Vertical motion structure in tropical mesoscale convective systems

December, 1995.Bibliography: pages 178-187.Sponsored by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NA37J0202

Forecasts of Opportunity for Northern California Soil Moisture

Soil moisture anomalies underpin a number of critical hydrological phenomena with socioeconomic consequences, yet systematic studies of soil moisture predictability are limited. Here, we use a data-adaptive technique, Linear Inverse Modeling, which has proved useful as an indication of predictability in other fields, to investigate the predictability of soil moisture in northern California. This approach yields a model of soil moisture at 10 stations in the region, with results that indicate the possibility of skillful forecasts at each for lead times of 1&ndash;2 weeks. An important advantage of this model is the a priori identification of forecasts of opportunity&mdash;conditions under which the model&rsquo;s forecasts may be expected to have particularly high skill. Given that forecast errors (and inversely, their skill) can be estimated in advance, these findings have the potential to greatly increase the utility of soil moisture forecasts for practical applications including drought and flood forecasting.</p

Numerical Analysis Using WRF-SBM for the Cloud Microphysical Structures in the C3VP Field Campaign: Impacts of Supercooled Droplets and Resultant Riming on Snow Microphysics

Two distinct snowfall events are observed over the region near the Great Lakes during 19-23 January 2007 under the intensive measurement campaign of the Canadian CloudSat/CALIPSO validation project (C3VP). These events are numerically investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a spectral bin microphysics (WRF-SBM) scheme that allows a smooth calculation of riming process by predicting the rimed mass fraction on snow aggregates. The fundamental structures of the observed two snowfall systems are distinctly characterized by a localized intense lake-effect snowstorm in one case and a widely distributed moderate snowfall by the synoptic-scale system in another case. Furthermore, the observed microphysical structures are distinguished by differences in bulk density of solid-phase particles, which are probably linked to the presence or absence of supercooled droplets. The WRF-SBM coupled with Goddard Satellite Data Simulator Unit (G-SDSU) has successfully simulated these distinctive structures in the three-dimensional weather prediction run with a horizontal resolution of 1 km. In particular, riming on snow aggregates by supercooled droplets is considered to be of importance in reproducing the specialized microphysical structures in the case studies. Additional sensitivity tests for the lake-effect snowstorm case are conducted utilizing different planetary boundary layer (PBL) models or the same SBM but without the riming process. The PBL process has a large impact on determining the cloud microphysical structure of the lake-effect snowstorm as well as the surface precipitation pattern, whereas the riming process has little influence on the surface precipitation because of the small height of the system

A Classification System for Defining and Estimating Dietary Intake of Live Microbes in US Adults and Children

Background: Consuming livemicrobes in foods may benefit human health. Live microbe estimates have not previously been associated with individual foods in dietary databases. Objectives: We aimed to estimate intake of live microbes in US children (aged 2–18 y) and adults (≥19 y) (n = 74,466; 51.2% female). Methods: Using cross-sectional data from the NHANES (2001–2018), experts assigned foods an estimated level of live microbes per gram [low (Lo), \u3c104 CFU/g; medium (Med), 104–107 CFU/g; or high (Hi), \u3e107 CFU/g]. Probiotic dietary supplements were also assessed. The mean intake of each live microbe category and the percentages of subjects who ate from each live microbe category were determined. Nutrients from foods with live microbes were also determined using the population ratio method. Because the Hi category comprised primarily fermented dairy foods, we also looked at aggregated data for Med or Hi (MedHi), which included an expanded range of live microbe–containing foods, including fruits and vegetables. Results: Our analysis showed that 52%, 20%, and 59% of children/adolescents, and 61%, 26%, and 67% of adults, consumed Med, Hi, or MedHi foods, respectively. Per capita intake of Med, Hi, and MedHi foods was 69, 16, and 85 g/d for children/adolescents, and 106, 21, and 127 g/d for adults, respectively. The proportion of subjects who consumed live microbes and overall per capita intake increased significantly over the 9 cycles/18-y study period (0.9–3.1 g/d per cycle in children across categories and 1.4 g/d per cycle in adults for the Med category). Conclusions: This study indicated that children, adolescents, and adults in the United States steadily increased their consumption of foods with live microbes between the earliest (2001–2002) and latest (2017–2018) survey cycles. Additional research is needed to determine the relations between exposure to live microbes in foods and specific health outcomes or biomarkers

Advances in understanding gray matter pathology in multiple sclerosis: Are we ready to redefine disease pathogenesis?

The purpose of this special issue in BMC Neurology is to summarize advances in our understanding of the pathological, immunological, imaging and clinical concepts of gray matter (GM) pathology in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS). Review articles by Lucchinetti and Popescu, Walker and colleagues, Hulst and colleagues and Horakova and colleagues summarize important recent advances in understanding GM damage and its implications to MS pathogenesis. They also raise a number of important new questions and outline comprehensive approaches to addressing those questions in years to come. In the last decade, the use of immunohistochemistry staining methods and more advanced imaging techniques to detect GM lesions, like double inversion recovery, contributed to a surge of studies related to cortical and subcortical GM pathology in MS. It is becoming more apparent from recent biopsy studies that subpial cortical lesions in early MS are highly inflammatory. The mechanisms responsible for triggering meningeal inflammation in MS patients are not yet elucidated, and they should be further investigated in relation to their role in initiating and perpetuating the disease process. Determining the role of antigens, environmental and genetic factors in the pathogenesis of GM involvement in MS is critical. The early involvement of cortical and subcortical GM damage in MS is very intriguing and needs to be further studied. As established in numerous cross-sectional and longitudinal studies, GM damage is a better predictor of physical disability and cognitive impairment than WM damage. Monitoring the evolution of GM damage is becoming an important marker in predicting future disease course and response to therapy in MS patients

