Using polygenic scores and clinical data for bipolar disorder patient stratification and lithium response prediction: machine learning approach

Themed Issue: Precision Medicine and Personalised Healthcare in PsychiatryBACKGROUND: Response to lithium in patients with bipolar disorder is associated with clinical and transdiagnostic genetic factors. The predictive combination of these variables might help clinicians better predict which patients will respond to lithium treatment. AIMS: To use a combination of transdiagnostic genetic and clinical factors to predict lithium response in patients with bipolar disorder. METHOD: This study utilised genetic and clinical data (n = 1034) collected as part of the International Consortium on Lithium Genetics (ConLi⁺Gen) project. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) were computed for schizophrenia and major depressive disorder, and then combined with clinical variables using a cross-validated machine-learning regression approach. Unimodal, multimodal and genetically stratified models were trained and validated using ridge, elastic net and random forest regression on 692 patients with bipolar disorder from ten study sites using leave-site-out cross-validation. All models were then tested on an independent test set of 342 patients. The best performing models were then tested in a classification framework. RESULTS: The best performing linear model explained 5.1% (P = 0.0001) of variance in lithium response and was composed of clinical variables, PRS variables and interaction terms between them. The best performing non-linear model used only clinical variables and explained 8.1% (P = 0.0001) of variance in lithium response. A priori genomic stratification improved non-linear model performance to 13.7% (P = 0.0001) and improved the binary classification of lithium response. This model stratified patients based on their meta-polygenic loadings for major depressive disorder and schizophrenia and was then trained using clinical data. CONCLUSIONS: Using PRS to first stratify patients genetically and then train machine-learning models with clinical predictors led to large improvements in lithium response prediction. When used with other PRS and biological markers in the future this approach may help inform which patients are most likely to respond to lithium treatment.Micah Cearns, Azmeraw T. Amare, Klaus Oliver Schubert, Anbupalam Thalamuthu, Joseph Frank, Fabian Streit, Mazda Adli, Nirmala Akula, Kazufumi Akiyama, Raffaella Ardau, Bárbara Arias, Jean- Michel Aubry, Lena Backlund, Abesh Kumar Bhattacharjee, Frank Bellivier, Antonio Benabarre, Susanne Bengesser, Joanna M. Biernacka, Armin Birner, Clara Brichant-Petitjean, Pablo Cervantes, Hsi- Chung Chen, Caterina Chillotti, Sven Cichon, Cristiana Cruceanu, Piotr M. Czerski, Nina Dalkner, Alexandre Dayer, Franziska Degenhardt, Maria Del Zompo, J. Raymond DePaulo, Bruno Étain, Peter Falkai, Andreas J. Forstner, Louise Frisen, Mark A. Frye, Janice M. Fullerton, Sébastien Gard, Julie S. Garnham, Fernando S. Goes, Maria Grigoroiu-Serbanescu, Paul Grof, Ryota Hashimoto, Joanna Hauser, Urs Heilbronner, Stefan Herms, Per Hoffmann, Andrea Hofmann, Liping Hou, Yi-Hsiang Hsu, Stephane Jamain, Esther Jiménez, Jean-Pierre Kahn, Layla Kassem, Po-Hsiu Kuo, Tadafumi Kato, John Kelsoe, Sarah Kittel-Schneider, Sebastian Kliwicki, Barbara König, Ichiro Kusumi, Gonzalo Laje, Mikael Landén, Catharina Lavebratt, Marion Leboyer, Susan G. Leckband, Mario Maj, the Major Depressive Disorder Working Group of the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium, Mirko Manchia, Lina Martinsson, Michael J. McCarthy, Susan McElroy, Francesc Colom, Marina Mitjans, Francis M. Mondimore, Palmiero Monteleone, Caroline M. Nievergelt, Markus M. Nöthen, Tomas Novák, Claire O, Donovan, Norio Ozaki, Vincent Millischer, Sergi Papiol, Andrea Pfennig, Claudia Pisanu, James B. Potash, Andreas Reif, Eva Reininghaus, Guy A. Rouleau, Janusz K. Rybakowski, Martin Schalling, Peter R. Schofield, Barbara W. Schweizer, Giovanni Severino, Tatyana Shekhtman, Paul D. Shilling, Katzutaka Shimoda, Christian Simhandl, Claire M. Slaney, Alessio Squassina, Thomas Stamm, Pavla Stopkova, Fasil Tekola- Ayele, Alfonso Tortorella, Gustavo Turecki, Julia Veeh, Eduard Vieta, Stephanie H. Witt, Gloria Roberts, Peter P. Zandi, Martin Alda, Michael Bauer, Francis J. McMahon, Philip B. Mitchell, Thomas G. Schulze, Marcella Rietschel, Scott R. Clark and Bernhard T. Baun

