International trade and the stability of food supplies in the Global South

Many countries in the Global South depend increasingly on imports to provide food for their rising populations. Trade is a key mechanism to address distributional issues, especially in countries with limited biophysical resources. In theory, by pooling the risk of crop failures via global trade, trade should stabilize food supplies. In practice, however, an over-reliance on imported food may be detrimental to domestic food stability. Here, we disentangle the role of imports from that of domestic production in countries in the Global South for three staple crops: maize, rice, and wheat. First, we use FAO data to differentiate between exposure to production variance in exporting countries, domestic production variance, and total supply variance. Next, we analyze trade relationships and assess the biophysical capacities of countries to investigate why some countries have more unstable supplies than others. We find that food imports have been a source of food supply instability—in particular for maize in Southern Africa, wheat in Central Asia, and rice more generally. But the reason that imports lead to instability is not the same across regions or crops and imports are at times necessary due to limited available water and land resources. Furthermore, the source of imports may be important in the case of co-occurring crop failures in both importing and exporting countries, or exporters with high export variance. Finally, we find that the increasing prevalence of global trade from 1985–2010 has increased exposure to food supply variance in some regions, although it has not increased exposure to supply variance in all regions. These results provide guidance for future analyses to focus on regions that are vulnerable to imported food supply disruptions of important staple crops, and inform debates about the risks associated with food trade in the Global South.EC/FP7/605728 /EU/Postdoctoral Researchers International Mobility Experience/ P.R.I.M.E.DFG, 414044773, Open Access Publizieren 2019 - 2020 / Technische Universität Berli

Teleconnected food supply shocks

The 2008–2010 food crisis might have been a harbinger of fundamental climate-induced food crises with geopolitical implications. Heat-wave-induced yield losses in Russia and resulting export restrictions led to increases in market prices for wheat across the Middle East, likely contributing to the Arab Spring. With ongoing climate change, temperatures and temperature variability will rise, leading to higher uncertainty in yields for major nutritional crops. Here we investigate which countries are most vulnerable to teleconnected supply-shocks, i.e. where diets strongly rely on the import of wheat, maize, or rice, and where a large share of the population is living in poverty. We find that the Middle East is most sensitive to teleconnected supply shocks in wheat, Central America to supply shocks in maize, and Western Africa to supply shocks in rice. Weighing with poverty levels, Sub-Saharan Africa is most affected. Altogether, a simultaneous 10% reduction in exports of wheat, rice, and maize would reduce caloric intake of 55 million people living in poverty by about 5%. Export bans in major producing regions would put up to 200 million people below the poverty line at risk, 90% of which live in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our results suggest that a region-specific combination of national increases in agricultural productivity and diversification of trade partners and diets can effectively decrease future food security risks

Assessing human and environmental pressures of global land-use change 2000-2010

Global land is turning into an increasingly scarce resource. We here present a comprehensive assessment of co-occuring land-use change from 2000 until 2010, compiling existing spatially explicit data sources for different land uses, and building on a rich literature addressing specific land-use changes in all world regions. This review systematically categorizes patterns of land use, including regional urbanization and agricultural expansion but also globally telecoupled land-use change for all world regions. Managing land-use change patterns across the globe requires global governance. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of the extent and density of multiple drivers and impacts of land-use change. We combine and reanalyze spatially explicit data of global land-use change between 2000 and 2010 for population, livestock, cropland, terrestrial carbon and biodiversity. We find pervasive pressure on biodiversity but varying patterns of gross land-use changes across world regions. Our findings enable a classification of land-use patterns into three types. The 'consumers' type, displayed in Europe and North America, features high land footprints, reduced direct human pressures due to intensification of agriculture, and increased reliance on imports, enabling a partial recovery of terrestrial carbon and reducing pressure on biodiversity. In the 'producer' type, most clearly epitomized by Latin America, telecoupled land-use links drive biodiversity and carbon loss. In the 'mover' type, we find strong direct domestic pressures, but with a wide variety of outcomes, ranging from a concurrent expansion of population, livestock and croplands in Sub-Saharan Africa at the cost of natural habitats to strong pressure on cropland by urbanization in Eastern Asia. In addition, anthropogenic climate change has already left a distinct footprint on global land-use change. Our data- and literature-based assessment reveals region-specific opportunities for managing global land-use change. © 2019 The Author(s)

Factors influencing obesogenic behaviours of adolescent girls and women in low- and middle-income countries: A qualitative evidence synthesis

