Reducing youth suicide : systems modelling and simulation to guide targeted investments across the determinants

Background: Reducing suicidal behaviour (SB) is a critical public health issue globally. The complex interplay of social determinants, service system factors, population demographics, and behavioural dynamics makes it extraordinarily difficult for decision makers to determine the nature and balance of investments required to have the greatest impacts on SB. Real-world experimentation to establish the optimal targeting, timing, scale, frequency, and intensity of investments required across the determinants is unfeasible. Therefore, this study harnesses systems modelling and simulation to guide population-level decision making that represent best strategic allocation of limited resources. Methods: Using a participatory approach, and informed by a range of national, state, and local datasets, a system dynamics model was developed, tested, and validated for a regional population catchment. The model incorporated defined pathways from social determinants of mental health to psychological distress, mental health care, and SB. Intervention scenarios were investigated to forecast their impact on SB over a 20-year period. Results: A combination of social connectedness programs, technology-enabled coordinated care, post-attempt assertive aftercare, reductions in childhood adversity, and increasing youth employment projected the greatest impacts on SB, particularly in a youth population, reducing self-harm hospitalisations (suicide attempts) by 28.5% (95% interval 26.3–30.8%) and suicide deaths by 29.3% (95% interval 27.1–31.5%). Introducing additional interventions beyond the best performing suite of interventions produced only marginal improvement in population level impacts, highlighting that ‘more is not necessarily better.’ Conclusion: Results indicate that targeted investments in addressing the social determinants and in mental health services provides the best opportunity to reduce SB and suicide. Systems modelling and simulation offers a robust approach to leveraging best available research, data, and expert knowledge in a way that helps decision makers respond to the unique characteristics and drivers of SB in their catchments and more effectively focus limited health resources

Running Spectral Index and Formation of Primordial Black Hole in Single Field Inflation Models

A broad range of single field models of inflation are analyzed in light of all relevant recent cosmological data, checking whether they can lead to the formation of long-lived Primordial Black Holes (PBHs). To that end we calculate the spectral index of the power spectrum of primordial perturbations as well as its first and second derivatives. PBH formation is possible only if the spectral index increases significantly at small scales, i.e. large wave number $k$. Since current data indicate that the first derivative $\alpha_S$ of the spectral index $n_S(k_0)$ is negative at the pivot scale $k_0$, PBH formation is only possible in the presence of a sizable and positive second derivative ("running of the running") $\beta_S$. Among the three small-field and five large-field models we analyze, only one small-field model, the "running mass" model, allows PBH formation, for a narrow range of parameters. We also note that none of the models we analyze can accord for a large and negative value of $\alpha_S$, which is weakly preferred by current data.Comment: 26 pages, 5 figures, Refs. added, Minor textual change; version to appear in JCA

Exploring the singlet scalar dark matter from direct detections and neutrino signals via its annihilation in the Sun

We explore the singlet scalar dark matter (DM) from direct detections and high energy neutrino signals generated by the solar DM annihilation. Two singlet scalar DM models are discussed, one is the real singlet scalar DM model as the simple extension of the standard model (SSDM-SM) with a discrete Z_2 symmetry, and another is the complex singlet scalar DM model as the simple extension of the left-right symmetric two Higgs bidoublet model (SSDM-2HBDM) with $P$ and CP symmetries. To derive the Sun capture rate, we consider the uncertainties in the hadronic matrix elements and calculate the spin-independent DM-nucleon elastic scattering cross section. We find that the predicted neutrino induced upgoing muon fluxes in the region 3.7 GeV < m_D < 4.2 GeV slightly exceed the Super-Kamiokande limit in the SSDM-SM. However, this exceeded region can be excluded by the current DM direct detection experiments. For the SSDM-2HBDM, one may adjust the Yukawa couplings to avoid the direct detection limits and enhance the predicted muon fluxes. For the allowed parameter space of the SSDM-SM and SSDM-2HBDM, the produced muon fluxes in the Super-Kamiokande and muon event rates in the IceCube are less than the experiment upper bound and atmosphere background, respectively.Comment: 21 pages, 5 figures, 1 table. Accepted for publication in Nuclear Physics

Entrepreneurial sons, patriarchy and the Colonels' experiment in Thessaly, rural Greece

Existing studies within the field of institutional entrepreneurship explore how entrepreneurs influence change in economic institutions. This paper turns the attention of scholarly inquiry on the antecedents of deinstitutionalization and more specifically, the influence of entrepreneurship in shaping social institutions such as patriarchy. The paper draws from the findings of ethnographic work in two Greek lowland village communities during the military Dictatorship (1967–1974). Paradoxically this era associated with the spread of mechanization, cheap credit, revaluation of labour and clear means-ends relations, signalled entrepreneurial sons’ individuated dissent and activism who were now able to question the Patriarch’s authority, recognize opportunities and act as unintentional agents of deinstitutionalization. A ‘different’ model of institutional change is presented here, where politics intersects with entrepreneurs, in changing social institutions. This model discusses the external drivers of institutional atrophy and how handling dissensus (and its varieties over historical time) is instrumental in enabling institutional entrepreneurship

Unifying darko-lepto-genesis with scalar triplet inflation

We present a scalar triplet extension of the standard model to unify the origin of inflation with neutrino mass, asymmetric dark matter and leptogenesis. In presence of non-minimal couplings to gravity the scalar triplet, mixed with the standard model Higgs, plays the role of inflaton in the early Universe, while its decay to SM Higgs, lepton and dark matter simultaneously generate an asymmetry in the visible and dark matter sectors. On the other hand, in the low energy effective theory the induced vacuum expectation value of the triplet gives sub-eV Majorana masses to active neutrinos. We investigate the model parameter space leading to successful inflation as well as the observed dark matter to baryon abundance. Assuming the standard model like Higgs mass to be at 125-126 GeV, we found that the mass scale of the scalar triplet to be ~ O(10^9) GeV and its trilinear coupling to doublet Higgs is ~ 0.09 so that it not only evades the possibility of having a metastable vacuum in the standard model, but also lead to a rich phenomenological consequences as stated above. Moreover, we found that the scalar triplet inflation strongly constrains the quartic couplings, while allowing for a wide range of Yukawa couplings which generate the CP asymmetries in the visible and dark matter sectors.Comment: (v1) 29 pages, 11 figures; (v2) 30 pages, 1 figure added and discussions expanded, to appear in Nuclear Physics

Are mice good models for human neuromuscular disease? Comparing muscle excursions in walking between mice and humans

The mouse is one of the most widely used animal models to study neuromuscular diseases and test new therapeutic strategies. However, findings from successful pre-clinical studies using mouse models frequently fail to translate to humans due to various factors. Differences in muscle function between the two species could be crucial but often have been overlooked. The purpose of this study was to evaluate and compare muscle excursions in walking between mice and humans