A diabatically-generated potential vorticity structure near the extratropical tropopause in three simulated extratropical cyclones

The structure of near-tropopause potential vorticity (PV) acts as a primary control on the evolution of extratropical cyclones. Diabatic processes such as the latent heating found in ascending moist warm conveyor belts modify PV. A dipole in diabatically-generated PV (hereafter diabatic PV) straddling the extratropical tropopause, with the positive pole above the negative pole, was diagnosed in a recently published analysis of a simulated extratropical cyclone. This PV dipole has the potential to significantly modify the propagation of Rossby waves and the growth of baroclinically-unstable waves. This previous analysis was based on a single case study simulated with 12-km horizontal grid spacing and parameterized convection. Here, the dipole is investigated in three additional cold-season extratropical cyclones simulated in both convection-parameterizing and convection-permitting model configurations. A diabatic PV dipole across the extratropical tropopause is diagnosed in all three cases. The amplitude of the dipole saturates approximately 36 hours from the time diabatic PV is accumulated. The node elevation of the dipole varies between 2-4 PVU in the three cases, and the amplitude of the system-averaged dipole varies between 0.2-0.4 PVU. The amplitude of the negative pole is similar in the convection-parameterizing and convection-permitting simulations. The positive pole, which is generated by long-wave radiative cooling, is weak in the convection-permitting simulations due to the small domain size which limits the accumulation of diabatic tendencies within the interior of the domain. The possible correspondence between the diabatic PV dipole and the extratropical tropopause inversion layer is discussed

A case study of sea breeze blocking regulated by sea surface temperature along the English south coast

The sensitivity of sea breeze structure to sea surface temperature (SST) and coastal orography is investigated in convection-permitting Met Office Unified Model simulations of a case study along the south coast of England. Changes in SST of 1 K are shown to significantly modify the structure of the sea breeze immediately offshore. On the day of the case study, the sea breeze was partially blocked by coastal orography, particularly within Lyme Bay. The extent to which the flow is blocked depends strongly on the static stability of the marine boundary layer. In experiments with colder SST, the marine boundary layer is more stable, and the degree of blocking is more pronounced. Although a colder SST would also imply a larger land–sea temperature contrast and hence a stronger onshore wind – an effect which alone would discourage blocking – the increased static stability exerts a dominant control over whether blocking takes place. The implications of prescribing fixed SST from climatology in numerical weather prediction model forecasts of the sea breeze are discussed

Modulation of precipitation by conditional symmetric instability release

Although many theoretical and observational studies have investigated the mechanism of conditional symmetric instability (CSI) release and associated it with mesoscale atmospheric phenomena such as frontal precipitation bands, cloud heads in rapidly developing extratropical cyclones and sting jets, its climatology and contribution to precipitation have not been extensively documented. The aim of this paper is to quantify the contribution of CSI release, yielding slantwise convection, to climatological precipitation accumulations for the North Atlantic and western Europe. Case studies reveal that CSI release could be common along cold fronts of mature extratropical cyclones and the North Atlantic storm track is found to be a region with large CSI according to two independent CSI metrics. Correlations of CSI with accumulated precipitation are also large in this region and CSI release is inferred to be occurring about 20% of the total time over depths of over 1km. We conclude that the inability of current global weather forecast and climate prediction models to represent CSI release (due to insufficient resolution yet lack of subgrid parametrization schemes) may lead to errors in precipitation distributions, particularly in the region of the North Atlantic storm track

Systematic model forecast error in Rossby wave structure

Diabatic processes can alter Rossby wave structure; consequently errors arising from model processes propagate downstream. However, the chaotic spread of forecasts from initial condition uncertainty renders it difficult to trace back from root mean square forecast errors to model errors. Here diagnostics unaffected by phase errors are used, enabling investigation of systematic errors in Rossby waves in winter-season forecasts from three operational centers. Tropopause sharpness adjacent to ridges decreases with forecast lead time. It depends strongly on model resolution, even though models are examined on a common grid. Rossby wave amplitude reduces with lead time up to about five days, consistent with under-representation of diabatic modification and transport of air from the lower troposphere into upper-tropospheric ridges, and with too weak humidity gradients across the tropopause. However, amplitude also decreases when resolution is decreased. Further work is necessary to isolate the contribution from errors in the representation of diabatic processes

The non-conservation of potential vorticity by a dynamical core compared with the effects of parametrized physical processes

