52 research outputs found
Large-scale features of Pliocene climate: results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project
Climate and environments of the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264 to 3.025 Ma) have been extensively studied. Whilst numerical models have shed light on the nature of climate at the time, uncertainties in their predictions have not been systematically examined. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project quantifies uncertainties in model outputs through a coordinated multi-model and multi-model/data intercomparison. Whilst commonalities in model outputs for the Pliocene are clearly evident, we show substantial variation in the sensitivity of models to the implementation of Pliocene boundary conditions. Models appear able to reproduce many regional changes in temperature reconstructed from geological proxies. However, data/model comparison highlights that models potentially underestimate polar amplification. To assert this conclusion with greater confidence, limitations in the time-averaged proxy data currently available must be addressed. Furthermore, sensitivity tests exploring the known unknowns in modelling Pliocene climate specifically relevant to the high latitudes are essential (e.g. palaeogeography, gateways, orbital forcing and trace gasses). Estimates of longer-term sensitivity to CO2 (also known as Earth System Sensitivity; ESS), support previous work suggesting that ESS is greater than Climate Sensitivity (CS), and suggest that the ratio of ESS to CS is between 1 and 2, with a "best" estimate of 1.5
Drivers and mechanisms for enhanced summer monsoon precipitation over East Asia during the mid-Pliocene in the IPSL-CM5A
Mid-Pliocene Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation simulated in PlioMIP2
In the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2), coupled climate models have been used to simulate an interglacial climate during the mid-Piacenzian warm period (mPWP; 3.264 to 3.025âMa). Here, we compare the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), poleward ocean heat transport and sea surface warming in the Atlantic simulated with these models. In PlioMIP2, all models simulate an intensified mid-Pliocene AMOC. However, there is no consistent response in the simulated Atlantic ocean heat transport nor in the depth of the Atlantic overturning cell. The models show a large spread in the simulated AMOC maximum, the Atlantic ocean heat transport and the surface warming in the North Atlantic. Although a few models simulate a surface warming of âŒâ8â12ââC in the North Atlantic, similar to the reconstruction from Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) version 4, most models appear to underestimate this warming. The large model spread and modelâdata discrepancies in the PlioMIP2 ensemble do not support the hypothesis that an intensification of the AMOC, together with an increase in northward ocean heat transport, is the dominant mechanism for the mid-Pliocene warm climate over the North Atlantic
Unraveling the mechanisms and implications of a stronger mid-Pliocene Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in PlioMIP2
The mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264-3.025 Ma) is the most recent geological period in which the atmospheric CO2 concentration was approximately equal to the concentration we measure today (ca. 400 ppm). Sea surface temperature (SST) proxies indicate above-average warming over the North Atlantic in the mid-Pliocene with respect to the pre-industrial period, which may be linked to an intensified Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Earlier results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) show that the ensemble simulates a stronger AMOC in the mid-Pliocene than in the pre-industrial. However, no consistent relationship between the stronger mid-Pliocene AMOC and either the Atlantic northward ocean heat transport (OHT) or average North Atlantic SSTs has been found. In this study, we look further into the drivers and consequences of a stronger AMOC in mid-Pliocene compared to pre-industrial simulations in PlioMIP2. We find that all model simulations with a closed Bering Strait and Canadian Archipelago show reduced freshwater transport from the Arctic Ocean into the North Atlantic. This contributes to an increase in salinity in the subpolar North Atlantic and Labrador Sea that can be linked to the stronger AMOC in the mid-Pliocene. To investigate the dynamics behind the ensemble's variable response of the total Atlantic OHT to the stronger AMOC, we separate the Atlantic OHT into two components associated with either the overturning circulation or the wind-driven gyre circulation. While the ensemble mean of the overturning component is increased significantly in magnitude in the mid-Pliocene, it is partly compensated by a reduction in the gyre component in the northern subtropical gyre region. This indicates that the lack of relationship between the total OHT and AMOC is due to changes in OHT by the subtropical gyre. The overturning and gyre components should therefore be considered separately to gain a more complete understanding of the OHT response to a stronger mid-Pliocene AMOC. In addition, we show that the AMOC exerts a stronger influence on North Atlantic SSTs in the mid-Pliocene than in the pre-industrial, providing a possible explanation for the improved agreement of the PlioMIP2 ensemble mean SSTs with reconstructions in the North Atlantic
Evaluation of Arctic warming in mid-Pliocene climate simulations
Palaeoclimate simulations improve our understanding of the climate, inform us about the performance of climate models in a different climate scenario, and help to identify robust features of the climate system. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), derived from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2).
The PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates Arctic (60â90ââN) annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) increases of 3.7 to 11.6ââC compared to the pre-industrial period, with a multi-model mean (MMM) increase of 7.2ââC. The Arctic warming amplification ratio relative to global SAT anomalies in the ensemble ranges from 1.8 to 3.1 (MMM is 2.3). Sea ice extent anomalies range from â3.0 to â10.4Ă106âkm2, with a MMM anomaly of â5.6Ă106âkm2, which constitutes a decrease of 53â% compared to the pre-industrial period. The majority (11 out of 16) of models simulate summer sea-ice-free conditions (â€1Ă106âkm2) in their mPWP simulation. The ensemble tends to underestimate SAT in the Arctic when compared to available reconstructions, although the degree of underestimation varies strongly between the simulations. The simulations with the highest Arctic SAT anomalies tend to match the proxy dataset in its current form better. The ensemble shows some agreement with reconstructions of sea ice, particularly with regard to seasonal sea ice. Large uncertainties limit the confidence that can be placed in the findings and the compatibility of the different proxy datasets. We show that while reducing uncertainties in the reconstructions could decrease the SAT dataâmodel discord substantially, further improvements are likely to be found in enhanced boundary conditions or model physics. Lastly, we compare the Arctic warming in the mPWP to projections of future Arctic warming and find that the PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates greater Arctic amplification than CMIP5 future climate simulations and an increase instead of a decrease in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength compared to pre-industrial period. The results highlight the importance of slow feedbacks in equilibrium climate simulations, and that caution must be taken when using simulations of the mPWP as an analogue for future climate change
Downscaling precipitation in the Sahara-Sahelian region during the Holocene in order to decipher the paleo-variations of Lake Chad
International audienceIn order to understand the paleo-variability of Saharo-Sahelian paleoprecipitation, which is recorded in the sediments of Lake Chad situated in central Sahel, we use a modelling chain going from global climate to basin-scale hydrological model. Namely, climate model outputs for the Holocene, starting with the mid-Holocene (6ka) available from the IPSL-CM5 global climate model are statistically downscaled with the General Additive Model approach (Levavasseur et al., 2011), then used to feed the LPJmL model (Bondeau et al., 2007) which calculates the equilibrium vegetation and runoff. Climate and runoff are then given to the dynamic routing scheme HYDRA (Coe et al., 2000) in order to calculate the paleo river network and paleo extent of Lake Chad. The results at each step are compared with reconstructions derived from continental proxies on the regional scale in order to assess the robustness of the results. For the mid-Holocene, the downscaled precipitation matches very well precipitation estimations derived from lacustrine pollen data. For the historical period, the LPJmL simulated runoff averaged over the Chad basin depicts the same trend than observations of Lake Chad water level, but the absolute water level is overestimated in HYDRA, which can be attributed to humid biases both in LPJmL and HYDRA. Finally, we will investigate the relative changes in river network and Lake Chad extent between the present and the mid-Holocene
Downscaling precipitation in the Sahara-Sahelian region during the Holocene in order to decipher the paleo-variations of Lake Chad
