Preface. Climate change impact on plant ecology

The variety and the number of ecological models is impressive, and several fields of exact sciences have been called upon to provide the technical and informatics tools that have made it possible to define their current and future developments. But even taking into consideration only a part of the ecosystem, such as the one assigned to primary production (first trophic level, photo-autotrophic compartment), our ability to simulate the processes that underlie carbon fixation in plants is limited by our current knowledge, determining a quantity of information or variability not explained by the model used, which underlies a sort of ‘Uncertainty Principle’ valid for the ecological sciences. The design of Nature and its state of apparent disorder at the various levels of hierarchical, spatial, and temporal scales is still far from being fully discovered. Although the word ‘uncertainty’ resonates widely in this paper, it can represent a very key source of information and the force that pushes us to try other ways to increase our level of knowledge and make our simulation and forecasting ability more and more accurate in a complex world

Nutrient scarcity as a selective pressure for mast seeding

Mast seeding is one of the most intriguing reproductive traits in nature. Despite its potential drawbacks in terms of fitness, the widespread existence of this phenomenon suggests that it should have evolutionary advantages under certain circumstances. Using a global dataset of seed production time series for 219 plant species from all the continents, we tested whether masting behaviour appears predominantly in species with low foliar N and P concentrations, when controlling for local climate and productivity. Here we show that masting intensity is higher in species with low foliar N and P concentrations and especially imbalanced N:P ratios, and that the evolutionary history of masting behaviour has been linked to that of nutrient economy. Our results support the hypothesis that masting is stronger in species growing under limiting conditions and suggest that this reproductive behaviour might have evolved as an adaptation to nutrient limitations and imbalances

Stand Age and Climate Change Effects on Carbon Increments and Stock Dynamics

Carbon assimilation and wood production are influenced by environmental conditions and endogenous factors, such as species auto-ecology, age, and hierarchical position within the forest structure. Disentangling the intricate relationships between those factors is more pressing than ever due to climate change’s pressure. We employed the 3D-CMCC-FEM model to simulate undisturbed forests of different ages under four climate change (plus one no climate change) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios from five Earth system models. In this context, carbon stocks and increment were simulated via total carbon woody stocks and mean annual increment, which depends mainly on climate trends. We find greater differences among different age cohorts under the same scenario than among different climate scenarios under the same age class. Increasing temperature and changes in precipitation patterns led to a decline in above-ground biomass in spruce stands, especially in the older age classes. On the contrary, the results show that beech forests will maintain and even increase C-storage rates under most RCP scenarios. Scots pine forests show an intermediate behavior with a stable stock capacity over time and in different scenarios but with decreasing mean volume annual increment. These results confirm current observations worldwide that indicate a stronger climate-related decline in conifers forests than in broadleaves

Simulation, calibration and validation protocols for the model 3D-CMCC-CNR-FEM: a case study in the Bonis’ watershed (Calabria, Italy)

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Validation of 3D-CMCC Forest Ecosystem Model (v.5.1) against eddy covariance data for 10 European forest sites

This study evaluates the performances of the new version (v.5.1) of 3D-CMCC Forest Ecosystem Model (FEM) in simulating gross primary productivity (GPP), against eddy covariance GPP data for 10 FLUXNET forest sites across Europe. A new carbon allocation module, coupled with new both phenological and autotrophic respiration schemes, was implemented in this new daily version. Model ability in reproducing timing and magnitude of daily and monthly GPP fluctuations is validated at intra-annual and inter-annual scale, including extreme anomalous seasons. With the purpose to test the 3D-CMCC FEM applicability over Europe without a site-related calibration, the model has been deliberately parametrized with a single set of species-specific parametrizations for each forest ecosystem. The model consistently reproduces both in timing and in magnitude daily and monthly GPP variability across all sites, with the exception of the two Mediterranean sites. We find that 3D-CMCC FEM tends to better simulate the timing of inter-annual anomalies than their magnitude within measurements' uncertainty. In six of eight sites where data are available, the model well reproduces the 2003 summer drought event. Finally, for three sites we evaluate whether a more accurate representation of forest structural characteristics (i.e. cohorts, forest layers) and species composition can improve model results. In two of the three sites results reveal that model slightly increases its performances although, statistically speaking, not in a relevant way.Peer reviewe

The PROFOUND Database for evaluating vegetation models and simulating climate impacts on European forests

Process-based vegetation models are widely used to predict local and global ecosystem dynamics and climate change impacts. Due to their complexity, they require careful parameterization and evaluation to ensure that projections are accurate and reliable. The PROFOUND Database (PROFOUND DB) provides a wide range of empirical data on European forests to calibrate and evaluate vegetation models that simulate climate impacts at the forest stand scale. A particular advantage of this database is its wide coverage of multiple data sources at different hierarchical and temporal scales, together with environmental driving data as well as the latest climate scenarios. Specifically, the PROFOUND DB provides general site descriptions, soil, climate, CO2, nitrogen deposition, tree and forest stand level, and remote sensing data for nine contrasting forest stands distributed across Europe. Moreover, for a subset of five sites, time series of carbon fluxes, atmospheric heat conduction and soil water are also available. The climate and nitrogen deposition data contain several datasets for the historic period and a wide range of future climate change scenarios following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5). We also provide pre-industrial climate simulations that allow for model runs aimed at disentangling the contribution of climate change to observed forest productivity changes. The PROFOUND DB is available freely as a "SQLite" relational database or "ASCII" flat file version (at https://doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2020.006/; Reyer et al., 2020). The data policies of the individual contributing datasets are provided in the metadata of each data file. The PROFOUND DB can also be accessed via the ProfoundData R package (https://CRAN.R- project.org/package=ProfoundData; Silveyra Gonzalez et al., 2020), which provides basic functions to explore, plot and extract the data for model set-up, calibration and evaluation.Peer reviewe

A harmonized database of European forest simulations under climate change

Process-based forest models combine biological, physical, and chemical process understanding to simulate forest dynamics as an emergent property of the system. As such, they are valuable tools to investigate the effects of climate change on forest ecosystems. Specifically, they allow testing of hypotheses regarding long-term ecosystem dynamics and provide means to assess the impacts of climate scenarios on future forest development. As a consequence, numerous local-scale simulation studies have been conducted over the past decades to assess the impacts of climate change on forests. These studies apply the best available models tailored to local conditions, parameterized and evaluated by local experts. However, this treasure trove of knowledge on climate change responses remains underexplored to date, as a consistent and harmonized dataset of local model simulations is missing. Here, our objectives were (i) to compile existing local simulations on forest development under climate change in Europe in a common database, (ii) to harmonize them to a common suite of output variables, and (iii) to provide a standardized vector of auxiliary environmental variables for each simulated location to aid subsequent investigations. Our dataset of European stand- and landscape-level forest simulations contains over 1.1 million simulation runs representing 135 million simulation years for more than 13,000 unique locations spread across Europe. The data were harmonized to consistently describe forest development in terms of stand structure (dominant height), composition (dominant species, admixed species), and functioning (leaf area index). Auxiliary variables provided include consistent daily climate information (temperature, precipitation, radiation, vapor pressure deficit) as well as information on local site conditions (soil depth, soil physical properties, soil water holding capacity, plant-available nitrogen). The present dataset facilitates analyses across models and locations, with the aim to better harness the valuable information contained in local simulations for large-scale policy support, and for fostering a deeper understanding of the effects of climate change on forest ecosystems in Europe