Transforming growth factor-β in breast cancer: too much, too late

The contribution of transforming growth factor (TGF)β to breast cancer has been studied from a myriad perspectives since seminal studies more than two decades ago. Although the action of TGFβ as a canonical tumor suppressor in breast is without a doubt, there is compelling evidence that TGFβ is frequently subverted in a malignant plexus that drives breast cancer. New knowledge that TGFβ regulates the DNA damage response, which underlies cancer therapy, reveals another facet of TGFβ biology that impedes cancer control. Too much TGFβ, too late in cancer progression is the fundamental motivation for pharmaceutical inhibition

Possible Associations of NTRK2 Polymorphisms with Antidepressant Treatment Outcome: Findings from an Extended Tag SNP Approach

Background: Data from clinical studies and results from animal models suggest an involvement of the neurotrophin system in the pathology of depression and antidepressant treatment response. Genetic variations within the genes coding for the brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) and its key receptor Trkb (NTRK2) may therefore influence the response to antidepressant treatment. Methods: We performed a single and multi-marker association study with antidepressant treatment outcome in 398 depressed Caucasian inpatients participating in the Munich Antidepressant Response Signature (MARS) project. Two Caucasian replication samples (N = 249 and N = 247) were investigated, resulting in a total number of 894 patients. 18 tagging SNPs in the BDNF gene region and 64 tagging SNPs in the NTRK2 gene region were genotyped in the discovery sample; 16 nominally associated SNPs were tested in two replication samples. Results: In the discovery analysis, 7 BDNF SNPs and 9 NTRK2 SNPs were nominally associated with treatment response. Three NTRK2 SNPs (rs10868223, rs1659412 and rs11140778) also showed associations in at least one replication sample and in the combined sample with the same direction of effects ($P_{corr}$ = .018, $P_{corr}$ = .015 and $P_{corr}$ = .004, respectively). We observed an across-gene BDNF-NTRK2 SNP interaction for rs4923468 and rs1387926. No robust interaction of associated SNPs was found in an analysis of BDNF serum protein levels as a predictor for treatment outcome in a subset of 93 patients. Conclusions/Limitations: Although not all associations in the discovery analysis could be unambiguously replicated, the findings of the present study identified single nucleotide variations in the BDNF and NTRK2 genes that might be involved in antidepressant treatment outcome and that have not been previously reported in this context. These new variants need further validation in future association studies

Long-Term Alterations of Cytokines and Growth Factors Expression in Irradiated Tissues and Relation with Histological Severity Scoring

PURPOSE: Beside its efficacy in cancer treatment, radiotherapy induces degeneration of healthy tissues within the irradiated area. The aim of this study was to analyze the variations of proinflammatory (IL-1α, IL-2, IL-6, TNF-α, IFN-γ), profibrotic (TGF-β1), proangiogneic (VEGF) and stem cell mobilizing (GM-CSF) cytokines and growth factors in an animal model of radiation-induced tissue degeneration. MATERIALS AND METHODS: 24 rats were irradiated unilaterally on the hindlimb at a monodose of 30 Gy. Six weeks (n=8), 6 months (n=8) and 1 year (n=8) after irradiation the mediators expression in skin and muscle were analyzed using Western blot and the Bio-Plex® protein array (BPA) technology. Additional histological severity for fibrosis, inflammation, vascularity and cellularity alterations scoring was defined from histology and immnunohistochemistry analyses. RESULTS: A significant increase of histological severity scoring was found in irradiated tissue. Skin tissues were more radio-sensitive than muscle. A high level of TGF-β1 expression was found throughout the study and a significant relation was evidenced between TGF-β1 expression and fibrosis scoring. Irradiated tissue showed a chronic inflammation (IL-2 and TNF-α significantly increased). Moreover a persistent expression of GM-CSF and VEGF was found in all irradiated tissues. The vascular score was related to TGF-β1 expression and the cellular alterations score was significantly related with the level of IL-2, VEGF and GM-CSF. CONCLUSION: The results achieved in the present study underline the complexity and multiplicity of radio-induced alterations of cytokine network. It offers many perspectives of development, for the comprehension of the mechanisms of late injuries or for the histological and molecular evaluation of the mode of action and the efficacy of rehabilitation techniques