International audienceIn order to understand the paleo-variability of Saharo-Sahelian paleoprecipitation, which is recorded in the sediments of Lake Chad situated in central Sahel, we use a modelling chain going from global climate to basin-scale hydrological model. Namely, climate model outputs for the Holocene, starting with the mid-Holocene (6ka) available from the IPSL-CM5 global climate model are statistically downscaled with the General Additive Model approach (Levavasseur et al., 2011), then used to feed the LPJmL model (Bondeau et al., 2007) which calculates the equilibrium vegetation and runoff. Climate and runoff are then given to the dynamic routing scheme HYDRA (Coe et al., 2000) in order to calculate the paleo river network and paleo extent of Lake Chad. The results at each step are compared with reconstructions derived from continental proxies on the regional scale in order to assess the robustness of the results. For the mid-Holocene, the downscaled precipitation matches very well precipitation estimations derived from lacustrine pollen data. For the historical period, the LPJmL simulated runoff averaged over the Chad basin depicts the same trend than observations of Lake Chad water level, but the absolute water level is overestimated in HYDRA, which can be attributed to humid biases both in LPJmL and HYDRA. Finally, we will investigate the relative changes in river network and Lake Chad extent between the present and the mid-Holocene
Downscaling precipitation in the Sahara-Sahelian region during the Holocene in order to decipher the paleo-variations of Lake Chad
International audienceIn order to understand the paleo-variability of Saharo-Sahelian paleoprecipitation, which is recorded in the sediments of Lake Chad situated in central Sahel, we use a modelling chain going from global climate to basin-scale hydrological model. Namely, climate model outputs for the Holocene, starting with the mid-Holocene (6ka) available from the IPSL-CM5 global climate model are statistically downscaled with the General Additive Model approach (Levavasseur et al., 2011), then used to feed the LPJmL model (Bondeau et al., 2007) which calculates the equilibrium vegetation and runoff. Climate and runoff are then given to the dynamic routing scheme HYDRA (Coe et al., 2000) in order to calculate the paleo river network and paleo extent of Lake Chad. The results at each step are compared with reconstructions derived from continental proxies on the regional scale in order to assess the robustness of the results. For the mid-Holocene, the downscaled precipitation matches very well precipitation estimations derived from lacustrine pollen data. For the historical period, the LPJmL simulated runoff averaged over the Chad basin depicts the same trend than observations of Lake Chad water level, but the absolute water level is overestimated in HYDRA, which can be attributed to humid biases both in LPJmL and HYDRA. Finally, we will investigate the relative changes in river network and Lake Chad extent between the present and the mid-Holocene
Downscaling precipitation in the Sahara-Sahelian region during the Holocene in order to decipher the paleo-variations of Lake Chad
International audienceIn order to understand the paleo-variability of Saharo-Sahelian paleoprecipitation, which is recorded in the sediments of Lake Chad situated in central Sahel, we use a modelling chain going from global climate to basin-scale hydrological model. Namely, climate model outputs for the Holocene, starting with the mid-Holocene (6ka) available from the IPSL-CM5 global climate model are statistically downscaled with the General Additive Model approach (Levavasseur et al., 2011), then used to feed the LPJmL model (Bondeau et al., 2007) which calculates the equilibrium vegetation and runoff. Climate and runoff are then given to the dynamic routing scheme HYDRA (Coe et al., 2000) in order to calculate the paleo river network and paleo extent of Lake Chad. The results at each step are compared with reconstructions derived from continental proxies on the regional scale in order to assess the robustness of the results. For the mid-Holocene, the downscaled precipitation matches very well precipitation estimations derived from lacustrine pollen data. For the historical period, the LPJmL simulated runoff averaged over the Chad basin depicts the same trend than observations of Lake Chad water level, but the absolute water level is overestimated in HYDRA, which can be attributed to humid biases both in LPJmL and HYDRA. Finally, we will investigate the relative changes in river network and Lake Chad extent between the present and the mid-Holocene
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