Trade Synchronisation During Major Economic Crises

In this paper we present a new long-term database on monthly export and import series for 23 economies during 1921-2010 and its first empirical application. Using these data, we analyse the synchronised decline in foreign trade during the recession 2008-09 in a historical perspective. We investigate the following two research questions: First, we compare the degree of synchronisation of trade flows among the past major economic crises. Second, we investigate the synchronisation of the speed of the recovery after these recessions. In order to answer these questions we use both, descriptive statistics (like rolling correlations) and turning-point oriented measures (Bry-Boschan routine, Markov switching model)

The clinical significance of small copy number variants in neurodevelopmental disorders

Background: Despite abundant evidence for pathogenicity of large copy number variants (CNVs) in neurodevelopmental disorders (NDDs), the individual significance of genome-wide rare CNVs <500 kb has not been well elucidated in a clinical context. Methods: By high-resolution chromosomal microarray analysis, we investigated the clinical significance of all rare non-polymorphic exonic CNVs sizing 1–500 kb in a cohort of 714 patients with undiagnosed NDDs. Results: We detected 96 rare CNVs <500 kb affecting coding regions, of which 58 (60.4%) were confirmed. 6 of 14 confirmed de novo, one of two homozygous and four heterozygous inherited CNVs affected the known microdeletion regions 17q21.31, 16p11.2 and 2p21 or OMIM morbid genes (CASK, CREBBP, PAFAH1B1, SATB2; AUTS2, NRXN3, GRM8). Two further de novo CNVs affecting single genes (MED13L, CTNND2) were instrumental in delineating novel recurrent conditions. For the first time, we here report exonic deletions of CTNND2 causing low normal IQ with learning difficulties with or without autism spectrum disorder. Additionally, we discovered a homozygous out-of-frame deletion of ACOT7 associated with features comparable to the published mouse model. In total, 24.1% of the confirmed small CNVs were categorised as pathogenic or likely pathogenic (median size 130 kb), 17.2% as likely benign, 3.4% represented incidental findings and 55.2% remained unclear. Conclusions: These results verify the diagnostic relevance of genome-wide rare CNVs <500 kb, which were found pathogenic in ∼2% (14/714) of cases (1.1% de novo, 0.3% homozygous, 0.6% inherited) and highlight their inherent potential for discovery of new conditions

Global patient outcomes after elective surgery: prospective cohort study in 27 low-, middle- and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: As global initiatives increase patient access to surgical treatments, there remains a need to understand the adverse effects of surgery and define appropriate levels of perioperative care. METHODS: We designed a prospective international 7-day cohort study of outcomes following elective adult inpatient surgery in 27 countries. The primary outcome was in-hospital complications. Secondary outcomes were death following a complication (failure to rescue) and death in hospital. Process measures were admission to critical care immediately after surgery or to treat a complication and duration of hospital stay. A single definition of critical care was used for all countries. RESULTS: A total of 474 hospitals in 19 high-, 7 middle- and 1 low-income country were included in the primary analysis. Data included 44 814 patients with a median hospital stay of 4 (range 2-7) days. A total of 7508 patients (16.8%) developed one or more postoperative complication and 207 died (0.5%). The overall mortality among patients who developed complications was 2.8%. Mortality following complications ranged from 2.4% for pulmonary embolism to 43.9% for cardiac arrest. A total of 4360 (9.7%) patients were admitted to a critical care unit as routine immediately after surgery, of whom 2198 (50.4%) developed a complication, with 105 (2.4%) deaths. A total of 1233 patients (16.4%) were admitted to a critical care unit to treat complications, with 119 (9.7%) deaths. Despite lower baseline risk, outcomes were similar in low- and middle-income compared with high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Poor patient outcomes are common after inpatient surgery. Global initiatives to increase access to surgical treatments should also address the need for safe perioperative care. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN5181700

The clinical significance of small copy number variants in neurodevelopmental disorders

BACKGROUND Despite abundant evidence for pathogenicity of large copy number variants (CNVs) in neurodevelopmental disorders (NDDs), the individual significance of genome-wide rare CNVs <500 kb has not been well elucidated in a clinical context. METHODS By high-resolution chromosomal microarray analysis, we investigated the clinical significance of all rare non-polymorphic exonic CNVs sizing 1-500 kb in a cohort of 714 patients with undiagnosed NDDs. RESULTS We detected 96 rare CNVs <500 kb affecting coding regions, of which 58 (60.4%) were confirmed. 6 of 14 confirmed de novo, one of two homozygous and four heterozygous inherited CNVs affected the known microdeletion regions 17q21.31, 16p11.2 and 2p21 or OMIM morbid genes (CASK, CREBBP, PAFAH1B1, SATB2; AUTS2, NRXN3, GRM8). Two further de novo CNVs affecting single genes (MED13L, CTNND2) were instrumental in delineating novel recurrent conditions. For the first time, we here report exonic deletions of CTNND2 causing low normal IQ with learning difficulties with or without autism spectrum disorder. Additionally, we discovered a homozygous out-of-frame deletion of ACOT7 associated with features comparable to the published mouse model. In total, 24.1% of the confirmed small CNVs were categorised as pathogenic or likely pathogenic (median size 130 kb), 17.2% as likely benign, 3.4% represented incidental findings and 55.2% remained unclear. CONCLUSIONS These results verify the diagnostic relevance of genome-wide rare CNVs <500 kb, which were found pathogenic in ∼2% (14/714) of cases (1.1% de novo, 0.3% homozygous, 0.6% inherited) and highlight their inherent potential for discovery of new conditions

