21st Century Projections of High Streamflow Events in the UK and Germany

Radiative effects of anthropogenic changes in atmospheric composition are expected to enhance the hydrological cycle leading to more frequent and intense floods. To explore if there will be an increased risk of river flooding in the future, 21st century projections under global warming scenarios of High Streamflow Events (HSEs) for UK and German rivers are carried out, using a model that statistically relates large-scale atmospheric predictors - 850 hPa Geopotential Height (GPH850) and Integrated Water Vapor Transport (IVT) - to the occurrence of HSEs in one or simultaneously in several streamflow gauges. Here, HSE is defined as the streamflow exceeding the 99th percentile of daily flowrate time series measured at streamflow gauges. For the common period 1960-2012, historical data from 57 streamflow gauges in UK and 61 streamflow gauges in Germany, as well as, reanalysis data of GPH850 and IVT fields, bounded from 90W to 70E and from 20N to 80N are used. The link between GPH850 configurations and HSEs, and more precisely, identification of the GPH850 states potentially able to generate HSEs, is performed by a combined Kohonen Networks (Self Organized Map, SOM) and Event Syncronization approach. Complex network and modularity methods are used to cluster streamflow gauges that share common GPH850 configurations. Then a model based on a conditional Poisson distribution, in which the parameter of the Poisson distribution is assumed to be a nonlinear function of GPH850 and IVT, allows for the identification of GPH850 state and threshold of IVT beyond which there is the HSE highest probability. Using that model, projections of 21st century changes in frequency of HSEs occurrence in UK and Germany are estimated using the simulated fields of GPH850 and IVT from selected GCMs belonging to the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Among the different GCMs, those are selected whose retrospective predictor fields have consistent statistics with the corresponding reanalysis data

A Combined Atmospheric Rivers and Geopotential Height Analysis for the Detection of High Streamflow Event Probability Occurrence in UK and Germany

The role of atmospheric rivers (ARs) in inducing High Streamflow Events (HSEs) in Europe has been confirmed by numerous studies. Here, we assume as HSEs the streamflows exceeding the 99th percentile of daily flowrate time series measured at streamflow gauges. Among the indicators of ARs are: the Integrated Water Vapor (IWV) and Integrated Water Vapor Transport (IVT). For both indicators the literature suggests thresholds in order to identify ARs. Furthermore, local thresholds of such indices are used to assess the occurrence of HSEs in a given region. Recent research on ARs still leaves room for open issues: 1) The literature is not unanimous in defining which of the two indicators is better. 2) The selection of the thresholds is based on subjective assessments. 3) The predictability of HSEs at the local scale associated with these indices seems to be weak and to exist only in the winter months. In order to address these issues, we propose an original methodology: (i) to choose between the two indicators which one is the most suitable for HSEs predictions; (ii) to select IWT and/or IVT (IVT/IWV) local thresholds in a more objective way; (iii) to implement an algorithm able to determine whether a IVT/IWV configuration is inducing HSEs, regardless of the season. In pursuing this goal, besides IWV and IVT fields, we introduce as further predictor the geopotential height at 850 hPa (GPH850) field, that implicitly contains information about the pattern of temperature, direction and intensity of the winds. In fact, the introduction of the GPH850 would help to improve the assessment of the occurrence of HSEs throughout the year. It is also plausible to hypothesize, that IVT/IWV local thresholds could vary in dependence of the GPH850 configuration. In this study, we propose a model to statistically relate these predictors, IVT/IWV and GPH850, to the simultaneous occurrence of HSEs in one or more streamflow gauges in UK and Germany. Historical data from 57 streamflow gauges in UK and 61 streamflow gauges in Germany, as well as reanalysis data of the 850 hPa geopotential fields bounded from 90W to 70E and from 20N to 80N are used. The common period is 1960 to 2012. The link between GPH850 and HSEs, and more precisely, the identification of the GPH850 states potentially able to generate HSEs is performed by a combined Kohonen Networks (Self Organized Map, SOM) and Event Syncronization approach. Complex network and modularity methods are used to cluster streamflow gauges that share common GPH850 configurations. Then a model based on a conditional Poisson distribution is carried out, in which the parameter of the Poisson distribution is assumed to be a nonlinear function of GPH850 state and IVT/ IWV. This model allows for the identification of the threshold of IVT/IWV beyond which there is the HSE highest probabilit

Novel stacking models for improved extreme rainfall predictions under climate change scenarios.

