Sensitivity Analyses of Exoplanet Occurrence Rates from Kepler and Gaia

We infer the number of planets per star as a function of orbital period and planet size using Kepler archival data products with updated stellar properties from the Gaia Data Release 2. Using hierarchical Bayesian modeling and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, we incorporate planet radius uncertainties into an inhomogeneous Poisson point process model. We demonstrate that this model captures the general features of the outcome of the planet formation and evolution around GK stars and provides an infrastructure to use the Kepler results to constrain analytic planet distribution models. We report an increased mean and variance in the marginal posterior distributions for the number of planets per GK star when including planet radius measurement uncertainties. We estimate the number of planets per GK star between 0.75 and 2.5 R⊕ and with orbital periods of 50–300 days to have a 68% credible interval of 0.49–0.77 and a posterior mean of 0.63. This posterior has a smaller mean and a larger variance than the occurrence rate calculated in this work and in Burke et al. for the same parameter space using the Q1−Q16 (previous Kepler planet candidate and stellar catalog). We attribute the smaller mean to many of the instrumental false positives at longer orbital periods being removed from the DR25 catalog. We find that the accuracy and precision of our hierarchical Bayesian model posterior distributions are less sensitive to the total number of planets in the sample, and more so for the characteristics of the catalog completeness and reliability and the span of the planet parameter space

Planetary Candidates Observed by Kepler VI: Planet Sample from Q1-Q16 (47 Months)

\We present the sixth catalog of Kepler candidate planets based on nearly 4 years of high precision photometry. This catalog builds on the legacy of previous catalogs released by the Kepler project and includes 1493 new Kepler Objects of Interest (KOIs) of which 554 are planet candidates, and 131 of these candidates have best fit radii <1.5 R_earth. This brings the total number of KOIs and planet candidates to 7305 and 4173 respectively. We suspect that many of these new candidates at the low signal-to-noise limit may be false alarms created by instrumental noise, and discuss our efforts to identify such objects. We re-evaluate all previously published KOIs with orbital periods of >50 days to provide a consistently vetted sample that can be used to improve planet occurrence rate calculations. We discuss the performance of our planet detection algorithms, and the consistency of our vetting products. The full catalog is publicly available at the NASA Exoplanet Archive.Comment: 18 pages, to be published in the Astrophysical Journal Supplement Serie

The tyranny of the male preserve

Within this paper I draw on short vignettes and quotes taken from a two-year ethnographic study of boxing to think through the continuing academic merit of the notion of the male preserve. This is an important task due to evidence of shifts in social patterns of gender that have developed since the idea was first proposed in the 1970s. In aligning theoretical contributions from Lefebvre and Butler to discussions of the male preserve, we are able to add nuance to our understanding of how such social spaces are engrained with and produced by the lingering grasp of patriarchal narratives. In particular, by situating the male preserve within shifting social processes, whereby certain men’s power is increasingly undermined, I highlight the production of space within which narratives connecting men to violence, aggression and physical power can be consumed, performed and reified in a relatively unrestricted form. This specific case study contributes to gender theory as an illustration of a way in which we might explore and understand social enclaves where certain people are able to lay claim to space and power. As such, I argue that the notion of the male preserve is still a useful conceptual, theoretical and political device especially when considered as produced by the tyranny of gender power through the dramatic representation and reification of behaviours symbolically linked to patriarchal narrations of manhood

Masses, radii, and orbits of small Kepler planets : The transition from gaseous to rocky planets

We report on the masses, sizes, and orbits of the planets orbiting 22 Kepler stars. There are 49 planet candidates around these stars, including 42 detected through transits and 7 revealed by precise Doppler measurements of the host stars. Based on an analysis of the Kepler brightness measurements, along with high-resolution imaging and spectroscopy, Doppler spectroscopy, and (for 11 stars) asteroseismology, we establish low false-positive probabilities (FPPs) for all of the transiting planets (41 of 42 have an FPP under 1%), and we constrain their sizes and masses. Most of the transiting planets are smaller than three times the size of Earth. For 16 planets, the Doppler signal was securely detected, providing a direct measurement of the planet's mass. For the other 26 planets we provide either marginal mass measurements or upper limits to their masses and densities; in many cases we can rule out a rocky composition. We identify six planets with densities above 5 g cm-3, suggesting a mostly rocky interior for them. Indeed, the only planets that are compatible with a purely rocky composition are smaller than 2 R ⊕. Larger planets evidently contain a larger fraction of low-density material (H, He, and H2O).Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

The Danger of Having All Your Eggs in One Basket—Winter Crash of the Re-Introduced Przewalski's Horses in the Mongolian Gobi