Elevated Plasma Alpha 1-Acid Glycoprotein Levels: Lack of Connection to Resistance to Vecuronium Blockade Induced by Anticonvulsant Therapy

This study was designed to investigate the relationships among anticonvulsant therapy, plasma alpha 1-acid glycoprotein (AAG) levels, and resistance to vecuronium blockade. Thirty-one patients scheduled for routine neurosurgery were included in the study. The patients were treated (TG; n = 20) with phenytoin (n = 15) and/or carbamazepine (n = 4) and/or phenobarbital (n = 3) for > or = 6 days or were left untreated (UG; n = 11, control group). TG patients were further assigned to one of two subgroups according to the plasma anticonvulsant level measured the day before surgery and found to be within (TGW, n = 10) or below (TGB, n = 10) the therapeutic range. Finally, the 31 patients were divided into two more groups according to their plasma AAG levels: higher than (HAAG, n = 17) or within (NAAG, n = 14) the normal range (25-94 mg dl-1). Anesthesia was induced and maintained with propofol and sufentanil. Muscle relaxation was obtained with vecuronium 0.1 mg kg-1. A train-of-four (TOF) stimulation mode at 2 Hz was applied to the ulnar nerve every 15 s, and neuromuscular transmission was assessed using a TOF-Guard accelograph monitor. Plasma AAG concentrations (means +/- SEM) were 103.7 +/- 7.6 mg dl-1 in TG, 80.7 +/- 6.7 mg dl-1 in UG, 95.9 +/- 13.2 mg dl-1 in TGW, 111.6 +/- 7.6 mg dl-1 in TGB. 114.9 +/- 7.4 mg dl-1 in HAAG, and 71.4 +/- 3.8 mg dl-1 in NAAG groups. The differences in plasma AAG concentrations between UG and TG and between HAAG and NAAG groups were statistically significant. No significant relationship was found between plasma AAG levels and phenytoin concentrations (r = -0.26). The time (mean +/- SEM) to recovery of T1 to 25% of control was significantly shorter in TG (28.2 +/- 1.4 min) than in UG (42.2 +/- 3.1 min) but did not differ significantly according to the plasma anticonvulsant level (27.3 +/- 2.0 min in TGW; 29.1 +/- 1.9 min in TGB) and the plasma AAG level 31.7 +/- 1.9 min in HAAG; 35.3 +/- 3.3 min in NAAG). The time for the TOF ratio to recover to 25% yielded similar profiles and statistical significance levels: TG, 32.9 +/- 2.2 min; UG, 51.2 +/- 4.0 min; TGW, 35.0 +/- 3.9 min; TGB, 30.7 +/- 1.8 min; HAAG, 38.1 +/- 3.1 min; NAAG, 42.0 +/- 4.1 min. We conclude that anticonvulsant therapy induces an increase in plasma AAG independently of the plasma anticonvulsant level. However, duration and recovery of vecuronium blockade do not differ according to plasma AAG levels. Consequently, elevated AAG does not contribute to the resistance to vecuronium blockade induced by anticonvulsants

Ventilatory effects of continuous epidural infusion of fentanyl.

The effects of a continuous epidural administration of fentanyl on pain and on ventilation were studied in eight patients scheduled for orthopedic surgery of the knee. In each subject, epidural fentanyl was given by a bolus dose of 1 microgram.kg-1, followed by a continuous infusion of 1 microgram.kg-1.h-1 over 18 hours. Ventilatory measurements were performed during quiet breathing and during CO2 stimulation tests before surgery. After surgery measurements were made before epidural administration of fentanyl; 1, 2, 5, 18 hours after the start of epidural fentanyl infusion; and 6 hours after its discontinuation. Adequate pain relief was achieved in all patients during fentanyl administration. No significant change in ventilation was noted during quiet breathing. The slope of the ventilatory response to CO2 (VE/PaCO2) decreased significantly from 1.46 +/- 0.2 to 0.75 +/- 0.1 L.min-1.mm Hg-1 (mean +/- SEM; P less than 0.05) one hour after the onset of fentanyl administration, and remained stable throughout the infusion. Eighteen hours after the onset of epidural fentanyl infusion, VE/PaCO2 was still 0.76 +/- 0.14 L.min-1.mm Hg-1. At the end of fentanyl administration, plasma fentanyl levels measured in six patients had progressively increased from 0.42 +/- 0.02 ng.ml one hour after the onset of the infusion to 1.54 +/- 0.19 ng.ml at the end of the infusion. These results suggest that a continuous epidural administration of fentanyl is a technique of analgesia that can provide adequate pain relief but which is associated with ventilatory depression. However, with the doses used in this study, the ventilatory depression remained moderate and of no demonstrable clinical consequence

Effects of high-frequency jet ventilation on arterial baroreflex regulation of heart rate.

