Numerical convergence of the block-maxima approach to the Generalized Extreme Value distribution

In this paper we perform an analytical and numerical study of Extreme Value distributions in discrete dynamical systems. In this setting, recent works have shown how to get a statistics of extremes in agreement with the classical Extreme Value Theory. We pursue these investigations by giving analytical expressions of Extreme Value distribution parameters for maps that have an absolutely continuous invariant measure. We compare these analytical results with numerical experiments in which we study the convergence to limiting distributions using the so called block-maxima approach, pointing out in which cases we obtain robust estimation of parameters. In regular maps for which mixing properties do not hold, we show that the fitting procedure to the classical Extreme Value Distribution fails, as expected. However, we obtain an empirical distribution that can be explained starting from a different observable function for which Nicolis et al. [2006] have found analytical results.Comment: 34 pages, 7 figures; Journal of Statistical Physics 201

Simulating maize yield in sub-tropical conditions of southern Brazil using Glam model

The objective of this work was to evaluate the feasibility of simulating maize yield in a sub‑tropical region of southern Brazil using the general large area model (Glam). A 16‑year time series of daily weather data were used. The model was adjusted and tested as an alternative for simulating maize yield at small and large spatial scales. Simulated and observed grain yields were highly correlated (r above 0.8; p<0.01) at large scales (greater than 100,000 km2), with variable and mostly lower correlations (r from 0.65 to 0.87; p<0.1) at small spatial scales (lower than 10,000 km2). Large area models can contribute to monitoring or forecasting regional patterns of variability in maize production in the region, providing a basis for agricultural decision making, and Glam‑Maize is one of the alternatives

The SUrvey for Pulsars and Extragalactic Radio Bursts – II. New FRB discoveries and their follow-up

We report the discovery of four Fast Radio Bursts (FRBs) in the ongoing SUrvey for Pulsars and Extragalactic Radio Bursts at the Parkes Radio Telescope: FRBs 150610, 151206, 151230 and 160102. Our real-time discoveries have enabled us to conduct extensive, rapid multimessenger follow-up at 12 major facilities sensitive to radio, optical, X-ray, gamma-ray photons and neutrinos on time-scales ranging from an hour to a few months post-burst. No counterparts to the FRBs were found and we provide upper limits on afterglow luminosities. None of the FRBs were seen to repeat. Formal fits to all FRBs show hints of scattering while their intrinsic widths are unresolved in time. FRB 151206 is at low Galactic latitude, FRB 151230 shows a sharp spectral cut-off, and FRB 160102 has the highest dispersion measure (DM = 2596.1 ± 0.3 pc cm−3) detected to date. Three of the FRBs have high dispersion measures (DM > 1500 pc cm−3), favouring a scenario where the DM is dominated by contributions from the intergalactic medium. The slope of the Parkes FRB source counts distribution with fluences >2 Jy ms is α=−2.2+0.6−1.2 and still consistent with a Euclidean distribution (α = −3/2). We also find that the all-sky rate is 1.7+1.5−0.9×103 FRBs/(4π sr)/day above ∼2Jyms and there is currently no strong evidence for a latitude-dependent FRB sky rate