Application of a Key Events Dose-Response Analysis to Nutrients: A Case Study with Vitamin A (Retinol)

The methodology used to establish tolerable upper intake levels (UL) for nutrients borrows heavily from risk assessment methods used by toxicologists. Empirical data are used to identify intake levels associated with adverse effects, and Uncertainty Factors (UF) are applied to establish ULs, which in turn inform public health decisions and standards. Use of UFs reflects lack of knowledge regarding the biological events that underlie response to the intake of a given nutrient, and also regarding the sources of variability in that response. In this paper, the Key Events Dose-Response Framework (KEDRF) is used to systematically consider the major biological steps that lead from the intake of the preformed vitamin A to excess systemic levels, and subsequently to increased risk of adverse effects. Each step is examined with regard to factors that influence whether there is progression toward the adverse effect of concern. The role of homeostatic mechanisms is discussed, along with the types of research needed to improve understanding of dose-response for vitamin A. This initial analysis illustrates the potential of the KEDRF as a useful analytical tool for integrating current knowledge regarding dose-response, generating questions that will focus future research efforts, and clarifying how improved knowledge and data could be used to reduce reliance on UFs

The Saharan Air Layer and the Fate of African Easterly Waves—NASA's AMMA Field Study of Tropical Cyclogenesis

In 2006, NASA led a field campaign to investigate the factors that control the fate of African easterly waves (AEWs) moving westward into the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Aircraft and surface-based equipment were based on Cape Verde's islands, helping to fill some of the data void between Africa and the Caribbean. Taking advantage of the international African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) program over the continent, the NASA–AMMA (NAMMA) program used enhanced upstream data, whereas NOAA aircraft farther west in the Atlantic studied several of the storms downstream. Seven AEWs were studied during AMMA, with at least two becoming tropical cyclones. Some of the waves that did not develop while being sampled near Cape Verde likely intensified in the central Atlantic instead. NAMMA observations were able to distinguish between the large-scale wave structure and the smaller-scale vorticity maxima that often form within the waves. A special complication of the east Atlantic environment is the Saharan air layer (SAL), which frequently accompanies the AEWs and may introduce dry air and heavy aerosol loading into the convective storm systems in the AEWs. One of the main achievements of NAMMA was the acquisition of a database of remote sensing and in situ observations of the properties of the SAL, enabling dynamic models and satellite retrieval algorithms to be evaluated against high-quality real data. Ongoing research with this database will help determine how the SAL influences cloud micro-physics and perhaps also tropical cyclogenesis, as well as the more general question of recognizing the properties of small-scale vorticity maxima within tropical waves that are more likely to become tropical cyclones

The Post-Eocene Evolution of the Doruneh Fault Region (Central Iran): The Intraplate Response to the Reorganization of the Arabia-Eurasia Collision Zone

The Cenozoic deformation history of Central Iran has been dominantly accommodated by the activation of major intracontinental strike-slip fault zones, developed in the hinterland domain of the Arabia-Eurasia convergent margin. Few quantitative temporal and kinematic constraints are available from these strike-slip deformation zones, hampering a full assessment of the style and timing of intraplate deformation in Iran and the understanding of the possible linkage to the tectonic reorganization of the Zagros collisional zone. This study focuses on the region to the north of the active trace of the sinistral Doruneh Fault. By combing structural and low-temperature apatite fission track (AFT) and (U-Th)/He (AHe) thermochronology investigations, we provide new kinematic and temporal constraints to the deformation history of Central Iran. Our results document a post-Eocene polyphase tectonic evolution dominated by dextral strike-slip tectonics, whose activity is constrained since the early Miocene in response to an early, NW-SE oriented paleo-σ1 direction. A major phase of enhanced cooling/exhumation is constrained at the Miocene/Pliocene boundary, caused by a switch of the maximum paleo-σ1 direction to N-S. When integrated into the regional scenario, these data are framed into a new tectonic reconstruction for the Miocene-Quaternary time lapse, where strike-slip deformation in the intracontinental domain of Central Iran is interpreted as guided by the reorganization of the Zagros collisional zone in the transition from an immature to a mature stage of continental collision

<span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family: Mangal;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB;mso-fareast-language:EN-US;mso-bidi-language: HI" lang="EN-GB">Concepts and principles of rainfall estimation from radar: Multi sensor environment and data fusion</span>

389-402Rainfall estimation has been pursued nearly since the dawn of civilization. It is also one of the most commonly used applications of modern, meteorological radars in most operational systems. Multi sensor approaches have made great strides in addressing the rainfall estimation problem through better sensor calibration and improved integration of observations at scales spanning many orders of magnitude such as radar, satellite and rain gauges. Data fusion techniques have demonstrated advantages in precipitation retrievals, especially for radar observations at attenuated frequencies. Data fusion has also shown benefits in merging data from multiple radars, as well as radars and satellites. This paper describes essential concepts of multi sensor rainfall estimation with a radar focus. Validation concepts for remote estimation of rainfall are also presented. Examples of data fusion and validation are illustrated through rainfall estimate comparisons between gauge and radar networks.&nbsp