A semi-parametric model for lactation curves: development and application

We propose a semi-parametric model for lactation curves that, along with stage of lactation, accounts for day of the year at milk recording and stage of gestation. Lactation is described as having 3 different phases defined by 2 change points of which the second is a function of gestation stage. Season of milk recording is modelled using cosine and sine functions. As an application, the model is used to estimate the association between intramammary infections (IMI) dynamics as measured by somatic cell count (SCC) over the dry period and the shape of the lactation curve. Milk recording data collected in 2128 herds from England and Wales between 2004 and 2007 were used in the analysis. From a random sample of 1000 of these herds, smoothed milk production was used to test the behaviour of the model and estimate model parameters. The first change point was set at 60 days in milk. The second change point was set at 100 days of gestation or 200 days in milk when the latter was not available. Using data from the 1128 remaining herds, multilevel models were then used to model individual test-day milk production within lactations within herds. Average milk production at 60 days in milk for cows of parities 1, 2, 3 and greater than 3 were 26.9 kg, 31.6 kg, 34.4 kg and 34.7 kg respectively and, after this stage, decreases in milk production per 100 days milk of lactation were 3.1 kg, 5.1 kg, 6.3 kg and 6.7 kg respectively. Compared to cows that had an SCC below 200,000 cells/mL on both the last milk recording in a lactation and the first milk recording in the following lactation, cows that had an SCC greater than 200,000 cells/mL on their first milk recording after calving had an estimated loss of milk production of between 216 and 518 kg depending on parity. These estimates demonstrate the impact of the dynamics of SCC during the dry period on milk production during the following lactation

The Early Social Cognition Inventory (ESCI): an examination of its psychometric properties from birth to 47 months

Social cognition refers to a broad range of cognitive processes and skills that allow individuals to interact with and understand others, including a variety of skills from infancy through preschool and beyond, e.g., joint attention, imitation, and belief understanding. However, no measures examine socio-cognitive development from birth through preschool. Current test batteries and parent-report measures focus either on infancy, or toddlerhood through preschool (and beyond). We report six studies in which we developed and tested a new 21-item parent-report measure of social cognition targeting 0–47 months: the Early Social Cognition Inventory (ESCI). Study 1 (N = 295) revealed the ESCI has excellent internal reliability, and a two-factor structure capturing social cognition and age. Study 2 (N = 605) also showed excellent internal reliability and confirmed the two-factor structure. Study 3 (N = 84) found a medium correlation between the ESCI and a researcher-administered social cognition task battery. Study 4 (N = 46) found strong 1-month test–retest reliability. Study 5 found longitudinal stability (6 months: N = 140; 12 months: N = 39), and inter-observer reliability between parents (N = 36) was good, and children’s scores increased significantly over 6 and 12 months. Study 6 showed the ESCI was internally reliable within countries (Australia, Canada, United Kingdom, United States, Trinidad and Tobago); parent ethnicity; parent education; and age groups from 4–39 months. ESCI scores positively correlated with household income (UK); children with siblings had higher scores; and Australian parents reported lower scores than American, British, and Canadian parents

Repeating the Errors of Our Parents? Family-of-Origin Spouse Violence and Observed Conflict Management in Engaged Couples

Based on a developmental social learning analysis, it was hypothesized that observing parental violence predisposes partners to difficulties in managing couple conflict. Seventy-one engaged couples were assessed on their observation of parental violence in their family of origin. All couples were videotaped discussing two areas of current relationship conflict, and their cognitions during the interactions were assessed using a video-mediated recall procedure. Couples in which the male partner reported observing parental violence (male-exposed couples) showed more negative affect and communication during conflict discussions than couples in which neither partner reported observing parental violence (unexposed couples). Couples in which only the female partner reported observing parental violence (female- exposed couples) did not differ from unexposed couples in their affect or behavior. Female-exposed couples reported more negative cognitions than unexposed couples, but male-exposed couples did not differ from unexposed couples in their reported cognitions

A Bayesian micro-simulation to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of interventions for mastitis control during the dry period in UK dairy herds

Importance of the dry period with respect to mastitis control is now well established although the precise interventions that reduce the risk of acquiring intramammary infections during this time are not clearly understood. There are very few intervention studies that have measured the clinical efficacy of specific mastitis interventions within a cost-effectiveness framework so there remains a large degree of uncertainty about the impact of a specific intervention and its costeffectiveness. The aim of this study was to use a Bayesian framework to investigate the cost-effectiveness of mastitis controls during the dry period. Data were assimilated from 77 UK dairy farms that participated in a British national mastitis control programme during 2009–2012 in which the majority of intramammary infections were acquired during the dry period. The data consisted of clinical mastitis (CM) and somatic cell count (SCC) records, herd management practices and details of interventions that were implemented by the farmer as part of the control plan. The outcomes used to measure the effectiveness of the interventions were i) changes in the incidence rate of clinical mastitis during the first 30 days after calving and ii) the rate at which cows gained new infections during the dry period (measured by SCC changes across the dry period from 200,000 cells/ml). A Bayesian one-step microsimulation model was constructed such that posterior predictions from the model incorporated uncertainty in all parameters. The incremental net benefit was calculated across 10,000 Markov chain Monte Carlo iterations, to estimate the cost-benefit (and associated uncertainty) of each mastitis intervention. Interventions identified as being cost-effective in most circumstances included selecting dry-cow therapy at the cow level, dry-cow rations formulated by a qualified nutritionist, use of individual calving pens, first milking cows within 24 h of calving and spreading bedding evenly in dry-cow yards. The results of this study highlighted the efficacy of specific mastitis interventions in UK conditions which, when incorporated into a costeffectiveness framework, can be used to optimize decision making in mastitis control. This intervention study provides an example of how an intuitive and clinically useful Bayesian approach can be used to form the basis of an on-farm decision support tool

