Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Studying the Underlying Event in Drell-Yan and High Transverse Momentum Jet Production at the Tevatron

We study the underlying event in proton-antiproton collisions by examining the behavior of charged particles (transverse momentum pT > 0.5 GeV/c, pseudorapidity |\eta| < 1) produced in association with large transverse momentum jets (~2.2 fb-1) or with Drell-Yan lepton-pairs (~2.7 fb-1) in the Z-boson mass region (70 < M(pair) < 110 GeV/c2) as measured by CDF at 1.96 TeV center-of-mass energy. We use the direction of the lepton-pair (in Drell-Yan production) or the leading jet (in high-pT jet production) in each event to define three regions of \eta-\phi space; toward, away, and transverse, where \phi is the azimuthal scattering angle. For Drell-Yan production (excluding the leptons) both the toward and transverse regions are very sensitive to the underlying event. In high-pT jet production the transverse region is very sensitive to the underlying event and is separated into a MAX and MIN transverse region, which helps separate the hard component (initial and final-state radiation) from the beam-beam remnant and multiple parton interaction components of the scattering. The data are corrected to the particle level to remove detector effects and are then compared with several QCD Monte-Carlo models. The goal of this analysis is to provide data that can be used to test and improve the QCD Monte-Carlo models of the underlying event that are used to simulate hadron-hadron collisions.Comment: Submitted to Phys.Rev.

Diffractive Dijet Production at sqrt(s)=630 and 1800 GeV at the Fermilab Tevatron

We report a measurement of the diffractive structure function $F_{jj}^D$ of the antiproton obtained from a study of dijet events produced in association with a leading antiproton in $\bar pp$ collisions at $\sqrt s=630$ GeV at the Fermilab Tevatron. The ratio of $F_{jj}^D$ at $\sqrt s=630$ GeV to $F_{jj}^D$ obtained from a similar measurement at $\sqrt s=1800$ GeV is compared with expectations from QCD factorization and with theoretical predictions. We also report a measurement of the $\xi$ ($x$-Pomeron) and $\beta$ ($x$ of parton in Pomeron) dependence of $F_{jj}^D$ at $\sqrt s=1800$ GeV. In the region $0.035<\xi<0.095$, $|t|<1$ GeV$^2$ and $\beta<0.5$, $F_{jj}^D(\beta,\xi)$ is found to be of the form $\beta^{-1.0\pm 0.1} \xi^{-0.9\pm 0.1}$, which obeys $\beta$-$\xi$ factorization.Comment: LaTeX, 9 pages, Submitted to Phys. Rev. Letter

Measurement of the Dipion Mass Spectrum in X(3872) -> J/Psi Pi+ Pi- Decays

We measure the dipion mass spectrum in X(3872)--> J/Psi Pi+ Pi- decays using 360 pb-1 of pbar-p collisions at 1.96 TeV collected with the CDF II detector. The spectrum is fit with predictions for odd C-parity (3S1, 1P1, and 3DJ) charmonia decaying to J/Psi Pi+ Pi-, as well as even C-parity states in which the pions are from Rho0 decay. The latter case also encompasses exotic interpretations, such as a D0-D*0Bar molecule. Only the 3S1 and J/Psi Rho hypotheses are compatible with our data. Since 3S1 is untenable on other grounds, decay via J/Psi Rho is favored, which implies C=+1 for the X(3872). Models for different J/Psi-Rho angular momenta L are considered. Flexibility in the models, especially the introduction of Rho-Omega interference, enable good descriptions of our data for both L=0 and 1.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures -- Submitted to Phys. Rev. Let

Precision measurement of the top quark mass from dilepton events at CDF II

We report a measurement of the top quark mass, M_t, in the dilepton decay channel of $t\bar{t}\to b\ell'^{+}\nu_{\ell'}\bar{b}\ell^{-}\bar{\nu}_{\ell}$ using an integrated luminosity of 1.0 fb^{-1} of p\bar{p} collisions collected with the CDF II detector. We apply a method that convolutes a leading-order matrix element with detector resolution functions to form event-by-event likelihoods; we have enhanced the leading-order description to describe the effects of initial-state radiation. The joint likelihood is the product of the likelihoods from 78 candidate events in this sample, which yields a measurement of M_{t} = 164.5 \pm 3.9(\textrm{stat.}) \pm 3.9(\textrm{syst.}) \mathrm{GeV}/c^2, the most precise measurement of M_t in the dilepton channel.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures, version includes changes made prior to publication by journa

Cross Section Measurements of High-pTp_T Dilepton Final-State Processes Using a Global Fitting Method