Future projections under global warming scenarios of local extreme precipitations by downscaling models is still open challenge. A number of downscaling statistical models have been proposed to link large scale atmospheric circulation features, as simulated by Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and/or Regional Circulation Models (RCMs), to the temporal and spatial distribution of local rainfalls. Despite the efforts, comparisons between simulations and observations show that statistical downscaling methods, although able to realistically reproduce most of the mean rainfall attributes as seasonal or monthly rainfall amount, fail to simulate extreme precipitation with acceptable accuracy. This is due to the difficulties to: (i) select the optimal set of atmospheric variables used as predictors; (ii) solve the non-linear dependencies that link the rains to the atmospheric variables; (iii) assess the temporal dependencies between wet and dry states. To overcome such criticalities, in order to improve extreme precipitation forecasting, in this study we introduce in rainfall downscaling a paradigm already known in other disciplines of data science: the "stacking models". Stacking models combine different simulations from multiple predictive models. According to this approach we used Random Forest, extreme gradient boosting and Non-homogeneous Hidden Markov Model (NHMM). The validation was performed first on the individual models, calibrating the parameters individually and evaluating them globally with a cross validation approach. The performance of the proposed stacking model is assessed by comparing the daily rainfall amount simulations with those obtained by a state-of-the-art NHMM model, in which the probability of the rainfall occurrence is just modeled using a logistic regression with parameters depending upon climatology variables. We show that the stacking model outperforms the latter model, especially in simulating the extreme precipitations. Furthermore, such performance improvement is obtained by using a minor number of atmospheric predictors. Once the downscaling model has been calibrated and validated, we evaluated changes of precipitation extremes under climate change scenarios. The simulations were performed using the variables obtained from a GCM, Community Climate System Model v4 - NCAR, whose scenario is defined by CMIP5 - RCP 8.5. To evaluate the confidence bands of the simulated rainfall it was used an ensemble of simulations obtained by running the latter GCM with different initial conditions. The Lazio region was chosen as a study case. The Lazio Region is located in Central Italy, whose hydrogeological features make it particularly vulnerable to eventual future changes of hydrological cycle such as those induced by climate change. The Mediterranean is made up of many of these vulnerable areas, which makes the application of the method to this case study of general interest

Projecting Changes in Tanzania Rainfall for the 21st century: Scenarios, Downscaling & Analysis

A Non-Homogeneous hidden Markov Model (NHMM) is developed using a 40-years record (1950-1990) of daily rainfall at eleven stations in Tanzania and re-analysis atmospheric fields of Temperature (T) at 1000 hPa, Geo Potential Height (GPH) at 1000 hPa, Meridional Winds (MW) and Zonal Winds (ZW) at 850 hPa, and Zonal Winds at the Equator(ZWE) from 10 to 1000 hPa. The NHMM is then used to predict future rainfall patterns under a global warming scenario (RCP8.5), using predictors from the CMCC-CMS simulations from 1950-2100. The model directly considers seasonality through changes in the driving variables thus addressing the question of how future changes in seasonality of precipitation can be modeled. The future downscaled simulations from NHMM, with predictors derived from the simulations of the CMCC-CMS CGM, in the worst conditions of global warming as simulated by RCP8.5 scenario, indicate that, Tanzania may be subjected to to a reduction of total annual rainfall; this reduction is concentrated in the wet seasons, OND, mainly as a consequence of decreasing of seasonal number of wet days. . Frequency and Intensity of extreme events don’t show any evident trend during the 21 century

Hazard Assessment from Storm Tides and Rainfall on a Tidal River Estuary

Here, we report on methods and results for a model-based flood hazard assessment we have conducted for the Hudson River from New York City to Troy/Albany at the head of tide. Our recent work showed that neglecting freshwater flows leads to underestimation of peak water levels at up-river sites and neglecting stratification (typical with two-dimensional modeling) leads to underestimation all along the Hudson. As a result, we use a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model and merge streamflows and storm tides from tropical and extratropical cyclones (TCs, ETCs), as well as wet extratropical cyclone (WETC) floods (e.g. freshets, rain-on-snow events). We validate the modeled flood levels and quantify error with comparisons to 76 historical events. A Bayesian statistical method is developed for tropical cyclone streamflows using historical data and consisting in the evaluation of (1) the peak discharge and its pdf as a function of TC characteristics, and (2) the temporal trend of the hydrograph as a function of temporal evolution of the cyclone track, its intensity and the response characteristics of the specific basin. A k-nearest-neighbors method is employed to determine the hydrograph shape. Out of sample validation tests demonstrate the effectiveness of the method. Thus, the combined effects of storm surge and runoff produced by tropical cyclones hitting the New York area can be included in flood hazard assessment. Results for the upper Hudson (Albany) suggest a dominance of WETCs, for the lower Hudson (at New York Harbor) a case where ETCs are dominant for shorter return periods and TCs are more important for longer return periods (over 150 years), and for the middle-Hudson (Poughkeepsie) a mix of all three flood events types is important. However, a possible low-bias for TC flood levels is inferred from a lower importance in the assessment results, versus historical event top-20 lists, and this will be further evaluated as these preliminary methods and results are finalized. Future funded work will quantify the influences of sea level rise and flood adaptation plans (e.g. surge barriers). It would also be valuable to examine how streamflows from tropical cyclones and wet cool-season storms will change, as this factor will dominate at upriver locations

Interactions in vivo between the Vif protein of HIV-1 and the precursor (Pr55GAG) of the virion nucleocapsid proteins