Nucleus gracilis responses to knee joint motion: A frequency response study

1. (1) A systems analysis approach was used to study the dynamic responses of sensory cells in thenucleus gracilis of anesthetized cats. Sinusoidal changes in knee angle were used as inputs and the average firing rate of single gracile cells was recorded as the output. Frequency response functions were derived from data displayed as Bode plots.2. (2) Fifty-nine cells were studied. The majority of these cells exhibited an acceleration sensitivity but 5 cells exhibited a velocity sensitivity. No position sensitivity was evident and no slowly adapting or tonic responses were recorded.3. (3) The acceleration sensitive cells demonstrated significant non-linear responses. The gain associated with their frequency response function depended upon both static knee angle and input excursion amplitude. These cells also exhibited a bi-directional response to sinusoidal and square wave inputs.4. (4) These data are taken as evidence that the dorsal columns may carry acceleration and velocity information from receptors in the knee joint, but that positional information may travel by other pathways to cells located in other areas. If such is the case, lesion experiments involving the dorsal columns should reveal loss of velocity and acceleration sense but no decrement in position sense.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/33751/1/0000003.pd

Risk profiles and one-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in India: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF Registry.

BACKGROUND: The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) is an ongoing prospective noninterventional registry, which is providing important information on the baseline characteristics, treatment patterns, and 1-year outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This report describes data from Indian patients recruited in this registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 52,014 patients with newly diagnosed AF were enrolled globally; of these, 1388 patients were recruited from 26 sites within India (2012-2016). In India, the mean age was 65.8 years at diagnosis of NVAF. Hypertension was the most prevalent risk factor for AF, present in 68.5% of patients from India and in 76.3% of patients globally (P < 0.001). Diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD) were prevalent in 36.2% and 28.1% of patients as compared with global prevalence of 22.2% and 21.6%, respectively (P < 0.001 for both). Antiplatelet therapy was the most common antithrombotic treatment in India. With increasing stroke risk, however, patients were more likely to receive oral anticoagulant therapy [mainly vitamin K antagonist (VKA)], but average international normalized ratio (INR) was lower among Indian patients [median INR value 1.6 (interquartile range {IQR}: 1.3-2.3) versus 2.3 (IQR 1.8-2.8) (P < 0.001)]. Compared with other countries, patients from India had markedly higher rates of all-cause mortality [7.68 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval 6.32-9.35) vs 4.34 (4.16-4.53), P < 0.0001], while rates of stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding were lower after 1 year of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Compared to previously published registries from India, the GARFIELD-AF registry describes clinical profiles and outcomes in Indian patients with AF of a different etiology. The registry data show that compared to the rest of the world, Indian AF patients are younger in age and have more diabetes and CAD. Patients with a higher stroke risk are more likely to receive anticoagulation therapy with VKA but are underdosed compared with the global average in the GARFIELD-AF. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362

First international descriptive and interventional survey for cholesterol and non-cholesterol sterol determination by gas- and liquid- chromatography–Urgent need for harmonisation of analytical methods

Serum concentrations of lathosterol, the plant sterols campesterol and sitosterol and the cholesterol metabolite 5α-cholestanol are widely used as surrogate markers of cholesterol synthesis and absorption, respectively. Increasing numbers of laboratories utilize a broad spectrum of well-established and recently developed methods for the determination of cholesterol and non-cholesterol sterols (NCS). In order to evaluate the quality of these measurements and to identify possible sources of analytical errors our group initiated the first international survey for cholesterol and NCS. The cholesterol and NCS survey was structured as a two-part survey which took place in the years 2013 and 2014. The first survey part was designed as descriptive, providing information about the variation of reported results from different laboratories. A set of two lyophilized pooled sera (A and B) was sent to twenty laboratories specialized in chromatographic lipid analysis. The different sterols were quantified either by gas chromatography-flame ionization detection, gas chromatography- or liquid chromatography-mass selective detection. The participants were requested to determine cholesterol and NCS concentrations in the provided samples as part of their normal laboratory routine. The second part was designed as interventional survey. Twenty-two laboratories agreed to participate and received again two different lyophilized pooled sera (C and D). In contrast to the first international survey, each participant received standard stock solutions with defined concentrations of cholesterol and NCS. The participants were requested to use diluted calibration solutions from the provided standard stock solutions for quantification of cholesterol and NCS. In both surveys, each laboratory used its own internal standard (5α-cholestane, epicoprostanol or deuterium labelled sterols). Main outcome of the survey was, that unacceptably high interlaboratory variations for cholesterol and NCS concentrations are reported, even when the individual laboratories used the same calibration material. We discuss different sources of errors and recommend all laboratories analysing cholesterol and NCS to participate in regular quality control programs

Measurement of the νe and total 8B solar neutrino fluxes with the Sudbury Neutrino Observatory phase-III data set

This paper details the solar neutrino analysis of the 385.17-day phase-III data set acquired by the Sudbury Neutrino Observatory (SNO). An array of 3He proportional counters was installed in the heavy-water target to measure precisely the rate of neutrino-deuteron neutral-current interactions. This technique to determine the total active 8B solar neutrino flux was largely independent of the methods employed in previous phases. The total flux of active neutrinos was measured to be 5.54-0.31+0.33(stat.)-0.34+0.36(syst.)×106 cm-2 s-1, consistent with previous measurements and standard solar models. A global analysis of solar and reactor neutrino mixing parameters yielded the best-fit values of Δm2=7.59-0.21+0.19×10 -5eV2 and θ=34.4-1.2+1.3degrees