Current Account Dynamics and the Real Exchange Rate: Disentangling the Evidence

We study the main shocks driving current account fluctuations for the G6 economies. Our theoretical framework features a standard two-goods inter-temporal model, which is specifically designed to uncover the role of permanent and temporary output shocks and the relation between the real exchange rate and the current account. We build a SVAR model including the world real interest rate, net output, the real exchange rate, and the current account and identify four structural shocks. Our results suggest four main conclusions: i) there is substantial support for the two-good intertemporal model with time-varying interest rate, since both external supply and preference shocks account for an important proportion of current account fluctuations; ii) temporary domestic shocks account for a large proportion of current account fluctuations, but the excess response of the current account is less pronounced than in previous studies; iii) our results alleviate the previous puzzle in the literature that a shock that explains little about net output changes can explain a large proportion of current account changes; iv) the nature of the shock matters to shape the relationship between the current account and the real exchange rate, which explains why is it difficult to find a simple statistical relationship between these two variables

Chronic urban hotspots and agricultural drainage drive microbial pollution of karst water resources in rural developing regions

Contamination of surface and groundwater systems with human and animal faecal matter leads to exposure of reliant populations to disease causing micro-organisms. This exposure route remains a major cause of infection and mortality in developing countries, particularly rural regions. To meet the UN's sustainable development goal 6: Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all, we need to identify the key controls on faecal contamination across relevant settings. We conducted a high-resolution spatial study of E. coli concentration in catchment drainage waters over 6 months in a mixed land-use catchment in the extensive karst region extending across impoverished southwest China. Using a mixed effects modelling framework, we tested how land-use, karst hydrology, antecedent meteorological conditions, agricultural cycles, hydrochemistry, and position in the catchment system affected E. coli concentrations. Land-use was the best predictor of faecal contamination levels. Sites in urban areas were chronically highly contaminated, but water draining from agricultural land was also consistently contaminated and there was a catchment wide pulse of higher E. coli concentrations, turbidity, and discharge during paddy field drainage. E. coli concentration increased with increasing antecedent rainfall across all land-use types and compartments of the karst hydrological system (underground and surface waters), but decreased with increasing pH. This is interpreted to be a result of processes affecting pH, such as water residence time, rather than the direct effect of pH on E. coli survival. Improved containment and treatment of human waste in areas of higher population density would likely reduce contamination hotspots, and further research is needed to identify the nature and distribution of sources in agricultural land

Political institutions and debt crises

This paper shows that political institutions matter in explaining defaults on external and domestic debt obligations. We explore a large number of political and macroeconomic variables using a non-parametric technique to predict safety from default. The advantage of this technique is that it is able to identify patterns in the data that are not captured in standard probit analysis. We find that political factors matter, and do so in different ways for democratic and non-democratic regimes, and for domestic and external debt. In democracies, a parliamentary system or sufficient checks and balances almost guarantee the absence of default on external debt when economic fundamentals or liquidity are sufficiently strong. In dictatorships, high stability and tenure play a similar role for default on domestic debt

The dependence of the anomalous J/psi suppression on the number of participant nucleons

The observation of an anomalous J/psi suppression in Pb-Pb collisions by the NA50 Collaboration can be considered as the most striking indication for the deconfinement of quarks and gluons at SPS energies. In this Letter, we determine the J/psi suppression pattern as a function of the forward hadronic energy E-ZDC measured in a Zero Degree Calorimeter (ZDC). The direct connection between EZDC and the geometry of the collision allows us to calculate, within a Glauber approach, the precise relation between the number of participant nucleons N-part and E-ZDC. Then, we check if the experimental data can be better explained by a sudden or a smooth onset of the anomalous J/psi suppression as a function of the number of participants. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

The effects of pioglitazone, a PPARγ receptor agonist, on the abuse liability of oxycodone among nondependent opioid users