This systematic review synthesized the qualitative evidence on factors influencing obesogenic behaviours in adolescent girls and women of reproductive age in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This qualitative evidence synthesis followed the framework synthesis approach to extract, analyse and synthesize data. Electronic searches were conducted in the Web of Science, SCOPUS, CABI Abstracts, MEDLINE, PsycINFO and Google Scholar. Studies were eligible if they were conducted in LMICs, of qualitative nature, and reported obesogenic behaviours of female adolescents (10-19 years of age) or women of reproductive age (15-49 years of age). The review resulted in 71 included studies from 27 different countries. Thirty-two studies focused on dietary behaviours, 17 on physical activity and 22 on both behaviours. Gender norms and failures to recognize the importance of healthy behaviours across the life cycle were important factors. The abundance and promotion of affordable but unhealthy food, food safety concerns, taste preferences and social desirability of foods drive consumption of unhealthy foods. Busy lives and limited exercise spaces keep girls and women from being physically active. Obesogenic behaviours of adolescent girls and women of reproductive age are influenced by factors at individual, social, physical and environmental levels and require diverse solutions to address these factors in LMICs

Urbanisierung und Ernährungssysteme

Food systems are shaped by global change. Climate change adversely affects yields and already strained resources necessary for food production. Economic and demographic development influence consumer preferences and create unprecedented demands, transforming the entire food value chain. Understanding how global change drivers are influencing food systems is essential in finding solutions for sustainably providing food for nine billion people. Urbanization is one of these defining drivers of food system transitions. Yet, its effects have not been sufficiently explored. This dissertation contributes to a better understanding of the role of urbanization by investigating the implications of two dimensions of urbanization on two dimensions of the food system: the spatial dimension and urban living on the one hand, and the food production and food consumption activities on the other hand. Specifically, it addresses two overarching research questions in two separate parts: (i) How is urban area expansion affecting food production activities? (ii) How is urbanization and associated urban living affecting food consumption patterns? The first part of this dissertation addresses the first question and analyzes the implications of the spatial dimension of urbanization on food production activities. Chapter 2 sets the stage with a comprehensive assessment of the extent and density of multiple drivers and impacts of land use change. It reveals significant co-occurrences of expanding human activities and pervasive pressure on biodiversity. Further, it highlights the need for a more detailed understanding of competing land use dynamics driven by human activities. Chapter 3 examines the implications of urban areas expansion on croplands at the global level. It shows that while global cropland losses are marginal, they are very relevant in some of the rapidly urbanizing regions of Africa and Asia. It also finds that the croplands surrounding urban areas are almost twice as productive as the remaining croplands. The implications at the local level are far-reaching, affecting livelihoods and ultimately food security. In this context, some countries are likely to lose their food self-sufficiency. Chapter 4 supplements the earlier findings and explores the risks associated with high import dependencies on key staple crops for developing countries. It investigates how high dependency on food imports could potentially affect the calorie supply in developing countries. The second part of the dissertation investigates the second question and explores how urbanization and associated urban living is affecting food consumption patterns. Chapter 5 analyzes the empirical relationships between urban development and packaged food, processed food, and food away from home consumption at different spatial scales. The analysis reveals that the level of urban development affects the consumption of packaged foods at the country level. Further, it shows variations in processed food and food away from home consumption at different levels of urban development within India. While income is still the most important driver for changing food consumption, the findings also identify a significant urban effect on diets. The concluding chapter 6 discusses the broader implications and significance of the findings of this dissertation. In particular, it is discussed how the findings affect food system outcomes, namely food security and livelihoods. Chapter 6 also highlights potential avenues for future research.Das Ernährungssystem wird fundamental von den Veränderungsprozessen des globalen Wandels beeinflusst. Der Klimawandel etwa hat negative Folgen für die weltweiten Ernteerträge und wirkt sich bereits jetzt auf dringend benötigte Ressourcen zur Nahrungsmittelproduktion aus. Die wirtschaftliche und demographische Entwicklung beeinflusst das Konsumverhalten der Menschen und sorgt für eine