Numerical models of the atmosphere combine a dynamical core, which approximates solutions to the adiabatic, frictionless governing equations for fluid dynamics, with tendencies arising from the parametrization of other physical processes. Since potential vorticity (PV) is conserved following fluid flow in adiabatic, frictionless circumstances, it is possible to isolate the effects of non-conservative processes by accumulating PV changes in an air-mass relative framework. This “PV tracer technique” is used to accumulate separately the effects on PV of each of the different non-conservative processes represented in a numerical model of the atmosphere. Dynamical cores are not exactly conservative because they introduce, explicitly or implicitly, some level of dissipation and adjustment of prognostic model variables which acts to modify PV. Here, the PV tracers technique is extended to diagnose the cumulative effect of the non-conservation of PV by a dynamical core and its characteristics relative to the PV modification by parametrized physical processes. Quantification using the Met Office Unified Model reveals that the magnitude of the non-conservation of PV by the dynamical core is comparable to those from physical processes. Moreover, the residual of the PV budget, when tracing the effects of the dynamical core and physical processes, is at least an order of magnitude smaller than the PV tracers associated with the most active physical processes. The implication of this work is that the non-conservation of PV by a dynamical core can be assessed in case studies with a full suite of physics parametrizations and directly compared with the PV modification by parametrized physical processes. The nonconservation of PV by the dynamical core is shown to move the position of the extratropical tropopause while the parametrized physical processes have a lesser effect at the tropopause level

Psychiatric services utilization in completed suicides of a youth centres population

BACKGROUND: From a retrospective study of youth centres (YCs) and coroner's files, we investigated youths' history of medical service utilization who died by suicide. This is the second of two papers on YCs population, the first paper having shown that the rate of psychopathology was higher in the YCs population compared to the general adolescent population. METHODS: From 1995 to 2000, 422 youths, aged 18 years and younger, died as a result of suicide in Quebec. More than one-third received services from YCs at some point. Using the provincial physician payment and hospitalization database, we examined physical and psychiatric service utilization according to time intervals, as well as hospitalization for psychiatric reasons in the individuals' lifetime and in the year preceding suicide. Suicides were matched to living YCs youths for age, sex, and geographic area. YCs controls were then subdivided into two groups based on file information pertaining to the presence or absence of suicidal behavior or ideation. RESULTS: Compared to living YCs youths, suicides had a higher rate of psychiatric service utilization in the week, month, 90 days, and year preceding suicide, as well as higher levels of lifetime hospitalization for psychiatric reasons than controls with or without a history of suicidal behavior or ideation. We found that 28.3% YCs suicides made use of psychiatric services in the year preceding suicide. CONCLUSION: The rate of psychiatric service utilization by YCs youth suicides is substantially inferior to the needs of this population. Our study underscores the need for appropriate recognition of psychiatric and suicidal problems among YCs population by social and psycho-educational professionals. At the same time, it highlights the issues of general practitioners' risk identification, psychiatric referral and treatment. Our findings suggest the need for improved organization and coordination of psychiatric services to ameliorate treatment delivery

Parents just don't understand: Parent-offspring conflict over mate choice

Previous research reveals that children and parents are not in complete agreement over which traits are most important for the mate of the child. Children tend to prefer traits that suggest genetic quality, whereas parents prefer characteristics that suggest high parental investment and cooperation with the ingroup. Using a sample of parents, mothers (n = 234) and fathers (n =240) the hypothesis was supported; parents perceived characteristics indicating a lack of genetic quality as being more unacceptable to the child, while characteristics indicating a lack of parental investment and cooperation with the ingroup were more unacceptable to themselves. Sex differences between mothers and fathers and sons and daughters were explored

Amorphous alumina in the extended atmosphere of Alpha Orionis

In this paper we study the extended atmosphere of the late-type supergiant Alpha Orionis. Infrared spectroscopy of red supergiants reveals strong molecular bands, some of which do not originate in the photosphere but in a cooler layer of molecular material above it. Lately, these layers have been spatially resolved by near and mid-IR interferometry. In this paper, we try to reconcile the IR interferometric and ISO-SWS spectroscopic results on Alpha Orionis with a thorough modelling of the photosphere, molecular layer(s) and dust shell. From the ISO and near-IR interferometric observations, we find that Alpha Orionis has only a very low density water layer close above the photosphere. However, mid-IR interferometric observations and a narrow-slit N-band spectrum suggest much larger extra-photospheric opacity close to the photosphere at those wavelengths, even when taking into account the detached dust shell. We argue that this cannot be due to the water layer, and that another source of mid-IR opacity must be present. We show that this opacity source is probably neither molecular nor chromospheric. Rather, we present amorphous alumina (Al2O3) as the best candidate and discuss this hypothesis in the framework of dust-condensation scenarios.Comment: 15 pages, 18 figures, accepted for publication in A&