Large mammals re-introduced into harsh and unpredictable environments are vulnerable to stochastic effects, particularly in times of global climate change. The Mongolian Gobi is home to several rare large ungulates such as re-introduced Przewalski's horses (Equus ferus przewalskii) and Asiatic wild asses (Equus hemionus), but also to a millennium-old semi-nomadic livestock herding culture

Use of outpatient care in VA and Medicare among disability-eligible and age-eligible veteran patients

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>More than half of veterans who use Veterans Health Administration (VA) care are also eligible for Medicare via disability or age, but no prior studies have examined variation in use of outpatient services by Medicare-eligible veterans across health system, type of care or time.</p> <p>Objectives</p> <p>To examine differences in use of VA and Medicare outpatient services by disability-eligible or age-eligible veterans among veterans who used VA primary care services and were also eligible for Medicare.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A retrospective cohort study of 4,704 disability- and 10,816 age-eligible veterans who used VA primary care services in fiscal year (FY) 2000. We tracked their outpatient utilization from FY2001 to FY2004 using VA administrative and Medicare claims data. We examined utilization differences for primary care, specialty care, and mental health outpatient visits using generalized estimating equations.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Among Medicare-eligible veterans who used VA primary care, disability-eligible veterans had more VA primary care visits (<it>p </it>< 0.001) and more VA specialty care visits (<it>p </it>< 0.001) than age-eligible veterans. They were more likely to have mental health visits in VA (<it>p </it>< 0.01) and Medicare-reimbursed visits (<it>p </it>< 0.01). Disability-eligible veterans also had more total (VA+Medicare) visits for primary care (<it>p </it>< 0.01) and specialty care (<it>p </it>< 0.01), controlling for patient characteristics.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Greater use of primary care and specialty care visits by disability-eligible veterans is most likely related to greater health needs not captured by the patient characteristics we employed and eligibility for VA care at no cost. Outpatient care patterns of disability-eligible veterans may foreshadow care patterns of veterans returning from Afghanistan and Iraq wars, who are entering the system in growing numbers. This study provides an important baseline for future research assessing utilizations among returning veterans who use both VA and Medicare systems. Establishing effective care coordination protocols between VA and Medicare providers can help ensure efficient use of taxpayer resources and high quality care for disabled veterans.</p

A chemical survey of exoplanets with ARIEL

Thousands of exoplanets have now been discovered with a huge range of masses, sizes and orbits: from rocky Earth-like planets to large gas giants grazing the surface of their host star. However, the essential nature of these exoplanets remains largely mysterious: there is no known, discernible pattern linking the presence, size, or orbital parameters of a planet to the nature of its parent star. We have little idea whether the chemistry of a planet is linked to its formation environment, or whether the type of host star drives the physics and chemistry of the planet’s birth, and evolution. ARIEL was conceived to observe a large number (~1000) of transiting planets for statistical understanding, including gas giants, Neptunes, super-Earths and Earth-size planets around a range of host star types using transit spectroscopy in the 1.25–7.8 μm spectral range and multiple narrow-band photometry in the optical. ARIEL will focus on warm and hot planets to take advantage of their well-mixed atmospheres which should show minimal condensation and sequestration of high-Z materials compared to their colder Solar System siblings. Said warm and hot atmospheres are expected to be more representative of the planetary bulk composition. Observations of these warm/hot exoplanets, and in particular of their elemental composition (especially C, O, N, S, Si), will allow the understanding of the early stages of planetary and atmospheric formation during the nebular phase and the following few million years. ARIEL will thus provide a representative picture of the chemical nature of the exoplanets and relate this directly to the type and chemical environment of the host star. ARIEL is designed as a dedicated survey mission for combined-light spectroscopy, capable of observing a large and well-defined planet sample within its 4-year mission lifetime. Transit, eclipse and phase-curve spectroscopy methods, whereby the signal from the star and planet are differentiated using knowledge of the planetary ephemerides, allow us to measure atmospheric signals from the planet at levels of 10–100 part per million (ppm) relative to the star and, given the bright nature of targets, also allows more sophisticated techniques, such as eclipse mapping, to give a deeper insight into the nature of the atmosphere. These types of observations require a stable payload and satellite platform with broad, instantaneous wavelength coverage to detect many molecular species, probe the thermal structure, identify clouds and monitor the stellar activity. The wavelength range proposed covers all the expected major atmospheric gases from e.g. H2O, CO2, CH4 NH3, HCN, H2S through to the more exotic metallic compounds, such as TiO, VO, and condensed species. Simulations of ARIEL performance in conducting exoplanet surveys have been performed – using conservative estimates of mission performance and a full model of all significant noise sources in the measurement – using a list of potential ARIEL targets that incorporates the latest available exoplanet statistics. The conclusion at the end of the Phase A study, is that ARIEL – in line with the stated mission objectives – will be able to observe about 1000 exoplanets depending on the details of the adopted survey strategy, thus confirming the feasibility of the main science objectives.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio