Bounded Model Checking for Probabilistic Programs

In this paper we investigate the applicability of standard model checking approaches to verifying properties in probabilistic programming. As the operational model for a standard probabilistic program is a potentially infinite parametric Markov decision process, no direct adaption of existing techniques is possible. Therefore, we propose an on-the-fly approach where the operational model is successively created and verified via a step-wise execution of the program. This approach enables to take key features of many probabilistic programs into account: nondeterminism and conditioning. We discuss the restrictions and demonstrate the scalability on several benchmarks

Global psychotropic medicine consumption in 65 countries and regions from 2008 to 2019

Background: The WHO Comprehensive Mental Health Action Plan 2013–2030 encourages routine collection and reporting of a set of essential mental health indicators, including the availability of psychotropic medicines. The global monitoring of country-level psychotropic medicine consumption trends can provide information on the extent of the availability of psychotropic medicines. The primary objective of this study was to investigate global trends in psychotropic medicines consumption from 2008 to 2019 across 65 countries and regions according to country income level and geographical region. // Methods: In this longitudinal trends study, we used pharmaceutical sales data from the IQVIA-Multinational Integrated Data Analysis System (IQVIA-MIDAS). We analysed monthly sales data of psychotropic medicines between Jan 1, 2008, and Dec 31, 2019. Total psychotropic medicine consumption included sales of antidepressants, antipsychotics, tranquilisers, sedatives or hypnotics, and mood stabilisers. Population estimates of each country or region (eight lower-middle-income countries, 19 upper-middle-income countries, and 38 high-income countries) were based on the UN World Population Prospects 2019 report. Average annual sales trends of psychotropic medicines, expressed as defined daily dose (DDD) per 1000 inhabitants per day, were estimated using a random-effects model adjusted for income level and region. Relative changes in the annual consumption of psychotropic medicines by income, expressed as DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day, were assessed as percentage change for each medicine class. // Findings: Psychotropic medicine sales increased from 28·54 DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day in 2008 to 34·77 DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day in 2019, corresponding to a 4·08% (95% CI 2·96–5·21) relative average increase annually. The absolute annual increase was greater in high-income countries (3·31 DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day, 95% CI 3·01–3·61) compared with upper-middle-income countries (1·94 DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day, 1·45–2·44) and low-middle-income countries (0·88 DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day, 0·62–1·13; p<0·0001). The relative average annual increase in psychotropic medicine sales from 2008 to 2019 was greater in upper-middle-income countries (7·88%, 95% CI 6·99–8·77) than in lower-middle-income countries (2·90%, 2·40–3·39) and high-income countries (1·02%, 0·80–1·24). In 2019, the regional consumption of psychotropic medicines varied greatly, with the highest sales of all psychotropic medicine classes reported in northern America (167·54 DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day) and lowest sales reported in Asia (5·59 DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day). 17 countries had very low consumption of psychotropic medicines in 2019, including high-income countries and countries with a high prevalence of mental disorders. // Interpretation: The consumption of psychotropic medicines has increased over a 12-year period, and although the absolute growth rate was highest in high-income countries, the relative growth is highest in middle-income countries and especially upper-middle-income countries. Disparities in psychotropic medicine consumption of countries can only partly be explained by geographical location and income. Greater efforts are needed to increase the availability of psychotropic medicines in countries with very low consumption, which is probably due to financial or cultural reasons as well as scarcity of trained health-care professionals to prescribe psychotropic medicines

Trends in lipid-modifying agent use in 83 countries

Background and aims: Lipid-modifying agents (LMAs) are increasingly used to reduce lipid levels and prevent cardiovascular events but the magnitude of their consumption in different world regions is unknown. We aimed to describe recent global trends in LMA consumption and to explore the relationship between country-level LMA consumption and cholesterol concentrations. / Methods: This cross-sectional and ecological study used monthly pharmaceutical sales data from January 2008 to December 2018 for 83 countries from the IQVIA Multinational Integrated Data Analysis System and total and non-high-density lipoprotein (non-HDL) cholesterol concentrations from the NCD Risk Factor Collaboration. Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) was used to assess changes in LMA consumption over time. / Results: From 2008 to 2018, use of LMAs increased from 7,468 to 11,197 standard units per 1000 inhabitants per year (CAGR 4.13%). An estimated 173 million people used LMAs in 2018. Statins were the most used class of LMA and their market share increased in 75% of countries between 2008 and 2018. From 2013 to 2018, consumption of low-density lipoprotein lowering therapies increased (statins 3.99%; ezetimibe 4.01%; proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitors 104.47%). Limited evidence supports a clear relationship between country-level changes in LMA consumption and mean total and non-HDL cholesterol concentrations in 2008 versus 2018. / Conclusions: Since 2008, global access to LMAs, especially statins, has improved. In line with international lipid guideline recommendations, recent trends indicate growth in the use of statins, ezetimibe, and PCSK9 inhibitors. Country-level patterns of LMA use and total and non-HDL cholesterol varied considerably

Global trends in symptomatic medication use against dementia in 66 countries/regions from 2008 to 2018

Background and purpose: The aim was to determine trends and patterns of symptomatic medication used against dementia in 66 countries and regions. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study that used the wholesale data from the IQVIA Multinational Integrated Data Analysis System database. Sale data for symptomatic medication against dementia from 66 countries and regions from 2008 to 2018 were analysed and stratified by income level (low/middle-income countries [LMICs], n = 27; high-income countries [HICs], n = 37; regions, n = 2). The medication use volume was estimated by defined daily dose (DDD) per 1000 inhabitants per day (World Health Organization DDD harmonized the size, strength and form of each pack and reflects average dosing). Changes in medication use over time were quantified as percentage changes in compound annual growth rates (CAGRs). Results: Total symptomatic medication against dementia sales increased from 0.85 to 1.33 DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day between 2008 and 2018 (LMICs 0.094–0.396; HICs 3.88–5.04), which is an increase of CAGR of 4.53% per year. The increase was mainly driven by the LMICs (CAGR = 15.42%) in comparison to the HICs (CAGR = 2.65%). The overall medication use from 2008 to 2018 increased for all four agents: memantine (CAGR = 8.51%), rivastigmine (CAGR = 6.91%), donepezil (CAGR = 2.72%) and galantamine (CAGR = 0.695%). In 2018, the most commonly used medication globally was donepezil, contributing to 49.8% of total use volume, followed by memantine (32.7%), rivastigmine (11.24%) and galantamine (6.36%). Conclusion: There was an increasing trend in the use of symptomatic medications against dementia globally, but the use remained low in LMICs. Interventions may be needed to support the medication use in some countries

Global, regional, and national trends in opioid analgesic consumption from 2015 to 2019: a longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have reported an extremely unbalanced global access to opioid analgesics. We aimed to determine contemporary trends and patterns of opioid analgesic consumption at the global, regional, and national levels. METHODS: We analysed the global pharmaceutical sales data of 66 countries or regions from the IQVIA-Multinational Integrated Data Analysis System database on opioid analgesics between 2015 and 2019. Opioid analgesic consumption was measured in milligram morphine equivalent per 1000 inhabitants per day (MME per 1000/day). The global, regional, and national trend changes were estimated using linear regressions. Factors associated with consumption patterns and trend changes were explored in multivariable linear regression analyses. FINDINGS: Overall opioid analgesic sales in the 66 countries or regions increased from 27·52 MME per 1000/day (16·63-45·54) in 2015 to 29·51 MME per 1000/day (17·85-48·79) in 2019 (difference per year 3·96%, 95% CI 0·26 to 7·80). Sales reduced yearly in North America (-12·84%; 95% CI -15·34 to -10·27) and Oceania (-2·96%; -4·20 to -1·70); increased in South America (28·69%; 7·18 to 54·53), eastern Europe (7·68%; 3·99 to 11·49), Asia (5·74%; 0·61 to 11·14), and western and central Europe (1·64%; 0·52 to 2·78); and did not differ in Africa or central America and the Caribbean. The global opioid consumption patterns were associated with country-level Human Development Index (p=0·040), cancer death rate excluding leukaemia (p=0·0072), and geographical location (p<0·0001). In 2019, opioid analgesic consumption ranged from 0·01 MME per 1000/day to 5·40 MME per 1000/day in the 17 countries and regions in the lowest consumption quartile, despite high income levels and cancer death rates in some of them. INTERPRETATION: Global opioid analgesic consumption increased from 2015 to 2019. The trend changes were distinctive across regions, which could reflect the different actions in response to known issues of opioid use and misuse. Disparities in opioid analgesic consumption remained, indicating potential inadequate access to essential pain relief in countries with low consumption. FUNDING: None