Aims: Activation of PPARγ by pioglitazone (PIO) has shown some efficacy in attenuating addictive-like responses in laboratory animals. The ability of PIO to alter the effects of opioids in humans has not been characterized in a controlled laboratory setting. The proposed investigation sought to examine the effects of PIO on the subjective, analgesic, physiological and cognitive effects of oxycodone (OXY). Methods: During this investigation, nondependent prescription opioid abusers (N = 17 completers) were maintained for 2-3 weeks on ascending daily doses of PIO (0 mg, 15 mg, 45 mg) prior to completing a laboratory session assessing the aforementioned effects of OXY [using a within-session cumulative dosing procedure (0, 10, and 20 mg, cumulative dose = 30 mg)]. Results: OXY produced typical mu opioid agonist effects: miosis, decreased pain perception, and decreased respiratory rate. OXY also produced dose-dependent increases in positive subjective responses. Yet, ratings such as: drug "liking," "high," and "good drug effect," were not significantly altered as a function of PIO maintenance dose. Discussion: These data suggest that PIO may not be useful for reducing the abuse liability of OXY. These data were obtained with a sample of nondependent opioid users and therefore may not be applicable to dependent populations or to other opioids. Although PIO failed to alter the abuse liability of OXY, the interaction between glia and opioid receptors is not well understood so the possibility remains that medications that interact with glia in other ways may show more promise

Dilepton production in heavy ion collisions at intermediate energies

We present a unified description of the vector meson and dilepton production in elementary and in heavy ion reactions. The production of vector mesons ($\rho,\omega$) is described via the excitation of nuclear resonances ($R$). The theoretical framework is an extended vector meson dominance model (eVMD). The treatment of the resonance decays $R\longmapsto NV$ with arbitrary spin is covariant and kinematically complete. The eVMD includes thereby excited vector meson states in the transition form factors. This ensures correct asymptotics and provides a unified description of photonic and mesonic decays. The resonance model is successfully applied to the $\omega$ production in $p+p$ reactions. The same model is applied to the dilepton production in elementary reactions ($p+p, p+d$). Corresponding data are well reproduced. However, when the model is applied to heavy ion reactions in the BEVALAC/SIS energy range the experimental dilepton spectra measured by the DLS Collaboration are significantly underestimated at small invariant masses. As a possible solution of this problem the destruction of quantum interference in a dense medium is discussed. A decoherent emission through vector mesons decays enhances the corresponding dilepton yield in heavy ion reactions. In the vicinity of the $\rho/\omega$-peak the reproduction of the data requires further a substantial collisional broadening of the $\rho$ and in particular of the $\omega$ meson.Comment: 32 pages revtex, 19 figures, to appear in PR

Centrality Behaviour of J/ψ\psi Production in Na50

The J/$\psi$ production in 158 A GeV Pb-Pb interactions is studied, in the dimuon decay channel, as a function of centrality, as measured with the electromagnetic or with the very forward calorimeters. After a first sharp variation at mid centrality, both patterns continue to fall down and exhibit a curvature change at high centrality values. This trend excludes any conventional hadronic model and is in agreement with a deconfined quark-gluon phase scenario. We report also preliminary results on the measured charged multiplicity, as given by a dedicated detector.Comment: 5 pages, 7 figures (in eps) talk given at XXXI International Symposium on Multiparticle Dynamics, Sep. 1-7, 2001, Datong China URL http://ismd31.ccnu.edu.cn

Comprehensive analysis of Barkhausen emission spectra using pulse height analysis, frequency spectrum, and pulse wave form analysis

The dependence of magnetic Barkhausen emissions (MBE) upon both field excitation and detection frequencies and excitation wave form was studied in order to investigate two of several crucial factors which affect the emissions. Sinusoidal, triangular, and square wave forms were used to generate the MBE and the pulse height spectra, frequency spectra, and pulse wave forms of these signals were analyzed. The frequency spectra of sinusoidal and triangular alternating field excitations showed similar behavior but the spectrum under square wave excitation was different due to the existence of high frequency components during square wave switching. As yet, no common standard has been agreed upon for parameterization and representation of Barkhausen signals. It appears from this work that field excitation wave form and frequency should define the inputs, while detection frequency range, pulse height spectrum, frequency spectrum, and emitted pulse wave form analysis should be used to quantify the output