; CI 1.25-7.08), consumption of fetus and placenta (OR=2.5; CI 1.18-5.22), and involvement in activities at risk for brucellosis infection (OR=1.8; CI 1.00-3.35). Noticeable variation in brucellosis seropositivity among humans within cantons was observed. The circulating strain was Brucella abortus biotype 4. This study emphasized that contact with livestock, consumption of fetus and placenta, and occupational hazard group were all significant risk factors for the transmission of brucellosis among individuals in the northwestern part of Ecuador. Alongside encouraging the launching of educational campaigns against brucellosis, especially in rural areas where 36% of the population lives, controlling this zoonotic disease in animals will directly benefit its prevention in humans, especially because there is no safe and efficacious vaccine against brucellosis in humans

ESICM LIVES 2016: part two : Milan, Italy. 1-5 October 2016.

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The impact of surgical delay on resectability of colorectal cancer: An international prospective cohort study

AimThe SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has provided a unique opportunity to explore the impact of surgical delays on cancer resectability. This study aimed to compare resectability for colorectal cancer patients undergoing delayed versus non-delayed surgery.MethodsThis was an international prospective cohort study of consecutive colorectal cancer patients with a decision for curative surgery (January-April 2020). Surgical delay was defined as an operation taking place more than 4 weeks after treatment decision, in a patient who did not receive neoadjuvant therapy. A subgroup analysis explored the effects of delay in elective patients only. The impact of longer delays was explored in a sensitivity analysis. The primary outcome was complete resection, defined as curative resection with an R0 margin.ResultsOverall, 5453 patients from 304 hospitals in 47 countries were included, of whom 6.6% (358/5453) did not receive their planned operation. Of the 4304 operated patients without neoadjuvant therapy, 40.5% (1744/4304) were delayed beyond 4 weeks. Delayed patients were more likely to be older, men, more comorbid, have higher body mass index and have rectal cancer and early stage disease. Delayed patients had higher unadjusted rates of complete resection (93.7% vs. 91.9%, P = 0.032) and lower rates of emergency surgery (4.5% vs. 22.5%, P ConclusionOne in 15 colorectal cancer patients did not receive their planned operation during the first wave of COVID-19. Surgical delay did not appear to compromise resectability, raising the hypothesis that any reduction in long-term survival attributable to delays is likely to be due to micro-metastatic disease