Application of Healthcare 'Big Data' in CNS Drug Research: The Example of the Neurological and mental health Global Epidemiology Network (NeuroGEN)

Neurological and psychiatric (mental health) disorders have a large impact on health burden globally. Cognitive disorders (including dementia) and stroke are leading causes of disability. Mental health disorders, including depression, contribute up to one-third of total years lived with disability. The Neurological and mental health Global Epidemiology Network (NeuroGEN) is an international multi-database network that harnesses administrative and electronic medical records from Australia, Asia, Europe and North America. Using these databases NeuroGEN will investigate medication use and health outcomes in neurological and mental health disorders. A key objective of NeuroGEN is to facilitate high-quality observational studies to address evidence-practice gaps where randomized controlled trials do not provide sufficient information on medication benefits and risks that is specific to vulnerable population groups. International multi-database research facilitates comparisons across geographical areas and jurisdictions, increases statistical power to investigate small subpopulations or rare outcomes, permits early post-approval assessment of safety and effectiveness, and increases generalisability of results. Through bringing together international researchers in pharmacoepidemiology, NeuroGEN has the potential to be paradigm-changing for observational research to inform evidence-based prescribing. The first focus of NeuroGEN will be to address evidence-gaps in the treatment of chronic comorbidities in people with dementia

Planetary population synthesis

In stellar astrophysics, the technique of population synthesis has been successfully used for several decades. For planets, it is in contrast still a young method which only became important in recent years because of the rapid increase of the number of known extrasolar planets, and the associated growth of statistical observational constraints. With planetary population synthesis, the theory of planet formation and evolution can be put to the test against these constraints. In this review of planetary population synthesis, we first briefly list key observational constraints. Then, the work flow in the method and its two main components are presented, namely global end-to-end models that predict planetary system properties directly from protoplanetary disk properties and probability distributions for these initial conditions. An overview of various population synthesis models in the literature is given. The sub-models for the physical processes considered in global models are described: the evolution of the protoplanetary disk, the planets' accretion of solids and gas, orbital migration, and N-body interactions among concurrently growing protoplanets. Next, typical population synthesis results are illustrated in the form of new syntheses obtained with the latest generation of the Bern model. Planetary formation tracks, the distribution of planets in the mass-distance and radius-distance plane, the planetary mass function, and the distributions of planetary radii, semimajor axes, and luminosities are shown, linked to underlying physical processes, and compared with their observational counterparts. We finish by highlighting the most important predictions made by population synthesis models and discuss the lessons learned from these predictions - both those later observationally confirmed and those rejected.Comment: 47 pages, 12 figures. Invited review accepted for publication in the 'Handbook of Exoplanets', planet formation section, section editor: Ralph Pudritz, Springer reference works, Juan Antonio Belmonte and Hans Deeg, Ed

Circumstellar disks and planets. Science cases for next-generation optical/infrared long-baseline interferometers

We present a review of the interplay between the evolution of circumstellar disks and the formation of planets, both from the perspective of theoretical models and dedicated observations. Based on this, we identify and discuss fundamental questions concerning the formation and evolution of circumstellar disks and planets which can be addressed in the near future with optical and infrared long-baseline interferometers. Furthermore, the importance of complementary observations with long-baseline (sub)millimeter interferometers and high-sensitivity infrared observatories is outlined.Comment: 83 pages; Accepted for publication in "Astronomy and Astrophysics Review"; The final publication is available at http://www.springerlink.co

Performance of the CMS Cathode Strip Chambers with Cosmic Rays

The Cathode Strip Chambers (CSCs) constitute the primary muon tracking device in the CMS endcaps. Their performance has been evaluated using data taken during a cosmic ray run in fall 2008. Measured noise levels are low, with the number of noisy channels well below 1%. Coordinate resolution was measured for all types of chambers, and fall in the range 47 microns to 243 microns. The efficiencies for local charged track triggers, for hit and for segments reconstruction were measured, and are above 99%. The timing resolution per layer is approximately 5 ns