We present a new method for studying high-$p_T$ dilepton events ($e^{\pm}e^{\mp}$, $\mu^{\pm}\mu^{\mp}$, $e^{\pm}\mu^{\mp}$) and simultaneously extracting the production cross sections of $p\bar{p} \to t\bar{t}$, $p\bar{p} \to W^+W^-$, and p\bar{p} \to \ztt at a center-of-mass energy of $\sqrt{s} = 1.96$ TeV. We perform a likelihood fit to the dilepton data in a parameter space defined by the missing transverse energy and the number of jets in the event. Our results, which use $360 {\rm pb^{-1}}$ of data recorded with the CDF II detector at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider, are $\sigma(t\bar{t}) = 8.5_{-2.2}^{+2.7}$ pb, $\sigma(W^+W^-) = 16.3^{+5.2}_{-4.4}$ pb, and \sigma(\ztt) =291^{+50}_{-46} pb.Comment: 20 pages, 2 figures, to be submitted to PRD-R

Measurement of the Ratios of Branching Fractions B(Bs -> Ds pi pi pi) / B(Bd -> Dd pi pi pi) and B(Bs -> Ds pi) / B(Bd -> Dd pi)

Using 355 pb^-1 of data collected by the CDF II detector in \ppbar collisions at sqrt{s} = 1.96 TeV at the Fermilab Tevatron, we study the fully reconstructed hadronic decays B -> D pi and B -> D pi pi pi. We present the first measurement of the ratio of branching fractions B(Bs -> Ds pi pi pi) / B(Bd -> Dd pi pi pi) = 1.05 pm 0.10 (stat) pm 0.22 (syst). We also update our measurement of B(Bs -> Ds pi) / B(Bd -> Dd pi) to 1.13 pm 0.08 (stat) pm 0.23 (syst) improving the statistical uncertainty by more than a factor of two. We find B(Bs -> Ds pi) = [3.8 pm 0.3 (stat) pm 1.3 (syst)] \times 10^{-3} and B(Bs -> Ds pi pi pi) = [8.4 pm 0.8 (stat) pm 3.2 (syst)] \times 10^{-3}.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figure

Top Quark Mass Measurement from Dilepton Events at CDF II with the Matrix-Element Method

We describe a measurement of the top quark mass using events with two charged leptons collected by the CDF II detector from $p\bar{p}$ collisions with $\sqrt s = 1.96$ TeV at the Fermilab Tevatron. The likelihood in top mass is calculated for each event by convoluting the leading order matrix element describing $q\bar{q} \to t\bar{t} \to b\ell\nu_{\ell}\bar{b}\ell'\nu_{\ell'}$ with detector resolution functions. The presence of background events in the data sample is modeled using similar calculations involving the matrix elements for major background processes. In a data sample with integrated luminosity of 340 pb$^{-1}$, we observe 33 candidate events and measure $M_{top} = 165.2 \pm 6.1(\textrm{stat.}) \pm 3.4(\textrm{syst.}) \mathrm{~GeV}/c^2.$ This measurement represents the first application of this method to events with two charged leptons and is the most precise single measurement of the top quark mass in this channel.Comment: 21 pages, 14 figure

Search for New Physics in Lepton + Photon + X Events with L=305 pb-1 of ppbar Collisions at roots=1.96 TeV

We present results of a search for anomalous production of events containing a charged lepton (either electron or muon) and a photon, both with high transverse momentum, accompanied by additional signatures, X, including missing transverse energy (MET) and additional leptons and photons. We use the same kinematic selection criteria as in a previous CDF search, but with a substantially larger data set, 305 pb-1, a ppbar collision energy of 1.96 TeV, and the upgraded CDF II detector. We find 42 Lepton+Photon+MET events versus a standard model expectation of 37.3 +- 5.4 events. The level of excess observed in Run I, 16 events with an expectation of 7.6 +- 0.7 events (corresponding to a 2.7 sigma effect), is not supported by the new data. In the signature of Multi-Lepton+Photon+X we observe 31 events versus an expectation of 23.0 +- 2.7 events. In this sample we find no events with an extra photon or MET and so find no events like the one ee+gg+MET event observed in Run I.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures, 1 table. Accepted to PR

Measurement of the Lambda_b Lifetime in Lambda_b --> J/psi Lambda0 in p-pbar Collisions at sqrt(s)=1.96 TeV

We report a measurement of the Lambda_b lifetime in the exclusive decay Lambda_b --> J/psi Lambda0 in p-pbar collisions at sqrt(s) = 1.96 TeV using an integrated luminosity of 1.0 fb^{-1} of data collected by the CDF II detector at the Fermilab Tevatron. Using fully reconstructed decays, we measure tau(Lambda_b) = 1.593 ^{+0.083}_{-0.078} (stat.) +- 0.033 (syst.) ps. This is the single most precise measurement of tau(Lambda_b) and is 3.2 sigma higher than the current world average.Comment: 7 Pages, 2 Figures, 1 Table. Submitted to Phys. Rev. Let