rasant steigende Nachfrage nach Lebensmitteln. Es ist essentiell zu verstehen, wie die Treiber der globalen Veränderung das Ernährungssystem beeinflussen, um Lösungen für eine nachhaltige Versorgung mit Lebensmitteln für neun Milliarden Menschen zu finden. Einer der wichtigsten Treiber hinter dem globalen Wandel ist die Urbanisierung. Bisher sind deren Effekte auf Ernährungssysteme noch nicht hinreichend erforscht. Diese Dissertation leistet einen Beitrag zum besseren Verständnis der Rolle der Urbanisierung, indem sie die Auswirkungen von zwei Aspekten der Urbanisierung auf zwei Aspekte des Ernährungssystems untersucht: die räumliche Dimension und das urbane Leben auf der einen und die Nahrungsmittelproduktion und der Nahrungsmittelverbrauch auf der anderen Seite. Zwei umfassende Forschungsfragen werden in jeweils einem Teil der Dissertation bearbeitet. Die erste Frage lautet, wie die räumliche Expansion der urbanen Gebiete die Nahrungsmittelproduktion beeinflusst. Die zweite Frage ist, wie sich die Urbanisierung und das damit verbundene urbane Leben auf die Essgewohnheiten auswirken. Der erste Teil der Dissertation befasst sich mit der ersten Frage. Mit einer umfangreichen räumlichen Analyse der Intensitäten verschiedener Landnutzungsdynamiken schafft Kapitel zwei die Voraussetzungen dafür. Es zeigt insbesondere Zusammenhänge zwischen dem sich ausdehnenden menschlichen Handeln und dem allgegenwärtigen Druck auf die Biodiversität. Des Weiteren unterstreicht es die Notwendigkeit eines besseren Verständnisses der konkurrierenden Landnutzungsdynamiken, die aus menschlichem Handeln resultieren. Kapitel drei untersucht die Auswirkungen der Expansion urbaner Gebiete auf Ackerflächen in einem globalen Zusammenhang. Es wird deutlich, dass die Verluste an Ackerflächen zwar global gesehen marginal sind. Gleichzeitig sind sie aber sehr produktiv und besonders relevant in Regionen mit schnell expandierenden urbanen Gebieten in Asien und Afrika. Die Auswirkungen sind auf lokaler Ebene weitreichend und betreffen die Lebensgrundlage und letztlich die Nahrungsmittelsicherheit. In diesem Zusammenhang ist es wahrscheinlich, dass einige Länder sich in Zukunft nicht mehr ausreichend selber mit Lebensmitteln versorgen können. Kapitel vier ergänzt die bisherigen Erkenntnisse und beleuchtet die Risiken von Importabhängigkeiten für Entwicklungsländer. Es wird geprüft, wie hohe Abhängigkeiten von Nahrungsmittelimporten im Falle von Angebotsschocks möglicherweise die Kalorienversorgung in diesen Ländern beeinflussen könnte. Der zweite Teil der Dissertation untersucht die zweite Frage – wie sich die Urbanisierung und damit verbunden das urbane Leben auf die Gewohnheiten des Nahrungsmittelkonsums auswirken. Kapitel fünf analysiert die empirischen Zusammenhänge zwischen urbaner Entwicklung und verpackten Lebensmitteln, verarbeiteten Lebensmitteln und dem Konsum von Lebensmitteln außerhalb der eigenen vier Wände auf verschiedenen räumlichen Skalen. Die Analyse zeigt, dass das Level der urbanen Entwicklung den Konsum von verpackten Lebensmitteln auf dem Land beeinflusst. Außerdem wird deutlich, dass es auf verschiedenen Ebenen der urbanen Entwicklung in Indien Variationen des Konsums von verarbeiteten Lebensmitteln und des Konsums von Lebensmitteln außer Haus gibt. Während das Einkommen immer noch der wichtigste Treiber für veränderte Essgewohnheiten ist, zeigen die Ergebnisse auch einen signifikanten urbanen Einfluss auf die Ernährung. Das abschließende Kapitel sechs diskutiert die breiteren Auswirkungen und die Signifikanz der vorliegenden Dissertation. Besonderes Augenmerk liegt dabei auf der Diskussion, wie die Ergebnisse die Literatur zu Nahrungsmittelsystemen unter dem Einfluss des globalen Wandels komplementiert. Kapitel sechs beleuchtet außerdem mögliche Wege für weitere Forschungsvorhaben

Can the Land Use Master Plan Control Urban Expansion and Protect Farmland in China? A Case Study of Nanjing

Urbanization represents a challenge for plans aimed at controlling urban expansion and protecting farmland, such as the land use master plan (LUMP) instituted by the Chinese national government. This paper studies the effectiveness of such top–down plans under the authoritarian regime through the case study of Nanjing. In contrast to previous studies that compare actual and planned land-use maps, we compare actual and planned land-use patterns. We use land-use change data to examine spatio-temporal land-use change between the years 1997 and 2014. The results indicate that the actual amount of urban-rural built-up land exceeded planned regulatory amount by 50,185 ha and the total farmland was 70,541 ha less than the target outlined in the LUMP (1997–2010). Based on these results, and the fact that the allowed total urban-rural built-up land had already been surpassed in 2014, it is to be expected that the target of farmland protection outlined in the LUMP (2006–2020) will be broken, signaling the ineffectiveness of the plan to control urban expansion and protect farmland. Plan-led developments (e.g., new towns, development zones) and market forces (e.g., housing market, foreign direct investment) explain these developments. This study indicates that when cities embrace “growth-led” development and entrepreneurial governance, the ability of plans to control urban expansion and protect farmland is severely limited.</p