I cambiamenti climatici: la sfida del XXI secolo

There is a large gap between the actions required to avoid a dangerous warming of the planet, and those already decided to contrast it. The more time passes, the more the pessimistic visions obtain valid motivations and reasons. In order to radically change in few decades an energetic system and a predatory attitude towards the planet’s resources, it is necessary to recognize the climate crisis as a systemic one, as a problem of justice and equity for the future generations. The climate science should help to understand the importance of this challenge, by emphasizing the consequences of today’s decisions for the future generations. To recover our reasons to deal with posterity, both as individuals and community, is a bigger endeavor. To understand the importance of the climate change requires not only more knowledge, but also the acceptance of the planetary limits, the redefinition of human expectations, and also a level of emotional understanding that is not sufficient today

A decision support tool for response to global change in marine systems: the IMBER-ADApT Framework

Global change is occurring now, often with consequences far beyond those anticipated. Although there is a wide range of assessment approaches available to address-specific aspects of global change, there is currently no framework to identify what governance responses have worked and where, what has facilitated change and what preventative options are possible. To respond to this need, we present an integrated assessment framework that builds on knowledge learned from past experience of responses to global change in marine systems, to enable decision-makers, researchers, managers and local stakeholders to: (i) make decisions efficiently; (ii) triage and improve their responses; and (iii) evaluate where to most effectively allocate resources to reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience of coastal people. This integrated assessment framework, IMBER-ADApT is intended to enable and enhance decision-making through the development, a typology of case-studies providing lessons on how the natural, social and governance systems respond to the challenges of global change. The typology is developed from a database of case-studies detailing the systems affected by change, responses to change and, critically, an appraisal of these responses, generating knowledge-based solutions that can be applied to other comparable situations. Fisheries, which suffer from multiple pressures, are the current focus of the proposed framework, but it could be applied to a wide range of global change issues. IMBER-ADApT has the potential to contribute to timely, cost-effective policy and governing decision-making and response. It offers cross-scale learning to help ameliorate, and eventually prevent, loss of livelihoods, food sources and habitat.Department of HE and Training approved lis

Simple, policy friendly, ecological interaction models from uncertain data and expert opinion

In the marine environment, humans exploit natural ecosystems for food and economic benefit. Challenging policy goals have been set to protect resources, species, communities and habitats, yet ecologists often have sparse data on interactions occurring in the system to assess policy outcomes. This paper presents a technique, loosely based on Bayesian Belief Networks, to create simple models which 1) predict whether individual species within a community will decline or increase in population size, 2) encapsulate uncertainty in the predictions in an intuitive manner and 3) require limited knowledge of the ecosystem and functional parameters required to model it. We develop our model for a UK rocky shore community, to utilise existing knowledge of species interactions for model validation purposes. However, we also test the role of expert opinion, without full scientific knowledge of species interactions, by asking non-UK based marine scientists to derive parameters for the model (non-UK scientists are not familiar with the exact communities being described and will need to extrapolate from existing knowledge in a similar manner to model a poorly studied system). We find these differ little from the parameters derived by ourselves and make little difference to the final model predictions. We also test our model against simple experimental manipulations, and find that the most important changes in community structure as a result of manipulations correspond well to the model predictions with both our, and non-UK expert parameterisation. The simplicity of the model, nature of the outputs, and the user-friendly interface makes it potentially suitable for policy, conservation and management work on multispecies interactions in a wide range of marine ecosystems

Denying bogus skepticism in climate change and tourism research

This final response to the two climate change denial papers by Shani and Arad further highlights the inaccuracies, misinformation and errors in their commentaries. The obfuscation of scientific research and the consensus on anthropogenic climate change may have significant long-term negative consequences for better understanding the implications of climate change and climate policy for tourism and create confusion and delay in developing and implementing tourism sector responses