Comparison of Black Box Models for Load Profile Generation of District Heating Networks

Black box modeling is a fast and efficient way of creating models for generating the heat demand of a district heating networks. A sufficient amount of high quality data has to be collected to form the basis for a valid model that can serve as training and test stand for the models. The model parameters and their influence on the heat demand are investigated and a model structure is derived. With this structure, five data mining algorithms, namely Multiple Linear Regression (LR), Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest (RF), k-Nearest Neighbor (k-NN) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are utilized for creating the load models for a small district heating network located in southeast of Austria. Except for LR, all algorithms showed a good performance. They are well suited for that kind of task. K-NN has the best regression score metric with an average MAPE of 13.49 %.Forschung Burgenlan

Künstliche Neuronale NARX-Modelle zur Wärmelastprognose von Nahwärmenetzen

Im Kontext des Smart Grid und der hybriden Netzbetrachtung stellen Wärmenetze eine Flexibilität für das Stromnetz bereit, die durch intelligente Nutzung eine bessere Integration der erneuerbaren Energieträger ermöglichen kann. Dafür sind Wärmelastprognosen für das Wärmenetz erforderlich, um prädiktiv die Wärmebereitstellung zu regeln. Die Stärken des NARX-Modelles in Kombination mit Neuronalen Netzen liegen dabei in der Lernfähigkeit und Adaptierbarkeit des Modells. Trotz einer suboptimalen Menge an Trainingsdaten und der geringen Größe des betrachteten Nahwärmenetzes, liefert das Modell gute Prognosewerte in einem Prädiktionshorizont von bis zu 24 Stunden.Forschung Burgenlan

Hochfrequente Konjunkturbeobachtung (High-frequency Business Cycle Monitoring)

In dieser Studie wird eine große Zahl hochfrequenter Indikatoren gesammelt und hinsichtlich ihres Informationsgehaltes im Hinblick auf die Aktivität der österreichischen Volkswirtschaft analysiert. Dies geschieht anhand von Kreuzkorrelationen dieser und anderer häufig verwendeter Indikatoren für verschiedene Referenzreihen, u.a. für das BIP, das verarbeitende Gewerbe, den Bausektor, Teile des Dienstleistungssektors, Investitionen, Konsum, Importe und Exporte. Auf Basis dieser Erkenntnisse werden dynamische Faktormodelle (DFM) für die Referenzreihen spezifiziert. Dies ermöglicht eine Echtzeiteinschätzung und eine Prognose des BIP sowohl durch einen direkten (wöchentlicher WIFO-Wirtschaftsindex – WWWI) als auch durch einen indirekten Ansatz (Cluster dynamischer Faktormodelle – CDFM). Eine Auswahl an hochfrequenten Indikatoren ist auch über den IHS Economic High-Frequency Monitor abrufbar

Microstructural PALS study of regulated dimethacrylates: Thiol- versus β-allyl sulfone-based networks

The final publication is available via https://doi.org/10.1002/polb.24240.Radical photocuring of multifunctional (meth)acrylates is lacking control over the irregular chain growth process yielding highly crosslinked, inhomogeneous networks. Chain transfer agents (CTAs, e.g. thiols or β-allyl sulfones) have been widely used to modify this curing process, thus reducing shrinkage stress and increasing the toughness of the formed photopolymers. Resulting photopolymer networks exhibit higher bulk density, lower crosslinking density and narrow glass transitions. Consequently, a more homogeneous network structure was postulated for those networks. Whereas macroscopic properties of the modified final materials have already been studied, herein the microstructural arrangement of such modified networks has also been evaluated with the help of positron annihilation lifetime spectroscopy (PALS). A more homogenous network structure with a decreased free-volume void size was confirmed for CTA-based dimethacrylate networks. A sharper distribution of the orthopositronium (o-Ps) lifetime, mainly for the β-allyl sulfone-based photopolymers, hints towards a more regulated network structure. Moreover, the combination of PALS, DMTA, density and swelling experiments elucidates relations between void formation, crosslinking density and macroscopic characteristics such as shrinkage stress and mechanical properties.Austrian Science Funds (FWF