Fifteen anesthetized mechanically ventilated patients recovering from multiple trauma were studied to compare the effects of high-frequency jet ventilation (HFJV) and continuous positive-pressure ventilation (CPPV) on arterial baroreflex regulation of heart rate. Systolic arterial pressure and right atrial pressure were measured using indwelling catheters. Electrocardiogram (ECG) and mean airway pressure were continuously monitored. Lung volumes were measured using two linear differential transformers mounted on thoracic and abdominal belts. Baroreflex testing was performed by sequential intravenous bolus injections of phenylephrine (200 micrograms) and nitroglycerin (200 micrograms) to raise or lower systolic arterial pressure by 20-30 Torr. Baroreflex regulation of heart rate was expressed as the slope of the regression line between R-R interval of the ECG and systolic arterial pressure. In each mode of ventilation the ventilatory settings were chosen to control mean airway pressure and arterial PCO2 (PaCO2). In HFJV a tidal volume of 159 +/- 61 ml was administered at a frequency of 320 +/- 104 breaths/min, whereas in CPPV a tidal volume of 702 +/- 201 ml was administered at a frequency of 13 +/- 2 breaths/min. Control values of systolic arterial pressure, R-R interval, mean pulmonary volume above apneic functional residual capacity, end-expiratory pulmonary volume, right atrial pressure, mean airway pressure, PaCO2, pH, PaO2, and temperature before injection of phenylephrine or nitroglycerin were comparable in HFJV and CPPV. Baroreflex regulation of heart rate after nitroglycerin injection was significantly higher in HFJV (4.1 +/- 2.8 ms/Torr) than in CPPV (1.96 +/- 1.23 ms/Torr).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS

Teaching humanitarian surgery: Filling the gap between NGO needs and subspecialized surgery through a novel inter-university certificate.

Access to surgical care is a global health burden. A broad spectrum of surgical competences is required in the humanitarian context whereas current occidental surgical training is oriented towards subspecialties. We proposed to design a course addressing the specificities of surgery in the humanitarian setting and austere environment. The novelty of the course lies in the implication of academic medical doctors alongside with surgeons working for humanitarian non-governmental organizations (NGO). The medical component of the National Defense participated regarding particular topics of war surgery. The course is aimed at trained surgeons and senior residents interested in participating to humanitarian missions. The program includes theoretical teaching on surgical knowledge and skills applied to the austere context. The course also covers non-medical aspects of humanitarian action such as international humanitarian law, logistics, disaster management and psychological support. It comprises a large-scale mass casualty exercise and a practical skills lab on surgical techniques, ultrasonography and resuscitation. Attendance to the four teaching modules, ATLS certification and succeeding final examinations provide an interuniversity certificate. 30 participants originating from 11 different countries joined the course. Various surgical backgrounds, training levels as well as humanitarian experience were represented. Feedback from the participants was solicited after each teaching module and remarks were applied to the following session. Overall participant evaluations of the first course session are presented. Teaching humanitarian surgery joining academic and field actors seems to allow filling the gap between high-income country surgical practice and the needs of the humanitarian context

A predictive index to preeclampsia before pregnancy and a primary prevention

Objective To derive a prediction index based on the most salient history, laboratory and clinical parameters for identifying women at high risk of developing preeclampsia (PE) and to suggest a primary prevention. Material and method Non-pregnant women with a history of PE (n =101) were compared to non-pregnant parous women with a history of one or more successful normotensive pregnancies (n =50) but with comparable age, gestation and parity profiles. The parameters included history and clinical examination; laboratory studies (hemostasis, coagulation, vitamins); and morphological and functional tests (cardiovascular and renal functions). Stepwise logistic regression analysis was applied to develop a three step PE prediction index based on the most discriminant parameters. Strategies to prevent PE in the high-risk group are described. Results Identification of women at high risk of PE can be done efficiently (88% sensitivity and specificity) using a predictive index based on a simple history, laboratory, clinical and functional information. Stategies to prevent PE in our high-risk group have given encouraging results during next pregnancy. Conclusion Our study gives a predictive index of PE outside of pregnancy and possibilities to do a primary prevention