LOGISTICS AND SUPPLY CHAIN STRATEGIES IN GRAIN EXPORTING

During the past decade, the grain shipping industry has become highly competitive and technologically advanced. These changes, along with the introduction of innovative shipping mechanisms, have made logistics management an important source of opportunity and risk for grain shippers. In this study, a stochastic simulation model was developed to evaluate the tradeoffs and effects of key variables on logistical performance in managing the grain supply chain. Average demurrage cost for the supply chain was $2.03 million with the greatest cost being for railcars and the least cost being for barges. Of the stochastic variables modeled, changes in export demand had the greatest impact on demurrage costs.Supply Chain, Grain Shipping, Logistics, Demurrage, Guaranteed Freight, Industrial Organization,

LOGISTICAL STRATEGIES AND RISKS IN CANADIAN GRAIN MARKETING

Supply chain management in grain marketing has become very important with the maturity of the industry. This is particularly important in the Canadian grain marketing system which has experienced disruptions for various reasons over many years. These problems have been the topic of numerous industry evaluations, have resulted in a complaint about service obligations and recently have been addressed by the Estey Commission. A detailed model of the supply chain in the Canadian grain logistics system was developed in this paper to evaluate factors that cause disruptions, as well as the effect of several important logistics and marketing strategies on system performance. The results indicated that in a normal year there is sufficient randomness throughout the various elements of the system that it is expected that demurrage at the West Coast would be a major cost. However, the amount of service disruptions and demurrage are affected by several important factors including the distribution of tough and damp grains, mis-graded grain, and the level of exportable supplies. There are several important strategic variables that have important effects on system performance. These include the aggressiveness in selling relative to capacity, and the level of beginning port stocks.Grain Marketing, Transportation, Supply Chain Management, Logistics, Marketing,

A case control study to determine the association between Perthes’ disease and the recalled use of tobacco during pregnancy, and biological markers of current tobacco smoke exposure

Aims: It is well established that there is a strong association between Perthes’ disease and worsening socioeconomic deprivation. It has been suggested that the primary determinant driving this association is exposure to tobacco smoke. This study aimed to examine this hypothesis. Patients and Methods: A hospital case-control study (n = 149/146) examined the association between tobacco smoke exposure and Perthes’ disease, adjusting for area-level socioeconomic deprivation. Tobacco smoke exposure was assessed by parental questionnaire of smoking habits during pregnancy, and by quantitative assay of current exposure using the urinary cotinine-creatinine ratio, which is a widely used and validated measure of tobacco smoke exposure. Results: The odds of Perthes’ disease significantly increased with reported in utero exposure after adjustment for socioeconomic deprivation (maternal smoking odds ratio (OR) 2.06, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.17 to 3.63; paternal smoking OR 2.09, 95% CI 1.26 to 3.46). The cotinine-creatinine ratio was significantly greater in cases, OR 1.63 (95% CI 1.09 to 2.43), suggesting a greater ‘dose’ of current tobacco exposure. Conclusion: An association exists between tobacco smoke exposure and Perthes’ disease but we remain unable to disentangle the association with socioeconomic deprivation

Wavelet analysis of epileptic spikes

Interictal spikes and sharp waves in human EEG are characteristic signatures of epilepsy. These potentials originate as a result of synchronous, pathological discharge of many neurons. The reliable detection of such potentials has been the long standing problem in EEG analysis, especially after long-term monitoring became common in investigation of epileptic patients. The traditional definition of a spike is based on its amplitude, duration, sharpness, and emergence from its background. However, spike detection systems built solely around this definition are not reliable due to the presence of numerous transients and artifacts. We use wavelet transform to analyze the properties of EEG manifestations of epilepsy. We demonstrate that the behavior of wavelet transform of epileptic spikes across scales can constitute the foundation of a relatively simple yet effective detection algorithm.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

Thermodynamic Description of the Relaxation of Two-Dimensional Euler Turbulence Using Tsallis Statistics

Euler turbulence has been experimentally observed to relax to a metaequilibrium state that does not maximize the Boltzmann entropy, but rather seems to minimize enstrophy. We show that a recent generalization of thermodynamics and statistics due to Tsallis is capable of explaining this phenomenon in a natural way. The maximization of the generalized entropy $S_{1/2}$ for this system leads to precisely the same profiles predicted by the Restricted Minimum Enstrophy theory of Huang and Driscoll. This makes possible the construction of a comprehensive thermodynamic description of Euler turbulence.Comment: 15 pages, RevTe

Comparison between simulated and observed LHC beam backgrounds in the ATLAS experiment at Ebeam =4 TeV

Results of dedicated Monte Carlo simulations of beam-induced background (BIB) in the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) are presented and compared with data recorded in 2012. During normal physics operation this background arises mainly from scattering of the 4 TeV protons on residual gas in the beam pipe. Methods of reconstructing the BIB signals in the ATLAS detector, developed and implemented in the simulation chain based on the \textscFluka Monte Carlo simulation package, are described. The interaction rates are determined from the residual gas pressure distribution in the LHC ring in order to set an absolute scale on the predicted rates of BIB so that they can be compared quantitatively with data. Through these comparisons the origins of the BIB leading to different observables in the ATLAS detectors are analysed. The level of agreement between simulation results and BIB measurements by ATLAS in 2012 demonstrates that a good understanding of the origin of BIB has been reached

Predicting at-risk opioid use three months after ed visit for trauma: Results from the AURORA study

OBJECTIVE: Whether short-term, low-potency opioid prescriptions for acute pain lead to future at-risk opioid use remains controversial and inadequately characterized. Our objective was to measure the association between emergency department (ED) opioid analgesic exposure after a physical, trauma-related event and subsequent opioid use. We hypothesized ED opioid analgesic exposure is associated with subsequent at-risk opioid use. METHODS: Participants were enrolled in AURORA, a prospective cohort study of adult patients in 29 U.S., urban EDs receiving care for a traumatic event. Exclusion criteria were hospital admission, persons reporting any non-medical opioid use (e.g., opioids without prescription or taking more than prescribed for euphoria) in the 30 days before enrollment, and missing or incomplete data regarding opioid exposure or pain. We used multivariable logistic regression to assess the relationship between ED opioid exposure and at-risk opioid use, defined as any self-reported non-medical opioid use after initial ED encounter or prescription opioid use at 3-months. RESULTS: Of 1441 subjects completing 3-month follow-up, 872 participants were included for analysis. At-risk opioid use occurred within 3 months in 33/620 (5.3%, CI: 3.7,7.4) participants without ED opioid analgesic exposure; 4/16 (25.0%, CI: 8.3, 52.6) with ED opioid prescription only; 17/146 (11.6%, CI: 7.1, 18.3) with ED opioid administration only; 12/90 (13.3%, CI: 7.4, 22.5) with both. Controlling for clinical factors, adjusted odds ratios (aORs) for at-risk opioid use after ED opioid exposure were: ED prescription only: 4.9 (95% CI 1.4, 17.4); ED administration for analgesia only: 2.0 (CI 1.0, 3.8); both: 2.8 (CI 1.2, 6.5). CONCLUSIONS: ED opioids were associated with subsequent at-risk opioid use within three months in a geographically diverse cohort of adult trauma patients. This supports need for prospective studies focused on the long-term consequences of ED opioid analgesic exposure to estimate individual risk and guide therapeutic decision-making