The abnormality of viral core structure seen in vif-defective HIV-1 grown in PBMCs has suggested a role for Vif in viral morphogenesis. Using an in vivo mammalian two-hybrid assay, the interaction between Vif and the precursor (Pr55GAG) of the virion nucleocapsid proteins has been analysed. This revealed the amino-terminal (aa 1–22) and central (aa 70–100) regions of Vif to be essential for its interaction with Pr55GAG, but deletion of the carboxy-terminal (aa 158–192) region of the protein had only a minor effect on its interaction. Initial deletion studies carried out on Pr55GAG showed that a 35-amino-acid region of the protein bridging the MA(p17)–CA(p24) junction was essential for its ability to interact with Vif. Site-directed mutagenesis of a conserved tryptophan (Trp21) near the amino terminus of Vif showed it to be important for the interaction with Pr55GAG. By contrast, mutagenesis of the highly conserved YLAL residues forming part of the BC-box motif, shown to be important in Vif promoting degradation of APOBEC3G/3F, had little or no effect on the Vif–Pr55GAG interaction

ALART: A novel lidar system for vegetation height retrieval from space

We propose a multi-kHz Single-Photon Counting (SPC) space LIDAR, exploiting low energy pulses with high repetition frequency (PRF). The high PRF allows one to overcome the low signal limitations, as many return shots can be collected from nearly the same scattering area. The ALART space instrument exhibits a multi-beam design, providing height retrieval over a wide area and terrain slope measurements. This novel technique, working with low SNRs, allows multiple beam generation with a single laser, limiting mass and power consumption. As the receiver has a certain probability to detect multiple photons from different levels of canopy, a histogram is constructed and used to retrieve the properties of the target tree, by means of a modal decomposition of the reconstructed waveform. A field demonstrator of the ALART space instrument is currently being developed by a European consortium led by cosine | measurement systems and funded by ESA under the TRP program. The demonstrator requirements have been derived to be representative of the target instrument and it will be tested in an equipped tower in woodland areas in the Netherlands. The employed detectors are state-of-the-art CMOS Single-Photon Avalanche Diode (SPAD) matrices with 1024 pixels. Each pixel is independently equipped with an integrated Time-to-Digital Converter (TDC), achieving a timing accuracy that is much lower than the SPAD dead time, resulting in a distance resolution in the centimeter range. The instrument emits nanosecond laser pulses with energy on the order of several J, at a PRF of ~ 10 kHz, and projects on ground a three-beams pattern. An extensive field measurement campaign will validate the employed technologies and algorithms for vegetation height retrieval

Beneficial autoimmunity at body surfaces – immune surveillance and rapid type 2 immunity regulate tissue homeostasis and cancer

Epithelial cells line body surface tissues and provide a physicochemical barrier to the external environment. Frequent microbial and non-microbial challenges such as those imposed by mechanical disruption, injury or exposure to noxious environmental substances including chemicals, carcinogens, ultraviolet-irradiation or toxins cause activation of epithelial cells with release of cytokines and chemokines as well as alterations in the expression of cell surface ligands. Such display of epithelial stress is rapidly sensed by tissue resident immunocytes, which can directly interact with self-moieties on epithelial cells and initiate both local and systemic immune responses. Epithelial cells are thus key drivers of immune surveillance at body surface tissues. However, epithelial cells have a propensity to drive type 2 immunity (rather than type 1) upon non-invasive challenge or stress – a type of immunity whose regulation and function still remain enigmatic. Here we review the induction and possible role of type 2 immunity in epithelial tissues and propose that rapid immune surveillance and type 2 immunity are key regulators of tissue homeostasis and carcinogenesis

Bortezomib modulates CHIT1 and YKL40 in monocyte-derived osteoclast and in myeloma cells

Osteolytic bone disease is a common manifestation of multiple myeloma (MM) that leads to progressive skeleton destruction and is the most severe cause of morbidity in MM patients.It results from increased osteolytic activity and decrease osteoblastic function. Activation of mammalian chitinases CHIT1 and YKL40 is associated with osteoclast (OCs) differentiation and bone digestion. In the current study, we investigated the effect of two Bortezomib’s concentration (BO) (2.5 nM and 5nM) on osteoclastogenesis by analyzing regulation of chitinase expression. OCs exposition to BO was able to inhibit the expression of different OCs markers such as RANK, CTSK, TRAP and MMP9. In addition BO-treatment reduced CHIT1 enzymatic activity and both CHIT1 and YKL40 mRNA expression levels and cytoplasmatic and secreted protein. Moreover, immunofluorescence evaluation of mature OCs showed that BO was able to translocate YKL40 into the nucleus, while CHIT1 remained into the cytoplasm. Since MM cell lines such as U266, SKM-M1 and MM1 showed high levels of CHIT1 activity, we analyzed bone resorption ability of U266 using dentin disc assay resorption pits. Silencing chitinase proteins in U266 cell line with specific siRNAs, resulted in pits number reduction on dentine discs. In conclusion, we showed that BO decreases osteoclastogenesis and reduces bone resorption in OCs and U266 cell line by modulating the chitinases CHIT1 and YKL40. These results indicate that chitinases may be a therapeutic target for bone disease in MM patients